I was going to stay out of this, but I\'m kind of amazed at this discussion.
Even leaving aside the question of ability and sticking to accomplishment, which is what HOY should be based on, if Zenyatta gets HOY, it will be based on ONE race, on a specialized surface. Yes, she\'s a great mare. But before the BC she had done absolutely nothing of note this year, beating up on the same small FM fields in her own backyard. In this one she beat grass horses, synth specialists and out of their element dirt horses at a game she is very good at. She gets credit for beating colts-- but that\'s it. Maybe some years that would be a HOY campaign, but...
Rachel went everywhere and beat all comers. Record breaking Oaks, a TC win, and she was both a THREE YEAR OLD AND A FILLY against colts in the Woodward.
HOY? Don\'t be silly. Rachel had arguably the greatest campaign any filly has ever had. And that\'s no knock on Zenyatta.
And by the way, \"Wide Mikey\" won this one-- that was a great ride.
Jerry,
OK, I\'ll be the first.
Good points, but some things don\'t quite ring true.
Rachel didn\'t go \"everywhere and beat all comers\". If that were true, she would have been there Saturday. Rachel has raced on synthetics and won before. Her owner was still pouting over Curlin last year. The Woodward was 2 months before the BC.
I\'m not going to rehash my arguments on the other stuff.
Its not silly to consider Zenyatta for HOY. If it is, there were a whole lot of trainers, jockeys, and others that were being \"silly\" yesterday. These people, who are around horses 365 days a year, seem to think otherwise.
Undefeated campaign with numerous G1s plus victory in the BC Classic equals my
vote for HOY (if I had one).
Best campaigns by female runner ever (my opinion):
1) 1983: All Along (wins 4 Grade 1 stakes v males in 6 week period).
2) 1980: Genuine Risk (wins KY Derby, hits the board in Preakness and Belmont).
Rachel made her bones with a blowout Kentucky Oaks against some fairly average
fillies. She also drilled some pretty average 3YO colts and never faced the 2 3YOs
generally considered to be fastest, Jimbo\'s future entry of I Want Revenge and
Quality Road.
As for RA\'s Woodward victory, I look at it the other way: In any other year, this
would have been good enough for RA to win HOY.
I think when all the excitement dies down, and they look back at the year, Rachel will get HOY. I don\'t think I\'ve ever seen a performance like she did in the Woodward.
Maybe when all is said and done the HOY will go to Rachel Alexandra, but to say that it is silly to give some consideration to Zenyatta for that award, is ... well, just silly.
IMO, Rachel gets HOY hands down.
IMO, it would be an understatement to say that Zen\'s \"dance steps\" and \"body language\" pre and post race were absolutely beautiful (and a \"tell\" as to what was about to happen) - and IMO think that has a lot to do with the outpouring of support for Zen being HOY. The memory of her BCC is fresh, while the memory of what RA did this year is fading a bit.
The game certainly has changed since I got in it in \'87. Never thought I\'d see the day where the 2 best horses in America were fillies. Too bad we\'ll never see these 2 hook up..........
P-Dub,
I know you are in your glory, as you and several others have loved Zenyatta all year long, and you also have a right to be pleased that Smith gave this horse a great trip, after getting abused here (and elsewhere) for a long time.
But your objectivity seems to have gone by the wayside. If I wanted to spend the time now to search the threads here, even you were unhappy about the path Shirreffs took this year, before the Breeders Cup.
Rachel had an extremely ambitious campaign. Period. Name another filly that ever campaigned like she did this year. Saying she beat weak 3 year old colts is borderline ridiculous and incredulous. Summer Bird is one of the best 3 year olds of the last 5 years. He has run negative 3\'s and 4\'s. Coincidence that when he ran against Rachel, he looked ordinary? He didn\'t like the wet track? Wrong, He ran a negative 4 on the wet track. The connections were clear from the beginning, they would do anything, but run on plastic. Kudos to Jess Jackson for sticking with that. Plastic tracks are for the birds. Rachel won the Oaks, Preakness, Haskell, Travers and the Woodward.
