we interrupt this regularly scheduled discussion of chicken trainers and drug abuses to make everyone aware that there\'s a really important race coming up in 10 days (I am in Milan right now for work where it\'s already Thursday so I am cheating)
Let\'s try to start figuring out who\'s going to run their race next Sat.
I think when everyone sees Charitable Man\'s sheet, we are all pretty much going to agree that he\'s the one to beat and I have a big time bias wanting him to win so I won\'t go on too much about why he\'s the one to beat for fear of letting my emotions get in the way of analysis but:
1) he\'s really fast
2) he\'s got an excellent 2 year old foundation
3) he blew through his 2 year old top last out which is a great sign of health
4) he\'s bred to get the distance being by the son of a Belmont winner
5) he loves the track already being 2 for 2 over the big Sandy
6) he doesn\'t have to ship
is that enough? we aren\'t going to get any kind of price on him as what I am saying will be pretty obvious to anyone who looks at the pp\'s so the big question is who else might run their race to include in the vertical exotics. Note credit to Jimbo who I conferred with on Charitable Man for separate reasons, Jimbo, I don\'t want to steal all of the credit here.
let\'s start with who won\'t run their race
I am assuming that Rachael is out as that\'s the body language that Jackson is sending off
in my mind, that leaves Mine that Bird, Dunkirk and Chocolate Candy as horses that will take alot of money in the exotics and I don\'t like any of them.
Mine that Bird is up against what every other 3 year old who runs in all three triple crown races has to deal with, 3 races in 5 weeks and he\'s a classic 0,2,x pattern on the sheets (as RA would be as well obviously) While many will argue that the extra distance will allow him to get there, as MJ accurately pointed out last week, the further they go, the less kick they have (they being the deep closer). He\'s a toss for me
For Choc Candy, we have the 2nd time off the synthetic bounce as a reason to toss him (see Pioneer of the Nile) and he\'s not that fast anyway. He was the wise guy horse (along with Friesan Fire) for the Derby so he will certainly take alot of money, especially given that he shipped to Belmont right away and was \"pointed for this race\"
For Dunkirk, I just don\'t think he wants to go that far and, with Friesan Fire being the latest in a long line of examples, when they bounce hard, they don\'t usually come back all the way to the top right away. He could be great later on if he stays together (always a risk with the Unbridled Song\'s of course) but I don\'t think he will be on the board in the Belmont.
I know that leaves us with a bunch of nags picking up the pieces but hey, the Belmont winner 2 out of the last 3 years was eligible for nx2\'s so a nag hitting the board isn\'t at all unusual in this race.
I am thinking a Charitable Man/nags/nags triple and super part wheel.
Thoughts?
I have to believe I could find something better to do in Milan at night.
lol
trust me, this is like the night after the Derby for me, lots of ideas running through my head, much better off staying parked in my room doing video conferences with my wife and kids on ichat in between postings.
I was kind of thinking, \" a Charitable Man/nags/nags triple and super part wheel.\" was one of the most interesting betting plans I\'ve seen
Sight,
It\'s Jimbo\'s job on this board to criticize my wagering strategies, you are honing in on his turf :)
seriously though, when these ridiculous bombs hit the board, there\'s no way to cap it.
I hated the top 7 choices in the derby which was right but I tore up every ticket because something that was not analyzeable (sp?) happened. Same with tossing big brown last year.
It will be the ones that aren\'t trying to win the race that wind up saving energy early and passing those that did try to win the race that will hit the board and there\'s really no way to predict which of the nags will take that stance ahead of time so I think taking the nags and tossing the horses who will try to win but that I don\'t think will run their race.
Should only be 4 or 5 of them so Jimbo can\'t yell at me too much for playing 20 combos in the triple, or maybe he will?
Cov,
Unfortunately, just about everyone in NY likes CM and Dunkirk and kinda dislikes MTB.Kiaran telling anyone who will listen how well CM is doing as of today.Think you\'re gonna need a slow rat in the number to get a decent payoff.
Mike
I think calling a nag, a nag, is far better than, \"I know he\'s never run a TG less than 15, but if his grandsirs allowance win ability comes through the ped, and the trainer wears his lucky tie, there\'s a chance he\'ll spice up the exotics\".
