Is it possible that the payouts at the end of the card were low (pik 4, pik 3) because of \"casual bettors\" ? favs, favs, females?
If so, great for the sport - hope they all come back next Saturday to windows!
I am relieved she did not get injured as I feared this would happen and kill the sport for many \"prospective\" fans. 5 races in 13 weeks? On the lead and holding them off? OK - she\'s my vote for everything of the year...
Hey Covel ( and Silver)...she campaigned at Oaklawn (couldn\'t resist). Wish\'d I\'d have had her on top...
TGJB needs a new data point: strides per 16th. That filly only took 3 strides for every 4 the other horses were taking.
Edit: racing is cool again
So they paid their bucks and ran the filly. And she won the race and beat the boys. And she lived to run another day. And Borel won BOTH big races, didn\'t he?
All you second guessers and experts questioning the decision making...and now advising them regarding the Belmont. Why not just shut up now.
nhorizon Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So they paid their bucks and ran the filly. And
> she won the race and beat the boys. And she lived
> to run another day. And Borel won BOTH big races,
> didn\'t he?
>
> All you second guessers and experts questioning
> the decision making...and now advising them
> regarding the Belmont. Why not just shut up now.
You must be kidding, right? You would run her - the 6th race in 19 wks - in the Belmont? Do you have $10 Million invested? Do you know how taxing this is for most horses, let alone a 3 YR old filly? Tell me the reasoning, because history says it would be embarrasing at the least, fatal at worst.
We don\'t want to shut up because we are looking out for the best interests of the filly. You heard Calvin in the post race interview he said \"she wasn\'t getting hold of the track\" She was getting hold of the track just fine, this is just an amazing athlete telling us that she needs a break. Let\'s give it to her so we have a great champion to enjoy come year end!
covelj70 Wrote:
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> We don\'t want to shut up because we are looking
> out for the best interests of the filly. You
> heard Calvin in the post race interview he said
> \"she wasn\'t getting hold of the track\" She was
> getting hold of the track just fine, this is just
> an amazing athlete telling us that she needs a
> break. Let\'s give it to her so we have a great
> champion to enjoy come year end!
well said. Gald you did well today!
This race today knocks her out for a couple months at least. What does she have to prove by coming back on 3 weeks and trying a mile and a half? She appears to be so gutsy and game that she\'ll leave everything on the race track. She\'ll compete so hard, the potential downside FAR outweighs the upside. Freshen her up, get her energy level at her normal high level, and then she can take on about anybody....except Zenyatta who will be waiting for her on the Pro Ride. lol Couple of salty fillies if that one comes to pass, it would be a shame if they weren\'t both at their best.
very very well said, couldn\'t agree more
Somebody should pass the contact information for the owner and trainer onto Covelj,Shanahan and Smalltimer. Obviously, you guys know what is best for the filly, much more so than the connections. Just like you know that Calvin was wrong about the filly not handling the track. After all, your TV vantage point of how she was handling it, was much better than him, riding her back for the 7th or 8th time.
Geez guys. I know you mean well, but this whole thread TAKES away from the filly and is blathering.
She ran like a champ. As some of you predicted. Good call. Give her kudos.
If she is still \"right\" in 3 weeks, ,the connections may run her. If not, they will rest her. Let them decide.
This string disgusting.
We have just seen one of the greatests days in racing history and its all about don\'t do this next
Pathetic
Jimbo,
I own alot of horses, some of whom I have control over (in terms of where they race), many of which I don\'t because I only own small pieces.
Trust me, When you are in the heat of the moment and you have spent all of the blood, sweat and tears to get a great filly like this, it\'s not as easy to decide to do the \"right thing\" as it is when you are an outsider like I am in this situation. The right thing is obvious here.
What did you want Borel to say, \"she\'s tired, I hope Steve doesn\'t run her in the Belmont\" He says that and he gets taken off the filly because he doesn\'t believe in her.
