TGJB,
I realize I am not a figure maker, so I don\'t really have a lot of evidence to support this next statement, but it seems to this layperson that you have the Belmont Stakes awfully fast.
Mine that Bird\'s flattening out, relatively weak 3rd place finish, gets the same figure as his 6 3/4 length and widening win in the Derby. The 2nd largest derby victory in the last 20 or 30 years?
Charitable Man\'s disappointing performance, with no punch at all in the stretch, pairs up his impressive Peter Pan win, where he stalked a fast pace, went by effortlessly and kicked away from the closers when challenged.
Luv Guv got beat by 10, got a pretty good trip, and ran a new top.
I don\'t know. Seems fast though.
How did the track speed for the Belmont compare to the rest of the day in your figures, if you don\'t mind sharing.
Jim
I\'m not exactly sure where you\'re getting at.
Yea Mine That Bird was flat in the stretch, but he was the leader with 2 furlongs to go and a 1 1/4 mile clocked in 2:01.66 a full second faster than his winning Derby time, and this includes a 5w around the 2nd turn (vs his 1w1w Derby run). If he\'s got a wide open rail, he may run sub 2 minute 1 1/4 mile!
There were monster efforts up there!
Out of the last 15 Belmont Stakes, only 2 have been faster (Point Given and Birdstone).
Not sure where the heck you see the problem here with giving horses negatives out of this race.
Sekrah,
Glad you see the race that way. I don\'t. I would not look at the raw time of the race, or the 1 1/4 mile fraction, as a standalone in analyzing the performances. Compare the other races on the card on Belmont day with the races on Derby day. The Belmont race track was very very fast and produced fast times all day long. The track was not fast on Derby day. The horses staggered home in the Belmont, the last 1/4 mile. The \"pace figure\" folks, of which I not necessarily one, have not graded out the pace of the Belmont above par. So, the staggering home last quarter mile was not really justified that way. Beyer has given the race 100, but I heard he had to cut the race loose to do it, and that it actually came out quite a bit lower initially.
\"Beyer has given the race 100, but I heard he had to cut the race loose to do it, and that it actually came out quite a bit lower initially\"
Jim,
Actually mid 90\'s initially, since they had the track getting faster by the Belmont. Raw time on the slow side considering the lightning fast surface.
Beyer has it a TG 0\' (adjusted)and since it\'s a 1 1/2 mile fig, ya gotta be waiting for SB to return to a traditional distance to really gauge him. Depending on where he shows and what he\'s facing, I\'ll be betting with both hands against this one who got a good TG fig.
Sekrah,
What relevance is there in making the BELMONT figure with previous years raw final times? Even more so on this years \"concrete\" like surface which produced above average raw times all day.
Mike
As a measure of the quality of the performance, the Belmont Stakes TG figs seem a bit fast to me.
But as a measure of what it took out of them, it\'s probably not far off.
Does that make sense?
The entire card seems to fit rather tightly with what these horses have been running on TG in the past. Many pair-ups and a few logical forward moves.
Quite a few new top winners raced towards the inside which, after reviewing, was the place to be.
Mike
Quite a few new top winners raced towards the inside which, after reviewing, was the place to be.
Mike
Jimbo,
I also was surprised by the figs but at least for Charitable Man, there was the issue of carrying 10 more pds that than the Peter Pan and the 3w/3w trip by Garcia.
There were a number of big jump ups on the day that I would have never predicted. Munnings was the only one I look back on that made some sense to me given the pair up in his first race as a 3 year old setting the stage for his big move forward.
Alot of the horse I played last Sat ran their race but got beat by horses that jumped up that I would have never figured.
Acorn can up amazingly slow though. Would have never guessed ahead of time that a 4 would have won the race. I thought there were about 5 in there that would have run faster than a 4 going into it.
TG, thanks as always for the figures.
Signed,
Sleepless in Tokyo (I hate jet lag)
The track was much slower early (first 3), basically the same speed for the rest. Belmont was the only 2 turn race, I did it off the horses, but it came out very close to the one turns. If I used the relationship I used the day before for the Brooklyn, the Belmont would have come up a couple of points faster. And that\'s with the Brooklyn basically collapsing.
