I\'m sure everyone\'s aware of this story already. I hope it happens.
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=4405961
1 1/8 at Belmont, one turn, seems pretty fair to me. A two turn race in my mind would have seriously favored Rachel w/her handiness and tactical speed, but this race seems like it will be fair. Probably won\'t settle the argument either way, but it\'ll be better than the Breeder\'s Cup!
It would settle the argument.
Deadrockstar Wrote:
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> It would settle the argument.
You mean like Sunday Silence beating Easy Goer 3 out of 4 times settled that one??
One race doesn\'t settle anything.
Hi Paul,
I suspect you may be in the Z camp.I\'m not a \"fan\" so to speak and look at such a race for gambling purposes.
For any Z fan, please explain just how Z would defeat Rachel with all things equal and both at the top of their game.
Mike
P-Dub Wrote:
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> You mean like Sunday Silence beating Easy Goer 3
> out of 4 times settled that one??
>
> One race doesn\'t settle anything.
Well I guess this confirms there are Japanese on deserted islands in green fatigues carrying weapons who still believe the war isn\'t over...........
P-Dub-- that\'s exactly right. One horse (or one team) beating another just means they beat them, doesn\'t mean they were better overall, or necessarily even better in that race, for that matter (as those of us who watched Cauthen be inside Velasquez on all 6 turns of the TC in 78 will attest).
Pirates beat the Yanks in the 60 WS in 7 games. Pirates won four one run games, Yanks ouscored them by 30 runs overall. From that, or even from looking at the two lineups, it would be hard to argue the Pirates were the better team.
The whole point of making figures is to be able to answer this type of question about horses.
There was a Japanese soldier who held out on Guadalcanal until something like 1947 or 1948. The battle was over in late 1942. They only found him when he got caught raiding gardens of the local folks. He might have never left!
I don\'t think it will settle the question, but it will be fun to watch!
How could Z win? Many ways.
A lot has to do with the pace in my mind. If Rachel gets too far in front with an easy pace, she\'ll be very tough to run down, but if the pace is fast and the track the typical, deepish Belmont surface, Z\'s huge strides will have her flying late and it will be closer than many of you think. Two turns would favor Rachel, one turn levels the playing field.
Remember, Rachel has never faced any kind of horse, male or female, in Z\'s league, and Z\'s only dirt race was a huge win as she was geared down in typical Rachel-like fashion leaving a champion 7 or so lengths back AND Z was playing at the end of that race wanting to do more with a last 1/16th in around 6 seconds. How many champions did Rachel beat?
You guys are basing all your negative views of Z on numbers that don\'t mean nearly as much as you think. When you\'re assigning a number for a polytrack stakes race that has been run like 2 or 3 times since the track was installed vs. a dirt number for a race run 50 times over 50 years, how can you tell me the polytrack number is right? It\'s just an (in Jerry\'s case) very educated guess. I can believe Rachel is as fast as you say, but you can\'t tell me Z isn\'t because you got a very small sample of races to judge her numbers by. And don\'t tell me you can make an accurate number without a par time.
Dana-- first of all, serious figure makers don\'t use par times. And on figures, Rachel has faced at least four horses in Zenyatta\'s league.
The relevant issue you raise is whether Zenyatta is a better dirt horse, and yes, it is possible she would put in one of those synth to dirt explsions. And it is possible (more than just possible) that Rachel would not run her best race-- they have done a great job spacing her races, but the big efforts figure to eventually take their toll, unless she is a complete freak. (On that note-- if Asmussen holds this filly together for a full campaign after what he did with Curlin, he should go directly to the HOF).
But if Rachel runs her best race, at weight for age, you would be asking Zenyatta to run a neg 5 1/2 to break even, BEFORE any ground loss, which figures to benefit Rachel. That figure wouldn\'t just be better than any filly has ever run, it would put her close to Ghostzapper and Midnight Lute. This falls into the category of \"anything is posible...\"
Not that this undermines your point ... we just do this so that people will assume that everything else you write is true.
The Pirates won a three-run game, a two-run game, and two one-run games, and were outscored cumulatively by 55-27. Not always to the fast or the strong, but it\'s still the way to bet, even with the occasional exception.
Yeah, your buddy in California emailed me about that within 10 minutes. Some people shouldn\'t be allowed to have search engines.
I just wanted to beat Richiebee, who not only remembers Sal Maglie, but also remembers buying a ticket to the Polo Grounds ... to see a polo match!
\"You guys are basing all your negative views of Z on numbers that don\'t mean nearly as much as you think\"
Dana,
Not in my case.If Z had the same numbers,Rachel would still hold a huge tactical advantage. You are talking about a race shape that favors Z to bring them close.How about a race shape that would favor Rachel or even a neutral race shape.
Rachel makes races and runs fast, Z is unable to make a race and has not run that fast to date. The accomplishments of Z are huge, she just has not run as fast as Rachel,and the difference in figs do not quantify Rachel\'s superiority on the racetrack,imo. Lotta W\'s on Z\'s TG figs.
I\'m not a fan, just talking as a bettor.
Mike
I can\'t argue with the huge tactical advantage. If Z is that great, she\'ll overcome it. Like Jerry said something to the effect of in an earlier post, you know Z is going to be wide so right there that\'s a huge edge for Rachel, not even counting her tactical speed.
\"you know Z is going to be wide so right there that\'s a huge edge for Rachel\"
I have rarely seen a subject on this board discussed so thoroughly with less real insight. Dana - if they hook up in a 10 horse field and Rachel is in the 10 hole and Z gets the rail, how do you know Z would be wide? Isn\'t this ridiculous?
It\'s like listening to old people talk about how far they had to walk to school, or old hippies talking about how great the weed was back then. Usually you have to wait until about a week before the race for the inane speculation. This has been going on here for MONTHS!
