Now that the Derby future pool is closed, which horses do you all think provided the best value?
Here are my top 3 values:
Man Among Men - He has a nice line is fast enough and has great Derby breeding. He reminds me a lot of Aptitude a few years back. 29-1 seems very generous.
Domestic Dispute has still stayed under the radar a bit. He has a nice line and running style and his Trainer certainly knows how to win this race. He reminds me a lot of Real Quiet and thanks to bigger names in his stable he stayed at 19-1 in the future pool. Not as good as Man Among Men but still some value there.
Senior Swinger. This is my longshot pick at 43-1. He has only 2 starts on a mdn win at Haw and the other an alw win at GP but his figs are fast and he has the look of a Derby horse and not much hype yet. A bit of a stretch and we will know more when he runs against top horses next time out.
All 3 of these were not in action this weekend, which I think definitely helped their price in the future pool.
Let\'s hear some other opinions.
It\'s still a long way to the Derby but these sorts of discussions are half the fun for us racing fans.
Chris
I made my first derby future play since they created this money hole. Man Among Men was the horse I thought offered the most value. I also made smaller wagers on Empire Maker (frankel factor only) and on Saintly Look after the Risen Star. I liked his line, breeding, trainer, and I\'m willing (hoping) to excuse the effort today on a clunker. He\'ll still have time to recover from this effort and this may work out for him in the short term as stewart may pass the la. derby for something a few weeks later. At 60+ -1 it was worth a shot.
Michael
So you guys were the ones who killed my price on Man Among Men.
That one and Chris\' other two were my plays, with smaller bets on Funny Cide and Offlee Wild (haven\'t done the day yet, but I\'m guessing the wide trip got him a buried pair-up).
We took a run at buying both SS and MAM, to no avail (didn\'t find out minority interest in MAM could be bought until it was too late).
Lots of live ones this year-- it will be tougher for a field horse to win.
Chris, can\'t argue with any of your logic. DD was the only bet I actually placed, mostly on Baffert\'s history.
I will have to disagree on Saintly Look, he reminds me a lot of EasyFromTheGetGo last year. Great line moving into Feb, but went nowhere from there. I\'m fully on board with the logic around not going faster than 6 as a 2 yr old, but I think you MUST have went faster than 6 by the end of Feb if memory serves. Unless Badge ran a negative number, I don\'t think SL moved forward off his previous 6s.
From memory, the only time a backward move has actaully turned into something profitable on derby day was TGulch, Monarchos, and Invisible Ink(who got robbed by not having his objection upheld, OK that was a joke). They all had backward moves off a number 3 or lower. If you are going backward off a 6, it doesn\'t look good.
The best value question did not generate much interest although it was comforting to hear the TGJB played the same 3 horses as I did in the first Derby future pool. I just wish we had had such similar opinions on last year\'s Derby. I needed at least a second place finish out of Perfect Drift...
Maybe this next question will stimulate more interest and opinions.
Which horses are you most concerned about winning that did not offer any value in the first pool? My top 3 are:
Empire Maker - The hype made him unplayable but I can see the reason for it. Frankel, Bailey, Juddmonte, Unbridled, and the best broodmare on the planet all in one package. Not to mention that he is fast and his line looks very explosive. He looks a lot like Fusaichi Pegasus and a Derby win would certainly not be a shock.
Badge Of Silver - I am guessing he ran a negative fig in his last and his first 3 have been about as impressive as can be. His breeding is not that bad and he may be a genuine freak ala Spend A Buck or Seattle Slew. However, I still have a hard time believing that a horse that wins for fun in April of its 2 year old year and is then on the shelf until 3 is going to end up winnning the Derby. I will be betting against this guy from here on out and I may end up tearing up a lot of tickets in the process.
Minister\'s Wildcat - Trained by Niel Drysdale and a half-brother to War Chant. In fact, looks like a War Chant clone to this point. Also has a potentially explosive line. Not quite as scary as the first two but a legitimate threat to win the roses.
Consolation prize: Field - The winner may come from there but I just don\'t understand the allure of 2-1 odds.
Any other opinions?
Chris
Chris:
How about Toccet? I don\'t think that horse will even make it to the starting gate. Incidentally, owner Dan Borislow was the whale that drove him down to 9-1 from 22-1 in the final few minutes according to the ticket writers at the kennel club.
my KD futures betting career ended after I made a large bet on Street Cry a few years ago, but here is what I think of the board:
1. A T - no
2. Atswhatimtalkinabout - AP Indy horse is one of my top contenders, but 28-1 a bit low off just one maiden win.
3. Badge of Silver - the real deal. Ronny Werner really cranks them up..... I just think this one is peaking too early. 11-1 too low for me.
