Is there a rule that if you took high school geometry you can\'t get a trainer\'s license? Can\'t believe the draw decisions.
who is making the funny decisions? (not near a tv) please don\'t say Godolphin.
TGJB,
I know you have mentioned in the past that you can\'t get the CD Sat sheets up until you get the final from Equibase, but with the draw being at noon this year, instead of the usual 5 pm, is there any chance we will have access to them around 6 or 7 pm, instead of the usual 10 pm?
I ask because I don\'t want to have to sit around my office waiting to print....
Thanks!
Here they are:
1. West Side Bernie (30-1)
2. Musket Man (20-1)
3. Mr Hot Stuff (30-1)
4. Advice (30-1)
5. Hold Me Back (15-1)
6. Friesan Fire (5-1)
7. Pappa Clem (20-1)
8. Mine that Bird (50-1)
9. Join in the Dance (50-1)
10. Regal Ransom (30-1)
11. Chocolate Candy (20-1)
12. General Quarters (20-1)
13. I Want Revenge (3-1)
14. Atomic Rain (50-1)
15. Dunkirk (4-1)
16. Pioneerof the Nile (4-1)
17. Summer Bird (50-1)
18. Nowhere to Hide (50-1)
19. Desert Party (15-1)
20. Flying Private (50-1)
If that speeds up when Equibase sends them, yes.
Godolphin chose 19 for Desert Party with 1,2 and 3 open. Others (like Pletcher and Baffert) were equally nuts.
But really don\'t understand the logic of using Dominguez and taking an outside post.
The two speeds right next to each other. Great draws for Mott and Jones.
TGJB,
Whats your thoughts on the M/L?
That\'s why God invented seminars.
Looking forward to the seminar but have a different take on the trainers decisions.
Baffert knew that Pletcher was picking immediately behind him and reasoned that his colt had more early lick, so he took 16. If Pletcher takes 15, (likely), this gives him a buffer to his inside because there is a gap between the gates with the first fourteen horses in the main gate, and the balance in the auxillary.
bin Suroor did not want any part of the inside. At Churchill, a ten panel race starts out of the chute, and the chute is bent inward much like a worn out paper clip.
The oddity or poor decision was from the Chocalate Candy crowd. Picking third they chose number 11 which puts them standing in the gate for what will seem like an eternity while the \"last\" 18 are loaded. Just my take. bbb
Baffert had the 5th selection, Pletcher the 6th, they chose 15 and 16 posts. I think MM and WSB got very lucky in the one and two posts considering they had the 18th and last selections, should save some ground somewhere.
Last time I looked the rail had won this race more times than any other post.
What\'s with Dunkirk being installed at 4-1 with no graded stakes wins? Strange, but then again - it\'s Mike B making the line. Here\'s my stab at off odds:
. West Side Bernie (40-1)
2. Musket Man (16-1)
3. Mr Hot Stuff (45-1)
4. Advice (80-1)
5. Hold Me Back (12-1)
6. Friesan Fire (5-1)
7. Pappa Clem (11-1)
8. Mine that Bird (70-1)
9. Join in the Dance (75-1)
10. Regal Ransom (22-1)
11. Chocolate Candy (13-1)
12. General Quarters (22-1)
13. I Want Revenge (2-1)
14. Atomic Rain (80-1)
15. Dunkirk (6-1)
16. Pioneerof the Nile (3-1)
17. Summer Bird (70-1)
18. Nowhere to Hide (90-1)
19. Desert Party (14-1)
20. Flying Private (200-1)....LOL
The math doen\'t work Buck. Unless Churchill raises the takeout in the win pool to about 25%. You never know with the powers to be in horse racing.....
The favorites won\'t be as short as you have them. No 2-1 on IWR, nor 3-1 on POTN, and certainly not 11-1 on Pappa Clem. Your mid-range horses look about right.
72 hours to go. The adrenislan is starting to flow. Over/under on the superfecta is $30,000 for a $1......
We will see. I can\'t see IWR much higher than 3-1 with those IEAH silks on but what do I know really. I think there\'s a significant chance three of the top 5 betting choices will land in the super.
Not this decade though
That could be a outcome of randomness being tampered with. Now that trainers get to pick their spots (last thirteen years or so?), how many times have they taken good horses out to the aux gate? The one-hole may stay cold until some year where the best horse winds up with the 20th pick.
If the Tri pays over 5k for a buck, that means every dollar in the tri and super pools will be taxed with money being shipped right to Iris.
You have to figure that\'s 40 or 50 million..............times .25.........if my math is correct, 25% of 40 million is.......drumroll please.
ten million bucks heading right out of circulation for the nations throngs of horseplayers in a scant 2 minutes and some small change.