HP
Silver Charm Wrote:
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> P-Dub Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > You mean like Sunday Silence beating Easy Goer
> 3
> > out of 4 times settled that one??
> >
> > One race doesn\'t settle anything.
>
> Well I guess this confirms there are Japanese on
> deserted islands in green fatigues carrying
> weapons who still believe the war isn\'t
> over...........
You must be one of the hippies still smoking.
So you\'re saying 1 race is the definitive event that tells all?? Nice.
Because as has been proven time and time again, all races are the same. Or do you disagree with the statement??
JB,
Your baseball analogy is right on.
But if a horse beats another 3 out of 4 times, with the 3 wins being on a neutral track and the lone defeat being on the other horse\'s home track, wouldn\'t that be a little different?
You\'re not suggesting that because EG won by 7, and SS won by a combined 2-3, that EG based on cumulative lengths beaten is better??
Since you asked, I\'m saying that on figures EG was better. Whittingham was a better trainer. What people don\'t remember is that in those days the NY preps were 2 weeks apart. EG ran huge in the Gotham, back on 2 weeks in the Wood (another big one), back on 2 weeks in the Derby (off race in the slop-- way off his top), back on 2 weeks in the Preakness (forward move, not a top)-- 4 races in 6 weeks. He finally got 3 weeks before the Belmont-- new top.
Overall, he made 11 starts in 8 months as a 3yo.
You must have some other mare in mind!? So Smith isn\'t going to take Z back to last, let her settle and circle the field like he has in every single start she\'s ever had? What ODDS would you give that she isn\'t a) last at the half mile and b) the widest path of any horse in the race turning for home? That might be a better payoff than either horse! Not like it has mattered much, only means she wins by a nose instead of 5 or 10 lengths. I\'m not knocking Smith (as many here love to do); I mean she\'s a big giant mare with a huge stride and the last thing you ever want is to make her interrupt her run because she gets faster as the race gets longer as the momentum builds, Smith tries mostly not to get in the way of that physical equation and he hasn\'t.
Dana,
Not so sure 1 turn is the more fair test.HP made a good point regarding PP and
ground loss.Imo,Rachel has the best of it going 1 turn.Probably a moot subject
anyhow.What\'s the skinny on Z being sent east? 5/2 against?
mjs
I sure hope you\'re wrong. I mean how can Sheriffs turn down the deal? National TV, huge purse, 50,000 people at Belmont??? This would be one of the great races in thoroughbred history. Could he ever say she was the greatest (or one of) the greatest mares of all time without beating Rachel, never mind the males in the BC classic, for example? You gotta feel for him, I mean managing perhaps the only other major horse in modern times (Personal Ensign was the other, right?) to go undefeated is a lot of pressure and you don\'t want to make a mistake, but I would lose a lot of respect if he avoided this chance. I couldn\'t imagine it really.
Dana,
I sure hope you\'re right that I\'m wrong.JB made a golf analogy in an earlier
post and these two getting it on would be as exciting for me as say Hogan,Nicklaus
and Woods coming down the stretch all tied in a major.Unfortunately in golf we
have to hope it happens whereas in racing all the owners need to do is tee it up.
mjs
Silver,
Most of those guys have passed on by now. It\'s their children who will take up that fight.
NCT
Dave Johnson has been trying to get the Meadowlands to do something a whole lot more interesting than that, and infinitely better for the game. Halftime of Monday night football, on ESPN, Vikings/Packers no less...
I\'ve stated on several occassions that Zenyatta IS coming to run against Rachel, somewhere in the next 4 months.
Regardless of which camp you\'re in, most of the guys on here hope my prediction comes true. This race will generate a ton of interest and smack talking. It\'ll be fun as long as it doesn\'t get too personal. (Which isn\'t likely given the styles of some of the forum posters). If both these runners stay healthy, it is gonna happen.
Nothing is concrete, but, this is a confrontation that absolutely cannot be avoided by the connections, specifically Z\'s connections. A race between the two has to happen in order for Z to be placed in that elite company of great fillies.
In my opinion, should that race occur, the first 7 or 8 furlongs of the race will be nothing new for Rachel or Zenyatta. The last part of the race should be a real eye opener for one of them.
Hey I was smoking that wicked weed for about 9 months. You know the one.
\"Easy Goer is better than Sunday Silence no matter what the results keep coming up.\"
Finally after the last debacle I woke up. Better tactical speed, better agility, better athleticism. Better horse.
At the risk of being thrown off this Board where is that on the Sheet? Why are there Race Shapes in the Product now. Just look at who has the fastest number and the best percentage to hold that figure base on Thoro-Pattern and bet that, right?
It is not that easy or simple and every knowledgable handicapper knows that.
TGJB Wrote:
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> Since you asked, I\'m saying that on figures EG was
> better. Whittingham was a better trainer.
I think you are being a little tough on Shug here. Whittingham had more experience in getting ready for these big races.
Also the Phipps family has always been great to NYRA and very dedicated to those races. A Mile and a Half prep three(?) weeks out of the BC Classic would get somebody removed as the trainer today.
Wow, that\'s really interesting. We need more unique stuff like that. I\'m all for things that attract new fans, as long as they don\'t detract from the game. I always thought great horses in highly competitive events were the best selling point (better than any gimmick). Just play up the drama of the sport itself.
Well said!
IMO,if they race late in the Fall,Zenyatta will win.......Rachel will be on the decline,she\'s been dancing every dance.
Good Point Spa, but I believe the debate is who would win with both at the top of their game.Your observation may well be a betting angle if they meet and Rachel continues to throw big efforts in between.
Can\'t see anyway for Z to prevail over Rachel\'s overwhelming tactical edge, unless she goes over the top from too many efforts.
Mike