4. Domestic Dispute - very nice pedigree. 19-1 sounds fair.
5. Empire Maker - nice horse.... 12-1 doesn\'t cover the risk however.
6. Funny Cide - just took a look at his pedigree, and even though Distorted Humor was a sprinter, he gets some stamina from his female family. 93-1 not a bad stab, not for me though.
7. Indy Dancer - one of my early top contenders... looked awful on Sunday. I have not given up on him yet, but 18-1 just too low.
8. Kafwain - pedigree questionable, but this long striding colt will be tough. too many question marks to justify 12-1 though.
9. Lion Tamer - Pletcher calls him one of his best ever. I wouldn\'t be surprised if this one sets a track record or two before he is done. the 13.5 final eighth on Saturday, however, didn\'t give me a lot of confidence that this one wants to go ten furlongs. looks a lot like Tabor\'s Matty G horse from last year..... 20-1 too low.
10. Man Among Men - should run forever... looks like a top five candidate to me. 29-1 looks OK.
11. Ministers Wild Cat - one of my top early contenders. I didn\'t like the way he drifted in the stretch while coming home in 26 seconds up at GG, but I expect improvement. 24-1 is fair.
12. Offlee Wild - needs to show a lot more.
34-1 too short.
13. Ozzie Cat - 50-1 sounds fair... for the Ill Derby.
14. Peace Rules - nice turf horse... 66-1 too low on dirt.
15. Saintly Look - seems to have the pedigree to go far, but his last quarter was slow in the Lecomte, and he was horrible on Sunday. no thanks.
16. Seattle Hoofer - looks low on class. I think this one can improve, but 42-1 not enough.
17. Senor Swinger - plenty of question marks, but 43-1 is very tempting.
18. Siberland - for Cal bred fans only (but I think those fans are getting a great price at 115-1).
19. Sky Mesa - looks just like Harlan\'s Holiday to me. no thanks at 12-1.
20. Ten Cents - 34-1 a bit low... don\'t you think??
21. Toccet - Borislow pulls the old bad shins trick. OK, I give him credit for fooling the futures players, but 12-1 still too low for me.
22. Trust N Luck - very nice horse, but I think the competition down here in Florida has been on the weak side. Until he proves he can rate a bit, I will need more than 19-1.
23. Whywhywhy - whywhywhy? why is he on this list?
24. Field - the three year old class looks pretty tough at this stage, but a lot of things can happen between now and May. If the stars start to falter, we could see Storm Flag Flying and Hold That Tiger in the mix very quickly, and they are the two best three year olds. Composure looks fast enough, and may have Bailey if she runs. Colita looks OK. Godolphin and Tabor have another ten or so very well bred colts. 2.2-1 is awful short, but if I were to make a bet, I would use the field along with one or two others.
Judging by how close Ron Eubanks (agent of Jorge Chavez, rider of Toccet)had his face to one of the large monitors downstairs at Gulfstream while watching the replay of Kafwain run in the San Vicente, I would\'nt be so sure Catalin.
After seeing the race the first time around I kind of thought, what else is there to see, the way Kafwain blew the field away. Apparently Eubanks felt a lot more, because when the replay came on he moved so close to the monitor I thought his nose was going to touching the screen. He was also speaking to someone else the entire time the replay of the race was being run. I kind of thought to myself he sure seems to be an extremely interested observer. Maybe nothing. Who knows?
Silver:
You could be right, but keep in mind that Borislow isn\'t the most astute manger of his talent and typically runs them into the ground. Remember Talk Is Money? I think Scanlan is about the only one who\'ll train for him.
We\'ll see. I still think there are an awful lot of question marks, not the least of which is a rushed schedule just to make the Derby.
Catalin\'s comments on Toccett brings up the question of which of the pool entrants were the best plays against. In other words, they took a lot of money but you are not very worried about their winning the Derby.
Here are my top 4:
Toccett - 2 fast 2 early 2 often at 2. Also, being rushed after an injury. I think he is a great bet against. Looks like this year\'s version of AP Valentine or Anees or Favorite Trick or Lemon Drop Kid...
Sky Mesa - Similar to Toccett but not as many fast 2yo races and not as rushed after the injury and he has a better trainer. Still a good bet against.
