Now that I have finally gotten all the egg off my face and my size 11 1/2 shoe out of my mouth its time to get back horse racing?
Buddy Gill is very interesting in this weeks Santa Anita Derby. In the race down the hill on turf, prior to the San Felipe, he ran a very competitive 2 1/2. Because of the significant forward move that he made and because it was on turf, not dirt, horseplayers let him slide off in the San Felipe at 9-1.
He seems to fit a pattern we have discussed here before where some 3 YO horses who figure to bounce in the spring just do not do so. This horse has good tactical speed, won inspite of a very troubled trip and figures to be a decent price again.
The fact that he recently switched to a trainer who seems to have discovered the necessary magic formula is also part of the equation.
We will need to see the TG numbers before a reliable decision can be made but Buddy Gill could be dangerous again.
Buddy won\'t be a price, he\'s 2nd fav to Atswhat in the ML at 5/2, Kafwain at 4-1, Logician + Domestic at 15-1 might be the value plays.
Can\'t resist on this -- Whoever made Domestic Dispute 15:1 ML is probably dying to push up the horse\'s odds so that he can be him. If this horse is more than 6:1 I will be very very surprised. That said, he probably will be some value. BG and KW look to be at the end of the line for awhile. And I\'m not real clear on how to read AWITA\'s line, but he will be overbet as well.
Welcome back dpatent. You shouldn\'t stay away so long.
When I mentioned that Buddy Gil may be a price again what I meant was he may be about 7/2 or 4-1 coming off the win in the Prep (think Free House). I think that a lot of players will read into his line that he is at the end of the line. However, as I said that has not always been the case over the last few years with several of these 3YO. This is horse who will definitely be out to win now, AWITA may be thinking Derby.
I\'m not committing myself to playing him I\'m just saying he will be an interesting proposition in a very good betting race!!
You can\'t make any judgements until you see the TG numbers.
Silver,
Thanks for the welcome. Now that the Derby is coming up there should be some good fodder for discussion.
I don\'t know what the TG Sheets will show on BG, nor do I know what Rag. says he ran in the San Felipe, but the number he ran in the down-the-hill race on Ragozin was enough to kill him for awhile. He probably bounced 3-5 points in the San Felipe and I would expect further regression in this race -- again, on Ragozin sheets. He may have a beautiful pattern on TG for all I know. I will not, however, wait until I see TG sheets before making my final judgment on him -- for obvious reasons. Good luck.
my guess on approximate odds
Ats 9/5
Kaf 3-1
OT, DD, and MWC all from 6-1 to 8-1
BG 10-1
If you don\'t like the favorites, it will be a great betting race. Even if you do like the favorite, ATS isn\'t a bad key at 9/5. Should be a great race.
Hello Mr. Patent
I was thinking Domestic Dispute might be playable in the SA Derby and also was shocked by the morning line. However, the outside post is an obvious concern and given this Baffert quote, doubly so -
Baffert said the outside post should suit Domestic Dispute\'s running style because he likes to \"be in the clear.\" Baffert said \"we need to let him run earlier.\"
I interpret this to mean that DD may be pressing the pace rather than dropping back this time which means that there is a good chance that he will be caught 3 or 4 wide on the first turn. I also interpret this to mean that they want to keep him outside \"in the clear\" so he will probably stay out there on the second turn as well.
I don\'t think he is 3 or 4 pts better than the field and that is what he needs to be to win with such a trip so I will probably look elsewhere.
Good luck. It should be a interesting betting race.
Chris
David--
Fodder indeed. From what I can tell from the encoded messages on the Rag board there are some serious differences between us and them for the SA Derby. Buddy Gill looks a lot different, as you will see in ROTW-- where his pattern is negative on Rag it\'s about neutral on ours (considering the trainer switch two back), which given the probable ground loss scenario makes him a strong contender.
I also have seen the numbers for the Derby preps that Friedman has been giving away free in the Thoroughbred Times, and there are some differences with other Derby contenders as well, although they are generally not extreme, from what I can tell.
Of course, they haven\'t run the Wood yet.
I wouldn\'t be so quick to predict a bounce. Mullins is the Left Coast\'s version of Mark Shuman. He may have one more bullet left.
