Longest shot on the morning line comes in with the fastest figure adjusted for weight, rested, a positive trainer change and very good trainer intent. Now, the big figs were earned on a different surface but the horse is actually bred better for the turf than the dirt anyway. Smallish field so as a closer he shouldn\'t loose as much ground as he would in a bigger field and there are a bunch of deep closer types so he might now have to pass as many and go as wide as he normally would in a field full of stalkers.
Richard\'s Kid is the key in the race at anywhere near the 20-1 morning line.
thoughts?
I agree that Richard\'s Kid is interesting, especially at 20-1. My concern is Baffert--I can\'t recall a single decent turf horse that\'s he\'s had.
I know they\'ve separated, but maybe Mr. Zetcher should think about giving this one to McAnally.
But then again, this horse is \"stranger danger\" and the other are a bunch of horses whom we\'ve seen before and, at the price, why not take a shot with this guy.
Good Luck!
well, I have you on a technicality there.....Pioneer of the Nile was a great turf horse that he had....too bad he never ran him on the turf. POTN would have been awesome had he been kept on the turf.
I commented during Derby week that the horse screamed turf to me in his appearance (\"turf ass\" Jimbo, I know you like that one) and his action.
What happens when you run turf horses on the dirt? they get hurt.
Now, most of the horses from the derby trail get hurt so we certainly can\'t say this is the only reason but he could have been a horse that excelled for many years on the turf, instead, he\'s gone. Can\'t blame Baffert for this as he was obviously under pressure from Zayat to run on the poly/dirt. After all, Zayat would have kept the horse with Mott if he wanted to run on the turf given that Mott started him on the turf (for good reason).
anyway, sorry for the diatribe, thanks for the thoughts, great luck this weekend,
Interesting long shot Covelj. A long cry from five deep in doubles with the top five favorites... :)
It bothers me a little that they never tried a Kingmambo on the turf before. This is a pretty salty group to be trying turf for the first time against. I think the bet is against #1. It strikes me these first two days that speed is not holding well on the Delmar turf course. I also don\'t buy the comments from Mitchell about rating Thorn Song. The pace will be legit. I can\'t come up with a big price horse myself, I think Whatthsscript finally gets the right setup and runs back to his top and wins. With the speed signed up, the field should be stretched out and he won\'t as much ground as he has recently. His recent form looks bad in his PP\'s but if you look at the TG\'s he is actually pointing back to his top and hasn\'t been far off. He likes Delmar and should run big. I think I get 3-1, which isn\'t great, but as a pick-4 single, I will take it.
In a chalky weekend for me, i am also betting on and singling Livin Lovin in the CCA Oaks at Belmont. I am hoping they make the overhyped Funny Moon the favorite. Livin Lovin looks like the speed to me, except for maybe the slow rat Godolphin horse. If Livin Lovin can run 3\'s at 2, he can run faster as a 3 year old. I think we see her best tomorrow. Lots of trainer confidence as they entered her against older in the 1 million dollar Delaware Handicap. I think the value is in betting against Funny Moon, who I think needs a wet track for her best. I will use the 2-3-6-7 underneath, hoping for Don\'t Forget Gill to get 2nd at a long price, although I think the 15-1 ML is off. The Asmussen horse shows paired 3\'s on TG, but I don\'t buy either figure. She might get 2nd, but not going to beat the rail horse IMO.
A little \"cha]lk\" before opening weekend at Saratoga. Hoping to fill in the races in the pick=4 around each horse with some prices. The 3 in the 7th at Belmont might like turf and has decent dirt figs. The 1 and 9 are solid alternatives to the favorite in the 8th at Belmont. Still working on the 10th.
Good luck
Jimbo:
Glad to hear you\'ll be upstate opening weekend. Hoping for some good racing and
good weather, neither of which we have had much of in NY the past couple of months.
I think my only play this afternoon will be the late P4 at Belmont. The CCA
Oaks has always been a fun race to play, especially when run at 1-1/2 miles
for most of the 70s and 80s. Some of the great fillies of recent years (Shuvee,
Chris Evert, Ruffian, Davona Dale, Open Mind, Mom\'s Command and Sky Beauty)
have won this race.
In 1991, the race was won by Lite Light, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and
owned by M.C. Hammer. In an unforgettable NYRA moment, one of the Phippses
presented the winners trophy to Hammer and his entourage. I seem to recall that
Hammer was dressed for the occasion in a tuxedo-- with no shirt.
I do not think there are any Hall of Fame candidates in this years running but
it looks like an open betting race, and I will go 4 deep with Livin Lovin
(another Graded SW from Birdstone\'s first crop) Wynning Ride (first time dirt
but Baffert has a 29% strike rate in graded stakes),Don\'t Forget Gil and
Hightap, the latter two seeming to have the most bottom for this 10 furlong
race.
7th Race: Four of these have wins on turf. The one I like most is Linda Rice\'s
Beso Del Sur, a 3YO filly competing against males. She is slower than the 3
other turf winners in the field, but Linda Rice\'s magic touch in turf sprints
is undeniable. I will take a shot against ML favorite Sydney Road, a 200K Padua
purchase dropping first time for a tag. Although trainer Albertrani ismuy
caliente in 2 relevant categories (class droppers and last 90 days), this
colt last raced on June 11 and was not seen again until he worked on July 5.
Toss.
In the tenth race I will go contrarian and single the ML favorite, Fair Catch.
FC is not as fast as second fave Winloc\'s Big D, but WBD has had 13 turf tries
without success. FC retains RamDo and has had troubled trips in his last 2.
\"Still working\" on the 8th as J66 would say.
1,7,11/ TBD/ 1,2,3,7/ 2 = TBD
I generally prefer the Broad Brush/Private Account cross on dirt, but Tough Broad did top on turf (8), and she had a number of turf wins. With LDK on top, and the decent grass work earlier in the week, there\'s a shot RK turfs. Has the big fig going the distance on dirt.
Key Richard\'s Kid at a price.
Good luck Jim.
well, that didn\'t work out to well.
Jimbo, I think I need to go back to going 5 deep in 6 horse fields for the pk 4 :)
really look forward to seeing everyone at the spa this weekend.