I like visiting the TG Archives.
Free, informative, brings back memories both painful and pleasurable.
Lots of support for CM on the board-- The Boss, Jimbo X, Covel (who has visions
of Lemon Drops on his mind).
Hard to knock the colt. KMac has proven to be a top notch big race trainer.
CM\'s daddy LDK was the Belmont victor in 1999. He\'s already won 2 graded stakes
over the track. He seems to have a tactical advantage in terms of race shape.
Jimbo accurately has reminded us that the \"tourist\" money will make MTB a
favorite in the 6/5 - 7/5 range. In the multi race, or horizontal, wagers,
however, I believe that CM will be on nearly as many tickets as MTB, and the
financial reward will come from knocking both of them out of P3/P4/P6.
Having said it is hard to knock CM, how can I take a stand against him on
Saturday?
CM will be making his 5th lifetime start in the Belmont Stakes on Saturday
From the Archives: Number of starts by Belmont Stakes winners prior to running
in the Belmont:
08/D\'Tara/6
07/Rags to Riches/6
06/Jazil/7
05/Afleet Alex/11
04/Birdstone/6
03/Empire Maker/6
02/Sarava/8
01/Point Given/11
00/Commendable/7
99/Lemon Drop Kid/10
98/Victory Gallop/9
97/Touch Gold/7
96/Editor\'s Note/16
95/Thunder Gulch/11
94/Tabasco Cat/11
93/Colonial Affair/7
92/AP Indy/3
Is it possible that CM, likely a clear second favorite in the win pool and
possibly a near co- fave in the multis, could be a short horse? Interestingly,
CM has had 2 half mile works since his Peter Pan victory. CM glass half full
supporters will say that this signals KM\'s belief that the colt is fit to get
the distance.
\"Bottom\" line-- not enough bottom for me at the odds.
Richie,
Great post.
I definitely am concerned about his foundation and never having won around two turns even though he\'s bred for it. I am hopeful that the race shapes being so favorable will prevent him expending too much energy but if he\'s too headstrong and/or Miner\'s Escape runs a big one and keeps him busy for a long time, that\'s how he gets beat.
Richie
Been watching past Belmont replays on TVG the past few nights, and this race is such a tactical one. If left alone to cantor on the lead I can see CM hanging in, if pressured, he will collapse with this foundation.
In principle I am agreeing with you as I see some hack horse pressing the pace needlessly. CM can win this sitting off the hacker, and making his move later on the final turn.
In your mind who\'s doing the pressing in here and why? You do have two Zito\'s and two Lukas horses in here. In many of the most recent past Belmonts, Zito with two entries is very dangerous,regardless of what you are reading on paper.......
NC Tony
NCT:
Zito with two entries certainly dangerous when they have common ownership
(LaPenta) and can be raced strategically/tactically as an entry.
My contention though is that even if coasting along on a fairly unpressured lead
with sensible fractions, CM could still experience oxygen debt in the late
stages given what I perceive as his lack of foundation. Will anyone have enough
stamina to take advantage of a tiring leader?
Dunkirk and Summer Bird also coming in with only 4 lifetime starts...
Mr Hot Stuff, Summer Bird, Luv Gov and Flying Private are all NW2LT...
Basically leaves runners who could be, as you say, dangerous regardless of what
I am reading on paper: Chocolate Candy and the Zito pair,none of whom really
excite me.
Great Assessment. I agree with you in that the field as comprised, is not all that exciting. My initial race thoughts are aligned with you, except I think the Lukas Runner Flying Private, and possibly the Zito Miners escape, is my key horse in Tri/Supers. Will try to formulate a play later tonight...
Watching this exciting match Race at Monmouth .....lol
Hope the rain gets out of there, but if our rain down here comes north, start building that ark. What are the weather geeks saying?
NC Tony
Not that there is any great value but given all that you need to factor in Mine That Bird. One late run at tiring horses and an off track which he loved at CD.
Richie...
Think this race ends up between a zero and 2 on TG figs.
I\'m keying in supers 4,7,8 w 2,4,7,8,W 2,4,6,7,8,9 W 1,2,4,6,7,8,9Thats $144 play plus boxing 4,7,8 in exacta\'s for $20....
thats my crack at the foundation-(less) race
NC Tony
Good work on the Super.
Also good work by a lot of the posters on this board who were monitoring the
flight of Summer Bird even going into the Derby. The combination of unseasoned
horse/unseasoned trainer made this colt very hard for me to consider, but his
TGs seemed to put him right in the mix.
Belmont attendance announced at nearly 53,000, not bad considering the economy
and the fact that NYRA really did not promote the event. It is amazing to me
that an additional 70,000 - 90,000 would have attended if a Triple Crown was to
be decided.
Undercard:
TRUE NORTH -- Fabulous Strike (by Smart Strike) reminds me of Groovy, a NY based
sprinter from the late 80s. FS may be the greatest horse ever stabled at scenic
Penn National. As a big fan of this gelding, I am hoping Todd Beattie can keep
FAbulous STrike together next year as a 7YO so he has a chance at a BC
championship on a natural dirt surface. What makes FS so tough is that very few
horses have the initial acceleration he does in the first 100 or so yards of
the race and it is very hard to deny him the front end.
JUST A GAME/ WOODFORD MANHATTAN -- Angel Penna and Chris Clement have been 2 of
NYs top turf trainers year in year out over the last few years; they are both
currently in the middle of amazing runs, so the results of these races were not
surprising.
I was a bit confused as to what the true condition of the turf course was. For
the fourth race, the Inner Turf was listed as \"soft\"; for the seventh race, it
was listed as yielding. The Widener Course was listed as \"yielding\" for both
races. Kent Desormeaux did two interviews on ESPN. After winning over the Inner
turf, he said the course was not as soft as he thought it would be; after
winning over the Widener in the next race, he mentioned that the course was
boggy (horse sinking into their knees, he said) in certain spots.
My impression from watching the races was that the huge divots which one
usually sees flying up on a soft turf course were not evident; the fractional
and final times of the turf races, in my opinion, reflected turf courses which
were probably \"good\", and runners who like a little give in the ground had no
advantage yesterday.
WOODY STEPHENS -- Munnings turned in what was in my opinion the most impressive
performance of the day. Will be interesting to see whether TAP tries to stretch
this one out or will point him to the big sprint purses. In what turned out to
be my best prediction of the day, This One\'s For Phil got another tortured trip
from post position 1, his third in a row.
BELMONT -- My approach was to downgrade the colts in the race which were
lightly raced and/or NW2LT, so of course the race is won by the lightly raced
NW2LT Summer Bird. Tremendous accomplishment for Birdstone, who I believe stands
for 10K to be represented by Mine That Bird and Summer Bird, who accounted for
2 legs of the Triple Crown.
Birdstone was sired by Grindstone. Grindstone was sired by Unbridled, winner of
the 1990 Derby for Mrs. Genter. A nice homage to 2 of the grandest grand dames
of the turf, the deceased Mrs Genter and Mary Lou Whitney.
Richie,
Clearly was going for one of the top three fav\'s to run out.Got basically a 2-1 return which kind of sucks...but what you going to do.
Great recap as always. Good day for NYRA.
NC Tony