After miserable performances on Belmont day and the week before, I am gunshy about posting any race comments on here. As a matter of fact, my trainer said the last performance was so bad, he wanted an MRI on me and recommended I be \"freshened up\" and pointed for my 43 year old season......
But, there are a couple races this weekend that look interesting, so two weeks is all the break I can take.
In the NY Stakes at Belmont, I am assuming the turf is soft/yielding and as such I Lost My Choo is likely not to run (or if he does run, he won\'t be as good). Criticism spots weight to the field and isn\'t that fast. He is a clear bet against. The obvious play is Dynaforce, as he has several figures that win here, got a race under his belt last time and should be fitter today. Also, as his form clearly shows, he likes the soft turf. The problem I have with the horse is that all this is fairly obvious and I think the horse goes off favored. I am going to key somebody else. In the Sheepshead Bay race, I thought that Criticism was vulnerable because there was other speed in the race and I didn\'t think he would \"trip out\" as easily as he did. Kiaran entered both Colina Verde and Backseat Rhythm in that race and Colina Verde was stretching out after showing speed in shorter races. Well, Colina missed the break and was far back early off the slow pace. The horse ran well though, closing wide, running the same figure that Criticism did. Kiaran re-enters the same two horses and unless he breaks bad again, I would expect Colina Verde on or near the lead, possibly with a 1w/1w trip. He won a Grade 1 on heavy turf in Brazil and at 10-1 ML, he is my key. I will also likely bet a four horse triple box, leaving out Criticism, using Colina Verde, Dynaforce, Backseat Rhythm and Dress Rehearsal.
The Colonial Turf Cup is interesting in that several of the favored horses look like bet againsts to me. Not sure why Take the Points should be one of the favorites here. Breeding doesn\'t scream turf to me. Horse ran OK early this year on dirt and synthetics. 1st time turf in a grade 2? No thanks. Battle of Hastings is Ok, as his 6\'s are competitive. But he isn\'t the fastest horse, may not want the longer distance and will be pretty short. My key for the race is Final Count. The horse got down to a 5 last time out, has tactical speed, and ran the good number on a turf course with give in it. I think the 12-1 ML is unlikely to hold up, but at even 6-1, I like him. The interesting longshot to use with him is Al Khali. Ran 5\'s and 6\'s in his last couple on dirt. Medaglia D\'Oro\'s are as fast on turf as they are on dirt. Had a bullet workout on the turf, now gets Kent Desormeaux traveling into Colonial to ride a 20-1 longshot. I think the horse is live and gets the rail and has enough early speed to get a nice trip. Very easy to use, especially with my top horse.
Good luck
Jim
Speaking of miserable performances - not sure I will ever use Take The Points again.
Where are you going to bet the race Jim? Cnl is not on the Twinspires or Xpressbet schedule.
And don\'t forget the Queen\'s Plate on Sunday. Looks like a good betting race.
Colonial is on YouBet.
Jimbo,
As long as the trainer isn\'t talking about gelding you, I think you will be fine :)
On a more serious note, one thing I wanted to pass along is that the connections of Dress Rehearsal decided not to make the trip over from Europe to attend the race with the turf being so soft. They were planning on coming but decided not to yesterday.
I know this can be misleading sometimes (remember that the Dubai horses were suppossed to be better plays because Sheik Mo made the trip over to the Derby, that didn\'t work too well for me) but I figured I would pass along as it seems they are less enthusiastic about how she will run given the ground. Either that or they just decided having dinner with me wasn\'t all that enticing, come to think of it, that might be the bigger reason!
No love for Lime Rickey in the Col Turf Cup? or did we both loose enough money betting on the Lemon Drop Kids on Belmont weekend that we are steering clear of them for awhile?
Lime Rickey looks interesting to me as the 3rd choice on the ML in the Col Turf Cup and Bronze Cannon at Ascot looks interesting as well but I am going to sit out on betting on the sons of LDK for awhile for fear my bias is getting in the way of my analysis.
good luck to everyone this weekend, big carryover tonight at Hollywood Park. Spent a bunch of time on the card last night. I hope Drysdale has Royal Fortune ready to fire off the layoff in the 1st leg or I may be out pretty early.
I like Rescue Squad in the Cnl race. Half to \'1.75\' turfer Criminologist. Pedigree says this guy should get better and better. Looking for a forward move off the paired 7\'s. Prado should save ground.
Final Count does look interesting. Full to Communique. Distance and ground should suit.
TTP usable with the # power.
BOH borderline as the favorite.
And looking for a \'6\' out of Rickey, but Julian is gonna have to work out the trip from post 10.
I\'ll be keying RS in this one.
Covelj,
Thanks for the information, but it seems a bit strange in that Dress Rehearsal beat Criticism on a turf course that had some give in it.
As for Lime Rickey, I certainly consider him a contender and will use him, but not as a key. Too short of a price in a contentious field for me to key him.
Looks like the Drysdale horse was a good single for you. Hope you hit it.
Jim
Jimbo--
If you \"X\" again today, you\'ll go over at a big price upstate.
Al Roker was just on NBC\'s US Open coverage, said the heaviest of rains will
fall between 6PM and 6AM. Expect a soft, uneven, wet turf. The main track is
currently listed as good/sealed, with a good chance that conditions will
degrade.
NY Stakes--
I Lost My Choo and Dress Rehearsal scratched, no super.
I\'ll toss Criticism under the weight.
As you point out, Dynaforce will be a short price (co-favored?) as arguably the
fastest TG mare in the field. Her second off the layoff race last year was the
best performance of her lightly raced career. She can be wound for a top
performance today and have plenty of time to recover for the Spa or Arlington.
Bella Allure goes for a red hot Cris Clement and is not as fast as the
contenders in this race. She won a Group III in France at Longchamp over a soft
turf at 9 furlongs, and then contested the G1 French Oaks at Chantilly, where
she was outrun by 2 world class fillies, Zarakava and Goldikova. I\'ll look for
6/1 and a ground saving trip from RamDo.
Backseat Rhythm, also in the 5/1 area, like Dynaforce, she is a Grade 1 winner
over this course on soft ground.
Dyna, Bella and Backseat in the multiple race endeavors, maybe a small win play
on Bella.
As of 3:15 PM, race is now off turf (NYRA website)...
...heading to Hollywood