As posted in my other thread, this is the return of Lemon CHiffon, a horse that a few of us bet on Derby day. (also given out in the TG analysis, I believe).
Very tough race on Saturday. I will go through the horses with a few comments. Welcome feedback of course.
Tuscan Evening - Has run the \"5\" three straight times. Gets 3 weeks into this, which may not be enough to make me think she can run a new top, but at 117 pounds, with a very very likely 1w/1w trip as the controlling speed, she will be very competitive. A contender.
Bel Air Sizzle - Fast enough to win at her best, But the last three times she has gotten down to the 4 or 5 level, she has bounced off of it. Gets rest, but with the history of bouncing, plus a running style that usually loses ground, a toss for me.
Toque de Queda - Had a rough trip last time, and could have run faster with a clean run. Does get 6 lbs from some of the fast ones, but really only has 1 race that makes her a winner here and since she will take money, she will be an underlay. Also, Frankel horses usually fire first off the layoff and don\'t necessarily improve during the campaign.
Diamond Diva - Is a fast filly but the 6 lbs she spots the field just makes her \"one of the ones\". I project her for a 2w/2w trip as the secondary speed, lapped on the rail horse. I also think this filly runs her best at 1 mile and the extra 1/8th may be beyond her best. The combination of the extra 6 lbs, the 2w/2w trip, the short price and the extra 1/8th of a mile, make me mostly negative on this horse, but I will protect my key horse underneath her.
Modification - Fast on synthetics. Ran poorly on turf in her lone start on the surface, albeit on turf with give in it. This is a salty bunch of turf horses for a non-turf horse to be trying. Pass.
Visit - Tough read for me. The positives are that her top of 3, getting 6 lbs is very competitive and the fact that the top was earned over this course makes her even stronger. However, none of the three races this year make her a contender. However, one was synthetic and she had trouble in another. If she finally goes off at a price, which may be possible with Blanc now riding instead of Gomez, she is usable, but not a key for me.
Magical Fantasy - Ran well last time, but gets punished for it by having to carry 123. She hasn\'t run quite as well at Hollywood as she has elsewhere and figures to lose some ground with the outside post. However, as a 4 year old, she has more upside than some of the older ones in here. I would let the price decide it for me, but the most I would use her would be boxed with my key.
Ainamaa - Slow with these plus won\'t get the easy front-running position she got in her last two races. Toss.
Foxy Sox - Another that can run around a \"4\" and gets 4 lbs from the fast ones. Will be stuck outside and lose ground. As a 6 year old, not likely to run a new top. However, the 4 with a trip makes her a contender in a race with lots of contenders.
Black Mamba - Her last race was very good, her best yet. However, at 123 lbs, that is really the only race she has run that can win here and with post 10, she will likely be losing ground. Hard to play her to pair up the big number, and she will likely be short on the odds board. Defensive use only.
Lemon Chiffon - Before her last a very consistent horse. And the race last time she drew the heavy rail. I think the 1 1/8 fits her like a glove and in at 117 lbs, Mike Smith just needs to get her over to the rail heading into the first turn for her to have a very good shot here at overlaid odds.
Conclusion - Hard to say who goes off at what odds without even a Morning Line to look at, but I expect Lemon Chiffon to go off at 8-1 or so. In that range she can be a square win bet and a key in the late pick-4 for me. There are so many horses that can run in the same range it is tough to say which ones to use in exotics without seeing odds, but I am likely to use Tuscan Evening and Toque de Qada heavier in exotics with Lemon Chiffon and sprinkle in Visit and Foxysox, assuming they are decent prices.
Good luck
Thanks for the analysis Jimbo. I haven\'t looked at the race yet, but was Modification\'s number so poor on the first effort over the lawn, that even the likely improvement 2nd time out won\'t figure the horse for the exotic?
Thanks again.
She ran a 9 on the turf, at a time in her development where she had just a 4 on dirt and had previously run a \"0\".
He did run a 2 this year on Santa Anita Pro-Ride, which is very close to turf. If you want to project that number to turf, you can bet this horse. I just think this is a tough spot for a non-turf horse as there are some quality turf distaffers in this race.