Kafwain - He is fast and he has the right trainer but he was 2 fast 2 early 2 often at 2 and now he is 2 fast 2 early at 3. I am not as confident about betting against him as I am the other 2 but those fast races are bound to take their toll pretty soon. Also, his breeding is suspect for the Derby and cutting back to 7 furlongs in his last race after having run three races over 1 mile did not make much sense to me. Then again, I have not trained any Derby winners either...
Trust N Luck - He looks like a prototypical need-the-lead type that will fold when the pace gets hotter and the distances get longer. He also has run 2 fast 2 early. This year\'s version of Booklet. You have a few of these types that win some early TC preps every year.
Any other opinions similar or to the contrary?
Chris
P.S. Came across this interesting tidbit regarding Badge of Silver. May be old news to some of you. \"Badge Of Silver won his debut last April at Keeneland by nine lengths. But he came out of the race with a cracked cannon bone, which required a surgically implanted screw. The screw removed, he returned to competition in January, easily winning a sprint at Fair Grounds.\"
Chris,
I agree with you on most of your early Derby thoughts...... one thing on Trust N Luck though; I never liked Booklet\'s pedigree, and even though Trust N Luck has the same sire, his female family adds a lot more stamina than Booklet\'s does. Take a look at kentuckyderby.com, they have some good comments on TNL\'s breeding in the contenders section. I don\'t necessarily like him to win the Derby, but I think he has a lot more class than Booklet.
Thoughts out there on Indy Dancer? Can this horse be that bad? Or how good is Badge of Silver? I remember McPeek\'s Dehere filly (forget her name) put up some amazing #\'s at FG last spring going a mile and a sixteenth, yet I was sure she wasn\'t able to run a strong mile and a quarter. I kind of get that feeling about BOS, but I wouldn\'t be amazed if the horse went into the Derby undefeated (taking the Ill Derby path).
Trust N Luck and Booklet are NOT by the same sire or even sire line. Booklet is by Notebook, Trust N Luck by Montbrook. Notebook\'s sire was Well Decorated, a speed oriented son of Raja Baba, himself a son of mixed influence Bold Ruler. Montbrook is by Buckaroo, a son of Buckpasser (by stamina influence Tom Fool)out of a No Robbery mare. Additionally, Trust N Luck inherits stamina from his broodmare sire Dahar, a turf marathoner by Lyphard out of champion Vaguely Noble mare Dahlia, while Notebook inherits more speed from his broodmare\'s sire Bob\'s Dusty (a son of Bold Commander, again by Bold Ruler).
I think Trust N Luck looks a lot more like Spend A Buck, Holy Bull and War Emblem than he does Booklet. He might just be a freak.
Catalin wrote,
\"I think Trust N Luck looks a lot more like Spend A Buck, Holy Bull and War Emblem than he does Booklet. He might just be a freak.\"
You may very well be correct. The similarity with Spend A Buck is even more apparent to me (hell even the names are kind of similar-did you notice). Spend A Buck and Trust N Luck both had/have Calder based trainers who were/are very suspect and yet the horses were so good it really did\'nt matter. One final caveat Spend A Buck was piloted by Angel Cordero. Cornelio Velasquez the rider of Trust N Luck has a ways to go before he reminds me of Cordero.
P.S.-Spend A Buck ran third in the first BC juvenile behind Chiefs Crown (winner) and Tanks Prospect, then returned to win the Derby over Chiefs Crown who was the 6-5 favorite starting the dreaded BC juvenile jinx.
Baffert\'s DD is by far the best value; after
he wins his next start we won\'t be able to
sniff 3-1 on him! The hunch bet has got to
be Peace Rules, (War Emblem?) considering
the political climate.
Chris, it\'s Feb, anything less than 50-1 is an underlay in my opinion.
This horse is 11-1 in the future book. That might a decent price on him just making the race, much less winning.
Seems a little like Lils Lad to me. Only one short sprint win at two, giant win first out at three followed up by another big win first time two turns.
Lils Lad if you remember was \"shot\" by the time he reached Kentucky.
I see where Baffert is going to send Kafwain to Fair Grounds for the La. Derby off that negative two in the San Vicente. With he and Badge of Silver matching up something has got to give right.
Let me make a correction.His first start of the year was a sprint win by 17 lengths at Gulf.
I believe Lils Lad then squeezed in an allowance win around two turns before he ran in the FOY that year.
But the comparisons are still there for the most part.