Zenyatta beat a bunch of tin cans all year, then stepped up on a big stage and won the BC Classic. She gets plenty of credit for that, but it pales compared to the resume of Rachel.
Richiebee,
I have read most of your posts for the last 5 years and they are always good and usually hysterical. But I can\'t believe what you wrote here. Thank god you don\'t have a vote. One race = HOY? No way.
I am not the head of the Rachel fan club, I am a gambler and have been stupid/stubborn enough to bet against both Zenyatta and Rachel all year long, but objectively looking at their records, I can\'t believe the vote will be even close.
Anybody that actually things Zenyatta will win and wants to bet on that, shoot me an email. Be happy to take your money.
I don\'t think Zenyatta will win this one. There is just as much bias in this race as there was from the SA track surface. The track bias favored Zenyatta. The HOY voting bias does not. As handicappers we should take those biases into account. So I\'m not going to be betting on Zenyatta in this race. Unfortunately I didn\'t bet her on Saturday either. That wasn\'t very smart.
Here\'s my opinion.
If Zen runs in the Woodward, she inhales Rachel at the 1/16 pole and wins by a few lengths wrapped up. I believe Zenyatta is the better horse.
Z did not run in the Woodward however. She did not run in the Beldame. They scratched out of the CD race because they didn\'t like how the track looked. Zenyatta was indeed brilliant in the BC, but the \'09 BC was not the championship of anything. It was a series of very expensive races run over a new surface most had never seen, and will never see again.
Now, it is rather disappointing that Jess Jackson decided to run out the clock in the end. The Woodward win was an amazing feat for a 3 yr old filly, but just a solid race when talking about the best runner in the land. Remember, RA got 8 lbs from Macho Again, a horse that could not win unless he was getting weight. Ducking quality runners in the big mile and a quarter races in the 2nd half of the year is not a good way to secure the horse of the year award imo.
Still, Mr Jackson set out an aggressive campaign early, and Rachel did dance the big dances, shipping to win the FG Oaks, Ky Oaks, Preakness, and Haskell, all in race horse time.
It's a close call, but, in the end, Rachel did more than Zen to earn my imaginary vote for horse of the year.
First, let me say that if I had a vote for HOTY I would vote for Rachel Alexandra. I think she probably had the best 3YO filly campaign of all time and an excellent one compared to most horses that have received the award. I think it was the better campaign than Zenyatta\'s in calendar year 2009.
All that said, these are my other thoughts about the debate.
1. The fields that Rachel Alexandra beat were unquestionably much weaker than the field Zenyatta beat in the Classic. They aren\'t even on the same planet.
2. It is easier for a filly to beat colts in the spring classics than it is for a filly to beat older horses and 3YO colts later in the year due to development issues. That\'s why others have won the SA Derby, Derby, Belmont etc...before, but they rarely even attempt the BC Classic or other great Grade 1 races against older horses unless they come up weak.
3. Macho Again and Bullsbay are Grade 3 or marginal Grade 2 horses that would have finished close to last and next to last in most BC Classics
4. It is no more sensible to diminish the accomplishments of Zenyatta in the Classic because some of the eastern dirt horses were disadvantaged on the synthetic surface than it would to diminish the accomplishments of prior BC Classic winners because all the great European Grade 1 turf horses were disadvantaged by racing on dirt. Zenyatta still beat a boatload of multiple Grade 1 winning turf and synthetic horses from the US and Europe that were very suited to the surface in addition to those dirt horses.
5. The very same poor analysis that has plagued Zenyatta\'s reputation among easterners and figure handicappers has plagued some of the horses she\'s been beating all year in CA. Zenyatta has been out-kicking and crushing Life is Sweet all year in extremely slow paced races that impacted both horse\'s figures negatively because both are deeper closers. No one seems to have noticed that Life is Sweet looked like a world beater and actually ran a fast figure when she beat a solid field in the Ladies Classic. That\'s because she finally got a \"dirt like\" pace in front of her to set up that performance and time. Those CA fillies were not that bad. It was just that the slow paces that are more prevalent on synthetic surfaces and especially in those small fields made them look weak because they caused slow final times.