But the price will be there Jack, so IMO, when in doubt about whether to include a horse, the price always drives that decision. Don\'t let me talk you off a 20-1 shot like Modification.
Good analysis Jim.
I\'m going to have BAS in the top 3 spots. Fast enough, much better timing here, and 9f appears to be a good fit. Closes wide, but will be 1w on the 1st turn.
I say this jokingly, but your post reads like a Ragozin ROTW post.
Treadhead,
Geez, you are going to get me banned from this board......
BTW. Morning line is out. 20-1 on Lemon Chiffon. Don\'t think I get that, but I am all in at half that. Time to take the rubber band off the bankroll.....
Jimbo,
Great analysis, thanks for the thoughts.
Just one thing to add on Visit. The Oasis Dream\'s like very firm turf. That\'s why we are starting to see some being shipped over from Europe (I just bought one over myself).
So, I think the last three from Visit may not be represetative as there were 2 on the soft going and the syn effort.
I think she has a chance to run back to the better numbers from last year in this one.
Thanks again and good luck
Covelj,
Thanks for that info. As you could see from my post, I was very unsure of what to make of this horse, since he had the top last year at Hollywood that would give him a good shot to win, carrying only 117, if she gets a trip. Now you gave me the excuse I was looking for to use her a bit more.
Jim
Jimbo:
Good analysis.
The Equibase charts from Kentucky Derby day seem to confirm the dead rail
designation; reading the comments it seems as if most riders were guiding their
mounts away from the inside, the notable exceptions being Lemon Chiffon and
Proudinsky, who I am still waiting to go by Big Brown on the lawn at Monmouth.
Interesting tidbit from the Equibase chart: \"Lemon Chiffon .... angled to the
rail once in the stretch, made a run to the leaders near the sixteenth marker,
WAS A BIT TENTATIVE PASSING A GAP IN THE INNER HEDGE WITH SIXTY YARDS TO GO...\"
(emphasis added).
Also reviewing the charts from Derby Day, Cowboy Cal (who I liked quite a bit
that day) and Court Vision, each of whom ran well against Einstein in the
Woodford, were listed by Crist as probable starters in the Manhattan on the
Belmont Stakes undercard.
A little disconcerting that you say that LC will be your \"key in the P4\" on the
mattresstrack at Follywood. 2 of the 4 races in the P4 sequence are on the
surface you so vehemently excoriate (frequently) on this very board; I\'ll let P-
Dub pick it up from there.
The final race in that sequence is (as it always almost is) is a wide open
maiden claimer with 14 entered, I will probably dabble in some doubles.
At double digit odds, I would think you would be satisfied with the win bet and
the vertical wagers...
Best of luck. If things dont work out you can always tell your son that
Cortland State is every bit as much fun as Cornell (I probably had too much fun
at both places), though I am sure that the wagering bankroll and the tuition
bankroll are under 2 separate rubber bands.
Richiebee,
I did see that comment in the chart although having watched the replay a few times, I don\'t really see what they are referring to. I just didn\'t think Lemon Chiffon could accelerate there in the heavier going.
You are right, I am not going to play the pick-4 but not because of my excoriating. (I thought excoriating only happened after bad Mexican food??). When I first wrote the post I had no morning line to work with, and I mistakenly thought 6-1/8-1. At double digit odds, I am more than happy to play the win pool and play vertical.
The tuition rubberband is out of my reach. It is controlled by the battle axe also known as my wife...... Her redboarding is rivaled only by the legendary chuckles the clown.....
Jim
I was only kidding Jimbo, I thought you did a fine job. Good luck today.
You\'re afraid of your wife? Thought you were a nose tackle....lol
I remember when my wife and I were dating, took her to the County Fair and she rode the Ferris Wheel while I watched from below. On the third time around, she slipped out of the bottom of the seat and landed right on the dirt!! I rushed over and asked her if she was hurt, she said,\" Well, yeah... Three times I go around and you don\'t even wave.\" Strange creatures.
I\'m gonna play Mike\'s horse with some super\'s. You place your 20/1 somewhere in the top portion and the ROI is very nice.