Rachael\'s two breezes post the Preakness have been painfully slow compared to what she was doing leading up the Oaks.
I know that Steve A doesn\'t typically work his horses too fast in the AM but what strikes me about this is that no one could hold her back in the mornings leading up to the Oaks. It wasn\'t like the jockeys were asking her, she was just pulling them along that fast
So,
1) she either needs alot more time off than they are planning for her (if she is still running in the Mother Goose), or
2) Steve A is teaching her to relax in the mornings and if that translates into a race, imagine how scary she would be if she could sit back a bit off the pace and then unleash her move. Don\'t know that there\'s a colt in training who could beat her if she learns to do that.
Which one do we think it is?
Steve has had her long enough to screw her up..........unquote.
With all due respect, Covel, I vote for #3, \"Good God, who cares, enough
already\".
RA will race maybe 3 more times in her career. Unless she takes on males in the
BC, she will not be available at odds of greater than 6/5. (Yes she would be
favored in the Haskell or Travers).
Owner Jackson likes the limelight as much as a certain elected official who
will go unnamed. I mean come on man, 4 or 5 paragraphs on why RA isn\'t going to
run in the Belmont? You could have just said \"Our filly is tired. She needs
some R&R. [Here add ownertrainerspeak like \"She will tell us when she\'s ready to
run.\"]\"
I mean if Jackson\'s statement was one paragraph longer,he would have had to
mention the Darley Arabian, The Byerly (sp)Turk and the Godolphin Barb.
I would rather discuss something which may present a more lucrative result, such
as where will Alsy Goldberg go with his NY Bred turf runner by Giant\'s Causeway
who came back from a layoff in such impressive fashion on Memorial Day?
sad state of affairs when it\'s not interesting to talk about what may be (obviously very debatable) the greateast filly of all time.
I very much disagree, I think issue of whether she learns to relax in her races is very relevant for things like the Travers, the Jockey Cup and even the the Dubai World Cup. Sadly, Jackson isn\'t going to be around to watch her babies run so I wouldn\'t be surprised to see her in training next year.
Agree on the likelihood of Rachel running as a 4YO. Perhaps that is how Jackson was convinced not to run her in the Belmont. If you want her running as a 4YO - or even as a Fall 3YO - you can\'t run her into the ground as a Spring 3YO.
covelj70,
For the serious handicapper may not care,the state of racing needs a hero and she
is certainly that.For example: my own mother is absolutely against gambling of
any sort,but when she told me she was was glued to the tube prior the preakness to see if the \"girl\" horse would fare well,it reminded me that as serious horseplayers it\'s O.K. to be in wonderment about our champions on a daily basis even when we\'re trying to hit the double at indiana downs,the tri at belmont,and
the huge pick six carryover at wherever.Personally,I hope she races for a few more
years and only gets better.
mjs
mjs
I think it\'s neither of the above, it\'s:
3) Athletes are brought up (physically and mentally) to peak efforts, then let down, then brought back up again.
If she couldn\'t be held following the Preakness effort, I\'d think something was wrong.
This is completely normal and doesn\'t indicate any change of form at all to me - it\'s just \"low level maintenance\".
You can\'t keep an athlete at \"rock hard peak\" for the entire season.
She\'s on a bit of summer let down, she\'ll be brought back up before the next race on her calendar.
And that will probably depend upon what she tells them she wants to do (they\'ll wait until she asks for more work)
Edit: and the Mother Goose, if they run in it, will be nothing more than a good public workout.
Covel:
From what she has accomplished in her racing career, which is basically beating
up on tomato cans of both genders while the goofy Cajun tries to imitate a
drunk at a Mardi Gras parade from the eighth pole on home, she doesn\'t even
deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as Ouija Board, who campaigned
against the best males on 3 continents and more than held her own. (Ouija Board:
Champion Euro 3YO filly 2004; Eclipse Award Winning Turf Female 2004 and 2006;
European Horse of the Year 2004 and 2006; European Champion Older Horse 2006)
While we are talking turf runners, how about All Along? In 1983, she won the
Prix de Arc de Triomphe, Rothmans International, Aqueduct Turf Classic and the
Washington DC International. Four graded stakes v males in 3 countries in 40
days. 1983 Horse of the Year.
Personal Ensign, Ladys Secret, Bayakoa, Go For Wand, Ruffian...