I find it absolutely amazing that we just witnessed one the greatest fillies of all time put together perhaps the greatest overall race record of any filly in history and watched her close out her career with one of the greatest and most historic performances ever by a filly, on the biggest global stage available, yet she still can\'t get the proper respect!!
IMO this is all because of biases against synthetic surfaces, east vs west childishness, and because most handicappers can\'t comprehend that final time figures earned on synthetic surfaces aren\'t comparable to dirt figures. It\'s utterly amazing. Even Rodney is rolling in his grave.
Cart,
Not a bad post overall, but you have to consider why she has the reputation she has. I think Saturday\'s race, in retrospect, was a real shame in that all i could think about afterward was what might have been.
These guys (Moss, Sherriffs) have this kind of horse in the barn, and race her like they aren\'t sure what she\'s capable of. Milady, Vanity, CL Hirsch, Lady\'s Secret? What kind of campaign is this for a horse who can run a race like she did on Saturday? Think about what might have been in 2009 if Zenyatta was asked to display her talent in the same way that Rachel was. They didn\'t have to come East to do this either. Why not run in the Big Cap and/or the Holly Gold Cup, and/or the Pac Classic, etc? What a shame....
I understand your point very well, but if they took the tougher path she may not have delivered hear peak on the right day. The plan from day one was to peak on Breeder\'s Cup day. Look at Rachel Alexandra. She had the tough campaign that some would have liked Zenyatta to have. However, if the Classic was on dirt and Rachel entered, IMO she would have been badly beaten. Part of the reason I think that is because she was \"done\" after that hard campaign and desperately needed a rest. You can\'t have it both ways. You can\'t have a great campaign and expect to be fresh for the BC also. Believe me though, I do understand your point.
Cartman, \"IMO this is all because of biases against synthetic surfaces, east vs west childishness, and because most handicappers can\'t comprehend that final time figures earned on synthetic surfaces aren\'t comparable to dirt figures.\"
All I can say is AMEN!
Confession: I am located halfway between the two coasts. I\'m biased against BOTH of them, but I try to not let that affect my handicapping. I am also biased against synthetics because I am a traditionalist, but I\'m working to overcome that as well. But I know what I saw on Saturday. That was one hell of a horse race by one hell of a horse. I didn\'t think she could beat that field and I bet it that way. Boy, was I wrong about Zenyatta. We can say in retrospect that it wasn\'t much of a field or the others were compromised by the surface, but I noticed on this board that not very many of us were playing it that way BEFORE the race. Who gets HOY is the matter of another race. I think I heard some mention that Summer Bird should be given some consideration. But that also was BEFORE the race. Now we\'ll see how the HOY race turns out. I doubt that Zenyatta can overcome the biases in that race any more than Summer Bird could in the Classic. But whether she gets HOY or not, Zenyatta is a race horse.
I don\'t know. They could have taken a shot or two in the year leading up to the BC, no? They didn\'t have to go all out & run in all of them like Rachel did. If we\'re at the point in horse racing where you have to save it all for one day, then this game is DOA going forward. They are race horses afterall. Probably a good idea to race them. Especially if they\'re capable of running like she is....
Michael,
You chose to \"drop\" Zenyatta into the Woodward, which was likely Rachel\'s worst race of the campaign, from a performance perspective.
Put Zenyatta in the Oaks race that Rachel ran, or the Haskell, and she isn\'t within shouting distance, let alone winning \"wrapped up\".
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> You chose to \"drop\" Zenyatta into the Woodward,
> which was likely Rachel\'s worst race of the
> campaign, from a performance perspective.
To me that was Rachel\'s best performance of the year. She was under pace pressure every step of that race and still came out on top by gutting it out the last 1/16th.