Cat
TGJB I\'m glad you wrote the previous post because after David enlightened me on how Buddy Gil looked on Rags I almost couldn\'t believe it. The following from an encrypted post is what I think??? Buddy Gil looks like on the Rags.
1\"..5+ is regressing again
Now the reason I was glad you posted first was because having David and Marc and some of the other insightful handicappers posting on this Board is good for everyone. The last thing I wanted to do was go on the attack and make David feel as though he had to defend Rags numbers. He doesn\'t have to defend his handicapping position, his analysis may prove to be very solid. We will know very soon won\'t we.
This is what I can\'t believe about the numbers and running line of Buddy Gil as produced by Rags. The San Felipe was considered to be the best and deepest field of all the Derby Preps to date(Fla Derby was not deep). So how in the world does Rags have a horse who wins regress over four points. Was the turf number that wrong!!
I just have a hard time figuring this kind of thing out. This horse had 3W ground loss on both turns carried 119 pounds encountered serious traffic trouble coming off the turn and down through the lane, REGRESSED OVER 4 POINTS AND STILL WON!!!! What?????
Forget Empire Maker if this horse moves forward again, at least according to Rags, he is a freak.
Now if Buddy Gil is up the track then who is right, Rags who says he is already in a state of regression, TG who may say he bounced after pairing up big tops. No one will really know for sure.
One thing for people to consider is his pedigree. The sire Eastern Echo was an old Rokeby Stable runner who busted out of the box with big 5 furlong sprint win at Saratoga in a baby race. He was injured and did not return. His dam is the blue hen mare Wild Applause who also has Yell in the Ashland Stakes on Sat. Wild Applause also threw Roar and another 6 1/2 furlong track record settor at CD owned by Dogwood whose name slips my mind and many others. The point is this is a blue chip quality pedigree on top but it mostly favors speed. On the bottom side the dam sire is For Really who I only remember as a New York based 2YO sprinter. Where\'s the stamina???
Back to my main point, if Friedman and company want me to believe that 3 Year Olds who are in a developing state actually regress 4 points and win a major Ky Derby Prep while carrying weight, incurring ground loss and traffic trouble, well sorry April Fools Day has already come and gone for this year.
Take that from someone who knows.
Post Edited (04-04-03 11:02)
Silver Charm wrote that Eastern Echo was injured after a 5F sprint at Saratoga and did not return.
While he may not have returned to Saratoga he did return to the races and won a graded stakes at Belmont in the fall of his 2YO season.
Sigh. One of the most consistently mind-boggling things about the whole TG vs. Ragozin dialogue, to me and others, is the insistence of some that the best way to prove one set of numbers better or worse is to look at these numbers over adverse or unusual track conditions-- sloppy tracks, tracks that are indeed drying out, etc. Virtually any horse player I know who has a clue knows that these off-track performances are *always* the ones you take least seriously in a horse\'s form cycle... Except, maybe, for 4.5 furlong races.
The latest example of \"gotcha\" is seemingly Buddy Gil. Not sure how Buddy looks on TG, but on Ragozin, he has a strong 2-yr-old line, developing beautifully down to the 9 level before throwing in two atrocious races in the slop.
Next out, he changes barn to the red-hot Mullins barn, who is clearly using superior feed to whatever Buddy was getting before. He sprints on the turf for the first time.
Could Buddy be a superior turf sprinter? Perhaps.
Is Mullins feeding him something new? Probably.
Buddy Gil runs a 1.5 sprinting on the turf, and then follows it up with a number MUCH more in line with previous efforts, a 5.25. Does that mean that Buddy Gil is bouncing to the moon on Saturday?
No, not in my book. We know how well Mullins is doing, and why would we make so much out of a turf sprint, when looking at this horse\'s line? Turf sprinting is such a quirky little part of the game, and with no other turf sprints on Buddy\'s resume, it\'s literally the single number on all of the Ragozin Santa Anita Derby PPs that means the least to me.
