There is more downside than up. Also there is precedent more on that later.
The owners and trainer, rightfully so, are fully flattered by and proud of her 13 for 13 record. She has proven time after time to be a great mare and needs to be rewarded with the bar at a level where she is able to showcase that once more. Wanting to keep that record perfect should be a priority not a residual goal.
She nor anyone else will win Horse of the Year. That contest is over. People had their chance to take a shot. Some did and lost and some did not. Zenyatta by going in the Classic has everything to lose and little to gain.
Personal Ensign went into the Breeders Cup with a 12 for 12 record and a chance to run in the Classic and beat Alysheba and Co and win Horse of the Year. Except nobody insisted that she had to. Why the double standard? The fact Personal Ensign had face and beaten colts once before should have made the case even stronger. But to my knowledge nobody seemed to be pushing for it like they seem to be with Zenyatta.
The connections need to go with what they know and run in the Distaff. And when she wins people need to stand up and cheer. Her place in racings Hall of Fame has long been on reserve.
Send in the hounds.........
An additional point I failed to add.
How big is the precedent for Filly\'s running in the Classic and what is the track record of success? A Jolypha 3rd is about it.
If a talking point is the Classic needs a star and she can provide that. Stars carry their aura wherever they go.
That void is not her problem............
This article from the SI Vault provides some insight into the mindset circa 1988. She beat the boys, why drink from that cup again it seems to say ... And PE did have to face a worthy foe in the Distaff ... no such beast stands in the way of Zenyatta ...
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1067914/index.htm
Silver,
The difference for Zenyatta vs Personal Ensign is plain and simple.Home court and average competition.With the possible exception of the Europeans,who does she have to fear.A golden opportunity to take a shot in the Classic against a common bunch,a no brainer.
Mike
Actually there are others.
Personal Ensigns trainer had TWO colts in the Classic. One that had a BIG shot (ran second) and another who had a punchers chance (ran 4th?).
Also if Personal Ensign ran in the Distaff and won and there was an upset in the Classic she would have won Horse of the Year.
Zenyatta is probably 10-1 or 12-1 to win the Classic and will go off at about a third of that. Maybe less. She is odds on in the Distaff even though both Spinster runners could be problematic.
There is no breeding enhancement. The Classic is a terrible spot home track or not.
Not really interested in comparing PE vs Z.As far as this BC is concerned, Z is in the perfect spot which you determine by how well she is doing and the weak competition.
Mike
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Actually there are others.
>
> Personal Ensigns trainer had TWO colts in the
> Classic. One that had a BIG shot (ran second) and
> another who had a punchers chance (ran 4th?).
>
> Also if Personal Ensign ran in the Distaff and won
> and there was an upset in the Classic she would
> have won Horse of the Year.
>
> Zenyatta is probably 10-1 or 12-1 to win the
> Classic and will go off at about a third of that.
> Maybe less. She is odds on in the Distaff even
> though both Spinster runners could be problematic.
>
>
> There is no breeding enhancement. The Classic is a
> terrible spot home track or not.
How about just for the $3M purse difference?
60% of $5.0M = $3.0M
60% of $2.0M = $1.2M
Difference = $1.8M
Probability of winning one event with a bigger purse-10%
Probability of winning one event with a smaller purse-70%
What do they say?
A bird in the hand is worth $1.8M in the bush..........
Don\'t believe Jerry Moss is too worried about the purse money.Z\'s value is substantially set win or lose in the BC Classic or Distaff,although a Classic win could add some value. Doubt she\'ll be for sale anyway nor will her offspring.
Mike
I\'m probably the biggest \"Zen\" fan on this board, and I couldn\'t agree more with your very wise words. No reason to change the way they\'ve managed her career now; there is much more to lose than to gain,and yes they had their shot at Rachel and didn\'t take it, so what\'s the point now? I fully believe she would have beaten Rachel in the Woodward (given the set up and the way the race panned out), but that opportunity (if it ever really existed) is past, and horse of the year was settled with that race. Furthermore, the way the main track plays at Santa Anita, (dead? heavy?) whatever you want to call it, I don\'t think she\'d have any shot to rally the way she does against top males - it\'s difficult to close much if at all on that track - she beats the girls because she\'s so much better, but she\'s not that much better than the males and certainly not all those Euro\'s that would come over. Great post.
