I feel a bit bad about posting a race where my key who figures 8-1, is WAY outside the comfort zone/wheelhouse of my good friend Covelj. 8-1 is like \"pick 6\" type odds for him.....
Here is another play. (it is serious, as I do plan to play it).
The last pick-4 at Belmont is not going to produce a big payoff unfortunately, but I do think it is hittable with relatively few combinations.
The key is singling the 2nd choice, Magical Affair, in the 9th. Not going to be a great \"win bet\" at 9-5 or 2-1, but I think singling these kind can be ok. Has paired up 5\'s and the last one she had legitimate trouble in the race, as she was almost knocked off her feet at the start. Then, she had to run down a loose on the lead LAragh who opened up 7 at the top of the stretch. She ran a credible second, making up a lot of ground in the stretch. She will run a new top tomorrow, or at least I plan to bet her to do so. The only other \"fast\" horse in the race is Gozzip Girl, who figures to go off favored. Her turf top is also a 5, but IMO she is much less likely to run a new top and spots Magical Affair 4 lbs. Even if they both run the 5, I still make Magical Affair the more likely winner because of the weight break and as I said I think she is significantly more likely to run a new top. (Covelj, please don\'t use both to \"lock up\" the race :)
Two of the other three races are chalky. In the finale, the top 3 horses are all fast and likely to run. Wild Entry, Evolutionist and Spanish Art. Spanish Art probably puts a bit more value in the pick-4.
In the 7th, it is also pretty logical. None of the firsters look particularly strong to me, as none have had siblings that have run well at 2 or come from potent sire/trainer 1st out combinations. The rail horse has figures, but is always finding at least one horse to beat him and I expect that to be the case again. Now, they add blinkers to a horse that has already shown good gate speed. I will use the 3 outside horses, all 2nd time starters. William THomas was bet first time out, showed speed, then stopped. The 9 blew the start but has precocious breeding. The 10 got a terrible ride by Prado last time and was also victim of great race riding by Gomez. His last out was the last leg of a pick-4 in which I was 3 deep with him being one that I didn\'t use. Turning for home, he was alongside Gomez\'s horse and looked to have a handful of horse, but Gomez kept him hemmed in behind another until he cleared and was gone. Prado was not free until very late.
So, where does the value come from. Well, it comes from the 8th race. Three horses, all at decent prices are very live IMO. Stormy Relations at 15-1 bounced after a big effort. Now comes back on relatively short rest. With the rail and a ground saving trip, he could be very competitive with a return to his prior race. 15-1 is great value. Missvinski has back figures that are competitive. Didn\'t run last time out, first time Mott. Mott can usually improve a turf horse, but I am willing to bet that he can at least gert the horse back to his turf top. At 15-1 on the ML, why not now? And lastly, the race looks pretty paceless. Dominguez might make the lead from the outside post and if he does, and gets the horse to pair up, she can win. 8-1 on the ML is fair value.
Good luck.
Jim
Good luck with your play. I\'m gonna include the #4 in the last race at 15/1, which I think will be closer to 30/1. I like this combo in this spot despite the poor efforts thus far.
David Donk was on the radio with Steve Byk yesterday and likes his chances with Stormy Relations. Should get at least 10-1. Wild Entry is scratched which makes the 10th a better betting race-using the 1a,5,7,8
Jimbo, this is awesome.
I am focusing on Hollywood and Churchill today where one of my filles is running in a MSW so Belmont and your big odds is all you today.
I will take care of Belmont next weekend :)
good luck to all!
Covelj,
which horse is yours at Churchill?
Jim
Voodoo Child, she finished up the track. Onto Hollywood!!!!
When you added the #4 in the 10th, you take it all. Exacta, tri and super. I didn\'t play the tri but took the $ 400 exacta and part of the $ 15K super.