10 million for two minutes work ain\'t a bad gig if you can get it.
The thing i want to know is this. When the US Govt watches the Derby, do they get their voodoo dolls out and stick pins in the favorites?
And Elliot Walden who uses TG and understands ground loss chose posts 3,4 and 5. Horses like Dunkirk are giving up on average 6 lengths given the running style and the post. Pressers from outside post are gigantic underlays be it the 1st Saturday in May or a mile claimer on a 7f grass course.
Following Gato Del Sol\'s Derby win, Eddie Gregson explained that he asked a friend with an MIT degree to tell him what path to take from an outside post at Churchill, to minimize ground loss in the Derby. The friend did the math, not the theorizing one reads here, and told him to tell Eddie Delahoussaye to aim the horse at the first turn and not worry about angling in very gradually to that point from the extreme outside.
Groundloss was minimal with that approach, no horses impeded his progress and the horse galloped home, coming off the pace, never getting to the rail or near it until late in the stretch.
Subsequent Derbies proved the outside posts don\'t have to be a problem for any running style if a horse is not jerked around the first time down the stretch. So there\'s much ado about nothing being discussed here, if you ask me.
Too late for this year\'s seminar, but that\'s a study-- average ground loss for each Derby post position. Ground loss relative to finish position would also be interesting.
And as long as the other horses get out of your way and let you angle in, that will work fine.
I don\'t have that data but I can tell you from studies I\'ve done pressers from post 10+ going 2Ts on 8F tracks lose on average 5 paths. I guarantee it\'s at least that from outside posts in the Derby. Even a stone cold closer gets the worst of it. You can\'t exactly cut over 18 paths to tuck in, unless of course you want to drop 20 lengths out of it.
Ian. Watch Calvin Borel on Street Sense in the \'07 Derby.
Then that\'s how you play it ALM - don\'t worry about ground loss from outside posts. It sure makes the handicapping easier if you throw out this variable.
\"no horses impeded his progress\"
this is good. You can probably assume that here too. Were there 20 horses in the Gato Del Sol Derby? Ah, what\'s the difference. I\'m sure the 20 horses in THIS field will magically arrange themselves so whichever horse you pick will not be impeded. The horse you pick will probably be fast enough to circle the field and sprint home a winner.
You can\'t buck MIT! Who knew the rail wasn\'t the shortest way around the track? Bunch of dummies on this board...
HP
I can\'t wait.
It can be done, depending on pace scenario, running style, and rider. Cordero came from last on Cannonade in a 24 horse field without leaving the rail. But that\'s the exception, not the rule.
The entire card is now availalbe on equibase, but no odds yet. Looks like an amazing card, the pick 4 ending in the derby has entries of 11, 9, and 10 leading into the Derby. Hopefully there will be some live longshots in there to make the payoffs juicy.
Also, in looking at the updated Oaks entries, the wagering menu is there and in addition to the Oaks/Derby double, there is also an Oaks/WRTurf/Derby pick 3. Very interesting, especially if RA flops.
Yeah, your right about SS, but it doesn\'t happen much. And it certainly is not accurately reflected in the odds. It\'s why my personal ROI in turf routes is so much higher than in every other type of race.
Actually your response makes no sense.
If you are outside and don\'t try to tuck in towards the rail in the first run through the CD stretch you are a lot less likely to encounter other horses. The implication of the MIT strategy was that the ground loss would be minimal, not non-existant. You don\'t need a miracle trip like Ferdinand\'s or even Street Sense\'s. That was the point of Gregson\'s strategy.
And NO, there were not 20 horses in the 1982 field. There were 19.
I\'m trying not be harsh, but you can\'t seriously think that a horse starting from 16 has the same chance as a horse starting from 2 of having horses inside him around the first turn, no matter what path he would ideally like to take. Of COURSE if there are no other horses in the way you don\'t lose much ground angling over through a straightaway-- the Greeks knew that long before MIT.
Oh, and by the way HP, I\'ve been betting the Derby since 1961 and have had the winner, usually on a single selection, twenty times in that period, including some god-awful longshots. This is going to be a tough year, not because of post positions, but rather because there are 4 legitimate contenders.
ALM - You get another prize. This has got to be the ALL-TIME redboard post. Usually people are content to redboard ONE race. You are up to TWENTY. Congratulations on all those past winners. No one can buck that kind of record. Are you sure it\'s only TWENTY? Maybe you missed one? Do you have a list on your refrigerator? How do you keep track of all those winners? Don\'t sell yourself short. If it\'s really TWENTY ONE or TWENTY TWO winners don\'t be ashamed to update us. And don\'t be afraid to put up THIS YEAR\'s winner too! We\'re all waiting for your pick now.