Please recognize that I am just offering my opinion on what is best for the filly. I have no other agenda, my intentions here are totally pure.
Silver,
It\'s exactly because we have just seen one of the greatest days in history that the next step is so important. We can\'t keep shooting ourselves in the foot as an industry. If the game was thriving, we could take time to enjoy the moment. We can\'t afford that luxury right now unfortunately.
Jimbo, appreciate the note without sarcasm, but in my estimation it\'s too taxing in the time frame. That in mind, what\'s your take? Am I too cautious?
Covelj,
I know you own horses. But the stuff you are going on about has nothing to do with ownership experience. You are joining the \"predicting quarter cracks and other natural disasters escapade\".
The filly running in the Belmont would be GREAT for racing. Not just good, but great. Imagine if we get lucky, and she is doing well enough to run, the Derby winner comes as well, and maybe Quality Road can make the race (I have no news on him, so not sure what his status is). You add to that Charitable Man, who probably ran a 0 and is the son of a belmont winner, trained by an top trainer and ridden by last year\'s Belmont winning jockey. Great races and great rivalries make the sport great.
Not running \"big tops\", predicting disasters, then putting horses away for 6 months or retiring.
Imagine watching the filly hook up with Quality Road on the front end, instead of a rank and \"off his game\" Big Drama.
Please stop predicting doom for sound horses.
I thought Jackson soured the whole story when he paid BIG bucks, switched trainers and said he was heading to the Preakness.
What an IDIOT he is.....
Where is Zayat this guy needs to be tar and feathered for trying to keep her out and running his PIG
Let\'s talk about where HE goes next
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Covelj,
>
> I know you own horses. But the stuff you are
> going on about has nothing to do with ownership
> experience. You are joining the \"predicting
> quarter cracks and other natural disasters
> escapade\".
>
> The filly running in the Belmont would be GREAT
> for racing. Not just good, but great. Imagine if
> we get lucky, and she is doing well enough to run,
> the Derby winner comes as well, and maybe Quality
> Road can make the race (I have no news on him, so
> not sure what his status is). You add to that
> Charitable Man, who probably ran a 0 and is the
> son of a belmont winner, trained by an top trainer
> and ridden by last year\'s Belmont winning jockey.
> Great races and great rivalries make the sport
> great.
>
> Not running \"big tops\", predicting disasters, then
> putting horses away for 6 months or retiring.
>
> Imagine watching the filly hook up with Quality
> Road on the front end, instead of a rank and \"off
> his game\" Big Drama.
>
> Please stop predicting doom for sound horses.
Jimbo - you are right, nice post. I think my gut is listening to my heart and also being too cautious about the stress factor - but I get that from TG. I hope to hell she could win, but man...this might be the toughest - or courageous - decison of any owner in our lifetime.
Silver - ever been wrong?
Shanahan,
I really don\'t know. I don\'t have a firm belief. I am a gambler and fan, in that order. I hope that top quality connections make the right decision for the filly. I would hope and assume that if she is not 100%, they back off with her. But I can tell you that by watching Jackson on TV talk and listening to the words he chose, he thinks he has something very special with her and he won\'t duck any challengers, if she is healthy.
which is what we should all want.
I post on this board, and I use the TG product, because I believe Jerry makes the best figures out there. So as a customer, i am happy. But when I read TGJB talk about watching this race \"cringing\", hoping she doesn\'t break down and then I read all the posts after her great win about people wanting her to take 3 months off, I can\'t help but think that this kind of talking and postulating is part of the problem and not the solution. But that is just one opinion. The opinion of somebody who thought today\'s betting strategy was to leave the filly and the Derby Winner off of their tickets.......
I want her to run in the Belmont so I can bet against her, but I can\'t imagine anyone with a head on their shoulders thinking that it is the right thing for this Filly.
Jimbo,
Maybe I am just overly conservative by nature so I truly apologize if any of this is coming off the wrong way but this is just what I really believe.