Great horses deserve the chance to race outside of restricted company, and I do believe Zenyatta is great. She belongs in the Classic.
I will be shocked if they go in the Distaff.
Silver Charm and Dana, she has more to gain and less to lose in the Classic.
She loses to colts - no big deal, she\'s still two-time champion older female and a lock for the Hall of Fame.
If she loses to fillies, her cred will be further questioned.
The Euro\'s are better than you think, and they are poly-track specialists, e.g. Gitano Hernando. I don\'t believe she\'d have any shot against halfway decent male Euro\'s. Doesn\'t matter who they are, so many horses over there that can\'t cut it on grass, but love synthetics, and with the increasing number of syhnthetic tracks over there, these horses are just waiting in the wings (and think about how much better your average horse trainers on these European circuits are compared with the standard American pharmacist-trainers - you\'re kidding yourself if you think we can compete with them). Most of the American horses who run on synthetic tracks are so inferior to these - the Euro\'s will eat them for breakfast, Zen being no exception.
FWIW, I agree with Ill-Bred 1,000%. Who cares about her beating fillies not named Rachel?
Dana,
Provided she navigates the course safely there isn\'t a losing situation for her
and the connections.She\'s solidified her rep and her progeny\'s rep.So,as a handicapper where is the value?Is getting beat in the Classic a better proposition
than getting beat in the Ladies?
mjs
Oh, I hope John Sheriffs continues to show us his yellow streak and Zenyatta goes in the ladies classic. What price could I get on Careless Jewel?
I\'d have to see the field for the Ladies. I wasn\'t saying she wouldn\'t or couldn\'t win that race. That\'s another discussion entirely. There may or may not be value in trying to beat her. Sometimes there\'s more value in multi-race exotics if you think she can\'t get beat.
Keep in mind one thing though.
Last year\'s Breeder\'s Cup had the second most European starters of all time (24) in the most races ever (14) with the most winners ever (5)*. You gotta think many more Euros will be coming this year, and their success will be even greater.They know American horses who do most of their running on synthetics are mostly inferior animals, not good enough (or suited) to race on grass and not good enough to face the really top level horses who run on dirt. Couple that with the tougher rules in California on drugs (both legal and illegal) and you have a solid Euro runner who has used no drugs and now gets Lasix against these crappy American runners, and you\'ve got a huge payday coming.
*source Thoroughbred Times (Sept. 19, page 15)
Dana:
You seem to be missing one possibility-- that she runs in the Ladies, goes off at
3/5, and gets beat by one of your Euros.
I am not familiar with the Euro fillies/mares who might take a shot against Zenny
if she goes in the Friday race.
Frankel/Juddmonte\'s Proviso pretty much dominated a Grade 2 quality stakes field
Saturday at Keeneland, though Mushka, trained by \"20%\" Bill Mott (as in he is
only 20% the horseman that Rick Dutrow is)(query how many races did Benny the
Bull and Kip Deville won since the Tricky barn went steroid free?) might have
gotten a better fig off a wide journey. Proviso\'s effort was certainly good enough
to encourage Euro participation in the Friday race.
Two hypotheticals for the sake of this debate.
1.) If Zenyatta runs her race and finishes 5th in the Classic what does this do to her stature or mystique. Nice mare who was only beating up on average fillys her whole career on her home tracks and couldn\'t handle real competition?
2.) Sherriffs said whether or not she runs in the Classic depends on how she is doing. So if she goes in the Ladies Classic am I supposed to assume she is not doing good?
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Two hypotheticals for the sake of this debate.
>
> 1.) If Zenyatta runs her race and finishes 5th in
> the Classic what does this do to her stature or
> mystique. Nice mare who was only beating up on
> average fillys her whole career on her home tracks
> and couldn\'t handle real competition?
