Okay, Zen is the greatest horse ever to race on Pro Ride. 14-14 is impressive, no matter what the competition, but was she really such a big surprise in the Classic? Who, or what, did she really beat? Were the best horses even running in this race?
MTB-well documented dislike for the Pro Ride, won his big race in the slop. Lots of horses have beaten this guy since the Derby.
CJ-big gaps in the PP's tell me this horse has issues. Has run well on this surface but it's been awhile since he put 2 in a row together. Last was one of those "looked better than it really was" races as the pace collapsed even more than usual on synth.
SB-never tried this surface and everything I read said he didn't look near as efficient moving over the track as he did earlier this year on dirt. Doubt if you'll see him on synthetic again.
TO-Never raced on anything but turf. Zero all weather experience.
RK-won an optional claimer at Laurel to start the year, went West and flourished on the surface. Looked over the top coming in and another out of the Goodwood; the winner of that didn't even run in the Classic.
GP-He's a very good turf horse. Tried the poly once this year and ran fifth.
Einstein-Very versatile horse who was "shuffled back after steadying sharply and was never close thereafter"
Girolamo-3 year raced in an Aoc in September, no experience on synthetic and never tried any of the big 3 year olds. Why was he even here?
RVW-turf horse, no all weather experience, and had a bad foot. Shouldn't have even raced.
RR-tried this surface last year and stopped. No chance on this track with his running style.
QR-disliked the track so much he wouldn't even get in the gate.
AG-won the Hawthorne GC in the mud and an allowance race at Hol on the turf. 1-12 on all weather and I'm not sure if he's ever raced on Pro Ride. A real stretch.
I\'m just sayin...
WAB:
Thorough post mortem. Here is how I looked at this race before it was run:
MTB: Canadian 2YO champion, Grade 1 winner.
CJ: 2 Grade 1 wins, 1 Grade 3 win.
Summer Bird: 3 Grade 1 wins. Likely Eclipse award winning 3YO male.
TO: Winner of Group 1, Group 2 and Group 3 races in Europe.
RK: Grade 1 winner.
GP: Winner of 4 Grade 1s, 1 Grade 2 and 1 Grade 3. Likely Eclipse winner.
E\'stein: Winner of 5 Grade 1s and 1 Grade 2.
Giro: Grade 2 winner.
RVW: 2 Group 1 wins, 1 Group 2 win.
RR: Group 2 win, Grade 2 win.
AG: 2 Grade 2 wins.
This field (besides Zen) had 18 Grade 1/Group 1 wins, 9 Grade/Group 2s and 3 Grade/Group 3s.
All I have to say: Zenyatta is HOY. Her connections did what was necessary to give her a chance for HOY; Rachel\'s connections were more passive and pay the price.
This sets up RAs epic campaign for HOY redemption next year, culminating with a BC Classic win at CD. Maybe JB is part owner by then, or at least a lienholder.
Vince McMahon could not have scripted it better.
Here\'s who she beat. You maybe didn\'t see my earlier post, \"Only in Hollywood\"? And believe me you don\'t want to play this game with Rachel either - honestly you don\'t. The waters will be very shallow once you get past Summer Bird and though I never though he was much of a horse he did win the derby so you gotta give him that, Mine That Bird. After that how many Grade I winners did Rachel beat??? Go through the list of races won by the horses Rachel beat!
\"Date: November 07, 2009 10:09PM
In winning the Breeder\'s Cup Classic (of course, the first filly ever to do so), Zenyatta defeated males who had won (by my quick count) 15 Grade/Group I stakes in North America and Great Britain including the following:
Kentucky Derby,
Belmont,
Travers,
Jockey Club Gold Cup,
Pacific Classic,
Arlington Million,
Frank Kilroe Mile,
Manhattan,
Man O\'War,
Turf Classic,
Stephen Foster,
Champion,
Sussex,
Queen Elizabeth,
La. Super Derby.\"
Dana-- not that it\'s relevant to discussion of HOY, but Rachel\'s list would look pretty good, AND she beat them on the surface where they won their big ones (with the exception of Pioneerofthenile). On your list, the Pac Classic is the only one even on any kind of synthetic.
The Classic field wound up being a bit over-hyped in the end.
Rip V was a miler with no lasix. Summer Bird\'s breeding leaned dirt. Mine That Bird is terrible. Gio Ponti was indeed well suited to run 10f over that surface. Twice Over was a solid Group I performer, with 1st lasix. Both Godolphin horses figured to fall over. Richard and Col John did what they did in the prep - run pretty well. Quality Road, unbelievably, read the DRF and decided this just wasn\'t going to work. Einstein checked out.
Not a bad field, but not a great pro-ride bunch either.