I looked at the Belmont for quite a while, there was about a one point range where it could be, I ended up at the fast end of that. Keep in mind that MTB and CM were wider than in the races you compare them to, and CM and LG were carrying more weight. Also, Beyer doesn\'t factor weight, so obviously he will have to adjust entire TC races to get them right or even close.
I have to say, I have said here often that Beyer\'s figures are very good, better than Ragozin\'s (leaving out the ground and weight issues), but they didn\'t do great on the TC races. A couple of the DRF\'s own writers commented on the Preakness figure looking too fast, and they were right. Andy also had the Oaks too slow.
Raggie Richie unconfirmed, RAGS 4(Equals TG 1/2) for Summer Bird.
Mike
As some on this board know, a colleague of mine and I have made our pace figures for years. We have compared our numbers to everything, and I mean EVERYTHING, else that is commercially available. Over time we have often found differences between these figures, and the differences are often big enough to matter. I discussed our method on this board last year before the Kentucky Derby, which you can read here if you would like:
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,42753,42753#msg-42753
Anyway, based upon my experience with Pace Figures our numbers are far superior to everything else out there. I can tell you first hand it is pure folly to compare different times on different days, let alone at different tracks, or even to compare intra-fractional times at the same track on the same day - but at different distances. There are different run up times and other idiosyncrasies that just make these types of comparisons near worthless.
So I\'m not sure what merit there is in comparing an intra fractional 1 1/4 time over a sloppy Churchill strip to a very fast Belmont strip a month later, or comparing this year\'s final Belmont time to others for anything other than historical merit. In my opinion if you want to use that type of method to form opinions about the relative performances of horses you may as well put your bankroll in the toaster now.
For what it is worth, we have this year\'s Belmont as being significantly above par early even with the very fast nature of the racing strip that day. The numbers would seem to imply that this gave the front runners very little chance of hanging around at the end. There were also several horses that fired significant middle moves into the hottest part of the race. Mine That Bird made a very, very strong middle move, and to a lessor extent so did Charitable Man. They all then crawled home late in below par time.
So my read on the race is that Summer Bird more or less was gifted the lead. I\'m not trying to take anything away from him. He ran well enough to win and beat me out of my money (I played a cold $300 Tri DU / CM / MB,SB and $100 super DU / CM / MB,SB / MB,SB,FP). But if you want to look at the numbers from a pace standpoint, SB didn\'t have to do any real running in the race. He relaxed, saved ground and then loped on by a bunch of tired horses that had either fried themselves early on or moved too soon.
So in my opinion Dunkirk ran the strongest race in the Belmont. He was involved in both the early, middle and late pace while managing to hold on for second. With a more timely move Mine That Bird probably also could have won the race. His middle move was very, very strong. He\'s a legitimate horse that will have a chance in any race where he gets a pace to run at, but will probably settle for more in the money finishes than wins because of his one-run running style. Charitable Man ran reasonably well in the Belmont, but at 1 1/2 his overall race was not as strong as either Dunkirk\'s or Mine That Bird\'s. He will probably turn out to be best at distances of up to 1 1/8.
Also, in retrospect, for what it\'s worth, MTB ran an incredible late pace figure in the Kentucky Derby after not being involved at all early, which left us feeling that PON ran the strongest overall race. Too bad for me PON didn\'t fire at all in the Preakness. And speaking of the Preakness... whewwwww. The Filly ran the best overall race of any of the Triple Crown entrants. She should have been absolutely cooked by the early pace and the late runners should have been able to go by her. The fact that she ran both the early and middle runners off their feet and then kept on going without letting another horse pass her in the stretch or the gallop out to the far turn afterwards was the only special thing I saw during this entire Triple Crown Sequence. That being said, this is also an indictment of the entire 3 year old crop of males that we saw run this Triple Crown Sequence. Overall a below average crop. I will be looking for other newcomers and returning injured runners to make their mark come later in the year.
Good Analysis and spot on.
Dunkirk ran big and Summer Bird who is a very good looking horse fell into it in the stretch. As I said before have these two switch spots throughout the race and then see who wins.
