So is it just me or is this the first time in a long time that the Preakness could turn out to be a better betting race with more accomplished horses than the Kentucky Derby? I can't believe how bad much of this field is, and how tough it is to separate the top few... think I'm going to wait for greener pastures.
Still... I don't think I could forgive myself if it turned out I was right about a few of these and I didn't take at least a check swing into a multi-million dollar pool. But I refuse to spread out in the Tri\'s or Super this year with hopes of catching the right bomber(s) that may happen to hit. For me that's like being offered a choice between gonorrhea or syphilis and then trying to figure out which one is better. With all respect, I live in MN and just had to do that in last November\'s Senate election here, and look what that\'s gotten me so far...
So, for what it is worth, I fully expect to lose this year. But I am going to make a very focused play anyway based upon what I perceive to be the value in this year\'s pools. I am going to post that play hear and hope a few of you can either talk me into saving my money or talk me into betting more.
For starters, my key horses are going to be FF and PON. I am going to toss IWR and DUN and use them as savers only. I was originally going to toss PON as well because his figures are low and I just can't forgive them even though this race is on dirt and he has more or less been running on lint. But my info says he has trained better than anyone else over the Churchill strip. He's had two really good works over that track with strong, double gallop outs in quick times. He is experienced, a multiple grade 1 winner, highly competitive (see the replays of Robert Lewis and CashCall), and he has been acting very aggressive in the mornings. That's usually exactly what you want to see in your derby horse. Based on this, I think he is going to LOVE running on the dirt if the track comes up fast. Mud or slop is another story and could be anyone's guess, as is his ability to take dirt in the face. This is just a hunch, but I think Baffert isn't sure about this either. That's probably why he chose post 16 even though he could have had others further inside. I think he is feeling very confident this year and looking to play it safe by giving Gomez options and hoping to get a good, outside stalking trip. What he may wind up with instead is a brutal 4w 4w that could really hurt his chances. But if anyone can work out a trip it should be Gomez. Being outside after the first turn should give Gomez to option to ease PON to the outside if it turns out he can't take the dirt.
I know PON's TG numbers make him look too slow. But I don't think it is going to take a negative 4 to win this year, and PON's races at SA have been going slow early and fast late. This tends to compress the overall numbers of any speed figure because a horse can't close his final 1/4 mile in 21 + change to make up for a 3/4 time of 112. So I think PON has a forward move left in him and could pop off a negative 1 or so, which is what I think it is going to take to win this year.
My other key horse is going to be FF. His pattern screams big forward move to me as well, and I THINK I love how he has been training. What I mean by that is this:
I loved his 1 mile workout at Keenland. I remember when Jones put a similar 1 mile move into Hard Spun two years ago and then followed that one up with a hard 57 and change work at Churchill 6 days later. That 57 and change thing really threw me for a loop, and because of that I wound up tossing Hard Spun in 2007. That wound up costing me a fair amount of money, which is usually the only way I learn or remember anything.
So there I was this year sitting in my Cancun hotel room Monday morning, cell phone in hand, just praying I was about to get a call from my clocker saying FF went in 59 or so with a double gallop out in 24+change for his final derby work.
Nope... Snake eyes.
I got to pay .99 cents a minute to hear FF went the same 57 and change as Hard Spun (although my guy says he galloped out in 15.12, which is a lot different than what the official clocking said). Why oh why is this game never easy...
Anyway, the point is I had to go down to the pool and do a few shots of Tequila to think about this for a bit. My guy caught FF going 33.22, 45.06, 57.98, out 6F in 113.10 into a strong headwind for his final work. For reference, Hard Spun went 33.50, 45.02, 57.60, out 6F in 112.52 back in 2007. Now I'm not about to try to compare workout times over different days, let alone over different years. But I think the important thing to take from all of this is that it is more or less the same sequence of moves. And Hard Spun ran a new top in his Derby and really should have won the race in my opinion. So does that mean I should assume the same for FF?
