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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: jimbo66 on May 28, 2009, 05:15:11 PM

Title: Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub
Post by: jimbo66 on May 28, 2009, 05:15:11 PM
P-Dub,

Not sure if you caught it, but Lemon Chiffon runs back this weekend.  Specifically on Saturday at Hollywood.  She drew post 11 so Mike Smith might have to give her a wide trip....  Seriously though, this filly looked very strong heading into the Churchill race but drew a very dead rail on the turf course.  Even with the outside post, she could be very tough in this field.  Will have to wait to see the sheets of her competition.  With her closing style, the outside post shouldn\'t hurt too much.  Gets six pounds from Diamond Diva, Magical Fantasy and Black Mamba, who are the top weighted horses. This could be a very juicy betting race.  More to follow once TGAB and TGJB get off their cans and get the Saturday data up and available...........
Title: Re: Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub
Post by: spa on May 28, 2009, 08:51:20 PM
She will run a powerful race. Dead rail theory says they move up next start,,,,,,,,,,ps she\'s 15=1
Title: Re: Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub
Post by: P-Dub on May 29, 2009, 02:33:14 AM
Jimbo,

Didn\'t see that, I really liked her at CD and had a decent sized wager on her. Regarding Black Mamba, can\'t remember the race (perhaps BC weekend or Big Cap weekend) but she was an awful favorite on TG and made a nice score against her.

Good luck this weekend...looking forward to see what Mike does with LC.
Title: Re: Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub
Post by: Dana666 on May 30, 2009, 10:49:48 AM
Interesting, the rail was really dead at CD? I always liked this filly, and I think many of her foes today aren\'t that good. Diamond Diva, if she runs back to last year\'s form, is the main threat, but Diva wasn\'t that great upon her return. I\'d take a swing with Lemon Chiffon for sure. Could be a good P4 b/c in the 7th Miss Silver Brook looks formidable and the other two races are wide open, we could get some bombs. Could be the old single-all-single-all play!
Title: Re: Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub
Post by: spa on May 30, 2009, 05:19:05 PM
What kind of ride was that???????????????
Title: Re: Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub
Post by: Dana666 on May 30, 2009, 09:11:54 PM
Well, he sure didn\'t ride her with any confidence. I may have over-rated her though. She ran a little late was all, not much kick at the end; maybe she doesn\'t want to go that far, though her breeding would indicate otherwise. Back to square one I guess.
Title: Re: Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub
Post by: miff on May 31, 2009, 07:11:17 AM
I\'ll disagree and say that her trip was very \"uncomfortable\" Think she ran better than her pp\'s will look.Smith tried to leave out of there for a spot and that did not work out.


Mike
Title: Re: Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub
Post by: P-Dub on May 31, 2009, 01:46:54 PM
spa Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What kind of ride was that???????????????


You guys are beautiful.

If Smith rode Secratariat,  you would complain because he didn\'t win by 35 lengths instead of 31.

What, Specifically,  was wrong with the ride??
Title: Re: Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub
Post by: congaree1 on May 31, 2009, 01:53:29 PM
Nothing wrong with the ride, that I could see. My guess is the post sucked...
Title: Re: Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub
Post by: P-Dub on May 31, 2009, 02:30:11 PM
congaree1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Nothing wrong with the ride, that I could see. My
> guess is the post sucked...

Agreed Congaree.

He had the 11 post, tried his best to minimize ground loss on the first turn.  He saved a bit on the last turn while Black Mamba went widest of all.

BTW, if Smith had ridden BM, and had given that horse the same wide trip, what would you guys have to say then?? Roario had that horse last at every call, so don\'t give me the bad post excuse.

LC wasn\'t good enough, perhaps the distance was a bit much.

Where is the hysteria over Rosario\'s ride, or do we only selectively criticize rides around here, since so many of you are expert riders??
Title: Re: Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub
Post by: spa on May 31, 2009, 03:08:41 PM
How do you think Calvin would have ridden the filly? Who,by the way,ran a great race. Calvin gets all my money for the Belmont.............If you hate your money,bet against him.
Title: Re: Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub
Post by: congaree1 on May 31, 2009, 03:39:36 PM
Again, IMO LC drew a terrible post and she might be limited on the distance. Calvin would had the same results..
Title: Re: Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub
Post by: jimbo66 on May 31, 2009, 04:59:32 PM
Paul,

It was a lousy ride.  He didn\'t cost her the race, she wasn\'t good enough, at least not yesterday.  Perhaps it was the distance or maybe the cross country trek, or maybe she just is a cut below this type, but I would give her one more chance.

He had post 9, not 11, there were two scratches.  And at 1 1/8 on the turf course, there is a lot of time to get over.

