Don\'t say I never gave you anything.
Very unselfish act Jerry...........
A Prince in the service of the Sport of Kings....
WOW! Thx.
It appears Mr. Brown will shoot a fish in a barrel...........
JB,
this is the one that you need to let Jimbo do, he\'s sitting on a big new top!
Who\'s stopping him? Besides, I think he already did it. I just took what he said and mixed it up a little.
You know, there have been a lot of posts like this recently. If you have something to add to the conversation, please do. If you can\'t do that, be funny. If you can\'t do either, don\'t fill my board up with inane putdowns, of me or anyone else.
Te He He-You\'re the funny guy TGJB! I like Jimbo\'s posts very much-and thank you for the ROTW!
Jerry,
Thanks a lot for this treat. If you check my records you\'ll see just how small a player I am, so this means a lot to someone like me.
As for spa, maybe you could put a flag whenever he comments that alerts us, something like \"A**HOLE.\"
Mike
Summer Bird - willing to excuse the Derby effort in the slop. Bred to go long, and his first 2 routes suggest 12f is within reach. Desormeaux up, gets blinkers. 1w/4w trip expected. needs to improve just a few lengths on the 4/11 effort to be in the mix here. SB the key at a price.
Choc Candy - line through the Derby. still looks slow though - if you pick this guy, you are betting on a decent jump 1st dry dirt. I am right on the fence here, but at 13-1 or so, and Gomez up from post 1, I am going to bet on a solid race.
Dunk - line through the Derby. decent cruising speed. paired up negative figures going 9f in 2nd and 3rd career starts suggest distance might be within reach. strong jock. perfect post.
Summer Bird the key, use CC and Dunk.
Michael D,
As usual, your analysis looks solid. Nothing more I can really add, as you are using the 2 price horses that look to run well. Interesting that you didn\'t mention Charitable Man. What do you plan on doing with him??
Spa,
Put a sock in it. You\'ve been really lame for some time now.
Agree on Summer Bird being a big player here.
I\'m not sold on Chocolate Candy. Only his post gives him a decent chance here at sneaking into the backend of the exotics.
Dunkirk is a definent use. And I\'m having trouble shaking the nagging thought for the potential for Miner\'s Escape to get out to an easy pace next to Charitable Man and hang on for a piece of the prize. And I cannot in noway leave Mine That Bird off a ticket after I\'ve done twice in a row now. He could pull a Smarty Jones/Afleet Alex and run 3 big Triple Crown races.
1st Tier - Charitable Man, Summer\'s Bird
2nd Tier - Dunkirk, Mine That Bird
3rd Tier - Chocolate Candy, Miner\'s Escape
Thanks for the Belmont ROTW and for your analysis. I haven\'t spent an enormous amount of time with this yet, but I want to question (not challenge) some of the assumptions you used for some of the runners.
Charitable Man: you throw out his poly try and focus only on his improvement over his 2yo top to reduce the percentage that he will bounce off a large 6 point improvement between his last 2 races. Why throw out the poly try? How do we know that this isn\'t a poly-loving horse (since he\'s only been on it once)? Maybe the poly race was the best he could do and he is coming off a 6 point jump. Wouldn\'t that suggest he MAY bounce?
Mine That Bird: you say he is reminiscent of Charismatic and War Emblem who were slow as 2yos, but got good in the spring. Suppose, however, that MTB is a poly-hating horse. Since that\'s all he ran on as a 2yo, maybe that\'s why his 2yo figures were slow. He won most of those races...so maybe he was a very special 2yo, overcoming a very basic adversity. Maybe this was a young horse crying out for dirt...and when he finally got on dirt, he began progressing dramatically. In fact, his 3yo progression might be viewed very differently than you suggest in comparing his 3yo spring numbers to his 2yo numbers. If this is the case, might not his 3yo numbers suggest he might even be sitting on another improvement?
Summer Bird: you forgive him for a monumental jump forward and I respect your analysis. However, I don\'t like the added blinkers for a horse that\'s expected to be a closer. If it were my horse and I believed in his strong Derby, I would not be messing around with it. There is a possibility this one will show more speed and NO closing kick. Maybe.
Your comments on Zito\'s 2 entries are fairly negative, but you suggest you might have to take them more seriously because of the \'Zito factor.\' If there is one thing I\'ve learned as a bettor it\'s the admonition NOT to bet today\'s race thinking about the last race I lost. I want to suggest that Zito\'s runners will not pull a fluke here...if you want to think about a factor, think about the \'Lucas factor,\' because his 2 entries look far more dangerous than Zito\'s do, this year.
