Condolences to the connections of Whitney hopeful Finallymadeit.
Tizway will be challenging Commentator on the front end, hopefully setting up some quick fractions. Dry Martini will sit last, once again hoping for everything to break his way, like it did in the Suburban. His 58 and change work indicates he is feeling as good as ever and can handle the surface. But he won\'t be 10-1 and probably not a great bet. But if you think he fits and the pace will be fast, you must use him.
Pace and track condition will be important here. Tizway looks a bit like Commentator before he won this race back in \'05: a two-turn challenged colt coming off a nice one-turn win at Bel. Tiz\'s 2nd dam is the dam of Whitney winner Will\'s Way. Smooth Air figures to run 1w/1w, which makes him dangerous, and he won\'t be at the mercy of the pace. I will judge the chances of the closers when I see how the track is playing. I\'m leaning against the two probable favorites, Macho and Comm.
Arl will be the track of choice however, as Sar has given us a claimer, two maiden claimers, and three state bred races in the first seven, and a turf sprint claimer to finish off the pk4 and pk6. Lovely.
Good Luck Billy.
Michael D. Wrote:
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> Arl will be the track of choice however, as Sar
> has given us a claimer, two maiden claimers, and
> three state bred races in the first seven, and a
> turf sprint claimer to finish off the pk4 and pk6.
> Lovely.
>
> Good Luck Billy.
Michael:
Four maiden races on an 11 race NYRA card, even a Saturday Saratoga card, does not surprise me anymore.
What does surprise me is that the \"braintrust\" would run these races consecutively (races 2-5), thus creating an all maiden Pick 4 sequence.
Can not see any logical reason why these 4 maiden races wouldn\'t be broken up and spread throughout the card.
That being said, the all stakes P3 (Hettinger/Test/Whitney) appears very bettable.
Macho Again made a pretty sustained sharp move in the Fostor to be up in time.
Inconsistently classy as a 3YO last year he won the Dandy and was troubled in the Travers.
May be holding his form better now, on a track he can handle, against horses he can handle.
Depends on which Commentator shows up at his advancing age.
Silver,
Macho is slower than almost the entire field and is giving up some weight and he goes wide coming home which makes his slower figs that much tougher to play.
Macho has been very fortunate to win the races he has won with pretty slow figs but in this race, almost the entire field is faster than him. He will be the 2nd or 3rd betting choice and I think he\'s a throw out. Matter of fact, in a race that very evenly matched, I think he\'s one of the only ones that you can safely throw out.
Heaven knows I have been wrong before but I will be taking a strong betting stand against the Macho man tomorrow.
I guess I will ensure that Macho Again wins this race by saying that I completely agree with Covelj that he is a throwout for the same reasons he gave.
Tricky race to bet as we all know that if Commentator runs his \"A\" race, he wins by 5 lengths or more. I also am not sure if he goes off as short a price as many think, as I don\'t know a single handicapper that actually likes him at this point. If he goes off at 2-1, the race is unbettable for me, as he is one fast horse and I have to believe Zito will have him ready to run. I guess the good news for those trying to beat him is that he hasn\'t run his \"A\" race in a year. If he doesn\'t run, the conventional TG play would be to bet Tizway as Covelj laid out. He gets 2 points of weight, has speed, figures to get a rail trip, and comes in weight adjusted faster than everybody but Commentator. The problem for me is the race shape. It seems to me that the way to beat Commentator is not to outrun him early, but rather to pass him after he battles the other speed horse. For Tizway to win, he probably has to wire this field and I don\'t think he can put Commentator away on the front end, then hold off the closers. I think Commentator has to \"x\", big time, for Tizway to win. I guess I can take 12-1 on that happening, but I don\'t think I will key Tizway. I think the way to play the race for me is to play the Test-Whitney double and try to beat Cat Moves in the first half and then Commentator in the second half. I think I will play a 2 by 3 double. In the first leg I think Heart Ashley has a big shot. The back figure she has is very fast and she gets enough time in this race to run back to it. The race shape for her is 100% better than her last race. She ran a blistering half last time out with Light Green who is an absolute monster filly. THis time she gets a relatively easy lead unless Cat Moves sends hard and the only question will be the distance. I have to disagree with whoever wrote the ROTW in that I can\'t use First Passage. I am actually surprised that either Allan or Jerry would think it is a good idea to use this horse off a 6 point new top run at Calder, where Wolfson is a big time \"move up\" trainer. Hard to believe that horse will run near that this time. I think my secondary horse here, again disagreeing with the ROTW, will be Flashing. Fell apart against Rachel last time but I expect a forward move/new top for this horse and a nice trip, perhaps sitting 2nd. I also think she will be better than the 7-2 ML, perhaps 5-1ish.
In the second half of the double, I will use Tizway, Dry Martini and Smooth Air. Dry Martini is in good form, the outside post shouldn\'t matter as there is plenty of speed to stretch out the field, and Tagg\'s horses are running at Saratoga so far. 8-1 is more than fair. Smooth should get a good trip, from the rail, perhaps sitting 3rd and can get the 1 1/8. I won\'t hold the loss at Monmouth, against a \"horse for the course\" on a speed favoring track, against him. He had a good run in the Met Mile in the previous race and can run his race from the rail post and be dangerous.
Some comments on Arlington coming later tonight on what looks like a good card.
Jimbo,
Thanks alot for the thoughts.
I am trying to play the pick 4 at the Spa and I have been struggling for 2 days on what to do with the Test.
You\'re thoughts helped to clarify things for me, thanks very much and good luck.
I generally agree Jim. I\'ll join Richie and play the stakes pk3. I like chalk in the 1st two legs (1,3,5,8 / 2,5), so I\'ll single Smooth Air in the Whitney. Lezcano from the 1 hole and 118 lbs could be worth a few lengths vs the closers. I can picture Tiz wiring these, but I\'m gonna settle on the horse proven vs stakes company. I also expect AB to run well, and Bullsbay could hit the tri at a price under 116 lbs from post 3. I really don\'t know how well DM is going to run.
I think Maram is up against it coming back from the long layoff against these.
There\'s no guarentee that she pairs her 2 year old top first off the layoff and even if she does, that\'s not likely to be good enough against some of the improving types in here.
I will use the 4 instead of the 8 in that race and leave Maram off my tickets.
Good luck
Guys maybe you are right regarding Macho. The trip and the figs usually do not lie. Certainly when the price is not there.
I have my reasons for disagreeing however and will reserve them until after the race should he win. I would hate to talking someone into a runner that is possibly comprised on both price and talent.
This race is no gimme so getting a good price for buy is what people need to be doing. But sometimes the price looks a lot better after the race. See Lawyer Ron from a few years ago.
oh man, do I remember that Lawyer Ron race, that absoutely kicked my but that day.
Good luck!
Thank you for your good luck wishes Michael. We don\'t know how DM will run either. But we do know he has never been in better form, as Jimbo recognized. Usually he drops 80-100 pounds after a big race, but after the Suburban he didn\'t drop an ounce. He is fit, loves the track, but relies on a fast pace and good racing luck. And he has 1/8 mile less to work with. But the 8-1 M/L surprised me, and I think he is worth using.
Dbrillym,
Thanks for the information. Also forgot to mention that Dry Martini gets in relatively light versus most of the contenders (at 117). (except Tizway of course, who gets in very light)
Jim
Asiatic Boy scratched-no super.