Jerry - stop with your theorizing. This is much ado about nothing. Have ALM give the seminar. Have YOU picked TWENTY Derby winners? I think not!
This field does truly stink.. I have to agree that only 4 can win it.
alm Wrote:
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> I\'ve been betting the Derby
> since 1961 and have had the winner, usually on a
> single selection, twenty times in that period,
> including some god-awful longshots.
Who needs Chuckles??
You\'re funny, but I\'ve got the money.
Can\'t imagine anyone that does not want to save ground, however in races with a long straight run to the turn(like the derby)the outside is tactically better from the standpoint of avoiding the surge of horses angling towards the inside which can \"bury\"inside runners.
Two turn races with a short run to the turn, the inside is golden, the outside poison. Races with long straight runs (like all one turn races run at 7f or more)the inside is not preferred and presents a race shape/tactical disadvantage for reasons above
Think that some are confusing saving ground, always preferable, with the different issues regarding a short or long run to the turn.
Mike
miff Wrote:
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> Think that some are confusing saving ground,
> always preferable, with the different issues
> regarding a short or long run to the turn.
>
> Mike
Thanks, Mike -- I couldn\'t figure out how to say this concisely.
I calculated this last year, when Big Brown got the 20-hole; the difference in distance he needed to travel to get to the rail by the start of the first turn vs. if he had the 1-hole -- assuming he could do so, and in a straight line -- was a whopping 4 feet or some such.
That\'s not what happened, of course, but it didn\'t matter: the ground he lost was more than amply offset by the fact that he got a clean trip.
This is a very good point from Miff and highlights that what I don\'t like about people generalizing and going overboard about how they characterize \"sheet players\" opinions. What Miff says here is on the money, and I\'ve disagreed with the guy on other things, but like most \"sheet players,\" he is not ignorant of pace, post, etc. and the subtleties of a short run to the first turn vs. a longer one. It\'s not all number and we know that. HP
I\'ve had the Derby winner the first Sunday in May for 22 straight years now. I keep the list on my refrigerator.
so it makes sense that MM and WSB can save some ground, and with their last 2 figs which are very competitive be right there. I am keying them 2nd and 3rd in tris, some wins too. They are both some of the fastest in the race. This is the race to make the $
miff Wrote:
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> Can\'t imagine anyone that does not want to save
> ground, however in races with a long straight run
> to the turn(like the derby)the outside is
> tactically better from the standpoint of avoiding
> the surge of horses angling towards the inside
> which can \"bury\"inside runners.
>
> Two turn races with a short run to the turn, the
> inside is golden, the outside poison. Races with
> long straight runs (like all one turn races run at
> 7f or more)the inside is not preferred and
> presents a race shape/tactical disadvantage for
> reasons above
>
> Think that some are confusing saving ground,
> always preferable, with the different issues
> regarding a short or long run to the turn.
>
> Mike
Very well said.
Jerry,
I thought you invented \"the Seminar\", God invented you....
NCT
NCT:
I missed the annual \"I can\'t download the damn thing\" post this year.
Good luck Saturday.
Downloading and using this seminar was SO easy, even I could do it without consulting one of my tech support guys (i.e., my sons).
Seriously: slick stuff this year, well done.
Well actually I did not download the seminar this year, sans the complaint. I am just going to buy the sheets and imagine Jerry\'s voice speaking to me while I do my \"Cipherin\". You see \"Cipherin\" is one of those southern words I picked up over the years. It can be attributed to that Great NC Liberal Andy Griffith.
Those deep dulcet tones of Mr Brown bellowing out of my computer, while listening to Alan on Sirius all at the same time, is more than any one person should dare try to handle at once, especially if they contradict each other.....
I still have a few days to put something together.
NC Tony
Richiebee,
Good luck to you as well.!!
NCT
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
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> Well actually I did not download the seminar this
> year, sans the complaint. I am just going to buy
> the sheets and imagine Jerry\'s voice speaking to
> me while I do my \"Cipherin\". You see \"Cipherin\" is
> one of those southern words I picked up over the
> years. It can be attributed to that Great NC
> Liberal Andy Griffith.
NCT:
TV historians will also point out that Jethro Bodine, who while pursuing a career as a secret agent referred to himself as \"naught naught seven\", was also fond of the term \"cipherin\".
Whatever happened to Dash Riprock?
I\'m just wondering if Borel\'s ride fit the MIT guy\'s strategy. HP
I thought Borel was the MIT guy.
Yes he used the Pythagorean theorem......