All in all, I see MTB slipping at worst to a 2, if not improving off his pair up, and that may very well be enough to win this race. I intend to key him with the 1, 2, 5, 6 and 8. It\'s not a great scenario for a bettor and I hate to chase 2-1 shots in any race. I just don\'t see these plugs beating him.
Looking for another inexplicable bomb... faves are ALL shaky...
Jenny Craig, Jr.: plodder with no explosive kick... good sign that he didn\'t blow a gasket in Derby. Saves ground with GoGo... just can\'t picture him winning... exotics another story.
Dunkirk: Stepping aside from his figs/pattern... not a single horse he has finished ahead of in his MSW, ALW or FL DERBY has come back to win any type of stakes race. He has finished ahead of nothing and flopped in the Derby. Now he\'s going to beat the Derby winner, Peter Pan winner, Tesio winner and multiple G1 runners up. Something smells here...
Mr. Cool Stuff: even with a dirt move up, too slow of a carpet top
Big Bird: Couldn\'t he be sitting on the end of an 0 - 2 - X ?? Debuted 3/1/09 and now shoving in fifth race in 12 weeks?
Big Luv: slow, Lukas... eh
Charitable Man: sat off moronic speed horse who went 108 4/5 and is in Woody Stephens. Comes in off a 0 on four weeks rest. Can\'t see a forward move at 12f in fifth career start. Underlay as 2nd fave.
Big Big Bird: has cleaned me out of first two legs, but this is his Waterloo. BIG Derby top, 1.25 regression in Preakness, now must pay the bill. It\'s overdue.
FuPeg Jr.: Ran a very big Preakness with minor trouble. Even squeezed out a tiny top...good running style, wont be too far back. He could definitely pair or run a small new top...I think this is the race key.
Miner\'s Mark: interesting...Zito... big new top... but, we don\'t know how it will affect him and you get Lezcano instead of Leparoux on the Private.
Dancing Brave: top three back, poly yuck, then one point off with a BO... that is stinky and I don\'t like the looks of the whole package. Zito has Lezcano and Maragh on his two horses? HUH?
Oui, oui... Julien, it\'s all yours!
ALM-- we have reason to believe CM does not like poly because his race over it was worse than all his dirt races. but even if he does like it and just ran badly because he was short, we compare the top to his 2yo top, as others have said here. Which doesn\'t mean he can\'t bounce, but makes it a whole lot less likely than if he had a 6 top at two, and 6-0 on dirt this year.
MTB-- if he didn\'t have the first 2 dirt figures this year I would say he probably just didn\'t like synth. But he didn\'t immediately run big figures, he developed into them. As I said, it\'s probably 50/50 that he has another in him. I said after the Derby that he was the kind that could put in 3 big ones, because he didn\'t have big ones BEFORE the Derby, which most do. That gives him a better chance of running well than most off two big TC efforts, but it\'s still his third start in 5 weeks, 2 big efforts, lots of development.
SB-- I agree about the blinkers, I don\'t like new random factors with horses that have been running well. But price is a factor here.
Zito-- he clearly points horses for the Belmont, and they have fired off some awful looking lines, and more importantly, run new tops. I don\'t remember any Lukas horses running new tops in the Belmont, but I didn\'t go back and look. I did with Zito. And it makes it hard to throw his horses out just because their patterns are weak. That doesn\'t mean I\'m going to key them or play them heavy, but I\'m going to use them in exotics. Lukas too, underneath.
If you make MTB 100% to run well, he\'s still no better than 2-1 to win the race, just because there are two other horses with similar number power, and others that could run new tops, bad trip possibilities for all aside. Since nobody is ever 100% to run well, he has to be an underlay.
Commendable ran a big new top to win the race, but he also had five weeks rest.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Zito-- he clearly points horses for the Belmont,
> and they have fired off some awful looking lines,
> and more importantly, run new tops. I don\'t
> remember any Lukas horses running new tops in the
> Belmont, but I didn\'t go back and look. I did with
> Zito. And it makes it hard to throw his horses out
> just because their patterns are weak. That doesn\'t
> mean I\'m going to key them or play them heavy, but
> I\'m going to use them in exotics. Lukas too,
> underneath.