Covelj/Jim,
You are heading in the right direction with a Charitable Man/nag/nag trifecta. Whether it hits or not, you are light years ahead of your last two bets on this board. (the five favorites with Rachel in the doubles and the \"sealing up the race\" by playing both Zenyatta and Life is Sweet. At least you actually have a chance to win money by playing the CM/Nag/Nag triple.
Unfortunately for me, I see two other horses that you are throwing out, running well. Dunkirk paired up 0\'s heading into the Derby and then threw up a clunker. Pletcher backed off of him, now gives him 5 weeks to the Belmont. Why won\'t he run back to his zero? He still only has a few races under his belt and has much more upside than several of the others in here.
Chocolate Candy is a trickier read for me. My theory heading into the Derby was that POTN would not move up on dirt, based on his breeding and that Chocolate Candy would move up on dirt, based on his breeding. Then, I was overly impressed by POTN\'s race in the Derby and decided I was wrong and he was a solid play in the Preakness. Well, we all know how that worked out. The key thing I overlooked was that the Derby was a wet track. POTN ran well over it, the same way he trained over it two weeks before the derby. Chocolate Candy trained poorly over the wet track, then his workouts sharpened the week before the derby when the track got dry. He didn\'t run that well in the Derby, but assuming he gets a dry track in the Belmont, I am looking for the forward move ala Papa Clem,first time dry track in the Arkansas Derby.
I think the race is a simple triple key of Charitable Man over Chocolate Candy and Dunkirk. I like the same bet if Rachel runs, but I will get 5 times the payoff if she runs.
Mike,
The win pool will have Mine that Bird a solid favorite if Rachel doesn\'t run, no matter what Kiaran says. Don\'t forget there is a ton of tourist money in the win pool for these triple crown events. Nobody will be more than 30-1 no matter how bad they look. Without Rachel, I expect to get a fair 3-1 on CM. With Rachel, a whole different ballgame and suddenly there is a ton of value.
Good analysis as always, with a question.
I was thinking that Summer Bird may be the horse to add the kick to the exotics.
His last two races are faster than anything Chocolate Candy has ever run and he gets the same 5 weeks that Dunkirk and Chocolate Candy get.
Deep closers don\'t generally win the Belmont, but if he runs back to his top or runs his Derby number again, he is logical contender to finish 2nd or 3rd. He seemed to be one of the few still running at the end of the Kentucky Derby. He closed 4 1/2 lengths on CC in the stretch and missed him by a head, running past him on the gallup out. I don\'t see much to seperate the two horses.
He also gets a positive jockey switch to Talamo, although Prado has been working him. EDIT *Kent D. gets the call*
And unlike Chocolate Candy, I don\'t have to guess how he will handle a fast dirt track based on works because of his Arkansas Derby. This at potentially 2-3 times the odds.
Would be interested in your thoughts on the \"other\" bird.
covelj70 -
Not to pick on you, but I keep seeing references to 0-2-X like it\'s from the TG bible. Yet I haven\'t seen any data that suggests that a Top-Off pattern is particularly likely to lead to an X. The ThoroPattern on Mine That Bird\'s sheet included in the Preakness card results says his pattern (Top-Top-Off) produces an X 30% of the time. Rachel\'s pattern (Pair-Top-Off) yields an X only 25% of the time. According to the stats that are included in the ROTW every week (admittedly a bit dated), the overall frequency of X\'s is 37%.
I understand that the probability of an X has to be evaluated in the context of the odds on a runner, but Mine That Bird shouldn\'t be that short on Belmont Day.
I also understand the theory that big figures hurt and that an off race may indicate that a big effort has started to take a toll, but that theory seems to me to apply more to Rachel than to Mine That Bird. MTB has never gotten to the magic negative 1 threshold.
Now that I\'ve got that out of my system, I want to add how much I\'ve enjoyed the posts from you and Jimbo this spring. Best of luck with your wagers.
I think Flying Private wants 1 1/2. Lucas has dominated this race in the past and this horse IMO gives him a shot. I hope Rachel runs, because I think she might be toast.