Michael;
As an A student in pedigree I\'m surprised you didn\'t know that Elusive Qualitys score very well in reading comprehension. Excellent post! A model of concision.
Bob,
I figured out there was a gene back there that would allow them to get the longer distances if bred correctly, but I completely missed the reading gene.
Given that their dad figured out how to run 7f over dirt in 1:20 flat AND 1m over turf in 1:31.6, nothing they do should surprise us.
Good analysis as usual. But here\'s the part that puzzles me. It seemed to me that for weeks leading up to the BC all I read on this board was that this field was too tough and Zenyata had no chance. Now it seems that since Zenyata surprised nearly all of us (me included) with a convincing win, everyone is now maintaining that it was a weak field. Why isn\'t it more appropriate to conclude that Zenyata was better than we thought rather than that ALL the others were tin cans masquerading as race horses?
JimP Wrote:
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> Good analysis as usual. But here\'s the part that
> puzzles me. It seemed to me that for weeks leading
> up to the BC all I read on this board was that
> this field was too tough and Zenyata had no
> chance. Now it seems that since Zenyata surprised
> nearly all of us (me included) with a convincing
> win, everyone is now maintaining that it was a
> weak field. Why isn\'t it more appropriate to
> conclude that Zenyata was better than we thought
> rather than that ALL the others were tin cans
> masquerading as race horses?
Jim,
When Sea The Stars was in the mix, the field was looking very interesting. He dropped out though, then Barry\'s horse left, and Mastercraftsman went to the mile. After QR refused to load and none of the dirt horses fired, the field just wasn\'t as strong as some of us thought it might be. The way Z inhaled the field though, I still think one could argue she was better than most of us thought. Not necessarily mutually exclusive notions there.
I\'d add only that a certain subset of the population here expected an 8-wide move that never came to pass.
Haven\'t done the day yet, but given the figures she\'s been running and the figures Gio Ponti has been running, I\'m guessing she was pretty close to exactly as good as I thought she was.
If the chart comments are correct, Richard\'s Kid lost 6 lengths of ground to the top two, by the way. We\'ll post it when it\'s done, as usual.
The pace at 47.4 was a tad slow for the fastest horses in training(rank filly went 45 & change in the filly version friday).Z got the last quarter in app 23 flat, a la turf racing. The fig may not do her justice and I thought it was the fastest race she\'d ever run,looking at the whole day.
Beyer had Z fast at 112 and Rags had both Zenyatta and Gio Ponti faster than TG going in. TG may have Z slower coming out, in line with her previous performances.
Can\'t buy the ink Richards Kid gets,one run synth slug who struggled at the GR 3 level on dirt.His figs are enhanced by his wide running style.
Mike
Well, I wish someone would do Rachel\'s list. I\'d like to see it. List all the Grade I winners she defeated, the races they won. And I can\'t see how that\'s not relevant - how is who they beat not important? As far as the synthetic factor, frankly, that\'s not relevant because, unfortunately, that\'s where the race was held, and how in the world could any of us figure out to the smallest detail who is a synthetic specialist, who\'s not, etc. and factor that analysis into the HOY decision. We\'re getting into really muddy waters there.
Again, what about the possibility that Zen would have been better on dirt? Still, no one addresses that thesis which I firmly believe is true. If you want to speculate, then that\'s my speculation. Look at her one race on dirt and compare her action to the way she travels on synthetic - she was more comfortable on dirt and ran a faster number, right?
The biggest knock on Z getting HOY would be simply that she never left So. Cal - horse of the year should in my mind travel and perform at different tracks - that\'s my biggest knock. She only ran like 5 times right, too - that\'s a little knock too because I feel like HOY should take on all comers and race many times. Regarding Rachel my biggest knock is simply that she never beat a really quality field, and she never won at a mile and 1/4, the classic distance, and her campaign ended around Labor Day and that\'s way too early to call it quits. In this day and age you need to win the BC classic to really be a legit HOY. How many HOY did not win the BC Classic in recent memory - I have no idea, but it\'s probably not too many. Rachel wins hands down on numbers, right? Maybe you could post their sheets and we could compare them.
Honestly, if I\'m being objective and not emotional, I have no strong opinion. I think as I pointed out you could make a case and some knocks on both of them. I can\'t say with certainly I know I\'m right b/c I don\'t, really. Rachel\'s best race was the Haskell, right or was it the Oaks? Either case she beat one quality animal in the Haskell, and I\'m not sure of any in the Oaks. I don\'t see Mine That Bird as a really quality animal, though Rachel winning the Preakness is still huge - but had the derby been run on any other day or conditions he might have been in a 50K claiming race on Saturday somewhere else. Macho Again or Bullsbay, are they really top class horses? Z\'s only strong point is the BC classic but if you don\'t think that was a good race then you\'d have to say she doesn\'t deserve HOY.
