Quality Road out changes the complexion of the betting a bit.
I Want Revenge 7 to 2
Pioneer of the Nile 5 to 1
Dunkirk 7 to 1
Friesan Fire 7 to 1
Chocolate Candy 15 to 1
Desert Party 15 to 1
Hold Me Back 20 to 1
General Quarters 25 to 1
Papa Clem 25 to 1
Musket Man 25 to 1
Square Eddie 25 to 1
Regal Ransom 30 to 1
Advice 40 to 1
West Side Bernie 40 to 1
Win Willy 40 to 1
Summer Bird 40 to 1
Mr. Hot Stuff 40 to 1
Flying Private 40 to 1
Join in the Dance 40 to 1
Mine that Bird 40 to 1
Jimbo-- Boy do I hope you are right on a lot of those. And you and I may be making a side bet some time after the seminar has been out a day or two.
IWR 5-2 or 3-1
Dunk 5 to 6-1
Pioneer 5 to 6-1
FF 7-1
CC 14-1
Papa 17-1
GQ 20-1
DP 20-1
Michael,
I know I did a 180 on this from 2 weeks ago, but POTN goes off shorter than Dunkirk. I would take that bet in a second. Too much publicity for POTN and too little for Dunkirk, especially with Gomez taking POTN.
That doesn\'t mean I still don\'t think Dunkirk isn\'t the \"dirt\" horse most likely to run a new top, which I believe he is and I think he is easily the 2nd most likely winner (behind IWR, who is 3 points faster than the field).
I think the foreign bookmakers ae going to hit DP a little bit, and maybe RR too. But I think you guys are pretty close.
Are these the odds you expect the public to set in the pools OR do these represent your opinion on the actual probability of winning for each of the horses?
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> I know I did a 180 on this from 2 weeks ago, but
> POTN goes off shorter than Dunkirk. I would take
> that bet in a second. Too much publicity for POTN
> and too little for Dunkirk, especially with Gomez
> taking POTN.
>
> That doesn\'t mean I still don\'t think Dunkirk
> isn\'t the \"dirt\" horse most likely to run a new
> top, which I believe he is and I think he is
> easily the 2nd most likely winner (behind IWR, who
> is 3 points faster than the field).
The UK books are taking more action on Dunk than Pioneer, but I guess that could be the Tabor connection and/or his money. Check this out though - the experts over at the TT love POTN.
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/triple-crown/poll-results.aspx?raceno=59
Jim,
They are the odds I expect the public to set. Factored in is the takeout at Churchill, so the \"math\" works.
Odds from one of the Caribbean joints, while the individual horse odds are pretty bad, some of those props are a bit interesting.
Will any Horse win the 2009 Triple Crown?
All wagers have action. (Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes&Belmont Stakes). Singles Only.
Yes+600
No-1100
2009 Kentucky Derby - Official Winning Time
All wagers have action.
Over 2:01.60 -190
Under 2:01.60 +155
2009 Kentucky Derby - Winning Saddlecloth Number
All wagers have action.
Odd -120
Even -120
2009 Kentucky Derby - Official Win Mutual Payoff
All wagers have action.
Over $18.50 -125
Under $18.50 -115
Odds to Win 2009 Kentucky Derby
All wagers have action.
ADVICE 30/1
CHARITABLE MAN 100/1
CHOCOLATE CANDY 14/1
DESERT PARTY 16/1
DUNKIRK 9/2
FLYING PRIVATE 60/1
FRIESAN FIRE 13/2
GENERAL QUARTERS 20/1
HOLD ME BACK 25/1
I WANT REVENGE 5/2
MINE THAT BIRD 100/1
MR. HOT STUFF 42/1
MUSKET MAN 25/1
PAPA CLEM 15/1
PIONEEROF THE NILE 6/1
REGAL RANSOM 20/1
SQUARE EDDIE 30/1
SUMMER BIRD 40/1
WEST SIDE BERNIE 40/1
WIN WILLY 30/1