This race is as tough as the people who live in it\'s borough..
Any of six have numbers to win. Gotta single someone for the Brooklyn/Belmont Double with Charitable Man but having a heck of a time. Deslosvientos is the only one of the six I can eliminate. This race is a lot tougher than last year and he also got lucky last year when Night Light seems to have gotten hurt in that race.
Other than that I can\'t find a reason to throw out the others (1,1A,2,7,9). Anybody got any ideas?
love the 6. going to go 6/46 double and as a saver bet 9/46 Brooklyn/Belmont Double
I got it down to two:
#7 Alcomo, who almost seems too obvious, and
#1 Ea -- I have some respect for a horse that can ship to Charles Town, run the 7 or 8 laps it takes to actually run 1 1/8 miles at that tiny oval (AND run a negative number while doing so), then come back 4 weeks later and duplicate that effort.
I saw the CT race -- I pulled a hammy just watching those poor horses take all those turns. By today\'s standards, Ea is starting to look like an iron horse.
jumpnthefire Wrote:
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> love the 6. going to go 6/46 double and as a saver
> bet 9/46 Brooklyn/Belmont Double
I sort of forgot about the 6 but he should be added to the contenders list also although he\'s not the one I\'ll single as I have a small doubt about him going the distance.
Agree with Rick B. on Ea-we decided to send Dry Martini back to Prairie Meadows later this month rather than encounter Ea again as he was uncatchable for us at CT. We also raced against Rising Moon, who had a tough trip last out and should be sharper if sound. So will box Ea, Alcomo and Rising Moon in the ex and tri.
I played 7 Alcomo to win & put the DD in with 2 Dunkirk (I\'m not going to give up on him & get burned) & 6 Charitable Man (who I think will go off as the favorite in the Belmont) with a saver on 7/7(Mine that Bird). I don\'t see any value in the win pool of the Belmont Stakes & need to juice up the payoffs without getting too involved in exotics.
With $142,000 in the pool, the doubles are suggesting:
MTB 2-1
CM 3-1
Dunk 4-1
CC 7-1
SB 8-1
Rising Moon is wearing Aluminum shoes is that good or bad considering horses health & the track conditions ... I like him & the 2/7
The Double players are far more sophisticated than Triple Crown race days.. I expect MTB to come down and CM to go up.
#3 Eldaafer, #5 Delosvientos look like my keys here.
Ea, Alcomo, Rising Moon underneath.
I added sense of weather tomorrow. The last I read didn\'t mention rain.
Wet sealed and yielding???
Ugh Didn\'t use to the two in any of my exactas, but I\'ll take the nice win pay here..
Alive for the double with Summer Bird and Charitable Man.
anybody know the double will pays?
Wow, nice hit!
What put you on the horse as a key? No matter how I looked at it, he came up a little light...as in, he had his chances already, including several sloppy track tries. Was a TG 1/2 vs legit horses with negative numbers...a possible \"use\" for me, but a key?
Did you project improvement, or did you just think the other \"faster\" horses wouldn\'t fire today? Just curious.
Being the only 4 year old in the race as the one capable of making any move forward piqued my interest in him. Has a 1 at 1 1/2m puts him no more than 1 or 2 back of anyone else.. Getting a couple pounds certaintly helped my thought process. 1w1w seemed very probable as well. Longest price on the board really sealed the key. If he was 6-1, I definently wouldn\'t have been keying.
The 2 pounds weight certaintly helped down the stretch.
$2 double with Charitable Man - $206
$2 double with Summer Bird - $336
Both for x5.
Back in the day Chavez was my favorite jock in the slop,I used to joke that they should put a mud mark next to his name.I briefly thought about using him today,but was in a hurry and forgot about it.Came home to see that he had won and my horses were right underneath him.Hate when that happens.--Jett
Good job piecing that together. Funny thing is, that\'s kind of what I do for \"everyday\" races, but I somehow become mesmerized by the \"sheer number\" horses in stakes races, an obvious mistake.
We use the word \"key\" differently. Price never makes a horse a key for me...just a stronger use if the public is making a mistake, as you perceived with Eldaafer. To me, a key horse is one who I think will *absolutely* be there (no worse than 2nd), and must be on all my tickets -- price is not a factor. That\'s what I was questioning...a semantical difference and NBD. Thanks for explaining.