Just in case I get lucky and hit this thing, I wanted to go on record with my picks
I am only using three horses for the top 2 positions.
Desert Party
Regal Ransom
I Want Revenge
Only thing that would change my mind from here is if one of these 3 drew 17 or wider. I will be at the post draw doing my best voodoo dance to hope that doesn\'t happen.
These 3 are the best combination of a) fast enough b) doing well in the mornings (which is extremely important to me) and c) likely to get the right kind of trip
I don\'t believe in spreading thin just to say I cashed in the Derby so if one of RR OR DP don\'t come in the top 2 I will be tearing up my tickets (see no CTC in me at all). If the odds are right, I might bet both of the Dubai horses to win as I am having a tough time differentiating between the two and I really do believe one of them will win this.
Never in a million years did I think I would be including IWR in my exacta in addition to what I have on him in the futures pool because I hate his pattern and I believe huge efforts knock out horses as I have stated here many times. However, I have to trust my own eyes about how the horse looks and there is no physical evidence that the horse is knocked out like there was physical evidence before Big Brown\'s Belmont (as I posted the Friday before the Belmont, he didn\'t switch leads in his gallop on Friday morning before the race).
I changed my mind on IWR for 2 reasons:
1) His breeze today was awesome. He went fast and wasn\'t even asked. Unlike FF who was all out yesterday and didn\'t even have a gallop out, they could barely pull IWR up in his gallop out. Something drastic changed from last week when he was all out to get by his workmate but he galloped well all week and then the breeze today. He is doing very well coming into the race.
2) The race is kind of falling apart and I don\'t think there are too many others to use.
I was going to use both Quality Road and Square Eddie but neither of them are running
FF\'s breeze was horrible. I know he went fast but any of these horses can run 57 if they are all out and that\'s what he was as he tired at the end of the work and there was no gallop out
POTN is a turf horse. I saw him school in the paddock today and he is a very nice looking horse, problem is that his physical appearance (particularly his back end) screams turf which is why Billy started him on the turf. Remember, Empire Maker is a half to Chesterhouse and Chesterhouse is a prolific turf and syn sire, just like Empire Maker is turning out to be. Also, there\'s no big bullet dirt work from Bullet Bob here and I think that\'s a big deal.
Hold Me Back, Dunkirk and Choc Candy seem to be coming into the race ok but race shapes suggests that they will need to circle the field and I don\'t think any of them are good enough to do that get and get up to finish in the top 2. They could get a piece of supers I suppose but I don\'t play those.
I like the patterns for Musket Man and Win Willy but they are both looking like tired horses in the morning who will not run their race. Same with Papa Clem. General Quarters has trained better this week than last week but he still isn\'t training that great and he looks like a bounce to me on the sheets.
I just don\'t see any of the others being fast enough or good enough to win as the bottom 5-7 horses in this thing are kind of jokes with all of the late defections
So, I have liked Regal Ransom and Desert Party all along and since there isn\'t anyone else in here I like and since IWR is training so well, I will throw
him in there pending the post draw and hope he runs third behind the Dubai duo.
Good luck to everyone!
Covelj,
That is unfair shot at Ctc. There might have been one Derby where I could swear he put his pick on the record before they straightend out for home in the stretch......
lol......good luck jimbo!