Two great mares with unfortunately two extremely different running styles so even if they did race each other it would not settle anything because the other would have an excuse for losing.
The only possible case where there would be a \"true winner\" would be if Rachel got out to an easy lead and still got beat by Zenyatta or Rachel burned it up in a fast pace and still won easy. Any other case and there would be an excuse for the loser.
Honestly, who cares about HOY? That won\'t change my respect for each horse either way.
I have no issue with the pro ride surface during regular race days at SA as for the most part it is synth horses vs. Synth horses. But to call that a championship day of racing is not correct because the dirt horses did not run up to their ability at all. I came up just a little short of even for the two days but only because of the turf races. The \"synth\" races were a toss up..
The Zenyatta fans want to ignore speed figs, okie dokie.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> You chose to \"drop\" Zenyatta into the Woodward,
> which was likely Rachel\'s worst race of the
> campaign, from a performance perspective.
The Woodward was not one of Rachel\'s worst races. The figure may have been slower, but that\'s because she wasn\'t running against 3 yr old fillies with 70 and 80 Beyers. Running against 6 fillies with 70 Beyers often inflates one\'s speed figure. Rachel came into the Woodward on perfect rest and gave it everything she had. A race indicative of true ability imo.
> Put Zenyatta in the Oaks race that Rachel ran, or
> the Haskell, and she isn\'t within shouting
> distance, let alone winning \"wrapped up\".
In my opinion, there is no horse in America that would have beaten Rachel on Haskell day. Chalk one up for Rachel. At the same time, most agree that Zen would have inhaled RA in the stretch of the Classic. Knowing what we know today, you couldn\'t get 1-5 on Zen in that head to head. And sure Jim, Zenyatta couldn\'t have around that ultra quick CD surface in 1:48.87 that day (Oaks). Even better, she wouldn\'t have been within shouting distance. Zenyatta would have run around that CD oval in 1:51 that day, right? Or do you think it would have been 1:52? 1:53? What\'s shouting distance?
This is all nothing more than one\'s opinion Jim. That\'s why I lead off with \"here\'s my opinion\". Pure speculation. Sad part is, personal opinion and speculation are going to decide horse of the year.
Michael-- based on Rachel\'s top (3) as a 2yo on poly, if she had come into the race rested, at weight for age, I would have laid about as much of that 1/5 as anyone wanted to take. That would have been all-in time for me.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael-- based on Rachel\'s top (3) as a 2yo on
> poly, if she had come into the race rested, at
> weight for age, I would have laid about as much of
> that 1/5 as anyone wanted to take. That would have
> been all-in time for me.
I think you would have probably lost a show bet in that instance...She can\'t run hard early and outfinish Zenyatta at 1 1/4 on that track..Just my opinion based on what i\'ve seen.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael-- based on Rachel\'s top (3) as a 2yo on
> poly, if she had come into the race rested, at
> weight for age, I would have laid about as much of
> that 1/5 as anyone wanted to take. That would have
> been all-in time for me.
And you\'re more than entitled to that opinion Jerry, especially since you used that type of analysis to try and purchase the filly long before she was Rachel The Great.
Great discussion.
Speaking of which...
Turns out there is this idea in law that someone is not supposed to be allowed to keep ill-gotten gains, which involves something called disgorgement of profit...
Trial date is April 6th. I\'ll be in Kentucky for Blue Grass weekend.
Conquistador Cielo or DR. Fager could not run a mile on the lead on pro-ride and be there at the end !
It is not the place to hold a championship event. Look at all the Goldphin horses who ran amazing numbers at Saratoga & Belmont who did nothing. All were pointed for the cup, arrived in California early 4-6 weeks to get acclimated and came up empty.
If Zenyatta ran in the ladies classic you would have had to bet Music Note if you ever looked at a sheet in your life. Tell me that Sara Louise, Pyro & Coco Beach are not Grade 1 animals ?
I think the correct legal term is -- unjust enrichment. Probably not a bad name for a racehorse either.
