Don\'t know if he can get 1 1/4 but I do know he is the fastest 3 yr old in the land. The question becomes what # would it take in his next race for him to be a bet on Derby day? I think that # is a 3-4. If he x\'s completely, there is a smaller chance that he will return to his top but if he runs a 3-4, it will show that he is healthy and will probably take dead aim at the -2 in the Derby. You don\'t ever want to leave out the fastest horse in the Derby.
Chris: Minister\'s Wild Cat is a little too slow but if he is 12-1 or more I will key him.
I am not crazy about DD\'s pattern as TG is but if he is going to fire then this is the race he will fire but he can go to a 0 and still finish out of the money. Not a bet for me.
The ROTW really looks like a classic condition play to me. For all the reasons in my previous post regarding MWC I think he has a good chance to jump to a winning level.
All the faster favorites have questionable lines and/or are very likely to lose significant ground:
- Kafwain: Much the fastest but could be EOL and is likely to lose ground.
- Buddy Gil: Could react to paired big jump (although the Mullins factor is in play)
- Domestic Dispute: Has a nice line but he is likely to lose a lot of ground (see my previous post)
- ATS: Looks to have been rushed to the Derby. May have another good race left in him but he also may be ready to X. The running style will also play against him at SA as he is likely to lose ground and/or have traffic problems.
- Logician: Could react to big jump in last.
Other than MWC, only Ocean Terrace has a strong line going in and he is slightly slower than MWC and much less explosive IMO (for the reasons I brought up in the other post).
So I think MWC is the obvious key at anything near the morning line (and with the hype around ATS and the Baffert Factor with Kafwain and DD and the recent victories for OT and BG, 10/1 is not out of the question for MWC). One of the other faster horses is likely to run back to its top but as long as it is not Kafwain then MWC can win this with a good trip and a 3-4 point jump. I seldom play a horse to make that sort of a move but I very seldom find one that is as likely to jump as this one.
As for the Derby - All the Drysdale final-Derby-prep-jumpers regressed after their jumps(FuPeg only slightly) so I don\'t see MWC as the Derby winner even if he runs big on Saturday. I agree with TGJB that DD looks like the best Derby prospect in here assuming he moves forward, which he could do and still lose on Saturday due to ground loss. Since I already have a future book play on him, I would like to see him head into the Derby off a good effort because Empire Maker is going to be tough be beat on the first Saturday in May.
Good luck to everyone.
Chris
Hey Guys, I must disagree on a couple of your observations. Chris, I don\'t see MWC line as explosive at all, to me the line is flat, the bi is also a bad sign. This type of line doesn\'t excite me at all. OPM I don\'t envision any # that would make me want to play Kafwain off the last two. I love DD\'s line and I also give OT a shot. In regards to OT, the new top is coming. I see the first 3 races as sort of conditioning with the big 2-4 pts of development on trhe horizon. I will use those 2 in the pk3, as well as ex box and a win bet when I see the odds. How about the ill derby/avenuta? The favorites are extremely vulnerable in the ILL derby
Looks like an interesting betting race. Basically Logician and Domestic Dispute are just as fast as the shorter priced Buddy Gill and AtswhatI\'mtalkinabout and both of the shorter priced horses have lines that could go south here.
Looking ahead, if Ats runs big here I would guess that would finish him off for the Derby and the same probably goes for BGil.
Unfortunately the longer priced horses got the worst of it in the draw. Logician comes in on a tight schedule but at a price I\'ll take him over the shorties. DD has only the draw to contend with since his line is very good.
Kafwain is obviously fastest and this should be within his range distance-wise. If it holds up that he\'s shorter than BGill and Ats he\'s usable here.
I don\'t like Minister\'s Wildcat and I think Ocean Terrace will be overbet.
So I will go with Kafwain, DD and Logician - if I stretch out more in tris I will use OT and Indian Whatever a little.
Good luck. HP
Kafwain is obviously fastest and this should be within his range distance-wise. If it holds up that he\'s \"shorter\" than BGill and Ats he\'s usable here.
I meant if he\'s longer.
In terms of a piece at a big price, I agree that the post is problematical, but Logician may run a little better when he\'s on the outside, and to me his breeding is a slight plus in the context of this field. I think the fact that he is a Cal bred which was purchased for $520k at the Kee 2 yr old sale is a very slight plus, and despite an excellent trainer his jockey probably insures that the odds will be even more generous than the ML. The biggest problem I see, & the one which makes it very tough to be too agressive at the windows, is that there are so many other fast ones in the race. As one of my clever comrades keeps reminding me, the old trainers\' adage that it makes a lot more sense to take a shot against one supposed stickout than 4 or 5 fast horses also applies to handicapping.
My 2cents;
Based on experience and consistently superior figs, Kafwain looks like a easy winner to me and, if 3-1+, an excellent value. Most of the contenders have been running wide recently but I think PatV will be able handle any traffic jams. Also, although I gave up predicting bounces long ago, it look like several of Kafwain\'s competitors are candidates to bounce. Good luck. Asfufh