I am pulling for Charitable Man tomorrow in the Peter Pan but this Zito horse scrares me.
Zito has been flying under the rader this year but this one looks dangerous with the paired big numbers in his first two starts this year and then the bad effort on the polytrack which may makes his odds higher than they should be. He has the great 2 year old numbers to run back to and still has every right to improve given the 2 year old foundation.
Hello Broadway (also known as Nobiz Like Shobiz part 2) is a nice horse but slower than several others in here and he will take alot of money.
Imperial Council could be dangerous if he can behave himself in the paddock and not get so worked up like last time and Charitable Man could jump up 2nd time back and now that he\'s back to the dirt track that he likes but the value in the race would seem to come from using Brave Victory and throwing out Hello Broadway in the exotics.
I would also note that Stately Character has a pattern that looks like Mine that Bird, slow but could jump up (notwithstanding that he has already improved alot from his 2 year old top) but lighting isn\'t going to strike 2x in the 2 weekends, is it?
Thoughts?
Although he didn\'t train there, Scorewithcater ran in the same 2 races as MTB did, and ran well.
FWIW, David\'s Rock, who gave Hello Broadway a scare in that last Keeneland effort, finished last in an allowance at Churchill yesterday as the 6-5 favorite.
Doesn\'t Nick Zito win some type of prize for the most horses entered in 3-year old stakes that don\'t hit the board? He\'s got one heck of a year going.
Looks to me like Imperial Council crushes this questionable bunch at 3-2 odds on his way to the June 6th race.
Stately Character has the positive pattern and should like the venue change. Despite the extra weight and piggish works, he looks like the value play underneath as easily the longest shot on the board. Plently of recent experience at the distance which most of these don\'t have. Sometimes they get a bit too aggressive up front with that long run to the turn going 9 at BEL; outside of the fave I see the distinct possibility of several in here getting slow late and Cornelio picking up a piece.
Obviously if Charitable Man is all straightened out and ready he could manhandle these but given the expected price I\'ll bet against it.
An observation based on this race (and others). It seems like GP form has not held up. Dunkirk went backwards, QR got hurt, Theregoesjojo didn\'t move forward, Imperial Council backed up to a 4 from a 2, Brave Victory from a 2 to an eight (poly?), Santana Six faltered in the Derby Trial and in the older division Albertus Maximus didn\'t hold form in Dubai.
Off the top of my head the only one I can identify that has held up is Einstein.
Therefore maybe I look at Charitable Man second off.
Thoughts?
The top two finishers in the Westchester last week were racing at GP, and Imp Council did pair his top when shipped up and streched out in the Gotham. I\'d say it\'s inconclusive at best. I think there are bigger factors here to like or dislike the ones that raced at GP; mostly their odds IMO.
I think Imperial Council is a terrible favorite here..He spit the bit in his last with no excuse. Charitable Man seems to be the play here if he improves off his two year old form as the sire stats suggest, he crushes these. Throw out the last on the poly. Charitable Man gets a huge win bet if he is close to his M/L. Top connections, good trip, bred for distance, good weight, good odds, that\'s enough for me.
I have seen occaisonal remarks in here about dirt track ideosyncracies. For whatever reasons, some horses don\'t translate their performance from one track to the next. GP to CD might not work but then GP to BP might be okay. If people here with years of experience can elaborate, I know there are varying amounts of sand and clay and so forth, aside from biases and the tightness of turns, but if anyone has some clear ideas about shippers from track ___ to track _____ in the East, it sure helps.
Thanks,
Bill
Leamas,
The only way to tell is by watching the horse get over different dirt tracks. There is really no way to verify what you are looking for before they run.
There is strong data(see TG, Beyer,Rags) which show that horses coming from certain circuits, like Delaware Park, Philadelphia Park, do NOT reproduce their ridiculous big figs when shipping to New York, for example.
Until a few years ago, horses with competitive TG figs, shipping from Churchill to Saratoga did extremely poorly as did the 3 trainers who raced many of them.
The two examples cited may have little to do with the different dirt surfaces themselves but rather with the permissiveness of some tracks to look the other way re medications.
Mike
Absolutely right imo - appreciatively more likely to repeat those Del numbers at MTH rather than at Bel and based on the past few years , personally I\'m beginning to consider CD \"like\" a Mid-Atlantic track ...
Miff-- Yep. Makes this game more fun, because otherwise it isn\'t complicated enough.
Churchill changing labs this year is something to keep an eye on when those horses ship in-- they may run better now. And Marcus is right about Mth-- last summer it was wide open, and a lot of those horses didn\'t run to their figures when they came to NY.
Thanks to both you guys. I do tend to dismiss certain speed tracks like Del when they go to NY tracks (not necessarily Philly as much), but I have been getting beat up thinking FG was an inferior track when shipped to CD or Arlington. You\'re right, it\'s very case by case.
Nice call.