An expansion of your hypothetical, for even further debate:
Lets say she finishes fifth, beaten less than a length, after drawing
an outside post in a 14 horse event, closing furiously after being wide
all the way around?
(Don\'t get upset P-Dub. The Smith Wide schtick is almost like TG urban
legend now).
Hey Ritchie you brought it up I didn\'t.
But to your point at least the guys who took her at 3-1 can go home feeling better that they bet the best horse.........
If she finishes 5th in the Classic, she gets a pass because it\'s males. The only thing they\'ll hear negative is that Rachel did it and Z didn\'t, but the connections are already hearing that and it doesn\'t seem to bother them. If she somehow wins the Classic she accomplishes something truly historic. If she loses the Distaff, then it\'s \"look what happened when she finally faced some real competition\". If she wins, then it\'s \"yeah, but it\'s her home track, she\'s great but no Rachel\". The Classic is the right move from both a sporting and a historical perspective.
Here\'s a link to the Racing Post\'s survey of the British books:
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/popup_pricebox.sd?pricebox_uid=2420285
It may be telling that there appear to be only two Euros planning on making the trip for the Distaff (assuming Rainbow View and Sky Lighter, both at 6-1, are Euros ... EDIT: Euro Rainbow View running this weekend at Woodbine). Tells me that the Euro horsemen think Z is running on friday and that she will be tough to beat, and I can\'t argue against either point with much conviction.
The two best fillies making the trip appear to be Dar Re Mi and Goldikova. The books have DRM favored over Forever Together in the F&M Turf and also at between 4 and 5-1 in the Turf. She was considered for the Arc but did not run so she comes into this rested. She won the Pretty Polly at the Curragh in June (an early \"win and yer in\" race) and the connections said right then that they wanted to make the trip, so, presumably, they\'ve been pointing to this. A tough throwout in whichever race she runs, considering the state of the American 12F turfers.
Goldikova might be the best Euro to take a shot against, as she figures to go off at odds-on based on that flashy win last year (all the books have her odds-on). But she\'s had a very busy summer for a horse being pointed for the BC and lost at 7F (on good ground) at Longchamp the Saturday of Arc weekend. Bad time for her explosive kick to have gone missing.
Wrongly,
I\'m not very good at predicting odds.Suppose She\'d be 3rd or 4th choice?
Looking forward to the sheets!!Btw,did you check out STS\'s sheet?
mjs
Dana,
The more the merrier!!Hopefully fat pools with great underlays.Did you get the
chance to see STS\'s sheet yet?
mjs
Dar Re Mi was 5th in the Arc...
Wrongly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Oh, I hope John Sheriffs continues to show us his
> yellow streak and Zenyatta goes in the ladies
> classic. What price could I get on Careless
> Jewel?
Don\'t forget Icon project and Music note who looks like a killer too..
Damn! How did I miss that? OK, toss \'em both. Thanks!
Are you guys kiddinng me? I mean really. As a racing fan I want to see the best horses run against eachother...period! Why wouldn\'t you want to give Zenyatta the chance to prove how good she really is...what do you care if she loses? It\'s not your money or reputation!! They\'ve already dodged enough with this horse..bring it on! This is a game where there\'s such a lack of real excitement when it comes to big matchups...and you\'d rather see Z beat Cocoa Beach again...please.. And yeah..of course she likely wouldn\'t win the classic..but it would create a good betting opportunity for us...and as gamblers..isn\'t that what we want? And the distaff becomes a lot more open too.
You guys didn\'t think I would let this thread go without a long winded response, did you??
Richie - You are probably my favorite poster around here, no offense taken (Got a chuckle too). BTW, ask those that backed Indian Firewater last week how wide Smith took the winner of that race. The answer is...not very. Urban legend indeed...
Dana - You are the self proclaimed \"biggest Zen fan on this board\" (one of the biggest would have been more accurate, Smalltimer and myself have talked her up often around here and along with defending Smith have taken quite a bashing), yet you don\'t think she can compete with the males? You say that \"I don\'t think she\'d have any shot to rally the way she does against top males - it\'s difficult to close much if at all on that track\". Did you watch last year\'s race?? The winner was 9th at the 3/4 call, the place horse 8th, the show horse 11th, and Curlin (4th) was 7th. I\'m trying to be kind here, but that statement is hard to believe. Gayego just won a sprint race rallying from 9th. I think its fair to say that horses can win up on or near the pace, but I would also say that horses can also close on that surface.
