JB... I read today that Lion Tamer will run in the Jim Beam/Lane\'s End at Turfway, then get six weeks rest going into the Derby.
While spacing is always a plus, do you feel it\'s the same with a developing 3 yo? It often seems that Derby horses just get on a roll and thrive on the racing while getting stronger and stronger.
What\'s your take?
I believe that those triple crown trail 3yo\'s are getting better because they are developing, not because they are racing. I\'m a big believer in spacing races for young, developing horses. Most of the horses who do well early in their 3yo year do not have much of career later, because of the pressure they are under. I would point out that Victory Gallop (2 starts before the Derby)was something of an exception in that regard, and even he only got to the gate 4 times as a 4 year old.
With only one route race and a 6-week break heading into the Derby I would make Lion Tamer a complete toss in the Derby regardless of how he does in his final prep.
Winning off such preparation would be without precedent and would be a training marvel and require a brilliant performance by a brilliant race horse.
I agree with TGJB that spacing races probably helps a horse long term but you have to have a solid foundation and be dead fit to win the Derby.
The bottom line is that you almost have to sacrifice some long term interest to win the Derby. It is not quite as bad as what you now have to do to win a major fall 2yo stakes race but it\'s pretty darn close.
Chris
Do you have an opinion on why Derby horses, who bypass the Preakness, fair poorly in the Belmont?
I had this conversation with Elliot Walden a couple of years ago.
Elliot: Giving horses 6 weeks or more into the Derby doesn\'t work. No one who has tried it has run well.
Me: If the problem was fitness, as opposed to lack of ability, those horses would run better the next time than they did in the Derby. How have they done?
Elliot: Good point.
Aptitude ran okay. The ones who pass the Preakness usually are those that ran poorly in the Derby, or came out of the race worse for wear, or visibly tired.
Chris,
I have a hard time believing Lion Tamer wants to run ten furlongs, and I certainly would not put a futures bet down on him. Just remember one race though; Left Bank ran the fastest nine furlongs in the history of Saratoga when the Tabor, Pletcher, and JR crew wound him up and put him on the engine.
I would love to see the horse wire them at Turfway, it would add a very interesting dimension to the Derby this year.
Mike... just curious... what are you basing your statement on that Lion Tamer doesn\'t want 10 furlongs?
His daddy, Will\'s Way, was a G1 winner at 10f and knocked heads with Skip Away, Louis Quatorze and Formal Gold. Plus, the entire male side of his pedigree screams distance (Easy Goer on down).
While there is a lot of speed on his dam side (Tippecanoe Creek), the damsire, Olympio, had the dangerous combo of speed over a distance. He was a multiple G1/G2 winner at 9f and 9.5f, and at 10f finished second twice in G1 company.
I think LT is scary, stalking speed with the ability in his pedigree to go a distance.
Time will tell.
EZ,
just a hunch really. the horse is not built like Will\'s Way or Easy Goer. he looks more like a filly, and has more of a sprinters stride. I did mention in my post, however, that Pletcher and JR have accomplished amazing things with speed type horses. I am a big fan of the connections, and will be rooting for the horse if he goes next week in Kentucky. If he wins there, I will also be rooting for him in the Derby, but at this stage, I think others have a better chance of winning the race.