I think it's too early to tell if FF will turn out to be better, or even as good, as Hard Spun. But I think it's safe to say he's not exactly a tomato can or a walking feed bill either. And nothing, and I mean nothing, would make me hit the Jack Daniels bottle harder than tossing FF because of his last training move and then watching him beat me just like Hard Spun did two years ago. Fool me once... et al.
Anyway, I hope the rest of you aren't in the same hopeless position as me. Because I have no choice but to assume FF is about to run the race of his life and now I have to bet it that way no matter what and would have had to have anyway even if FF went in 55 and change for his final move.
So those are my two key horses for this year. FF and PON. True, these are two obvious choices. But the value comes in by using IWR as a saver only. He may be the fastest horse in the race, but his pattern screams bounce, he will likely be the favorite, and you make money in this game by playing against these types of horses and you don\'t let yourself feel bad when they pair up and beat you. There is no value to a ticket that has PON, FF, and IWR on it unless a bomber hits the super, so that is exactly how I will play the saver. Same thing for DUN- a very talented, but slight, horse with limited experience. Curlin was much the same experience wise, but he had even better credentials and was a very robust animal that turned out to be very special in the long run. If he couldn't overcome getting roughed up in the Derby I\'m hoping DUN won't either. I think the draw also hurt him a lot unless he happens to get a lucky trip. He\'s going to have to come from out of it and weave his way through traffic. So he is also a saver bet in the Supers only because there is no value in using him with PON and FF.
I don't think RR is as good as some people seem to believe. He was life and death to hold off his stable mate in the UAE derby and he had about as strong a speed favoring bias to aid him that day as is possible. So he will also be a saver bet only for me, but a little stronger one because he does offer some value.
PC has trained poorly and looks bouncy. That was legitimately a big race he ran in his last. Complete toss. If he beats me he beats me.
Same thing for GQ. He got a perfect trip outside on a dead rail day at Keenland, ran a TG figure of 1 and I think that is the best he has in him. I don't think he is likely to get another bias aided trip and this field is going to be a lot tougher than the one is his last, so IMO he is not very likely to pair or move forward.
I just can't see MM getting the 1 1/4. My guess is he makes a move on the backstretch into the turn and fades. Hard knocking horse though. So small saver only because he offers value.
If you bought the seminar you probably know by know which three horses that leaves that look like their fast enough to contend and fill out the Tri. The rest of these are too slow and I am not going to bother to sort them out.
So like I said, I fully expect to lose the derby this year and hope to make up for it on the Preakness. But my play this year will be a couple of very focused Trifecta Tickets:
- FF,PON / FF,PON / 3 value based contending horses.
- FF,PON / 3 horses / FF,PON
- A few moon shot supers
- And a few savers, mostly in the supers, using the ones I mentioned above.
May they all get home safely!
You and I are keying the same two but I will take the seminar horses seriously as that simple approach paid big dividends for me the last two years underneath the chaulk.
WEATHER!!!! Friday looks like the track will come up sloppy for the Oaks but there\'s a 60% chance that it will be wet/fast or good come derby time. This is the most trusted link I have ever found for gauging weather and in my day job, we live or die by weather so I recommend book marking it. Most other forecasters get their information straight from the NWS forecast office. Check it again tomorrow afternoon and for sure Sat morning:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=38.23278669950994&lon=-85.7427978515625&site=lmk&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en
mjellish Wrote:
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> May they all get home safely!
Amen.
Still get a knot in my gut when I think about last year.
MJ,
Thanks as always for the terrific thoughts.
Not sure what your clocker thinks about how FF has looked on the track for the last few days but I have been on the CD backstretch and I think FF looks absolutely horrible. He looked the worst of any Derby horse that was out there today with the possible exception of MM. He looks tucked up, wasn\'t striding out and is pretty crabby on top of that.
I was with the a group of blookstock agents and trainers watching the work and everyone kind of cringed when he went by both times.
For whatever it\'s worth, I figured I would pass along since you suggested you wanted someone to save you some money!