Chocolate Candy did work quick on fast dirt at Churchill.
Still,he might just be a horse in need of a break.He\'s been at it since last July.He shows some five and six week gaps in his racing,but he\'s been in training straight thru.Finished slow in all of the Belmont works if you look at the splits.Will be trying to beat him off the board.
Miner\'s Escape might be your underneath slow rat that fits the pace/distance situation.He can grind around on these slower fractions sitting close.Mineshaft out of a Broad Brush mare should keep going.Don\'t like the other Zito on breeding(Lion Heart/Copelan) and that one figures to be the shorter price.
Bit,
thanks alot
I think you hit on it when you highlighted the big efforts part of the post.
When they react a little the first time after a big number, if they come back quick again, they react alot the next time more often than not.
The thoro pattern is helpful but must be viewed in context and I don\'t really use it in my capping.
great luck, should be a fun week leading up to the race.
So there you have it covelj.
We just gave you your 3 Nags! ;)
Jimbo,
How come I am the one that cashed on the preakness and you are the one doing all of the criticizing :)
obviously just joking...good thoughts on Choc Candy about the wet vs fast track. I know that Jerry H. likes him alot.
I don\'t care for Dunkirk at all as I don\'t think he wants any part of 1 1/2 miles but I have been wrong before.
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t care for Dunkirk at all as I don\'t think
> he wants any part of 1 1/2 miles but I have been
> wrong before.
I don\'t think Dunkirk wants any part of top class company- he\'s a temperamental \'wussy\' sort, imo. Another Pletcher \'phenom\'he reminds me of, is the much-ballyhooed Bandini, whom I also \'hated\'. I too have been wrong before.
Monmouth Guy,
I have not seen Summer Bird\'s sheet. But I do know a pretty good handicapper who has seen the sheet and thinks he is live. At 2 to 3 times the price of Chocolate Candy, you are right, he is the better price play.
I am still struggling with converting the synthetic figures to dirt figures and making \"adjustments\" in my head. We have discussed the compression of those figures before. Does that mean that Chocolate Candy is faster on dirt than his synthetic figures suggest? Maybe, maybe not. But if Rachel skips the race, the value proposition of using Charitable Man over Dunkirk and Chocolate Candy is not too hot, so I will need a \"summer bird\" type longshot in there. I have to see his sheet next Wednesday when TGJB puts up the sheets. But everything you say makes sense.
Covelj/Jim,
You are right, you certainly cashed on the Preakness. And I will tell you what, based on some of your bets, I make you a 1-5 favorite to cash a higher percentage of tickets than I do. Without a doubt!! My guess is though, that as you use TG figures for longer, you will change/adapt your betting style. Using premium data to ferret out 3-5 and 2-1 type plays is not a good value proposition. I will plagiarize Julian from one of the Saratoga Thorograph seminars a couple years back. He says \"I am not smart enough to play favorites. I need a MUCH bigger margin of error, because I am wrong too often, in a tough tough game\". Now, Julian is probably an extreme as he won\'t get out of his chair for less than 30-1, but you get the drift.
I think a lot of folks are coming to judgment too soon on Dunkirk getting the distance. He ran into a TOP CLASS colt in Quality Road in that Florida Derby, one who would have dusted the Derby field IMO. He made a huge move on a somewhat speed favoring trip, then watched as Quality Road \"re-broke\" in the stretch. I don\'t think the 1 1/8 beat him that day. I think he ran into a faster horse. Unless Rachel runs, there are no Quality Roads in the Belmont. Nobody even remotely close IMO. Not sure what happened to Dunkirk in the Derby other than getting squeezed at the start, but he ran so bad I am inclinded to just call it an \"x\" and move on. I don\'t know how I can point to the Derby as a sign of his distance limitations. You can point to the Derby and say he is \"off form\" if you like, but I don\'t think it is a sign of distance limitations. Now he gets 5 weeks into the Belmont and for all Pletcher\'s failures in the Derby he did get a filly to beat Curlin in the Belmont off the same 5 weeks rest. And the Belmont is frankly a race that Curlin should have run well in, as it plays to the horses that can cruise and gallup at high speeds and then stay on. Dunkirk, with his paired \"0\'s\" has two figures in the range of Charitable Man\'s one figure top. Granted, I think Charitable Man can run a new top and Dunkirk is more likely to pair, but nonetheless it is hard to have a real strong opinion on CM and be negative on Dunkirk. Yes, Mine that Bird has two figures that contend as well, but is on his 3rd race in 5 weeks and I think his style is a negative for this Belmont. Barring Rachel running, this figures to be a controlled pace, with MTB sitting quite a bit back, making his run. I think CM controls that pace and spurts away at the top of the stretch, with Dunkirk being a bit more tactical than MTB and able to stay close enough to mount some kind of move.