Just to show that I put my money where my mouth is, I just brought a filly over from Europe that cost me alot of money. We had a specific race picked out for her when we bought her but the timeframe was tight to make the race we had picked out.
My trainer called me last Saturday and told me he could breeze her if I wanted but that she had a bit of a foot bruise from going from galloping the first few days we brought her over over the soft turf in Ireland compared to the harder poly track at Santa Anita. He said he had changed her shoes because he thought the angle of the shoes was part of the problem and that it wouldn\'t hurt her at all to breeze her but that it would probably be safer to wait but if we didn\'t breeze her, we were going to miss the race we had picked out. I told him it wasn\'t even a question, wait. I asked him when he wanted to breeze her and then I told him to wait 2 extra days from the time he suggested and breeze her then.
Again, I don\'t have all the answers by any stretch, I just try to do (and suggest) what is right by the horses(s) both that I own and care about as a fan.
Covelj and Shanahan,
I know you both have the best intentions of the filly at heart. So, I apologize for the sarcasm. I just think that seeing our stars run is best for the sport (assuming they are healthy). And just not a believer in JB\'s \"run fast/go sour\" theory. I think they go sour when they are off form. All horses, even great ones, go off form at some point.
I am guessing we don\'t see her in the Belmont too. Only because she bore out late, showing that she was tiring pretty good. Asmussen will probably have to be really sure she is doing well to run her. But she does get 3 weeks this time. Who knows.
I think the point that Jim correctly makes here is that the people with the expertise should make the call as to whether or not RA needs a rest.No one on this board is close to being qualified to determine RA\'s energy level right now.
Do you think for a minute that if RA is laying down tomorrow and off her feed that Asmussen/Jackson are going to the Belmont?
Mike
With all respect to the filly,I\'m at least as impressed with Mine That Birds huge effort.
I had chalked up his Derby to the slop and the bias, but this was a tremendous effort today. With a better trip he\'d have gotten up.
For such a little guy, a big run.
She drifted out right before the wire when Borel had put away the whip, turned to his right and gave MTB and Smith \"the finger\" - I wouldn\'t necessarily assume that meant the horse was spent, could have just as easily been the horse assuming the jock wanted her to go that direction by his change in balance.
On the other hand he was getting into her through the stretch until that point, unlike her other races where she did it on her own without pressure - and she took it out faster to boot. No questions about whether that visually represented an effort or not.
If she could hold enough form to win in three weeks how close would it compare to bagging the Triple Crown? That perception adds to the equation of whether to press on or not, similar (but not the same) as a colt winning Derby and Preakness.
Form notwithstanding, her running style should appreciate Belmont.
Agreed!
My two keys were Rachel and MTB. I saw them as the only predictible components. I got the tri three times, but would\'ve had the super if MTB is third or fourth.
The first three people I talked to who saw the race said MTB is sure to be Belmont fave after seeing that close.
Two quick observations:
1) Not enough praise has been given for Mine That Bird\'s great effort--closing from dead last at Pimlico on a dry track was impressive feat and validates his Derby IMO. If Calvin rode him yesterday, we\'d be talking about a horse with a legit chance to sweep the Triple Crown.
2) Jess Jackson--a few weeks back, someone posted on here that Jackson was rumored to be ill. In all honesty, based on his physical appearance on TV yesterday, he does not look the same as he did just 4 months ago on the Eclipse Awards. I was one who raised the issue of motive in purchasing RA and running her back so soon. I sincerely hope Mr. J and the filly remain well and are both \"running\" come BC time.
chrifron Wrote:
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> Two quick observations:
>
> 1) Not enough praise has been given for Mine
> That Bird\'s great effort--closing from dead last
> at Pimlico on a dry track was impressive feat and
> validates his Derby IMO. If Calvin rode him
> yesterday, we\'d be talking about a horse with a
> legit chance to sweep the Triple Crown.
>
>
Agree that MTB ran a great race and more should be made of it.