My personal favorite, Gold Beauty, Eclipse Award winning sprinter, maybe the
bluest of all the blue hens...
Not to mention Teriyaki Steak, who once won five races in a calendar month
in an Oscar winning performance (just joking).
All RA has done so far is put up some very low TG numbers, like Commentator (NY
bred fast rat), Midnight Lute, Smarty Jones and Bellamy Road (perhaps the
ultimate equine one- hit wonder).
Speaking of Mr. Jackson, he may have done Racing a big favor by holding RA out
of the Preakness: that way there would be a possibility that Mine That Bird
could be headed to Belmont with a shot at the Triple Crown with the big filly
RA looking to play spoiler. Under that scenario, Belmont/NYRA would be looking
at a crowd in excess of 100,000. As it stands now they will be lucky to see half
of that, and will probably settle for 35,000 - 45,000.
I will go as far as to say you are wrong about one thing, where you say that it
is \"obviously very debatable\" that she is the \"greatest filly of all time\".
From what RA has accomplished thus far in her career, the only statement which
is beyond debate is that she is the best 3YO in training this year.
Not sure what you have against this filly but I think to make your comparison to those fillies nore useful you would have to compare what each of those fillies had done by May of their 3 year old season to what RA has done to date. I think RA stacks up very well on that score.
You are giving those other fillies credit for accomplishments that Rachael hasn\'t had a chance at yet.
Would your view change if she wins the Travers or if she stays in training and beats olders horses next year?
She has to stay in training and get the job done in those races in order to deserve all of the cheers but hey, let\'s give her a chance to do that before we start bad mouthing her.
Covel:
I have nothing against this filly.
Your \"what she accomplished by May of her 3YO year\" is part of the problem with
Racing today -- work them short and fast as 2YOs, race them hard (in these days
5-6 times per year)as 3YOs, and retire a lot of them as 4YOs. Racing fails,
builds no fan base, the breed becomes more fragile and less competitive with
each passing year.
A good example of this is Dunkirk, who has caught a lot of people\'s attention.
Lets say he wins the Belmont and one other Grade 1 this year. Any chance he
races at 4?
I\'m just old school, Covel.
Part of my problem is that I have seen a lot of brilliant horses perform. I saw
2 Triple Crown winners and a near miss. The near miss went on to have one of
the greatest racing seasons ever as a 4YO, so you know I am not talking about
Smarty Jones.
It seems like we need to have a coronation each year of the next \"greatest horse
ever\". This year it is RA. Last year it was Big Brown (anybody remember him?) A
lot of racing fans and folks with a vested interest in Racing such as yourself
seem to think Racing can be saved by 2 or 3 great race horses or a Triple Crown
winner; Racing is way more broken than that.
As I discussed in a previous post with Jimbo (who I think is sitting on a big
Belmont day after \"x\" ing last Saturday), in the old days, pre Breeders Cup and
when the top races tended to be held in 3 venues (NY, Cal, Winter in Florida)
you could have looked forward to Zenyatta and RA establishing a great rivalry
and maybe facing each other 3 or 4 times.
Racing needs more quality horses running more frequently on fewer racetracks.
Synthetic racing needs to be looked at as an experiment which failed and at
least one of the 2 California tracks needs to go back to old fashioned dirt
racing.
The economics of Racing and breeding needs to change. Unraced stallions, 4YO
stallions all to be excluded. Fewer graded stakes races-- think of the effect
this would have on field size in graded races.
Was I making a point here? Oh yes, I have nothing against this filly.
I just do not like it when smart folks such as yourself jump on a bandwagon or
fall for hype; it is more challenging and ultimately more rewarding to evaluate
RA\'s performance cooly and objectively. She dominated overmatched foes in a
short Oaks field. She caught some tired rivals in the Preakness.
People are fickle. If MTB had beaten RA in Baltimore, and he came very close to
doing so, we wouldn\'t even be talking about her now.
But I am nothing if not fair. I promise to bow down to her if and when she wins
all the big races you have mentioned.
Richie,
I just literally fell out of my chair laughing about the part in here on Jimbo sitting on a big one for the Belmont after \"Xing\" last Saturday. In a lifetime of great posts, this is the absolute best. Absolutely phenomenal.