Now, if Rachel runs, I might switch to Dunkirk on top, because Charitable Man will be the one to pressure Rachel and DUnkirk will get the better trip.
Not to mention what could be a great undercard on Belmont day, with an all stakes pick 6.
Char Man - looks strong. 3-1 off the dream trip last might be a bit of an underlay though.
Choc Candy - didn\'t figure to handle the wet-fast Derby surface. jump first dry dirt still possible. the numbers still say he\'s too slow however, so demand a decent price.
MTB - I\'ll play him to flatten out in his 3rd race in 5 weeks.
Dunk - has a few fast figures and better spacing from the two brutal Fla efforts. distance the concern.
SB - has a competitive figure, 5 weeks prep, and should get the distance.
RA - doubt she\'ll run.
Still have to see the sheets for the Zito and Lucas runners, but SB will be the likely key here at a price. Right on the fence with both Dunk and CC - think there\'s a decent chance one of the two will fire.
Correction. Ice will go with Kent Desormeaux instead of Talamo on Summer Bird.
The key thing in evaluating 0-2\'s, or any patterns, is how you view the top (0)-- whether it was progressive, or something that figures to have been a very big effort for the horse.
So, I land in London this afternoon.
First thing I ask the driver is if my hotel is near a betting shop. As luck would have it, the driver is a total degenerate who knows the exact location and hours of operation of every betting palor in London. He supposedly drives Frankie Detori around....so he says.
Anyway, I rush through my hotel check in and run down to Landbrokes and William Hill to see if they are giving action yet on the Belmont hoping to lock in some better odds than the 3-1 we will get on Charitable Man next Sat.
Much to my dismay, they won\'t post the odds until early next week so I am out of luck. After briefly contemplating taking 3-1 on a prop bet that Frankie Detori will win one of the english classics this year, I kept my wallet in my pants with the thought that Jimbo wouldn\'t approve of me taking such low odds on Flying Frankie :)
Gonna print out some TG Europe data in the hotel and see how this stuff works on this side of the pond
Cov, Stevie Wonder could find a betting shop in London. You should make it down to Goodwood if you have the chance (racing tomorrow and saturday). I hear it\'s a great racetrack.
MG:
I know you didn\'t ask for my thoughts, but I made a post about a \"bird on the wire\" where I posit the two Birdstone progeny in the super. Nice to see you on Summer Bird, too, though I will start to worry if too many agree...
Bill
Probably gonna play both Charitable Man and Summer Bird to pair or better.CM with a huge tactical edge.
MTB went from 50-1 to 6-1 and now probably even money in his 3rd race in 35 days.He doesn\'t have to like the surface or the added distance.Certainly the pace won\'t be to his advantage.Hoping he backs up at least a couple of points on Saturday.
Dunkirk could fire,probably can\'t be tossed despite his low odds.
Interested to see Miner\'s Escape sheet.Zito has to be respected at this trip.Too many of his slow rats have board crashed in this race before.Thinking he can be played to improve a couple points-bred on top to get the trip.Don\'t like his other horse on distance.Sounds like Nowhere to Hide will pass.
Da Tara and Andromedas Hero moved up in the Belmont off slower pairs.Birdstone jumped 3 pts off an ugly pattern.Ap Valentine moved up up a couple into the exacta.
what are the odds going to be on summer bird anybody care to guess(bodog has futures up for the race)