I\'m going for a key on Miner\'s Escape. Definitely some straight win money on this attractive price shot. I don\'t think his line looks awful, and I disagree that he\'s going backward on Saturday. As you noted, Zito points to these and we shouldn\'t ignore that fact when assessing the pattern. I\'m using his other runner too- maybe double key them in a tri w/All- based on Zito (and LaPenta) history.
Spring 3yos...this one moving up another 2-3 points at 15-1 is worth my play. He\'s just getting good now- I think that is intentional.
I\'ll cast a disenting vote.
Miner has already improved 9 points this year (as have MTB and Flying Private) and playing him to move forward another 2 or 3 points there I would need at least 80-1 because history shows that just dont happen much at all. DaTaras move last year to get to zero was from a 7 2-yrold top, much more statistically probable than getting there from an 11.
Last year, there were not many number power horses capable of running around a zero (once you threw out Big Brown), but this year there are several. You have to get to a zero to win it appears, and of the 2 Zito horses, the other has infinitely more upside, at least based on number power. Granted it seems he might not like this distance, but I\'d much rather be keying on him for a longshot than Miner.
Hi P. With two longshots in my top 3, I have some wiggle room here. Won\'t know what I\'ll do with CM until post time though. He gets more weight if the surface comes up anything like it did Peter Pan day. What type of odds are we looking at here? MTB 7-5, CM 3-1, Dunk 4-1, CC 13-1, SB 15-1?
Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hi P. With two longshots in my top 3, I have some
> wiggle room here. Won\'t know what I\'ll do with CM
> until post time though. He gets more weight if the
> surface comes up anything like it did Peter Pan
> day. What type of odds are we looking at here? MTB
> 7-5, CM 3-1, Dunk 4-1, CC 13-1, SB 15-1?
Odds are about right. I\'m bummed about the weather though, some nice turf races may be ruined by the rain.
Thanks for your thoughts TreadHead. He either moves up or he doesn\'t. As I said, I\'m factoring in Zito-intention here and that has me thinking this horse has a forward move coming second off the lay. Also ME has been a better horse since the blinks went on and winning back-to-back after finally breaking his maiden; he\'s showing development figs notwithstanding. The Mineshaft bloodline adds confidence; horses running a zero at 9 and 10f doesn\'t mean they\'ll repeat it at 12f. I\'ll take 80-1 if its offered,- ha! But I expect closer to 20 and I prefer that to sweating out CM at 5/2. Good luck to you.
Old school says,bet the winner,don\'t worry about the price. Calvin will be going so fast at the 1/8th pole,his saddle towel number will show 777.............
I wonder what Calvin\'s win % @ Belmont Park is............
Long time since I\'ve posted but this is an interesting race.
Straight off, I\'m with you on this pick. In my mind, this horse has \"new top - lone speed wire to wire\" written all over him. Or at least laying 2nd... This horse hasn\'t backed up yet and his last 2 suggest the distance is not going to be an issue.His works say he is still improving and I think you only need a 1 to win this race. He\'s got 35 days rest off that big top too. Perfect post position. A small forward move at 15-1 puts him in the trifecta - at least.
Charitable Man is not seasoned enough. I think he will bounce and if he\'s the one to beat, then a 1 is a realistic figure to project for this race.
The prospect of an off track hurts the chances of many and the others are too slow.
Finally, I agree with Jerry about MTB being 50-50 to back up and, FWIW just lemme tell yall something: I was raised on Long Island and lived there 26 years. I lived in New Mexico for 10 years. I worked at Belmont and the Downs at Albuquerque. There ain\'t no friggen way a horse from New Mexico is gonna win the Belmont Stakes.....
I don\'t pick enough winners to not worry about the price, don\'t know about you. I\'m taking a contrarian view of this race as I can find many reasons to avoid the short ones. MTB as the favorite off two big efforts, 3rd race 5 weeks, race shape etc... Charitable Man to me is as likely to react to his last as he is to pair and at a short price I\'ll take that view. 7-2 or better I\'ll take the rosy view. If Dunkirk is shorter than 6-1 he\'s easy for me to pass on, if not I\'ll use him defensively. I\'m going with the view that a 1 to 2 may be all it takes to win this. To that end I looked for horses that will be prices that could run those figs. I\'m going to toss the Churchill slop and take the view that today is the day for the synth to dirt explosion for Chocolate Candy and Mr. Hot Stuff. Summer Bird, Miners Escape and Flying Private are the other players for me. Keying CC & MHS with SB, ME & FP in exactas and tris sprinkling MTB, CM & Dunkirk in the bottom slot. Anchoring Pick 4\'s with CC & MHS. Good luck to all.