I should have also said, \"Good Luck\" I am sure I speak for many when I say we are rooting for you.
Unjust enrichment, quantum meruit, and Kentucky trade secrets act violation are three of our claims. That last one carries disgorgement of profits plus an equal amount in penalties.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rachel had an extremely ambitious campaign.
> Period. Name another filly that ever campaigned
> like she did this year. Saying she beat weak 3
> year old colts is borderline ridiculous and
> incredulous. Summer Bird is one of the best 3
> year olds of the last 5 years. He has run
> negative 3\'s and 4\'s. Coincidence that when he
> ran against Rachel, he looked ordinary? He didn\'t
> like the wet track? Wrong, He ran a negative 4 on
> the wet track. The connections were clear from
> the beginning, they would do anything, but run on
> plastic. Kudos to Jess Jackson for sticking with
> that. Plastic tracks are for the birds. Rachel
> won the Oaks, Preakness, Haskell, Travers and the
> Woodward.
>
> Zenyatta beat a bunch of tin cans all year, then
> stepped up on a big stage and won the BC Classic.
> She gets plenty of credit for that, but it pales
> compared to the resume of Rachel.
>
> Richiebee,
>
> I have read most of your posts for the last 5
> years and they are always good and usually
> hysterical. But I can\'t believe what you wrote
> here. Thank god you don\'t have a vote. One race
> = HOY? No way.
>
> I am not the head of the Rachel fan club, I am a
> gambler and have been stupid/stubborn enough to
> bet against both Zenyatta and Rachel all year
> long, but objectively looking at their records, I
> can\'t believe the vote will be even close.
Jim:
Zenyatta is undefeated, and the first female winner of the BC Classic. Based on
that she will get plenty of votes which are provincial and/or sentimental. Right
or wrong, that is the reality of the situation. A lot of the folks given Eclipse
votes do not take performance figures into account.
I believe you overrate Summer Bird and the rest of this years 3YO crap. And as I
mentioned in the previous post, RA never faced Quality Road or I Want Revenge,
the powerful entry from the Jimbo Derby Future wager.
My opinion is that Mine That Bird and Summer Bird will not win another graded
stakes in their careers.
I think I am being pretty fair to the Zen Mistress, considering her victory cost
me between $6000 - $7000 Saturday, the will pays on the $4 Pick 4s (actually $1
P4s times 4) I was alive with to 5 runners in the Classic, including the 2nd and
3rd place finishers. As the kids today might say, \"Classic Fail\".
How could you ever be on this site and not have played Zenyatta among 5 plays in the last leg of a pick 4 ???
I\'m anti her for horse of the year, but if you ever read a sheet she was a must play especially if your going 5 deep in a pick. Her pro-ride races were simply too Good to leave out ?
Frank D,
I know lots of people that didn\'t play Zenyatta. Plenty of \"sheet readers\".
You have to see an overall ticket, before you question a strategy. If you have a ticket that included Conduit and Goldikova, you need to find value somewhere. Playing the pick-4 and playing all chalk isn\'t a great strategy.
If you were tossing Conduit or Goldikova (as I did and I am sure others may have), then I think it is a different story in that you should have Zenyatta covered.
Anyway, everybody has their own overall strategy when playing these pick-4\'s, but this gambler will never have a ticket in the pick-4 where all four chalks are part of the ticket (if they are that good, then I am not playing it...)
JIm
I tossed Goldikova and used a couple of otehrs besides Conduit !
As an owner whose horse raced first time synthetic in the cup I can only say that good horses to be called great must perform on all surfaces.I just don\'t understand why the powers that be could not have arranged for two races credibly spaced on each surface.Not only would that have been great for racing but it would have put to rest all the speculation about who should be horse of the year.Sadly ,we have probably seen Zen run her last race and the probability of that no longer exist.A shame though, as having been lucky enough to see each of these splendid horses perform both at Saratoga for Woodward and Sat.at Santa Anita and being witness to the excitement and affection generated among the public for these wonderful animals I can only say \"what could have been\".