Its no secret that once, maybe twice, I\'ve defended Mike Smith. OK, maybe 50 times.
But you\'ve got to be kidding if you think MTB would have won with Borel in the irons. Perhaps if he jumped the rail and landed on the turf course, he could have saved enough ground to win.
Look at the race again and tell me at which point any jockey could have saved enough ground to win on MTB?? The 1-3 paths were taken. He actually tried to go inside horses but realized there wasn\'t any room. Had to go around, cut inside of the only horse he could turning for home, and made a nice run down the stretch.
I\'m not going to get into yet another discussion of how Smith rides, but lets not start with the ridiculous notion MTB wins with Borel. Smith gave him a good ride, he was second best. Leave it alone.
No need to get angry, P-Dub.....
I will clarify--in saying that MTB would have won with Borel, I\'m thinking he wouldn\'t have been riding RA. Smith rode fine-there was no inside path in the stretch, and he saved ground throughout.
Imagine for a minute that RA had never been sold--there still would have been an exciting buildup to the Preakness, and certainly a better race for betting (Hull and others?).
If MTB wins, we are looking at...... A unheralded $9500 gelding going where no horse has in 30 years....that could have been a great narrative for Racing.
chrifron Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> No need to get angry, P-Dub.....
>
> I will clarify--in saying that MTB would have won
> with Borel, I\'m thinking he wouldn\'t have been
> riding RA. Smith rode fine-there was no inside
> path in the stretch, and he saved ground
> throughout.
>
> Imagine for a minute that RA had never been
> sold--there still would have been an exciting
> buildup to the Preakness, and certainly a better
> race for betting (Hull and others?).
>
> If MTB wins, we are looking at...... A unheralded
> $9500 gelding going where no horse has in 30
> years....that could have been a great narrative
> for Racing.
If my tone was angry, that wasn\'t the intent. Hope you weren\'t offended.
It was exasperation with this whole Borel thing.
He gave a great ride in the Derby, did it with Street Sense too. He\'s a fine rider. But you would think he\'s the second coming of Arcaro or Shoemaker with all of the talk around here.
Lost in all the RA hoopla (well deserved, I might add), is the tremendous race MTB ran. Hard not to root for him in future races.
slewzapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> She drifted out right before the wire when Borel
> had put away the whip, turned to his right and
> gave MTB and Smith \"the finger\" - I wouldn\'t
> necessarily assume that meant the horse was spent,
> could have just as easily been the horse assuming
> the jock wanted her to go that direction by his
> change in balance.
Borel said when he hit her, she gave nothing. She was done.
sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
>
> Borel said when he hit her, she gave nothing. She
> was done.
Where did you see that?? I can\'t imagine Borel saying anything like that.
Not sure Calvin said she was \"done\", but in the (Donna Barton) on-track interview Calvin noted that he had never hit her before, and that when he gave her a couple of taps when they straightened out she did not respond with more. My take? She ran the front runners into the ground and got home on guts.
I watched the overhead and firmly believe that a clean trip wins it for MTB. Could Borel have done that? --We\'ll never know...
The rail opened one second after Smith moved, but you can\'t assume the horse would have been in the exact same place and time as under Smith\'s ride.
Calvin brought two Derby winners through bigger fields with clean trips. I watched the overhead replay and say good chance that length was easliy made up with a cleaner trip. I also believe that under CB it would have been either a photo or win for MTB.
I watched the overhead, too.
Lukas\' horse moved as MTB did and kept him wide. Forced him into a path where he had to check off of a decelerating POTN. The rail run wasn\'t there when it needed to be. If he waited later for it, he would have moved too late and had a good chance of eventually missing second. If Borel was on and did that, the comments would be he waited too long for his patented rail trip and it cost him. It happens to him often enough as well.
I watched the start. If BD had been scratched, or broke cleanly, or retained the shades, the filly doesn\'t get pushed on the front end in the 3-4 path all the way around and she wins by daylight.
