ok, since the JC looks like the only real race on the card tomorrow at Belmont, I figured I would take a stab at an analysis for that one.
Sette e Mezzo - tough for me to figure why this one is in this race even though he is very talented. He has the numbers and pattern and pedigree to be a graded stake winning turf horse and here he is against the best of the east coast based older dirt horses. He ran a buried very good number in his first lifetime start which was on the dirt so he CAN run on the dirt. Note that dirt effort seemed to knock him out for an extended period though. He has a chance to pick up a minor piece of this at a price if he jumps up turf to dirt (which is possible given the first lifetime dirt number) but I can\'t see him winning.
Macho Again - He finally ran a decent figure in his last race when he had everything go his way against Rachael. He has a very good pattern and now he has at least 1 figure that makes him competitive for the top spot here BUT, 1) this is his 3rd race in 10 weeks, 2) he flew back and forth to Kentucky both times after his Saratoga races which can take it out of a horse, and 3) He isn\'t a true 1 1/4 horse. He does his best work at 1 1/8 and he may hang a bit in the stretch going the extra 8th of a mile. I think there\'s a decent chance he finishes out of the top 2 spots and the exacta will pay more than it should if he finishes out of it given the West Point money that comes in on this horse.
Summer Bird - Ran a very good figure in the Travers and witht he weight break comes in here several points faster than Macho (although slower than Quality Road who also gets the weight). However, he does have a history of slight reactions to his big efforts. He reacted in the Kentucy Derby (less than expected but still a reaction) to his big figure in the Arkansas Derby. He reacted to his big effort in the Belmont (again small but still a reaction) so its reasonable that he reacts again here after the big number in the Travers. It\'s reasonable that he moves back a point and a half which still puts him ahead of the older horses with the weight but leaves him vulnerable if Quality Road can run his race.
Tizway - Has one number (2 races back) that would make him competitive her but that was going a 1 turn mile. He does have the pedigree to get the distance and we know the Tiznow\'s get alot better with age according to the TGI so this one can\'t be counted out at a price. A real class test for him but if we are getting the right price, it makes sense to use him in the exacta becasue his best is basically the same as Macho\'s best but we will obviously get a much much better price.
Dry Martini - Has some figures to run back to from his 4 and 5 year old campaigns and we know he likes a wet track which is expected tomorrow. However, he hasn\'t run a figure as a 6 year old which would put him in the top spot here and so I think he\'s a play against given he will take alot of money from folks who will play him as a wet track specialist.
Asiatic Boy - Has some good numbers to run back to from earlier this year. He may have had an excuse in the last as he got sick before the Whitney and wasn\'t firing on all cylindars in the Woodward. If that last made him tighter, he could get a pice underneath and again, is very good value compared to Macho and he has more big numbers to run back to. I will use him underneath in the exatca.
Quality Road - Has run 2 figures in here faster than than anyone else\'s best and he gets weight from all except SB. The big questions are whether he really wants 1 1/4 and if he\'s had enough time to fully recover from the monster effort first back at the Spa. I suggested on the board playing against him in the Travers because he didn\'t have the foundation but we can argue that the last gave him the foundation and that he\'s the play in here as the 3rd choice.
So, I will go with
Quality Road over Suummer Bird and protect underneath with Tizway and Asiatic Boy.
Thoughts?
Yeah, here\'s my thought, and I\'m not offering a handicapping opinion.
Why bet exotics? If you expect SB to bounce, why use him at all as the favorite? If you are playing QR to run his top, why play those older horses on top of him when they would need 4 point new tops to beat him? If he doesn\'t run his top, he could run anything, including an X, so second doesn\'t seem like the place to use him.
Did I miss the rule where if they offer exotics you have to play them? They don\'t even do that in the contests...
very fair but my thought is that SB has bounced a little, not alot off the last two tops and a little bounce makes him second AND, the the exacta pool offers value because of the West Point Macho Maniacs who absolutely pound him in the exacta pools.
That said, may just be better off betting QR to win if he\'s really gonna be 7/2.
Perhaps the recent dismal performance of Hold Me Back indicates that Quality Road, who finished behing HMB, will also perform poorly. And maybe Summer Bird\'s win wasn\'t over such a special group. Taking a 3 year old as a favorite against older horses may not be a wise bet unless you\'re taking Rachel. Sette E Mezzo does seem overmatched, and Macho Again had a tough race last out. Something seems not right with Asiatic Boy and the addition of blinkers looks like an attempt to try something new.
My race analysis is admittedly thru rose colored glasses, but I do think there will be a fast pace with a half(track conditions permitting) in 47 or less. Dry Martini will be sitting last at the head of the stretch and hopefully make a run like he did in the Suburban. Following his poor run in the Whitney, Barclay tongue in cheek said that race was just a prep for the JGC! But he does not seem to like Saratoga, and we know he loves Belmont, wet or dry, and 1 1/4 is his best distance. And I disagree with covelj on him getting bet, I think he will be 8-1, and will play win place and no exotics, JB.
Perhaps QR bounces off of a big effort in the slop at Saratoga off of one 6.5 f race.
The question is: did the Travers improve QR\'s condition?
If the Travers took something out of him, then the speed becomes dangerous in what is basically a one turn race.
Good Luck,
Joe b.