Frank:
I guess you and I should have partnered on the ticket.
I singled Godzillakova and Conduit on my ticket, based mostly on the historical
Euro dominance in grass events and the fact that each of these runners was
getting Lasix for the first time after having won their BC races in 08 w/out
Lasix. (A least one person I spoke with thought the addition of Lasix was a
negative, which I am still shaking my head at).
I was aware that Zenyatta was a possible winner of the Classic. With no offense
to you or JB, I really did not need the TGs to make me aware of this. My read of
Zenyatta in this race was that she was stepping up in class a bit at a short
price and would need a perfect trip. These are the type of runners I routinely
exclude from multiple race wagers.
The runner I really fancied in the Classic was Colonel John, who may have moved a
bit early.
Summer Bird\'s four- and five-year old campaigns will be great ones. I predict SB wins a lot more money and probably at least a couple Grade 1s in the next two years.
That horse has some speed and stamina and clearly didn\'t take to the surface.
Respectfully disagree.
Leamas
4. It is no more sensible to diminish the accomplishments of Zenyatta in the Classic because some of the eastern dirt horses were disadvantaged on the synthetic surface than it would to diminish the accomplishments of prior BC Classic winners because all the great European Grade 1 turf horses were disadvantaged by racing on dirt. Zenyatta still beat a boatload of multiple Grade 1 winning turf and synthetic horses from the US and Europe that were very suited to the surface in addition to those dirt horses.
-----------------------------------------------------
What? That\'s not at all an apples to apples comparison. It\'s absolutely to diminish the accomplishments of a prior BC winner winning over a Euro turf horse who is disadvantaged on the dirt. The key word is disadvantaged! Give them all their preferred surface, and then it\'s horses taking on each other on the level playing field of them all racing on their best footing.
Zenyatta is by far the best synthetic horse in the world, and she got to run the BC Classic on synthetic, to the decided disadvantage of all the dirt horses in that field. The other synth horses in the field were far inferior to her. Rip Van Winkle was decidedly overrated (as his as Mastercraftsman\'s runs proved). She beat G3ish turf horses in the second and third spots.
Zenyatta\'s a magnificent horse, but this field wasn\'t all that. If you didn\'t know that going in, it was impossible to miss coming out.
Forgive me, I called Gio a G3ish turf horse, memory slipped who finished 2nd. Obviously, he\'s very much a G1 turf horse. So, edit to say two turf horses.
Michael,
Yes, Michael just an opinion. Agreed. Some people on this board that I think are good handicappers like yourself, surprise the hell out of me with your view on this. So, I went back tonight and watched both fillies races throughout the year. Also looked at their figures. Beyers and TG. I don\'t see it. I don\'t think the HOY vote should be close, and with the evidence that is there, hard to believe the two are close in ability. Have you forgotten all close finishes for Zenyatta against tin cans? Rachel obliterates the competition. Are we going to sweep that all under the carpet by saying \"that is the nature of synthetic racing (close finishes). Yet no adjustment for the fact that all of Zenyatta\'s accomplishments save one race, were in California, on synthetic?
As for \"shouting distance\", I say Rachel wins those races by more than 2 lengths. So, no 1:51 or 1:53. A couple ticks behind Rachel, but a non-threatening second.
My opinion is that Mine That Bird and Summer Bird will not win another graded
stakes in their careers.
------------------------
So, after the one-hit wonder won the Belmont, winning the Travers and then the JCGC proved his flukeness?
Richie,
I can understand singles on both Conduit & Goldikova for sure. I thought the post and short odds on Goldikova were worth a shot trying to beat her. She\'s a monster! No offense and I apologize for the tone I was just shocked that Zenyatta could be left off a ticket. I did not like her but put her on my losing tic.
