I don\'t recall there ever being as much consensus on this board over a big race as there seems to be for Charitable Man in the Belmont.
The contrarian in me tells me we are in alot of trouble as there\'s no way the game can be this easy.
For goodness sake, someone please give us the bear case on Charitable Man to change up the mojo a bit.
He\'s never won around two turns maybe? Someone give us something.
Doesn\'t anyone believe Calvin?
Covel:
The informed discourse will begin when we all have some TGs to work with.
Right now CM looks pace advantaged, but Pletcher or Lukas could always pull a
rabbit out of their hat when entries are taken.
If you are looking for chaos, two of the most unlikely Belmont winners in recent
years were D\'Tara and Commendable. The men who trained these runners each have
2 entries in this race.
Think the Jockey Club would let you name a foal \"Jimbo X\"?
carried only 116lbs in the Peter Pan?
has never wired the field in a route before, and will easily do such this Sat?
10 Lb weight pickup is the best argument against.You could also argue he\'s inexperienced and a little green(watch when Garcia hit him lefty in the PeterPan)in the stretch
Don\'t think you can get him on pace,12 furlong breeding,looks,surface affinity or connections.He\'s also done his time in the detention barn.One of these could lose the race in there.
Here, I\'ll throw some cold water on the whole thing:
Is the Belmont shaping up to be a big betting race? I don\'t see it.
OK, I\'ll hang up and listen now.
10 horses so far,6 confirmed slow rats,several with phony wide figs to boot.Not much mystery here, imo. CM very obvious to like,not without knocks but has the all important home court advantage.A rabbit would only enhance his tactical edge.
All need to answer the 10f question under 126lbs.
Mike
If Charitable Man is the best thing I can come up with and he\'s 3-1 and under (which I think is likely) I would pass.
Charitable Man is starting to remind me of a speed horse trained by Woody Stephens back in the \'80s. Colt\'s name was Gone West. He was way overbet in the year Alysheba was going for the Triple Crown and really was just a miler.
Bet Twice stalked,middle moved (he had a terrific turn of foot)and blew the field out by 14.
Find the colt in here with that kind of turn of foot who can stalk from not too far out of it and he is the one that blows by CM on the turn.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
miff Wrote:
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> 10 horses so far,6 confirmed slow rats,several
> with phony wide figs to boot.Not much mystery
> here, imo. CM very obvious to like,not without
> knocks but has the all important home court
> advantage.A rabbit would only enhance his tactical
> edge.
>
> All need to answer the 10f question under 126lbs.
>
>
> Mike
10F is not the question. 12F is the question. Those extra 2 can be
tricky. If you do not know how a horse will handle 10 (the big question in the Derby) why isn\'t the 12 an even bigger question?
After five straight winners a Clydesdale trained by Woody would have been overbet, Joe.
So Cal,
Brainlock, of course 12f!
Mike
Who is Dunkirk, Alex.
The Answer is: He ran back to his Florida Derby Figure and blew the race wide open on the turn.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
But how much did he wager on Final Jeopardy? That will be the question...
--Thanks!
Bill
What is his line? thanks
jbelfior Wrote:
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> Charitable Man is starting to remind me of a speed
> horse trained by Woody Stephens back in the \'80s.
> Colt\'s name was Gone West. He was way overbet in
> the year Alysheba was going for the Triple Crown
> and really was just a miler.
>
> Bet Twice stalked,middle moved (he had a terrific
> turn of foot)and blew the field out by 14.
>
>
> Find the colt in here with that kind of turn of
> foot who can stalk from not too far out of it and
> he is the one that blows by CM on the turn.
>
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
Gone West was pretty much a miler...Charitable Man does not look distance limited like Gone West. I think it\'s a bad example but who knows.
Lost:
I meant his pre-race hype more than his distance limitations.
I just think CM will be terribly overbet (off of what I don\'t know) and may even go off the favorite. DUNKIRK will love the sweeping turns, just not sure if he\'s fit enough.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
jbelfior Wrote:
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> Lost:
>
> I just think CM will be terribly overbet (off of
> what I don\'t know) and may even go off the
> favorite.
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
If this horse is the favorite, I will use Beyer figures for the rest of my life. No friggin way. We went over his in the other thread.
He\'ll be at least 3-1, MTB WILL be the favorite. Maybe the race won\'t be bettable, there are lots of great races on the undercard.
Once the TGs become available, I have a feeling we\'ll be having a lot of Dunkirk talk around here. You will probably get a nice price on him too.
I also believe that CM will be the post time favorite at around 9/5, and unless he has become Quality Road since the Peter Pan, Dunkirk has a damn good chance to run him down when he makes his move on the far turn. He will have the first run on CM. Chocolate Candy should go with him with Mine that Bird, Flying Private and Summer Bird making late runs.
P-Dub.
His morning line is 3-1 the same as it was in the Peter Pan, where he was the second choice on the morning line but got pounded at the windows.
I could be wrong, I can see him going off as the favorite too.
>
> I just think CM will be terribly overbet (off of
> what I don\'t know) and may even go off the
> favorite.
Are you nuts?
I\'ll give you an even money wager up to whatever $$ figure you want that Charitable Man will not be the favorite Saturday.
Name your price. I love free money.
Sekrah:
That\'s your opinion. Who cares if he goes off as the favorite or not. The point was that his resume will not match his post time odds.
Didn\'t they make Friesan Fire the Derby favorite? You never know what the lemmings who just bet on the Triple Crown races will do.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Not interested in that bet, just stating my opinion.
Monmouth,
We haven\'t agreed on much lately, and you make a good point about the Peter Pan. But looking at past history, the Derby winner gets bet down in the Belmont. Coupled with the fact he ran big in the Preakness, a race everybody watched, and that again the Belmont Stakes has a lot of \"casual\" money, I just don\'t see CM as the favorite. Getting pounded in the Peter PAn and getting bet in the Belmont are 2 different things.
I still believe CM goes off at least at his ML, not just because of MTB but also Dunkirk. 7/2 or 4/1 still seems possible for CM.
Joe B,
The reason FF was the Derby favorite was in large part due to his big effort in the slop, and the Derby was run over an off track.
Odds Prediction:
MTB: 7/5
CM: 4/1
Dunkirk: 6/1
At the above odds, Dunkirk may be my key. Still have 3 days to change my mind.
>
> Odds Prediction:
> MTB: 7/5
> CM: 4/1
> Dunkirk: 6/1
>
These odds are on the money IMO.. I wouldn\'t even put it past MTB being 6/5 or even money.
The NY Post had a whole article today on how all the \"experts\" believe Charitable Man will be an easy winner. With all the hype surrounding him and with many still skeptical of MTB...I don\'t think you\'ll get anything over 2-1 on CM. The people that crushed him in the Peter Pan will be back putting the big money on him again.
APny Wrote:
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> The NY Post had a whole article today on how all
> the \"experts\" believe Charitable Man will be an
> easy winner. With all the hype surrounding him
> and with many still skeptical of MTB...I don\'t
> think you\'ll get anything over 2-1 on CM. The
> people that crushed him in the Peter Pan will be
> back putting the big money on him again.
I am locking this thread. Everyone has had their opinions on what they think the odds will be.
We\'ll find out in 2 days.
Besides, I\'m right. See previous post.