Ok, I am counting the days until Saratoga opens. Is there any rough schedule as to when JB or AB will be holding the 11:45 seminars behind the Carolina BBQ? Got some good info last year.
Alan is doing opening and Travers weekends. I\'m doing Whitney, Alabama, and Labor day. My only Del Mar trip right now is for the contest, which takes place opening weekend at Saratoga.
Hope every one noted the announcement about the BC handicapping contest. That was the brainchild of yours truly, though not quite as originally envisioned-- I wanted a Survivor format leading up to the BC. But this is the best thing they can do to create interest in BETTING, not the sport-- televise a contest with a relatively small group of serious bettors all betting the same races, live, and explaining who they like and why, with the winner getting serious money. Showing someone winning betting horses is really, really important.
Guess you will be there for the Whitney.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/51672/new-handicapping-contest-for-breeders-cup
TGJB Wrote:
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> Alan is doing opening and Travers weekends. I\'m
> doing Whitney, Alabama, and Labor day.
Jerry, are you doing the Sword Dancer weekend?
We finally settled on 8/11 thru 8/18, and I\'d like to buy you and any other TG\'ers on hand a cocktail or three.
Right now Julian is doing that weekend. You picked the one where neither Alan or me is there. And I would have taken you up on it.
So would the rest of us.
Unreal.
We picked those dates because we were looking for a \"slower\" week at the Spa (if there is such a thing), not knowing exactly what kind of shape my buddy was going to be in.
Turns out that he\'s damn near healthy as a horse at the moment -- probably the best he\'s been in years, what with a fully functional liver...hell, it might be ME that needs a nap mid-card every day.
We are supposed to be going into the city on Friday 8/14 (I think) for a George Thorogood concert at the Nokia. Maybe we can figure something out.
TGJB Wrote:
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>
> Hope every one noted the announcement about the BC
> handicapping contest. That was the brainchild of
> yours truly, though not quite as originally
> envisioned-- I wanted a Survivor format leading up
> to the BC. But this is the best thing they can do
> to create interest in BETTING, not the sport--
> televise a contest with a relatively small group
> of serious bettors all betting the same races,
> live, and explaining who they like and why, with
> the winner getting serious money. Showing someone
> winning betting horses is really, really
> important.
JB:
I think the tie in of BC quality racing and a high stakes handicapping
contest is a natural, but I still think the \"Horseplayers are Heroes\"
angle will prove rather fruitless.
I remember Steve Crist saying that the ESPN telecast of a major handicapping
contest was (paraphrasing) \"The worst hour on TV ever\". And if a serious
handicapper has an edge of some sort, is this something (s)he is going to
divulge? (On the other hand, if a winning contestant is just plain lucky, would
they be humble enough to admit to their good fortune?)
Also wondering how to reconcile creating an increased interest in betting
horses with a contest with an exorbitant (to me, at least) buy-in
(first come, first admitted, no less) which does nothing to assure that the
most talented handicappers are participating.
The only way to determine the best handicapper is to make an evaluation over
the long run. Give a group of contestants a stake at the beginning of the year,
inform them they have a minimum number of plays to be made, let the contestants
play any race at any track, making any sort of wager they want, from a $2 show
bet to a complex Pick 6, and see whose got what at the end of the year. This is
a lot more real than the weekend formats, no?
Someone should come up with the idea of a handicapping contest which emphasizes
multi race wagers such as P3s or P4s.
I will take this chance to once again mention that you are missing a great
marketing opportunity to cross promote with your cross town rival a couple of
times a year. I know it is the \"Lens\" who are for some reason opposed to this,
but the lost profit potential is rather unsettling.
Come to think of it, how about an extended Brown v Beyer v the Bolsheviks round
robin?
JB, bring some more Thoro-Graph hats. Love mine, good advertising.
Richie--
1-- I agree with Steve about the telecast, which had to deal with a) a very large number of players, b) after the fact, c) a format (wp) that bunched them up, d) in a small amount of time. What I set out to do was to come up with a format that would develop story lines centering around a smaller number of players that would become even smaller as some separated themselves from the pack, over a longer period of time, LIVE-- so viewers could have a rooting interest.
2-- What I suggested (and as far as I know they\'re going to do it) is that everyone has to get bets in by 5 minutes to post, which should not be a problem with the big BC pools, where odds don\'t change much late. After bets are in contestants can be asked who they liked, why, and how they played them-- crucial to developing horseplayers is understanding the logic. Think ROTW, from a bunch of different angles.
3-- Yes, it would be better if the contest took place over a long period of time-- hence my \"Survivor\" idea. But this is a start.
4-- The cash format and big buy-in is to keep the numbers down, and the overall level of handicappers up. Is there perfect correlation between bankroll and skill? Of course not. But there is some. I think in the long run you might see satellite contests that give smaller players a chance to win their way in this one, too-- just like the NTRA contest.
5-- The big buy-in doesn\'t keep people from watching the WS of poker. And as there, someone will walk away from this with a lot of money, live, and the public will see someone beat the races. I can\'t stress too much how important this is in a world where \"you can\'t beat the horses\".
6-- I have challenged Friedman to handicapping contests so many times I have lost count, and way back when the DRF website was starting up, they were willing to host one. What can I tell you. Although I have to say, given how Friedman\'s picks run in the races he handicaps publicly, I understand his reluctance. Again, he\'s a good handicapper, the data is the propblem.
Do me a favor, remind me of that before the first weekend, we\'ll have Bill bring some.
Kirchner mentioned your input when I met with him recently about one very important aspect of this new contest which was not in the press release, namely that there are going to be six \"play in\" contests where first prize is an entry into the BCBC, as they\'re calling it, which in and of itself is something worth shooting for, given the lofty entry fee. I couldn\'t agree with you more on the importance of highlighting players winning serious money, although I\'m hoping at least one or two of the players who ring the register earned an entry by winning a satellite, as my best guess is the average viewer might identify with that kind of player more than a player who ponied up the $10k entry fee.
One other interesting note is that a sizable number of Euros have apparently already committed, and will be making their contest debut in what can be a tricky and demanding format. While it wouldn\'t make sense to call anyone who enters a contest like this \"dead money\", it sure seems to me that they\'ve picked a very tough spot to try to break their maiden.
A little coverage of the current contests would have been a good start IMO. One going on now in Vegas. Good luck finding out anything about it.
I wonder how much intrest there would be in the NFL if you had to wait until Thursday to find out who won the previous weekends game?
I looked at the Breeders\' Cup Betting Challenge and I saw nothing about play-in opportunities.
Any insight there?
Not much to report other than they\'re working on it, and they expect to hold six. In addition to trying to convince them to keep the entry fees reasonable, my pitch was that they should be as geographically diverse as possible, and should be made available to as many as possible, including those who live in the 13 states which don\'t allow ADWs. Something along the lines of the July 11 Mth-Cby contest seems to fit both bills.
No argument that the reporting of results needs to be improved on the NHC contests. All I can say is that I will continue to work on it.
However, the contest going on now is not related in any way to the NTRA or the NHC, but is rather one held by Coast Casinos, which also holds the World Series. Even if you\'re on site it\'s hard to get information, as at 5 p.m. they still hadn\'t updated the leaderboard from noon, although all of the scores are usually posted outside the ballroom about now.