Dana-- conjecture about how good a horse might have been on another surface or was in a different year is not relevant to HOY. As for your second paragraph, it\'s simple-- you listed the races they won, see whether Z beat them on that surface. I think you end up with a list of Richard\'s Kid.
Some of the winners of the very races you mentioned were beaten by Rachel-- on the surface over which they won those races. Derby, Belmont, Gold Cup,Travers, Test, Foster, Riva Ridge-- just off the top of my head. Also beat Pioneerofthenile, who won his GI over synth, but ran second in the Derby over dirt.
\"In this day and age you need to win the BC classic to really be a legit HOY.\"
Really?
\"How many HOY did not win the BC Classic in recent memory - I have no idea, but it\'s probably not too many.\"
In the last twenty years the Classic winner was more likely to NOT be HOY than to win the award. 11 out of the last 20 Classic winners did not win HOY. Here\'s the list:
Year BC Classic Winner HOY
2009 Zenyatta ???
2008 Raven\'s Pass Curlin
2007 Curlin Curlin
2006 Invasor Invasor
2005 Saint Liam Saint Liam
2004 Ghostzapper Ghostzapper
2003 Pleasantly Perfect Mineshaft
2002 Volponi Azeri
2001 Tiznow Point Given
2000 Tiznow Tiznow
1999 Cat Thief Charismatic
1998 Awesome Again Skip Away
1997 Skip Away Favorite Trick
1996 Alphabet Soup Cigar
1995 Cigar Cigar
1994 Concern Holy Bull
1993 Arcangues Kotashaan
1992 A.P. Indy A.P. Indy
1991 Black Tie Affair Black Tie Affair
1990 Unbridled Criminal Type
1989 Sunday Silence Sunday Silence
Interestingly, Skip Away won the Classic and lost HOY (to a 2YO, OK, that was a horrible vote that year); and, the next year lost the Classic but won HOY.
That\'s why they call it Horse of the Year.
MagicNight,
Last year, one of the \"exceptions\" on your list, not coincidentally, is the other year of putting the BC on plastic.
Whether you like synthetics or not, it has to be a consideration in weighing HOTY.
TGJB Wrote:
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> If the chart comments are correct, Richard\'s Kid
> lost 6 lengths of ground to the top two, by the
> way. We\'ll post it when it\'s done, as usual.
While there is no excuse for betting Alex Solis in this race, that would be a welcome moral victory.
Michael-- don\'t get me started.
Jim;
Regarding last year, as I remember it, Zenyatta was the only other horse that was getting strong HOY consideration. But even though she won a G1 on dirt, the vote wasn\'t close because Curlin earned it by going outside his comfort zone (losing on grass & pro-ride) and having a huge year on dirt. Had Z won the \'08 Classic instead of the Distaff, I think she wins it. Yes, it matters ... a lot.
But while the Classic is a very important consideration, it ain\'t the only consideration. If it were, then Arcangues, Pleasantly Perfect and Volponi would have been HOY winners (and, hey, come to think of it, since the Fix-Six likely would not have been uncovered if Medaglia d\' Oro had won the Classic, maybe Volponi should have been HOY).
The thing I hate about all awards is not that they often wind up being political (negative) campaigns, but that they are so frequently wrong (see Favorite Trick and any number of \"Best Picture\" awards). They are an artificial construct that represent man\'s strange obsession with ranking things and add no value to the shared experience. While I would prefer that Rachel win the HOY, I really don\'t care one way or another because that honor won\'t make me think any more highly of her. Nor would it make me think any less of Zenyatta. I think this discussion only drags down the entire enterprise (and I\'ll make this my last post on HOY). What I\'ll care to remember years from now is not which one won the \'09 HOY, but the awe and wonder that these two sparked, whether I was in that rattling Saratoga grandstand on Woodward day, or watching the Classic in my quiet country house, and finding myself strangely short of breath, while my dogs slept.
Bob
There\'s no question that the list of races won by this classic field is very impressive. Zenyatta is a very, very, good race mare who beat a very good field of horses who had either never run on Pro Ride or had limited success on Pro Ride. I think it\'s been stated ad nauseum that synthetics are a third surface and should be treated as such. Some horses love them, some hate them, and the rest fall somewhere in between. It just seems (no numbers to prove) that there are more extreme swings-love or hate-when horses switch to these surfaces. Of the 11 other horses besides Zen, how many Pro Ride wins did they have? 3 or 4? I\"m not sure because I don\'t know how many of Colonel John wins were on Pro Ride. If you think back to past Classics run on dirt, the winner defeated horses that had 20 or 30 or more cumulative wins on dirt. (Help me stat guys). One more question to chew on before I drop this:
If this race is run at Churchill in the slop and MTB runs by this field, are we giving him HOY and singing his praises like we are Zenyatta?
what about bob Wrote:
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(Help me stat guys). One more question to
> chew on before I drop this:
>
> If this race is run at Churchill in the slop and
> MTB runs by this field, are we giving him HOY and
> singing his praises like we are Zenyatta?