Quite a debate here regarding which race provides her a bigger \"safety net\". Hard to see what racing in the Ladies\' Classic would do for her. If she wins, big deal. If she should happen to lose....the entire front page of this forum will be plastered with comments that she is a fraud.
If she should run in the Classic and win, she should receive strong consideration for HOY. I just don\'t agree with the notion that Rachel has it locked up. When you talk about her accomplishments, many note that she \"has beaten males\", and also \"has beaten older males\". She is also the first filly to win the Preakness Stakes, and won the Ky Oaks in record setting fashion. She has also had a lot of things go her way too:
- Several races (Fairgrounds Oaks, Ky Oaks, Haskell) were run on off tracks, a surface she relishes. These surfaces also produce finishes where horses are strung out for a variety of reasons. Some just don\'t like it, some don\'t like the kickback, etc.. Nevertheless, she won and did so impressively.
- Beat a mediocre group of horses in the Preakness. Of the 12 horses she ran against, what have any of them done since?? Not much.
- Beat 3yo males in the slop over a speed favoring Monmouth surface.
- Beat \"older males\" consisting of Macho Again and Bullsbay. What would these 2 go off at if they ran in the Classic?
Asmussen and Jackson are to be commended for running her ambitiously, albeit under conditions and competition that were optimal.
My point is this....if Rachel is going to be given credit for being the first to win the Preakness, beating older males (and she should ABSOLUTELY be given that credit).....then why shouldn\'t Zenyatta - if she should win the Classic - be given just as much consideration if she also does something never done before...such as being the first female to win the Breeders\' Cup Classic??
You tell me what is more impressive - beating up second rate 3yos, beating second rate older horses, beating 3YO males over a speed favoring sloppy track - or beating horses coming in from all over the world, horses that many have said will wipe the floor with the best American horses?? If, and its a very big if, she should happen to win the Classic she will have defeated much more than Summer Bird (who will be in the race), Macho Again, and Bullsbay.
If she runs and doesn\'t win, its a slam dunk for RA. Duh. But this notion that she has HOY wrapped up is ridiculous.
Rachel is great, fantastic, historical, exciting, riveting, and many more superlatives. I am not saying she does not deserve the accolades. I get goosebumps watching her race, and I root for her every single time. It may sound like I am bashing her accomplishments, but I am just trying to keep her record in perspective compared to Zenyatta\'s if she should also accomplish something never been done before.
Alright, let me have it.
My question is what happens to the value when they get rid of the poly tracks in California? Why would anyone pay big$ for offsring of a poly specialist?
Richie,
Love this line about 20% Bill Mott, classic
>Alright, let me have it.
>P-Dub
Let me step up to the plate.
If Summer Bird or Zenyatta wins the Classic who will have accomplished more THIS YEAR. Last years wins count for nothing in regards to Zenyatta in this particular vote. Great body of work but there should be no rollover from year-to-year. This is Horse of the Year not a Lifetime Achievement Award.
So the real question is who is currently second behind Rachel. Zenyatta or Summer Bird
Paul,
You make valid points in regards to RA\'s races. Beating Macho again a desperate head while getting 8 lbs was an overrated performance imo. The decision to take on a slow group while getting 8 lbs was basically running out the clock, and it worked. The horse of the year race is indeed over. Zenyatta could have run in the Woodward and swooped by that field, but they chose not to run. If StS came over and Zenyatta beat that monster, it would be a closer call. But he\'s retired, and they just didn\'t do enough throughout the year to match Rachel\'s accomplishments, even if Z wins the Classic.
Paul,
I think if Z wins the BC Classic,there could be conversation re HOY,otherwise it\'s Rachel by a pole.If Z wins the BC Classic, it may not be a landslide HOY for Rachel but she\'ll win.Incidentally,I could care less about who wins awards.