The 5+ that follows means a lot more. Within the context of the rest of his line, it\'s 4 points past his 2-yr-old top, and I think he has a decent shot of pairing it. I view his line neutrally. Not a horse I\'d key, and from what I gather, not a horse most TG players would key either. Gotcha, indeed.
Though a bit little slower than a few others, Ocean Terrace\'s Ragozin line makes the most sense to me here. Looks like he\'s sitting on a breakthrough, and he should save ground. Very wide open race and I lean towards exacta boxes with MWC, Logician, the favorite (defensive use here), and perhaps, yes, Buddy Gil.
Last comment: To me, on Ragozin, Kafwain is a pretty serious bet against. Guess what? I know at least a couple Ragozin players who disagree completely, who think Baffert will get one more effort out of him... I love the confidence with which you guys pronounce Buddy\'s line as \"negative\" on Ragozin. More than one way to read these things, huh?
Magicnight thanks for the correction. I guess my memory is slipping with my age. I did some research on Eastern Echo and found the following pedigree file. He did have a shortlived career--only three races at two.
http://breeding.bloodhorse.com/sronline/pdfs/easternecho.pdf
This really was incredible when I looked at some of the dams in the Eastern Echo line. The second dam was Glowing Tribute which screamed Old Rokeby Stables. Just look at some of the offspring: Glowing Honor, Sea Hero, Coronation Cup.
The third dam was Admiring whose dam was Searching. Searching was the dam of...?????
Ruffian !!!
Your sighs, gotchas and general cute forbearance notwithstanding, negative comments on BG came from David Patent (Rag player) and at least two others on the Rag board before my comment.
I now have a set of the Rag sheets for the Derby pool, and if I had the time there would be a whole lot to talk about. But if you believe that turf figure I have a bridge I want to sell you, no matter what happens Saturday.
There are Rag customers who are overrating the importance of a turf sprint when looking at a line, and there are Thorograph customers. I\'m aware of this. A couple in the TGraph camp think it proves something about the viability of betting on Buddy Gil on Saturday.
I think it\'s the least compelling number in the entire race.
Tell you what-- there is no way they would ever post them, but since you know the guys in the Rag office see if you can get them to show you the sheets for the horses that ran in that turf sprint that BG won. Hint-- he didn\'t win by 10. See how the numbers look on the sheets for all the horses in that race.
Second hint-- you don\'t make figures so this is something you might not get, but it is some amazing coincidence that BG exactly paired the turf number I gave him in his next start-- and that dirt number is confirmed by 1) BG,A, and DD, all of whom came out of different races, all running at or very close to an exact pairup of a top run in their previous race, which is exactly what you want to see as a figure maker, especially looking at spring 3yos, and 2) in your terms, by Ragozin doing that race (the San Felipe) exactly the same as I did, once you make the correction for their numbers running 3 points slower.
Marc,
I just don\'t get it when it comes to the logic of Ragazin/Sheet users, certainly those that are as smart as yourself. You did an analysis of Empire Maker the other day and posted it the Sheets Board that was outstanding. I printed a copy and saved.
But then you follow up with
\"No, not in my book. We know how well Mullins is doing, and why would we make so much out of a turf sprint, when looking at this horse\'s line? Turf sprinting is such a quirky little part of the game, and with no other turf sprints on Buddy\'s resume, it\'s literally the single number on all of the Ragozin Santa Anita Derby PPs that means the least to me.\"
We heard some of this same logic in the Chilukki argument(we can start that one over again if everyone would like). That this is a figure or race on Ragozin a handicapper should ignore or place limited value upon. Do they put this type of thing in their introductory kit. \"Races to ignore or place little value in.\"
The same thing was said about Laurel 2/22. \"Ignore those races, don\'t place any value on the numbers they were given when making handicapping decisions\".
Reading lines on sheets can be difficult enough, now Friedman is asking his players to guess which numbers are totally meaningless, partially meaningless or meaningful.
One final note to the Ragozin customers--Bet with confidence this weekend.
\"but since you know the guys in the Rag office\"
Not true.
\"See how the numbers look on the sheets for all the horses in that race.\"
I\'m sure they all ran huge new tops. Whenever the Ragozin operation sees a race in which all of the horses run huge new tops, it never stops to review the race, and just hopes no one notices that they screwed it up so badly-- they\'re that sloppy in their work.