I watched the overhead of the Derby. If the horses all don\'t bunch up toward the front end early, if they stayed inside on the second turn and through the stretch, Borel has no golden rail trip and doesn\'t win.
Do you honestly believe Borel gets trips like the Derby every time he drops to the tail of the field early?
It is what it is. Sometimes life is like a superhero comic book. Usually it\'s not.
MTB won the Derby by more than 6 lengths. Yes it was another great Borel ground saving ride. But if he was 3w both turns he still would have won by 2+ lengths.
Bailey on the rail in grass races:
\"when it opens,you\'re a hero, when it closes you\'re a bum\"
Amazing that Calvin Borel is now Arcaro,Shoemaker,Bailey,Angel all in one.Solid, ballsy rider but surely not the second coming.
Mike
All good points and well taken. Borel gets trapped often enough and had he been on the horse (that he knew better than Smith) he might have had to adapt to a different trip plan.
I realize that it all becomes hypothetical and you can\'t change selevtive aspects of the race. I am only speculating that Borel would have given the horse enough of a better chance to make it closer or make the difference. Since it\'s fun to talk about a big race, Borel rides MTB and then does RA get the good ride with a new jock less familiar with her?
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> MTB won the Derby by more than 6 lengths. Yes it
> was another great Borel ground saving ride. But if
> he was 3w both turns he still would have won by 2+
> lengths.
Noteworthy however, imo, you\'re assuming here that the track was as friendly in the 3W path as the rail was that Derby day. I don\'t think that was the case. I\'ve watched the race several times and those inside were on a \'paved highway\' compared to those off the rail running on \'beach sand\'. Just imo, I could be mistaken.
Leamas57 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I watched the overhead and firmly believe that a
> clean trip wins it for MTB. Could Borel have done
> that? --We\'ll never know...
Not again. I firmly believe that all of you that think Borel wins on MTB are nuts.
>
> The rail opened one second after Smith moved, but
> you can\'t assume the horse would have been in the
> exact same place and time as under Smith\'s ride.
No you can\'t. And you also can\'t assume that Borel would have been in the spot to go through an alleged openiong. If in fact there was one.
>
> Calvin brought two Derby winners through bigger
> fields with clean trips. I watched the overhead
> replay and say good chance that length was easliy
> made up with a cleaner trip. I also believe that
> under CB it would have been either a photo or win
> for MTB.
You probably believe Santa still comes down the chimney. You people are something else.
Borel scrapes the rail in America\'s biggest race, and all of a sudden he\'s super jockey. Able to leap 3 horses with a single bound. Able to navigate his way to the finish line first regardless of what stands in his way.
Geez, you would think the guy wins at a 75% clip with all of this talk. He gave MTB a great ride in the KD. We get it. We all do.
So,, for the rest of eternity, are we going to look at every 2nd place finisher and wonder......\"Gee, what if Borel had ridden the horse?? He would have made up x number of lengths/inches to win.\"
ENOUGH with the Calvin hyperbole machine.
The friggin horse would have finished second no matter what. He ran great, its a fantastic story.
Can you just leave it alone already??
I can leave it alone, and it is over and done, but talking about historic races is part of racing. If Ted Williams hadn\'t gone into the service, would he have hit 700 homers without an asterix? You would say who cares?
I think jockeys make as much as 4 lengths difference every day in racing because I win and lose as a result of their decisions. I believe there were two lengths potential differnce and that it\'s worth the discussion in the wake of such a story.
Santa Claus could have come down the chimney if he had gone to Jenny Craig and even Scrooge came to believe in the spirit of Christmas, getting over HIS humbug.
Dudley, the \"paved highway\" you refer to must have been less than one lane wide if MTB was the only one who could really benefit from it. I guess those horses MTB blew by that were fairly close to the \"highway\" you saw (and at least two of them would have been described as in the ONE path), they must have been on the \"shoulder\" of that very narrow paved road. Plus he did have to come out a bit (briefly) to the two path at one point in the stretch and it didn\'t put any dent in his momentum whatsoever.