Great luck either way on Sat.
Good insight Cove - thanks for the onsite reporting - it is helpful. However, until Larry Jones runs a horse that pukes the bit in the Derby, I personally gotta go with what he thinks is best and play his horse accordingly. His track record is all any of us have to go on. Nothing else. I believe Jimbo eluded to this point a few days or weeks back. Until Jones proves he\'s lost, I will consider him worthy of serious inclusion in all Derby wagers.
I was wondering if you saw any of the Woodford Turf horses and how they looked?
For what it\'s worth-- Elliot Walden told me that yes, FF looks \"rough\", but that all Jones\' horses look like that because he gallops them \"in his own unique style\" that causes them to go with their heads up and stab the ground. I have absolutely no idea what the import of all the workout and physical on this horse is, so I\'m ignoring it all and going by the data.
JB,
Sometimes I am trying to combine so many different things in my head (TG\'s, workouts, physical appearances) that all of the datapoints do more harm than good so I think your idea to just follow the data is as good as any.
That said, I have seen Hard Spun and Eight Belles the last twp years on the backstretch before the race and they were thriving, nothing like what FF looks like.
Wrongly,
The only way most of us know which horses are which is that the Derby and Oaks runners wear special saddle clothes with their names printed on the side so everyone can identify them.
Otherwise, I can\'t tell which of the other 300 horses on the backside is which in the AM so unfortunately, I don\'t have any insight on the others.
Good luck!
Buck,
Totally legit view. I am going to feel awfully stupid if I lose this thing just because of how he looked when the sheets and Jones\' track record tell a totally different story.
Having said that, I feel awfully stupid most days so I don\'t know why this Sunday should be any different.
Thanks for the info Jim.
My info is that they really didn\'t let him do much of anything today, and even less yesterday. I have no answer for what you are seeing, but I think Jones likes to gallop his own horses and he is a sort of old fashioned cowboy.
Also, given what happened last year, i don\'t think there is a chance that Jones runs this guy if there is anything even remotely wrong with him. He just lost Old Fashioned, we know what happened last year, etc. There is simply no way he takes a chance of another media circus. No one is that much of a cowboy.
My gut tells me if he goes in the gate he is ready. But I will ask my guy and see what he says.
Greatly appreciate the info though. You should send me a pm and I will try to hook you up for a drink with my clocker. You two should have plenty to talk about.
I\'ll be there in person next year.
Well there you have it.
Does anyone know if any of the reporters at Chruchill this week have asked Baffert why he didn\'t at least try POTN on dirt once last fall or this spring?
I like your observation re: PON and will rethink him (since I didn\'t plan to include him in any type of bet)...however, the closing fraction-ratings in his PPs don\'t look better than around 8 other horses...who have similar or better overall speed.
MJ
Can fool me once apply to Colonel John/POTN ?
You ended up not needing him,but that was your other under key last year.
Different trainer and pattern,but the same slow figs.CJ if memory serves correct was working and training lights out also.
Good luck with your play.
I just don\'t see it with POTN. He hasn\'t shown much improvement on his preferred surface. He will lose a lot of ground based on his PP and the likely race shape---I can\'t imagine him being less than 4W on the first turn. As a result, no matter how well he is training, he will have to move forward in such a dramatic fashion that I think I would need 20-1 to use him personally. He seems to be the definition of an underlay.
Last year, in a field that was probably one of the slowest in recent history, the superfecta--which I know you also hit-- was comprised of 4 of the 7 horses that had run at least a 0.
Maybe this race is more straightforward than it seems.
I am going to key Dunkirk, use FF liberally and play IWR to bounce (off the top line). I will then use some of the longshots that have run fast enough on dirt to be competitive underneath. A Peace Rules type effort from RR would not surprise me. The first time dirt horses will have to beat me. The only one I may use is CC in the 3rd or 4th slot.
If it comes up wet FF will become my (and the rest of America\'s) key.
Good luck all.