Hi Mike,
You have the pace \"significantly above par early\", then say the horse that was about 4 lengths off that early pace (SB) did no real running. Can\'t be both. Are you deducting points for being covered up? If so, put them back in for the trouble.
SB dropped about 4 back from Dunk, and when they cruised into the turn, ran about a length slower than that foe.
When a stalker type like Dunk is 4 lengths in front of a closer type like SB, there is no excuse. If there is an excuse, SB has it - Kent moved too soon (and I\'m not arguing that). And if that stalker type runs about a length and a half faster than the closer during a middle fraction? Again, no major excuse. You\'re talking as if Johnny V scooted 20 lengths clear of Summer Bird.
Mike, there are no real excuses here. Borel may have moved too soon, but the horse\'s inability to keep a sustained pace will leave you with that risk just about every time he tries 12f (and I doubt that will happen again).
SB was the best 12f horse in the race.
ps - and if anybody knows when Dunk\'s injury occurred and how it affected the race, we\'ll include that in the analysis.
Hi Mike,
I respect your opinions on this board and regard you as a very good handicapper. I think we just see pace differently, or at least we do in this race. Remember, the way I look at pace is different than most. Read my post last year. I don\'t believe all ticks are equal. 3-5 ticks off the pace can make a big difference, or they can make no difference at all. In this case, I think it made all the difference.
At the 1 mile pole, which is the pace call I look at for a 1 1/2 race, I have SB 6 lengths off the pace. Watch the replay here
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=udUIxsuWE3w
At that point the front runners were still chugging along and horses like Mine That Bird & Charitable Man were making their moves into the pace at a point where most horses would exert maximum effort in order make this type of move. SB meanwhile was still relaxed, covered by horses and falling back along the rail. He only began to really rally around the 1/4 pole. And at that point the late pace of the race was already falling apart because no one had anything left other than Dunkirk, and he wound up injuring himself to do it.
I also don\'t think you can treat Dunkirk like a stalker in this race. He was the front runner. I never expected this. I figured he was one the fastest horses coming into the race according to TG, with a great looking pattern, had trained favorably (he was training with Munnings and we know what he did). On paper he also figured to be fast enough to lay close early, 4 lengths or so off Charitable Man and Miners Revenge, relax and pounce before the deep closers got moving. No way I saw him on the lead. I was honestly cursing at the 1/2 mile pole. Guess that\'s why they don\'t race on paper.
I don\'t disagree though. SB was the best that day at that distance,and the race set him perfect. I take nothing away from him. But I would bet that if they ran this race again Johnny V would have Dunkirk about 1 second off the early runners. And if that were the case I bet he beats SB with the same trip.
I would still take Charitable Man over SB any day up to 1 1/8. And I agree with you about MTB. I said more or less the same thing before the Belmont.
Hope I get em at Saratoga.
MJ
I meant stalker in past races, and SB was a closer. I respect all your points Michael, but I\'m still going to view this as SB running 4.5 lengths off the pace at both the 1/4 and 1/2 marks, then conserving just an extra length and a half into the 1m pole (vs the leader). He then makes up 2.5 lengths into a :23.8 quarter, and uses the final 1/4 to inhale tired foes. If one wants to view that as doing no real running, that\'s ok. We just see this differently. And we haven\'t even talked about the trouble. A young colt in his 5th career race with 1st blinkers in tight getting checked a few times? How many lengths?
As for beating SB this summer - an entirely different conversation. SB won the Belmont because of the distance. I know four or five guys who liked SB in the Belmont, and we all make CM a stronger Haskell contender. I have to believe most are going to feel that way. And the Travers? MTB will take all the money. He probably is the best 10f horse out there if all goes well, but bettors will once again have to judge the trip risk vs the board. Man, toss in Rachel and QR, and this could be a really fun summer.
And, again, we don\'t and never will know what impact the injury had on the race. I really hope Dunk does come back. If it sounds like I\'m against him, I am not. When he paired up that \'0\', I knew we had a fast colt with a good size heart. Probably would have been my key if SB were not involved.
Anyway, I could talk pace with you all day Michael. You add a ton to these discussions. Cheers.