I think MTB is simply the kind of small-ish agile horse who can skip over the mud and do well. I don\'t see how you could make this observation about a \"paved highway\" based on what you are seeing on TV... I don\'t think this accounts for the win. It was just a very good trip and he picked the right day to pop his top!
As for the others that think a better trip would\'ve gotten MTB the win...in my view...the Preakness was just the perfect race for RA. It was JUST the right distance for her...another hundred or so yards (the Derby distance) and she would have been third. Have to give Borel some credit for knowing his horse and how much gas she had in the tank. I think Smith did an okay job (not great) and I don\'t see how anyone else would have won that day. Whatever he would have gained by going inside he might have lost in not getting his horse a clear run (which he definitely had).
HP
note though that MTB never got by RA in the gallop out so I am not sure about the finishing 3rd in a longer race part.
Smith shut him down right on the wire. He lost by one length almost exactly and had lots of momentum. NBC sports has a number of cams you can watch.
Borel shut RA down right before the wire as well and MTB still didn\'t get passed. We will never know but I don\'t think we can say for sure that MTB would have gotten past. Maybe he would have but it\'s not a definite. Doesn\'t really matter anyway but always interesting to speculate.
Bigger point is that everyone will assume that with more distance, MTB would have won the race and, as MJ pointed out, the one move closers often don\'t close as well with added distance which will only add to the intrigue of the Belmont if they both run.
Seems to me Smith never finds an inside path. Someone said it opened one second too late. I don\'t believe Smith likes the rail anymore.
Really depends on the pace. It\'s like a rubberband. If the rubberband gets stretched enough (the pace is HOT), the horses in the back look like they came out of a slingshot. If the rubberband doesn\'t get pulled back enough...no good. In the Preakness there was pace to run at. If they go slow early in the Belmont they can run around twice and still chase a loose frontrunner.
I felt sure watching the race that if it was another 100 yards the two boys would have gone by - but I can\'t say 1,000%. To me it looked like she was saying \"Guys, I\'m just glad this is a mile AND THREE SIXTEENTHS!\" Of course this can be deceptive, but I thought I saw RA\'s lips move.
HP
\"I thought I saw her lips move\" this is awesome.
please remind me about your point on race shapes again right before the Belmont as I had a bit of an issue with that one last year and I am still licking my wounds.
HP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Dudley, the \"paved highway\" you refer to must have
> been less than one lane wide if MTB was the only
> one who could really benefit from it. I guess
> those horses MTB blew by that were fairly close to
> the \"highway\" you saw (and at least two of them
> would have been described as in the ONE path),
> they must have been on the \"shoulder\" of that very
> narrow paved road. Plus he did have to come out a
> bit (briefly) to the two path at one point in the
> stretch and it didn\'t put any dent in his momentum
> whatsoever.
HP- the shoulder more aptly describes it- and grant you that MTB\'s physical makeup attributed to his success. He picked the right time to jump up alright. And I believe Wolley when he discussed the change in tactics being key. Back to the earlier point- those other horses in the one path were not as near the rail as Calvin imo. And those that he passed down there were other \'easy tosses\' in my view. I was right about all those but one- a crucial one as it was. Your point about MTB\'s momentum is salient- that\'s why he was unaffected in his brief foray around one horse. But look at how easily \"Hold Me Back\" passed horses on the backstretch when he went inside. I\'m still baffled as to why Desormeaux didn\'t keep him rolling. As I said, perhaps I\'m mistaken and my eyes deceive me, but the 2-3-4 Derby runners surely didn\'t all falter on their own. Did they? Hmmm... I guess we\'ll never know for sure.
I will paraphrase Gary Stevens on the subject: It\'s 80-10-10....80% of the time, it\'s the horse...10% of the time a jockey can help the horse win, and 10% of the time, a jockey can cost the horse the race...
Nice. So which was it ? :)