Sorry if this is redboarding, but I have been racking my brain for two days trying to come up with a reason (aside from Borel) that I should have played MTB.
I have been paying closer attention to the Thoro Pattern more recently. Obviously other factors come into play when deciding whether or not a horse is likely to run a big effort or not.
The horses most likely to run a new top(and their finishing position) in the Derby were:
WSB-38......9th
MTB-36.....1st
MM-36......3rd
FF-36.....18th
DP-36.......14th
PC-36.......4th
POTN-31......2nd
AR-31....16th
what does the number 38 down to 31 signify after the name of the horse?
Interesting, thanks for the post.
According to the ThoroPattern that is the percentage chance that the horse has of running a new top.
You can find a detailed explanation of the ThoroPattern by clicking on the \"Introduction\" link to the left.
Jack,
With all due respect, that stat is pretty meaningless in absolute terms. You could put a 5k claimer from Philly Park in the Derby with a 45% chance of running a new top, but you still can\'t bet the horse to win.
Mine that Bird was the 18th fastest horse coming into the Derby. The \"positive pattern\" comment in the seminar was an offhand remark, immediately followed by \"but he would need an incredible jump just to get in the number\".
18th fastest out of 19, nowhere near fast enough to win, prepping in New Mexico, trained by a guy with a couple wins in the last year. 50-1 is nowhere near enough.
The tougher question now is what to do with this horse in 2 weeks. Now that he has run the \"0\" or thereabouts, he could pair it up. 3 year olds improve in leaps. As the favorite in the Preakness, he would be a \"bounce\" bet against. However, I think he still could be 10-1 in the Preakness, as many will consider him a fluke. We still have to see who signs up to run in the Preakness, but at double digit odds, he still could be interesting.
Would love to bet a fixed price at today\'s odds in the NY post. They have Mr. Fantasy at 8-1. Assuming he got a decent figure in his last, he may be the most likely winner, if he runs.
Fine. But even a new top for this horse, whose prior top was a 5, didn\'t seem to be enough to get the job done. In a 19 horse field, I think he was the second slowest coming in. Only Advice was slower. Given the opportunity to bet a race like this again, I still wouldn\'t use him. The only thing that struck me about this group as a whole was that on paper they had one of the ugliest running lines of any group of derby starters I\'d seen in a while. Except for a few, if they\'d already run fast enough to contend, they\'d bounced or they were coming in off of an effort that could cause them to bounce. I suspect there was an awful lot of bouncing going on and that probably laid the groundwork for the one horse who moved forward. Still, an unbelievably weird race. When do the lab results come back?
\"50-1 is nowhere near enough\"
Jim, I thought 100-1 was more like it but check out Beyer:
\"Because many people blindly bet on long shots in the Derby, even hopeless horses rarely go off at odds as high as 50 to 1. Mine That Bird deserved to be 200 to 1. (Indeed, customers of Betfair, the international gambling Web site, could have fetched odds of 220 to 1 in midweek. When wagering closed, the gelding was 139 to 1\"
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"50-1 is nowhere near enough\"
>
> Jim, I thought 100-1 was more like it but check
> out Beyer:
>
> \"Because many people blindly bet on long shots in
> the Derby, even hopeless horses rarely go off at
> odds as high as 50 to 1. Mine That Bird deserved
> to be 200 to 1. (Indeed, customers of Betfair, the
> international gambling Web site, could have
> fetched odds of 220 to 1 in midweek. When wagering
> closed, the gelding was 139 to 1\"
Betfair? Last time I looked at the Betfair board, most of the horses had less than $20 of action. The MTB odds could have come from a guy in Belgium bidding 2 euros against a three dollar and seventy-five cent offer from New Zealand.
OK, two things and correct me if I\'m wrong. Earlier in the week we were looking at a -0 - -3 or better to win the race. After the scratches the horses with those two numbers went away which left us looking at a 0 or so...am I wrong?
If you go over the analysis it clearly states that this bird has a good chance of moving forward, just not enough to make him competitive. If you remove the top two, suddenly he doesn\'t look so bad...maybe not enough to win but at 50:1 maybe worth a look or even a play. I just don\'t think he was that ridiculous a win given the conditions and scratches. No, I didn\'t play him, and congrats to any who did, but I just don\'t think it was such a huge mistake him winning. Yes I will say that I was sorely disappointed by many...all...of my picks for their bad rides, poor luck or whatever but that is racing, and it is the best on Derby day.
Second question, did boreal move that horse through on the rail with plenty of space or did he split the rail and the rail horse...I\'ve seen the replay twice but still am not sure I am watching the same race and all my buddies tell me the rail opened up for him by 5 feet. Any thoughts?
50-1 in the win pool but i thin in the exotics the odds were about right