Court Vision,Delagator,Cowboy Cal, Zacinto,Gladiatorous x Mastercraftsman,Midshipman x Conduit, Telling,Precious Passion x Richards Kid, Colonel John, Einstein, Zenyatta
Zenyatta is 17 1/2 hands--as big or bigger than Man 0\' War was. Her stride is such that at 10 furlongs, she can have a kick on a surface that doesn\'t favor speed. Put her on a fast dirt track at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 and she\'s 3-4 lengths back of Rachel. Now, a good or slightly slower surface at 1 1/4 and she\'s even money against Rachel for me.
Mine That Bird looked like he was flying in the Derby once, too, but the conditions and pace had to be right...
Leamas.
Leamas:
Brilliant! 3YO Summer Bird descends from a sire line (Grindstone/Birdstone) whose
work on the racetrack was done before they reached the age of 4.
Hope he continues on but I am skeptical.
Good point on the sire line and there\'s not much data on Birdstone yet ? But if Summer Bird has anywhere near the typical development from 3-4 for a colt he\'ll be a monster next year. He\'s already run a negative 4 and that\'s scary !
Let\'s hope he develops into a top handicap horse and were not having this debate next year about HOY.
\"A least one person I spoke with thought the addition of Lasix was a
negative, which I am still shaking my head at\"
Bee,
More than one trainer that you would respect would tell you that there are instances when Lasix \"dulls\" certain horses.
Beth,
Can you comment on your experience with salix \"dulling\" one. Any educated guess at why.Thanks
Mike
If you even look at the horse, you\'ll see he\'s no Birdstone and seems to get more from the Summer Squall side. He\'s no little one-run shortlegs. If you can find, it, his trainer made some remarks about him in DRF--before the Belmont, I think?
Leamas.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> Yes, Michael just an opinion. Agreed. Some
> people on this board that I think are good
> handicappers like yourself, surprise the hell out
> of me with your view on this. So, I went back
> tonight and watched both fillies races throughout
> the year. Also looked at their figures. Beyers
> and TG. I don\'t see it. I don\'t think the HOY
> vote should be close, and with the evidence that
> is there, hard to believe the two are close in
> ability. Have you forgotten all close finishes
> for Zenyatta against tin cans? Rachel obliterates
> the competition. Are we going to sweep that all
> under the carpet by saying \"that is the nature of
> synthetic racing (close finishes). Yet no
> adjustment for the fact that all of Zenyatta\'s
> accomplishments save one race, were in California,
> on synthetic?
>
> As for \"shouting distance\", I say Rachel wins
> those races by more than 2 lengths. So, no 1:51
> or 1:53. A couple ticks behind Rachel, but a
> non-threatening second.
First of all Jim, you\'ve made an outrageous statement here that cannot go unchallenged - I\'m a good handicapper??? I handicapped the BC for an entire week and got virtually nothing correct. Also lost the few races I bet at CD and Aqu. Can\'t think of anyone worse at the moment.
As for Z\'s close finishes, Mike Smith said he used 80% of what he had in the tank on Saturday. Mike Smith never tried to win by a pole or run a fast speed figure, he just did what he had to do to win the races.
Rachel put up some huge figures this year, and if that\'s going to be your main point of reference, she wins. You have every right to point to the Oaks and Haskell figures among others and call this great filly the champ. But Rachel looked beatable to me in her two most difficult challenges, the Preakness and Woodward. I\'m of the opinion that those two races reflect her true ability best, and that Zenyatta was good enough to run her down in a 9 or 10f race on dirt or poly.
Richiebee,
I guess we will just have to disagree. If you really feel that Summer Bird is over-rated, we \"irreconcilable differences\". Belmont, Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup. As fast as Curlin on the figures, and seemed to have added the dimension of tactical speed as the horse progressed through his 3 year old season. I think this horse is really really good. I think the Japan Cup dirt is a bad idea and Tim Ice may be squeezing the lemon a bit hard but he is the trainer, not me.
Agree that we still may not have seen the best of Quality Road, but I wonder how long we can say that without seeing something better? I guess I need to see one sub-par race on dirt, before I give up on that horse.
Thanks for rubbing some more salt in my \"futures bets\" wounds :) I was almost over that now........