WAB:
The award is for Horse of the Year.
Under your hypothetical, MTB would have completed the year with a flukey
KY Derby win and the BC Classic.
Zenyatta was undefeated. She won other G1 stakes. She gave weight to
admittedly overmatched opponents.
Enough already. Have to go make sense of a pretty dismal Aqueduct card.
I\'m sure that when you do the numbers we will see that Gio Ponti and Z had the best trips. They both hugged the rail around both turns and with Zenyatta\'s weight advantage some of the others (Twice Over most likely) will probably get a better number then her.
You said it in an earlier post, Jerry, credit goes to Mike Smith for this one. After all his comments about not being to the bottom of her and how she couldn\'t lose he put tremendous pressure on himself to do what had to be done to ensure she would not lose and to be sure he got it done. The risk with a big long striding mare like this is, of course, that she will get caught in traffic but Mike got her to move laterally twice in the stretch (once away from the rail and then outside of Twice Over) and then accelerate on the outside.
Best of luck in the breeding shed Zenyatta, I look forward to your offspring showing the same kind of determination and will in the future.
There\'s not much traffic to weave through when only 2 horses ( Gio & Z ) ran at all in the last 1/4 mile of this very overrated Classic fileld ???
Now we\'re back to the \"overrated field.\" Endless. I\'m wondering what horses would have had to be in the race for you to declare it was a worthy victory. It\'s one thing to say you don\'t think Z is HOY but this is just ridiculous.
HP
The logic seems to be: Zenyatta is over-rated. She beat this field easily. Therefore this field was over-rated. Since it wasn\'t much of a field that Zenyatta beat, therefore Zenyatta must be over-rated.
Makes sense to me!
Don\'t think that people are saying Zenyatta is overrated, the field she beat was.
The facts are the field she beat looked a lot better on paper than the way they raced. I don\'t think anyone who ever watched a race can deny that ?
Derby winner, Belmont, Travers, JC Gold Cup winner, Pacific Classic winner, RVW Euro reputation, Gio & Einstein resumes, Col John etc... a great field that did not fire, run to their numbers or handle the track. A Grade 1 in moderate fractions that had only 2 horses running with any energy in the lane.
Her stretch run was tremendous, it was great for racing, great television but all the Z come lately comments as for horse of the year are insane !
She is a tremendous race mare who ends it 14 for 14. Even an ardent anti synthetic, east coast bias, traditional dirt & turf guy can\'t deny that.
But I\'ll still stick to the last 2 lines of my \" Done with Poly \" post.
Can you really picture Mike Smith fanning out 8 wide in the Saratoga stretch and running down Rachel after spotting her 10 lengths ?
Let\'s be serious about horse of the year folks.
There were 20 horses on the card that day whose lifetime top was negative 1 !
FrankD: \"The facts are the field she beat looked a lot better on paper than the way they raced.\"
According to the figures that TG posted, it appears to be that the following horses bounced in the Classic:
Girolamo - not unexpected coming off a big new top
Eintein - 7yo coming off a big (but not top) negative number
Rip Van Winkle - ?
Regal Ransom - ?
Summer Bird - bounced coming off a huge negative number
All the others either ran pretty much as expected or moved forward. Twice Over ran a big new top.
Why do you just assume Smith will go 8 wide??
This goes back to the ridiculous premise that I\'ve been discounting all year. Funny how only a small few had the integrity to give me any credit for this after Smith gave Z a great trip last Saturday.
When yet another disillusioned member of this forum starts in with the \"8 wide\" comments\", especially after witnessing his ride in the Classic, its really hard to take anything else you have to say seriously.
He goes wide when he knows he has the superior horse and will win anyway. He doesn\'t when he can\'t go wide to win AND an opportunity presents itself to take a shorter route. I\'ve given multiple race examples of Smith saving ground to win races.
Yes, it is very possible that Zenyatta can run down Rachel. She was life and death to hold off Macho Again for cripes sake.
For the LAST friggin time, get off the wide nonsense.
P-Dub - the level of this dialogue...if somehow they would have been able to dig up Secretariat and bring him back to life, in his prime, and Zenyatta beat him, it would be meaningless to some of these folks. Just like they watch Smith get a 1/2 path trip and he\'d be 8 wide in a match race. You can\'t win.
HP