Hi
Yesterday in the 7th the winner had an 0-2-x pattern
By the stats he was only going to run a new top at 5 % or pair at 22%
Is the 0-2-x changing?
The 0-2-X isn\'t changing but variables such as age, time between races, surfaces at times, are variables which increase greatly and effectively, the manifestations of this sequence.
Additionally, remember the Thoro-Pattern \"stats\" are a mechanical measure only relative to the last three races for the pattern and the prior six to generate a base from which to measure and absent a break of more than a year, time is irrelevant. The 0-2-X falls under the \"Top-Off-X\" pattern \"stats\" to which you refer above but is only part of that category. So the percentages do not purely reflect an 0-2-X.
The 0-2-X tends to be thought of as more dear, precious in the sense that the pattern occurred in a cogent campaign or time sequence and in such it was observed that runners often improve off the X, sometimes running a new top or pairing up (2yos, 3yos more often than older horses--younger horses are more dynamic) usually at a price since the X looks bad and players tend to interpret form off the last race. Observed 0-2-Xs were generally overlays and over time if bet would yield a positive ROI.
Motor Patrol, the horse in question, technically conformed to an 0-2-X (and Top-Off-X) , but timing-wise not really, since the 0 came over 5 months ago and he hadn\'t run in 63 days. In others word it\'s hard to make the claim the pattern yielded or influenced his performance yesterday since the time elapsed is huge and he more than likely had enough time to recover and recuperate, regardless of pattern. We\'ll never know. But it looks good for the 0-2-X. That said there were reasons to like the horse--fastest, good timing and square price. Chicken-egg argument.
Interestingly Beneath the Crown, race 1 and Pernice, race 5, in addition to Motor Patrol, also showed 0-2-X patterns, technically. Beneath the Crown went off at 36-1 and finished 5th, Pernice was 5-1 and finished 2nd and Motor Patrol was 9.9-1 and won. Bet all three and you got a bit more than 5-2.
Be discerning.
wow well written thanks i was lucky to have motor partol
hope someday to say hi to you. learned to read the sheets from king t when they were still hand written
have fun and thanks for the help