Ask the Experts

General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: nyc1347 on December 24, 2009, 05:22:15 PM

Title: FG Race 8 12-26
Post by: nyc1347 on December 24, 2009, 05:22:15 PM
in my opinion lookin like a great race to wager and has potential value! lets run em dooooown:


Success Success  -  horse actually looks like hes slowly going forward again.  worst efforts are getting better (10, 7, 5).. other efforts are getting better (6, 3.75, 3.5).. and i think he has a good shot to run better than a 3.5 after the off effort and 6 weeks off.  with his style of running should save ground too so that may very well be worth another point in favor!
 
Credit Only -  has a new turf top last out but a backwards move off that new top effort.  margolis clearly on fire here at FG but with only one top competitive effort this one would need a new top to be a winner.

Kissin Child -  bounced only 3 points off that 3 with 9 days rest and almost came back to a top last out in the slop.  has time off and could def run another 3 but probably at the best.  just like the 2 horse it wouldnt be good enough to win here unless it ran better than it has ever done.  thoro stats say %71 chance to pair or an off effort.. dont like that.

General quarters -  according to his numbers he would need to run a top effort JUST to be competitive!  if not he will be no where in sight and at 8/5 u can have him!

Citizen -  YUCK! out of form and i dont kno what this thing is doing

Discreet Street - way too slow in here for my taste

Tempo Five -  nice number power here but that last effort hes never done before.  inclined to think he will bounce pretty good here.  off only 30 days, will lose ground too and co-highweight.  



all in all:   success succes is the only horse i see moving forward and backing up those top efforts with healthy off races.  will save ground,  6-1 ML and 6 weeks off.. dont think u can go wrong with that!  and the 2-3 range would be a really good number in here as well!  all positives to me GOOD LUCK!