Smith had a choice to make, either leave a little and then tuck, to try and get midpack or just head over to the rail and let her late kick carry her, if she was good enough.  Instead he tentatively left, got her caught 3 wide, in the middle of nowhere, then on the 2nd turn, he decided not to swing her wide and see if she had run, but rather let her muddle along in the middle of the track.  

I think Miff had it right when he said she could never get comfortable during the race.  At the right price, I would give her another shot at the right price.

This will not go into Smith\'s hall of fame scrapbook for good rides.  It was lousy.  It happens.  Not just to Smith, but saying nothing was wrong with the ride when it was lousy isn\'t correct.
Title: Re: Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub
Post by: Michael D. on May 31, 2009, 06:18:54 PM
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Paul,
>
> It was a lousy ride.  He didn\'t cost her the race,
> she wasn\'t good enough, at least not yesterday.
> Perhaps it was the distance or maybe the cross
> country trek, or maybe she just is a cut below
> this type, but I would give her one more chance.
>
> He had post 9, not 11, there were two scratches.
> And at 1 1/8 on the turf course, there is a lot of
> time to get over.
>
> Smith had a choice to make, either leave a little
> and then tuck, to try and get midpack or just head
> over to the rail and let her late kick carry her,
> if she was good enough.  Instead he tentatively
> left, got her caught 3 wide, in the middle of
> nowhere, then on the 2nd turn, he decided not to
> swing her wide and see if she had run, but rather
> let her muddle along in the middle of the track.
>
>
> I think Miff had it right when he said she could
> never get comfortable during the race.  At the
> right price, I would give her another shot at the
> right price.
>
> This will not go into Smith\'s hall of fame
> scrapbook for good rides.  It was lousy.  It
> happens.  Not just to Smith, but saying nothing
> was wrong with the ride when it was lousy isn\'t
> correct.



The ride was just fine Jim. There was no rail trip coming, not with that horse from that post. And there was no perfect 2w trip from the 9 hole. You got the trip you should have handicapped.
Title: Re: Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub
Post by: P-Dub on June 01, 2009, 01:32:03 AM
spa Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> How do you think Calvin would have ridden the
> filly? Who,by the way,ran a great race. Calvin
> gets all my money for the Belmont.............If
> you hate your money,bet against him.

Spa,

You didn\'t answer my question. I asked you to specifically tell me what was wrong with the ride. I didn\'t ask you how the greatest rider in history,  Calvin Borel, would have ridden the horse.

Apparently to win a race,  all you have to do is hire Borel and watch him magically ride the rail to victory.  The post doesn\'t matter,  nor does it matter how many horses may be in the way of getting to the rail.  Yep, that Borel guy will save ground and win..every time.

BTW, if you want to bet on Borel at around 2-1 for the Belmont,  knock yourself out. Don\'t pull a Chuckles and tell me you had the winner if MTB loses.

I sincerely hope that Borel tries to come up the rail sometime soon and gets trapped,  so I don\'t have to read anymore nonsense about how this guy always saves ground and wins. You may get tired of me defending Smith,  but its double for me reading how if only Calvin had ridden \"fill in the blank\" he/she would have won.  

Borel is an excellent rider, and I\'m not saying he can\'t ride.  Far from it, dude is fearless and I have no problem having my money on him. But enough already.


Jimbo,

11 post or 9 post, your splitting hairs with this distinction. You\'re saying he should haave choked the filly back to last. dropped to the rail, come up the rail on the last turn and win?? Really??

He let that filly put herself where SHE wanted to be, a little wide?? Yes, but what do you expect with that post?? The trip wasn\'t that bad, 3 wide down the backstretch,  about 5 lengths off a 47 3/5 half, clear running. Smith saved as much ground as he could turning for home, at least 3 paths better than Black Mamba who was dead last.

Once again, Black Mamba was last at every call yet Rosario had to swing that horse out to the grandstand turning for home. Curious how NOBODY wants to comment on that move. If Smith had ridden Black Mamba......do we really have to guess what 20 people would have posted by now??

She got the trip to be expected, regardless of who rode her. If she drops back to last and saves ground.....if you want to believe that would have been the winning move its obvious nobody can change that opinion. You are certainly entitled to it, I just don\'t think it would have been that easy.

Jimbo, enjoyed the conversation.  We\'ll just have to disagree on this one. Respect your opinion.

PS: Liked seeing my name in the subject heading. I guess someone pays attention to me.

PPS:  NO Jerry.  I don\'t have CTC syndrome.
Title: Re: Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub
Post by: richiebee on June 01, 2009, 03:33:00 AM
P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 
>
> Apparently to win a race,  all you have to do is
> hire Borel and watch him magically ride the rail
> to victory.  The post doesn\'t matter,  nor does it
> matter how many horses may be in the way of
> getting to the rail.  Yep, that Borel guy will
> save ground and win..every time.
 
