Lets hope it stays on the turf. 11 horses, hopefully we can make some noise.
Attached are the sheets for HANA race of the week. Good luck.
Thanks.
Incidentally, good article on HANA by Pricci today:
http://www.horseraceinsider.com/blog.php/on-the-line
Thanks from all of us in the Pool Party.
I am a newbie to TG, and have a question about the Thoro-Pattern which is unclear in the documentation.
For example, the rail horse Darby Lee in this race has this line:
THORO-PATTERN
Turf 5 and up Mar-Jul: Prev Top 10^2, Pair-Off-Off (10^3, 14, 13)
Sts Top% Pair% Off% X%
248 **4 ****34 ****45 **17
Are the percentages listed at the end of the line (4 34 45 17) relative to
the Prev Top of 10^2 (which the documentation does seem to possibly indicate), or relative to the last race of 13?
That is, does the pattern indicate a 34% chance of pairing 13, or 10^2?
A 4% chance of a new Top beyond 13, or 10^2?
It can\'t be that the percentages are relative to 2 different races can it?
(e.g. Top% of 4 relative to 10^2, Pair% of 34 relative to 13)
The problem I am having is that it seems to make more sense that way the way the data look.
For example, if the percentages are all relative to 10^2 as the documentation suggests, then there seems to be a 34% probability of this horse pairing 10^2 according to the pattern; while its last 2 races were 14 and 13 - so that would require a 1^2 to 3^2 point jump...... is that what this pattern really indicates?
On the other hand, if they are relative to the last race 13, a probability of topping this number of only 4% does not seem plausible.
Tom
All percentages are relative to the effective top, in this case 10.
HOWEVER-- in what I wrote to go with the Thoro-Patterns I tried to make clear that the data is generic in nature, and has to be looked at in context of distance/surface changes, layoffs, trainer changes, etc. In this case, the filly has been running on dirt recently. The Thoro-Pattern shown is for horses who have been racing on turf (we split them because the patterns are much different, turf horses run figures in a much tighter range). We do that because today\'s race is on turf.
The Thoro-Pattern is just a general guide, and again, should be viewed in context. And in many cases not viewed because of context.
OK, thank you for the clarification.
Yes, I understood about the caveat - for example, for horses in this race which have been racing exclusively on dirt, these patterns don\'t apply.
I can see that trying to code the software to do it so they all do apply would be a nightmare, probably.
Tom
I am still confused about something.
For example, for Mushka in the Sheepshead Bay at Bel tomorrow:
THORO-PATTERN
Turf 4yo Mar-Jul: Prev Top 4^2, Top-Off-Pair (2^3, 5^2, 2^3)
Sts Top% Pair% Off% X%
75 ***17 ****43 ***31 ****9
(^ denotes superscript)
The pattern is Top-Off-Pair.
Yet the third race in the pattern, 2^3, is a Pair to the 1st race in the pattern, 2^3, not the Prev Top of 4^2, correct?
Why are you using it relative to the 1st race in the pattern here, and not the Prev Top, as you say you do for the percentages?
Tom
When a horse runs a new top that becomes the top for the Thoro-Patterns as well. In other words, this mare is 43% to run 2 3/4, plus or minus a point.