I agree that Jimbo is going to be huge this Saturday if for no other reason that he and I agree on Charitable Man and I trust in Jimbo so much that I went out and bought another share of Lemon Drop Kid this week which will work out nicely if we ge lucky with Charitable Man.
Great great stuff.
\"In Jimbo We Trust?\"
Every blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn. Maybe mine is Saturday.
Appreciate the vote of confidence from Covelj and Richie Bee
Acorn....I like that given that \"The Acorn\" is part of the pk 4 and pk 6 sequences, I think that is an omen.
Jimbo, there\'s 10 horses in the Brookylyn. How many will you let me use singled to Charitable Man in the Brooklyn/Belmont double so that I can avoid your ire?
Covelj,
I am going to give you my real answer, instead of the sarcastic one!!
It depends. Figure 5-2 on Charitable Man and hope for 3-1.
I would not want to bet doubles with horses that cumulatively get more than 33% of the win pool in the Brooklyn. If you do, you are effectively diluting the Charitable Man bet too much.
So, single a 5-2 shot if you like one.
Or play 2 horses in the 4-1ish range. Or 3 or 4 in the 10-1 range.
Got any views on the Brooklyn? The sheets nor the morning line are available, just the DRF PP\'s. But, since he is top weighted and won this race last year, the handicapping starts with Delosvientos. He stopped to a crawl last race and the connections are blaming the jockey. Hard to see how being beat by 57 lengths can be the jockey\'s fault, but I hope the public buys that excuse and makes him the favorite. Albertrani is running an entry, of which only one will run. If he runs Ea back in this spot, I am interested. Was stuck with an against the bias closing move on Preakness day and dead-heated for 2nd in a race won by the Beattie horse that TGJB/AB nailed. Before that Ea had paired 0\'s, I believe. Should sit a nice trip behind the speed. The other interesting one is Rising Moon. Had what would seem to be a good prep where in a 3 horse field Cornelio \"braincramped\" and decided to gun for the lead and get into a duel while Dry Martini sat back and gobbled him up in the stretch. Good switch to Gomez and a more patient ride, behind Delosvieotos would make him tough.
But just to be crystal clear Covelj, wheeling Charmitable Man with the top 5 or 6 betting choices in the Brooklyn would be horrible (again) and likely to elicit another \"you bet like an owner\" wiseass remark. :)
Good luck.
Jimbo,
oustanding, love this.
you will make a gambler out of me yet :) forget the fact that I just bet the farm on this additional Lemon Drop share, I want more leverage to this regally bred son of Lemon Drop!
I will throw up some thoughts on the Brooklyn when the sheets are posted (tomorrow night?) to get some thoughts on who I will use (3 at most, I promise!!!!)
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jimbo,
>
> oustanding, love this.
>
> you will make a gambler out of me yet :) forget
> the fact that I just bet the farm on this
> additional Lemon Drop share, I want more leverage
> to this regally bred son of Lemon Drop!
>
> I will throw up some thoughts on the Brooklyn when
> the sheets are posted (tomorrow night?) to get
> some thoughts on who I will use (3 at most, I
> promise!!!!)
Are the entries drawn yet for the Belmont? You figure with everyone knowing the Belmont is coming up paceless one of the two closers (Mine that Bird or Dunkirk would have a rabbit in there to keep things honest for them). If they don\'t I\'m gonna wish I bought a piece of Lemon Drop Kid myself after the race.
lol,
Pletcher said he was going to discuss with Tabor and Maginier about entering a rabbit.
I don\'t think that will matter that much though as Charitable Man rated off the pace in the Peter Pan so I don\'t think a rabbit would ruin him....at least I hope.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Covelj,
>
> It depends. Figure 5-2 on Charitable Man and hope
> for 3-1.
>
I don\'t think CM goes off that short.
MTB will be favored. You\'ve also got Dunkirk, who has been touted by everybody for months. Chocolate Candy will take some money. In a 10 horse field, I wouldn\'t be surprised if CM is around 4-1 or 9/2. You won\'t have any problem getting the 3/1 you\'re hoping for.
I definitely hope 7-2 or 4-1 is right but the way Kirian is chatting this horse up around the barn, I actually think he will go off at 2-1. Hope I am wrong.
Lost Cause,
Entries are drawn tomorrow.
