Alan:
As usual an extensive and astute analysis.
A point with regard to Straight Story. You make a lot of the fact that he bore
out in his last 2 starts. In his last start, however, the TG trackman, the DRF
trackman and my visual recollection all concur that this colt was carried wide
by a rival to his inside. In his first start of the season, he was allowed to
drift in the lane after humbling some overmatched foes. That being said, I
think this Alsy Goldberg runner tires from 2 sharp efforts off the layoff.
The ROTW analysis favors Winstar/Mott Hold Me Back. To me, this one offers
little value as a potential second favorite trying turf for the first time
in a decent field. With regards to owner/trainer intent, why is top turf trainer
Mott putting this son of Giants Causeway on the lawn for the first time midway
through his 3YO campaign? And if the answer to this question is that Winstar
identified this runner early on as a Derby horse, why did they leave him with
Billy Mott, a world class Hall of Fame trainer who has had absolutely no
success with Spring 3YOs?
I\'ll take a shot with two runners bred to like the 10f distance-- El Crespo and
Lime Rickey. With EC I\'m hoping that Leparoux can keep this one a little
further off the pace than he has been in recent races. Rusty Arnold\'s \"Last 90
Day\" Fig Based Stat is quite impressive, albeit based on a small sample (and
thank you for explaining the discrepancy in sample size in the trainer stats).
Lime Rickey is a consistent closer who should like the pace set up and the
distance of the race; supporters of this Frank Alexander trainee have to hope
that Cornelio can guide him to the rail in early stages of the race.
I\'ll use EC and LR in the all stakes P3, hoping for odds on each between 6/1 -
10/1.
Looking forward to some \"Bombowitz\" specials opening weekend at the Spa.
I don\'t know what to make of Hold Me Back, especially with WinStar looking at his future on dirt. Here\'s what Elliot Walden said about him:
\"We\'re just trying to get him back on track,\" said Elliott Walden, racing manager for WinStar. \"Bill\'s worked him a couple times on the grass in New York and really liked how the colt got over it. Our goal actually is to make him a Grade 1 winner on the dirt, and we\'re thinking about maybe going in the Travers after this. But we wanted to try the grass first, and the timing of this race was just right. Obviously, he\'s shown ability on the synthetic, so hopefully that will transfer over to the turf.\"
I like betting on good horses surrounded by uncertainty. I will stick with TGAB\'s analysis on Hold Me Back, thinking that the question marks will make his odds playable. I agree with Richiebee\'s thoughts on ElCrespo, as the distance suits him perfectly. Leparoux is giving up a pretty sure placing on Winter View to ride, so he must think he is very competetive. I don\'t see Frank Alexander winning many of these big races and will leave him out. Boxing Hold Me Back with El Crespo in the exacta and using the Pletcher horses in the second and third spots of the tri.
Is the Colonial card on TV today? Haven\'t seen anything on TVG or HRTV?
I am afraid that regardless of whether the ROTW analysis is right on or not, Hold Me Back is going to end up with lower odds because Mike Watchmaker and Byron King are talking about all of the positives he has over on DRF.com. Now, all you need is the track announcer to recommend him, and then there goes your value.
TVG has the race. The turf is very soft.
number5858 Wrote:
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> Now, all you need is the track announcer to
> recommend him, and then there goes your value.
Well, Alan mentioned him on Inside Racing this morning, and then a guy on Race Day Las Vegas mentioned him.
Then, I went to the bank, and all of the tellers were talking about him...
...fahgedaboudit. Value all gone.
Go to plan B. Just protect with him.
Right Alan.
No complaints. Sometimes all of the sharp \'cappers land on the same horse.
An overbet horse might create a little value elsewhere, too.
At 6/5 also abandoning ship. Will try Rusty Arnold at 8-1.
That is a good price on that horse.
Wish I had somewhere to bet him.
Hate to put the extra \"weight\" on RichieBee\'s pick, but El Crespo looks good. Figures to love the distance, will get a real pace to run at this time. 6 or 7 to 1 is good value.
Hold Me Back was never going to be near 5-1, but when the \"all stakes pick -3\" has started off being an \"all Desormeaux pick 3\" in the first two legs, the value gets sucked even lower.
El Crespo on top of Hold Me Back, Affirmatif and Take the Points.
Good luck!
Red dog, Red dog, audible, audible 1 1 1 1 1 1 got it 1---Affirmatif win, Box w/#3 Take the Points, protect under Hold Me Back and 7 / 1, 3 / 1, 3 triple. $60 win, $5 box, $20 exta 7 / 1, $5 trp key 7 / 1, 3. $100 total.
Since we are now racing on three distinct surfaces, and that makes it difficult
to make such statements, I think Battle of Hastings is the second best 3YO in
training in North America. BOH still eligible for some $5M bonus which calls for
him to win the BC Turf.
And if you liked him today, you got a great price because the Mott runner was
seriously overbet.
EL Crespo was perfectly placed after a half mile and seemed to have nothing in the
drive.
Will be up early to boot home the alta kokker in the Brit Open...
Ricthie I think a lot of us will be having bacon and eggs at LRL (Living Room Links) and doing the same.
This guy is playing like the Priest in Caddyshack
Yes, it reminds me of Jack Nicholas at the Masters in 85. You know you are seeing something special.
Good story line by Rick Reilly after the British Open today. Said Tom Watsons deal with the devil ran out after 71 holes. If I had not watched this with my own eyes I would be convinced the deal with the devil was true. Who knows maybe it was.
This whole story had a \"Twilight Zone\" Kick the Can type theme to it. Maybe all of the rest of us felt a little younger once again.
Eagerly looking forward to the next six weeks of racing starting with the last week in July. May be the best stretch of the year in the entire sport.
No time to talk anymore. Gotta go outside and kick the can for a while........