Summer Bird has little chance at HOY,since Rachel defeated him in the Haskell.
Regarding who Rachel beat,some were colts/horses who were much faster and far more accomplished than any of the competition that Z has faced all year so far.Voters may not look at speed figs, but on the track, Rachel was flat out faster than Z.I will alibi for Z\'s synth figs in that she is mostly in slow paced races which does not lend itself to fast numbers.
A little West Coast bias re Z,buddy?
Mike
I don\'t need to \"let you have it\". You like a horse. You\'re entitled. My standard reply is, at what price?
Yes, there are many unknowns at the moment, but I suppose we have a general idea who would show, so as of this date, what price would you need on her to make a bet?
I saw his races on tape. I don\'t need to see the sheet! All I can say is WOW!
Rick B my response was not a \"LET ME HAVE IT\"
This is a debate. I am just not so sure Zenyatta is even in second now for HOY. So she would have to leap from third to first and the top competitor she will never have faced or beaten.
You make a lot of great points. I was talking about the track surface this meet so far, not last year, per se. I think it is a very tiring, dead track, and I believe (unless they change something) that when you have a dead track, it is hard to close from way back and hard to go wire to wire. The ones who win, kind of stalk and hope not to fall down late - whoever is still standing at the end and not too far back usually wins. I wouldn\'t use Curlin as an example. He hated the track, period. As far as Gayego, that was one of the weakest field ever assembled for a Grade I sprint race in America. Ask yourself if he would have run by 50K claimers like he did? Plus, in a one turn race you can get away with that move - you\'re not likely getting away with that in a route race. As far as your arguments on HOY, I freaking agree with you, but you\'re not convincing too many others. Rachel was a phenom. People who never get too involved in racing fell in love with her - people from all over the world. There\'s no way in hell, no matter what Z does (and as I\'ve said, I\'d be shocked if she goes in the classic) that Rachel isn\'t horse of the year. How can you even debate. You\'re arguing facts against lore.
What I\'m saying about Z is, as much as I love her, she is not running by top quality males the way she runs by the females she\'s been facing. You\'re asking her to do too much. She\'s be facing a field so much tougher than any field Rachel ever faced and Z might be close to those top males but she\'s not superior. That\'s my point.
I was responding to P-Dub. I should have quoted him, for context. Sorry for the confusion.
Dana,
Fair comments regarding the surface. Hopefully we\'ll get to see just how well Z would stack up against horses far superior to anything Rachel has raced against.
Silver,
My long time sparring partner. You can\'t tell me that winning the BC Classic wouldn\'t put her squarely in the picture. Stack a winning Classic performance against what Rachel has done, and that includes factoring in WHO she beat (which I have already talked about) and you do have a justifiable argument for Z. The older males she beat are nice horses but far less compared to the Classic field, the 3YO males she beat in the Preakness have come back to do nothing, and the Haskell was over a speed favoring sloppy track. Yes its admirable, but I don\'t know why some of you just dismiss the Classic as vitrually non-existant.
Michael D,
Winning BC performances have vaulted many horses to HOY (You obviously know this, not being insulting here). She\'s also won other races this year, they do count. Add the Classic, against a world wide field, thats got to count for something. Thanks for seeing my point of view, and I look forward to your BC thoughts as the day gets closer.
Rick,
I would need at least 5/1, and I wouldn\'t get it. She\'ll be no more than 3/1.
Mike,
A bit of a WC bias?? Sure, but its not blind. I think my points are valid. Agree with your thoughts regarding IF Z wins the Classic. Regarding figures, you make a great point about figs on synthetics compared to dirt. Lets see what happens in the Classic before we dismiss Z as not having beaten \"faster\" colts.
Thank you all for your thoughts. Whatever you think about the HOY debate or which race Z should run in, it makes for interesting discussion. And since we can\'t change the fact the BC is being run over synthetics again. lets enjoy the anticipation of the BC and relish seeing horses from all over the world compete. Just got my tickets in the mail yesterday and can\'t wait to get there.