I don\'t think Charitable Man gets loose on the lead. I am pretty sure that TG\'s race shape will say that he does, but you have to figure things like trainer intent. A couple factors. Everybody and their mother is talking about Charitable Man being \"loose\" early. There is way too much awareness of this going into the race. Secondly, Zito won the Belmont wire to wire last year and coincidentally he has the only other horse with a semblance of early speed, Miner\'s Escape. He has pressed the lead in his last two races, albeit at relatively slow fractions. However, the Belmont fractions are almost always slow. Also, Kiaran has been seemingly trying to get Charitable Man to relax a bit, directing the jockey to slow it down in the last workout. Kiaran is about as confident as I can remember reading him be. I doubt he tells Garcia, \"send\". If you think you have the best horse, you tell the jockey to just leave the gate and allow the colt to run at his pace. Whereas whoever is riding Miner\'s Escape should be \"sending\".
I actually think CM sits second, off relatively slow fractions. I have to see the figures, but in that scenario, Miner\'s Escape could be the longshot to include underneath, as all the closers wait for a pace to materialize that never will.
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I definitely hope 7-2 or 4-1 is right but the way
> Kirian is chatting this horse up around the barn,
> I actually think he will go off at 2-1. Hope I am
> wrong.
Lots of trainers do this, and I\'m sure KM isn\'t just blowing smoke.
But the Belmont is another of those races that attracts lots of \"casual\" money from people who have no clue who KM is or what he is saying. I would be shocked if he\'s 2-1. If CM is 2-1, what does that make MTB, 3/2 ?? MTB will be the favorite.
Just don\'t see CM going off at anything below 3/1.
Agree.. There\'s NO WAY IN HELL Charitable Man goes off at anything less than 3/1.. I wouldn\'t be surprised if we saw 9/2 or 5-1.
Rachel was 9/5 in the Preakness and the next 3 were POTN at 6-1, MTB 6-1, FF 9-1.
MTB has 6/5, 7/5 potential here. Dunkirk will pull money in, Flying Private will go off at no longer than 10-1, IMO.
Beyer gave Charitable Man a horrible figure for the Peter Pan, 93 or 96? This will definently help those of us on CM.
Sekrah and P-Dub,
I hope you are right, but I sincerely doubt it. 3-1, maybe. 4-1, never. He won\'t be the 2-1 that Covelj is worrying about, but he won\'t be much higher.
Mine that Bird will be the favorite, but somewhere above even money. 7-5?
Dunkirk will take some money. 9-2?
But then other than mabye chocolate candy, nobody else less than 10-1.
Sekrah,
The Preakness had more viable options. POTN was 2nd in the Derby. Friesan Fire was the Derby favorite. Mine that Bird, the Derby winner. Rachel, the runaway Oaks winner. Papa Clem and Musket Man finished 3rd and 4th in the Derby with solid runs.
If Flying Private is 10-1 or under, the world is flat and Santa Claus exists.
Flying Private got a 102 Beyer out the Preakness.
Him, Dunkirk, and MTB are the only ones in the race that have ran a Beyer over 100. FP will take money!
The casual bettor who only bets triple crown races don\'t know beans about Charitable Man. They do know Flying Private made a deep closing run in the Preakness and those types tend to get play in the Belmont.
Charitable Man\'s past performances in the Daily Racing Form do not scream clear-cut 2nd Favorite to MTB.
He is 3-for-3 on dirt, and 2-for-2-graded-stakes at Belmont. I\'d think 7/5 for MTB and 3-1 for CM is about right.
You are of course spot on.
The only filly you left off your list, to my recollection, is Shuvee who won consecutive Jockey Club Gold Cups at 2 miles...maybe the all time filly endurance champion.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> With all due respect, Covel, I vote for #3, \"Good
> God, who cares, enough
> already\".
> I would rather discuss something which may present
> a more lucrative result, such
> as where will Alsy Goldberg go with his NY Bred
> turf runner by Giant\'s Causeway
> who came back from a layoff in such impressive
> fashion on Memorial Day?
That would have been Straight Story.
\"Alsy\" Goldberg ran him in the 500k race at Colonial.
SS won\'t be 8/1 next time.
A rather unlikely trip but a very sharp effort.
Tough beat if you bet him top end only.
Nice spot Richie B. The bear out last off the big new top was worrisome (at least to me), but sometimes they\'re just a bit green, which appears to be the case in this spot. The 7 was competitive with a ground saving trip.
A well bred NY rat, isn\'t he?