Hello. My name is Monmouth Guy, and I can\'t stop myself from betting dirt horses on pro-ride.
Life is Sweet destroyed my pick 3, pick 4 and pick 6.
I need to convince myself not to bet horses whose last prep was on dirt tomorrow, no matter what their pattern or number looks like.
Good point. I guess the dirt to Syn angle was 0 for 6 today running its two year string to 34 (guess). I think there were 28 last year.
So what do I do with D\'Funnybone, Pyro, Summer Bird and Quality Road
You do what you want, but I am tossing, despite the fact that I would be betting all of them with both fists if these races were held at Belmont or Churchill.
Which it is not.
The Pletcher 2YO Filly Devil May Care could barely standup on the surface. You can bet she will not be running in next years Ashland.
So what about the Classic? I assume you\'re tossing Summer Bird, Girolamo, Regal Ransom and Quality Road? Are you going to bet Zenyatta with both fists following Life is Sweet\'s thoroughly dominant performance?
I will be using her along with those who have run well on comparable surfaces. If you bought the seminar, there shouldn\'t be any surprises. If Rail Trip was here, I might have had to borrow a third fist.
Read what I said about Trips and Pace. LIS ran great today but benefited from a lot of horses early chasing a 45 pace.
The general public will bet Zenyatta with both fists. She is 5-2 at the most.
I think there are a few, like Gio Ponte who can out kick her home at five times the price.
You certainly have a point about trips and pace, but do you think it matters if a horse doesn\'t like the surface? They could run the Ladies Classic 10 times, and I don\'t think there is a pace scenario or a trip that would have resulted in Music Note on top of the board.
A few thoughts -
Life Is Sweet did what she did the last time she ran in a 9f race at SA with some pace. The favorites ran quickly in the early/middle stages, and slow late. The horses last and 2nd to last around the turn made the exacta at 8 and 14-1.
The sprint was formful imo, with pace and the fine ride from Julian the deciding factors.
Juddmonte did a fine job keeping the pace somewhat reasonable for their star Midday in the f&m turf. Queally rode an aggressive, and very smart race on the winner. Jim had it right - many of these Oasis Dream\'s love the firmer tirf.
Biofuel, 20-1, was best, or very close to it, and came in 4th. Post 12 was a killer.
Tapitsfly and Rose Catherine had the tactical speed and ran 1-2 over the very hard turf course, which often happens in 1m races without a ton of speed at SA.
A fun day of racing imo.
Agreed for the ones who will not like it. And for those who would it came down to trips and pace and that included the turf race Midday won.
And that is how it is going to playout again tomorrow.
Your comment about the juvenile turf race bodes well for a certain 20-1 shot tomorrow that I am beginning to think is a single.
MonmouthGuy Wrote:
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> They could run the Ladies Classic 10 times,
> and I don\'t think there is a pace scenario
> or a trip that would have resulted in Music
> Note on top of the board.
I respectfully disagree.
Watch a replay of the race, and focus on Rajiv Maragh\'s ride on Music Note. I\'ll narrate it, in a way that represents what I think Maragh might have been thinking -- if he was thinking at all, that is:
\"Hey -- Careless Jewel is leaving -- I\'d better go get her...wait she\'s going too fast, I\'d better back off...la de da, hey, what\'s over there?...oops, fell asleep there for a minute, we are 6th now. Uh oh, I\'m too far back...better get moving...oops! wall of horses, nowhere to go...Look, something shiny!...I\'m in the 4-path now coming out of the turn for home...hey! let\'s dive left, almost at a 45 degree angle, there\'s some room down by rail...hey, how long is this race, anyw...aw, crap, it\'s over!\"
Absolutely BRUTAL ride.
Then watch the ride Gomez gives Life Is Sweet. Cool Hand Garrett was biding his time, waiting to make the one and only move that counted.
I like Maragh, I really do...but he crapped his pants on this one, Switch trips (and riders), and Music Note wins, easy. Maragh was a little lost boy out there today, and Gomez was simply The Man. Best argument I can think of for taking the very best jock available on \"big days\" -- loyalty be damned.
Very fair points. I watched the same strange trip and attributed to her not handling the surface. It very well may have been the ride.
Music Note had already run a ZERO over this same SA course. You can\'t attribute her showing to \"didn\'t like the surface.\" Hindsight being 20/20 you see the bounce off the two big races before this one. C\'est la vie. But you can\'t say it was the synth issue for MN.
HP
HP Wrote:
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> Music Note had already run a ZERO over this same
> SA course. You can\'t attribute her showing to
> \"didn\'t like the surface.\" Hindsight being 20/20
> you see the bounce off the two big races before
> this one. C\'est la vie. But you can\'t say it was
> the synth issue for MN.
>
> HP
Music Note did not run a \'0\' over the surface. Music Note ran a full point slower than Life Is Sweet ran the last time that one went 9f over the surface. A full point slower.
You can say she is faster this year, but you can also say she had a tougher trip this year.
fwiw, of the top 4 finishers in each race(9) yesterday 28 of 36 came from posts 4 and greater with the rail finishing in the top 4 only twice.
Good luck everyone!
I agree with you, but this horse is now around 9-1 in Europe.
Michael - Music Note - 10/24/08 SA - Zero and three quarters. You\'re not fussing about the rounding off are you? I\'d have to stand by what I said...you can\'t hang her performance on not liking the surface, either by the numbers or the pattern she showed last year. I\'d lean more towards blaming it on the \"bounce\" (or perhaps the ride as another poster has said).