This Tizway in the Whitney looks like a really, really live longshot. I could see myself getting into alot of trouble with this guy on Sat.
1) Awesome pattern
2) has run as fast/faster than everyone in the race on 2009 figures
3) gets a weight break which makes him the weight adjusted fastest in 2009 by a ton
4) should save ground all the way around given his running style
5) his jockey is riding out of his mind in the big races so far this meet
6) is by Tiznow who has seemingly patented the late developing type older horses
If Commentator still has one of those 5 negatives left in him then everyone else is running for second but he hasn\'t run one of those big numbers in almost a year so I think it\'s worth trying to take a shot against him and this guy makes the most sense to me given that he\'s the longest shot on the board in the early ML.
someone talk some sense into me before I do something dumb on Sat....Please!!!!
>someone talk some sense into me before I do something dumb on Sat.
Like what, change your mind and bet Commentator at 4/5? That would be pretty dumb.
Maybe I\'m just as crazy as you, but I\'ll be taking a swing against Commentator, too, if for no other reason than he\'s an 8 year old horse that offers no value at the expected odds on.
The only knock I have on Tizway (and it\'s a VERY minor one) is that he developed *so* much from his 3 year old campaign that I have to wonder if he can improve some more here.
If not, you have to ask yourself a) even with the 7 lbs off from his last start, can Tizway run right back to his last race number (which was his new lifetime top) in only 4 weeks, and b) will that be good enough to win?
But at 12-1? Sheeit, fire away -- you get the \"Windy City Bomber\" stamp of approval on this one.
(And throw Macho Again into the mix for extra seasoning -- love how this horse is being managed. He has every right to run a new lifetime top on Saturday.)
Rick B,
this is awesome, thanks so much for the thoughts.
Macho will be massively overbet as the west point folks love to send it in so I don\'t think he will offer much value but for sure he loves the spa and is a part of the mix in this one.
I will be swinging away.
Thanks again man.