\"but it is some amazing coincidence that BG exactly paired the turf number I gave him in his next start-- and that dirt number is confirmed by 1) BG,A, and DD, all of whom came out of different races, all running at or very close to an exact pairup of a top run in their previous race, which is exactly what you want to see as a figure maker, especially looking at spring 3yos,\"
Classic Brown dogma. Others think Spring 3-yr-olds notoriously develop at rapid rates. Why would they *all* pair up from their previous race? Buddy Gil: From a turf sprint to a dirt route, he paired up the number. Wow, that\'s an unusually versatile colt, that Buddy Gil.
Races run on off-tracks are the most likely races to have aberrent results, on a figure-making front.
I handicap with figures quite cautiously on this front, whether it was when I was using figures that weren\'t Sheets figures, or to this very day.
If you think there\'s something to be proved by the most aberrant situations, yes, we will see you at the windows.
Marc,
One of the problems with dealing with your line-by-lines (and to a much lesser degree those of your dearly departed buddy) is that you think a comment is a response, and it takes a lot of time dealing with the minutiae and quantity of your posts, time I don\'t have. So rather than do a point by point, I\'ll just say 1) you CAN at least look at those horses out of the grass race when they come back, and see how the figures Ragozin gave them look on their sheets, and 2) get your buddy, who has made figures, to explain to you how figures are made. It is not a question of whether 3yo\'s go forward in the spring-- do you think Ragozin does a race and says \"this looks right, they all went forward 3 points\", or that he is happier when lots of horses pair up? There WERE horses who ran significant new tops in the San Felipe-- and one reason I know that is because of the others, the ones that paired up, and 3) if you go to the archives and look at my response to Jason Litt on 6/12/02 you\'ll get a fuller explanation of what is wrong with your point about \"dogma\" regarding pairups, and how those pairups confirm not only the pairup figure but the first half of the pair.
how anybody can connect a six and a half furlong turf race and a mile and a sixteenth dirt race, and somehow make a \"pattern\" out of the two is a giant mystery to me. seriously, is this what people refer to when they talk about \"sheet patterns\"? is there anybody out there who really thinks that BG\'s last two races, taken together as a \"pattern\", will give us any indication of how the horse will run tomorrow?
Yes I\'ll take a stab at it. I think BGill\'s last two races (2\'s) equal a bounce. I think he\'ll run poorly in the SA Derby. Looks like two big races in a row and I\'ll think he\'ll feel it Saturday. Looks like a sheet pattern. I\'ll play against at a short price. HP
TGJB,
Your reference to Marc\'s buddy, also my buddy, as \"dearly departed\" is offensive. Try and show a little respect.
Frank
Have watched all the disputes going on between both boards over the last 5 years (or however long it has been). Interesting. Handicapped this race using both Ragozin and Thorograph. Although there are lots of differences on individual horses both in terms of relative number strength and pattern, my conclusion on the race ends up being the same regardless of which product I look at.
The horse with the strongest number already run looks too good. Although a lot of people seem to think he is spent, his pattern on both sheet products is actually excellent. If you were to add 5 points to all of his numbers on either set of sheets, people would be slobbering over this horse as a pattern play -- in normal situations, I believe most rational handicappers would forgive the last number (not that is sucks on its own right). I do not know where he will be Kentucky Derby Day, but I am sure he will run the best number on both products on April 5....would be afraid a bad trip will allow a slower horse to win but the jockey change does give me some comfort.
Don\'t know how much value will end up being there when all is said and done, but, if the price is right, this could be a solid punch play.
Good Luck to all!
Frank,
I have been trying not to open a can of worms, but let\'s just say I am privy to e-mails to which you are not (both from and to, where I gave a whole bunch of warnings and requests to knock it off, you should ask to see them), and that you may not have read some posts that I deleted as soon as I saw them, or recognize some posts on the other board that were put up in other names. I was called a lot worse than dearly departed, repeatedly, and believe me, I\'m the one taking the high road-- if I wanted to I could handle this the way Friedman does, calling names and deleting responses.