 
> I sincerely hope that Borel tries to come up the
> rail sometime soon and gets trapped,  so I don\'t
> have to read anymore nonsense about how this guy
> always saves ground and wins. You may get tired of
> me defending Smith,  but its double for me reading
> how if only Calvin had ridden \"fill in the blank\"
> he/she would have won.  
>
> Borel is an excellent rider, and I\'m not saying he
> can\'t ride.  Far from it, dude is fearless and I
> have no problem having my money on him. But enough
> already.


I am way tired of Borel, the celebratory gestures at the 1/8th pole, the post race crying jags, etc.

Has anyone ever gotten this much mileage out of being an illiterate?

In my mind currently the most overrated rider in Racing.

I will give the guy credit for his accomplishments, but in my opinion there are
3 riders laboring in relative obscurity (meaning they haven\'t been high profile
in Triple Crown races) who are much more talented than Bo-rail: (in no
particular order Leparoux, Bejarano, Dominquez).
Title: Re: Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub
Post by: spa on June 01, 2009, 07:16:42 AM
P-Dub,I\'ll be at the MGM,in my suite,for the race. I\'m betting 2k on Calvin,if you want,you can book it..........The problem with the ride has been answered already.
Title: Re: Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub
Post by: jack72906 on June 01, 2009, 07:20:01 AM
I watched the race again this morning and I also find it tough to criticize the ride on LC.

If he had enough horse at the 1/8 pole he would have been able to split and win the race. The combo of distance limitation and bad post sealed the deal IMO. It was his ride on Polish Quest in the 6th that had me pulling my hair out.
Title: Re: Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub
Post by: richiebee on June 01, 2009, 07:34:02 AM
The winner of this race is not getting enough credit.

In her first 55 weeks of racing in the US, she has won graded stakes on all 3
major California turf courses, two of such wins Grade 1s.
Title: Re: Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub
Post by: Lost Cause on June 01, 2009, 10:23:19 AM
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >

> in Triple Crown races) who are much more talented
> than Bo-rail: (in no
> particular order Leparoux, Bejarano, Dominquez).

I don\'t want the same kind of hate postings P-Dub gets but..
I feel Dominguez is way overrated.  Top notch against second tier jocks once he has the best horse but that\'s about it..
Title: Re: Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub
Post by: HP on June 01, 2009, 11:23:48 AM
Dominguez is great on grass...otherwise...on dirt he\'s no Mike Smith!  

Bejerano is very good.

Leparoux is hit or miss.

You know who I\'ve noticed \"toiling in relative obscurity\" who really deserves better?  Jose Lezcano.  Guy is a fantastic turf jock and someday I hope he will get his chance on the big stage.  

HP
Title: Re: Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub
Post by: P-Dub on June 01, 2009, 01:00:53 PM
spa Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub,I\'ll be at the MGM,in my suite,for the race.
> I\'m betting 2k on Calvin,if you want,you can book
> it..........The problem with the ride has been
> answered already.


Wow. A suite at the MGM.  I\'m impressed. Glad you let us all know that you are such a balla.  Because I\'m sure nobody else around here has the means to do that.

Most people use TG to find horses undervalued, find horses that are hidden from the public.  Glad you use it to pound overbet horses going off at low odds.

You don\'t bet the horse at 50-1, but pound him at around 2 or 3-1. Excellent.

I guess you haven\'t noticed that most people who commented didn\'t think the ride was bad, except for you and a couple others. I guess you skipped those. Probably on the phone closing the deal on your \"suite\" weekend.

I\'m done with this. The Smith bashing lives on.

BTW, you never answered the question of what he did wrong. Not surprised.
Title: Re: Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub
Post by: HP on June 01, 2009, 01:39:05 PM
\"You don\'t bet the horse at 50-1, but pound him at around 2 or 3-1. Excellent.\"

Good stuff here P-Dub.  When I was a stock trader and saw a situation like this we would say - \"you missed the wedding but you\'re doubling down for the funeral!\"  

The idea that this comes down to Smith v. Borel is, as Mike Tyson would say, with a slight lisp, LUDICROUS.  

HP
Title: Re: Lemon Chiffon running back - PDub
Post by: Lost Cause on June 01, 2009, 02:35:27 PM
HP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Dominguez is great on grass...otherwise...on dirt
> he\'s no Mike Smith!  
>
> Bejerano is very good.
>
> Leparoux is hit or miss.
>
> You know who I\'ve noticed \"toiling in relative
> obscurity\" who really deserves better?  Jose
> Lezcano.  Guy is a fantastic turf jock and someday
> I hope he will get his chance on the big stage.  
>
> HP

Lezcano is definitely very good.  He has only now started riding at the bigger tracks and showing what he can do..It\'s only a matter of time that people start noticing him more.

My personal list of overrated jockeys:

Ramon Dominguez
Shaun Bridgmohan
Joe Bravo
Russell Baze