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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: TGJB on April 27, 2009, 09:15:10 AM

Title: Hey Barry
Post by: TGJB on April 27, 2009, 09:15:10 AM
Is Unbridled Belle ready to run a top? How much weight are you getting from Zenyatta?
Title: Re: Hey Barry
Post by: Barry Irwin on April 27, 2009, 07:51:03 PM
Unbridled Belle is less than 50-50 to run because she figures to be in heat on Thursday and may be bred to A. P. Indy, in which case we will have her covered and scratch. If the follicle holds off until Saturday, she will run.

Todd Pletcher was feeling pretty good about her chances until the announcement yesterday that Zenyatta was coming.

As you know, UB ran a tremendous race off the bench last year, then went backwards.
Title: Re: Hey Barry
Post by: richiebee on April 27, 2009, 10:46:36 PM
Does anyone else take Zenyatta\'s Churchill appearance to mean that there is a decent chance that the BC will be run at CD, and not SA, this fall?
Title: Re: Hey Barry
Post by: Silver Charm on April 28, 2009, 12:28:48 AM
Maybe.

Or the Trainer is telling the truth and she needs a race and racing needs HER to race

Lotta hearts could be mended this weekend.

Barry good luck you are already off to a busy start with the Derby Trial winner.
Title: Re: Hey Barry
Post by: TGJB on April 28, 2009, 09:00:39 AM
Give her a shot and run her. Big shot (other kind) here, Zenyatta is good but not that good, may not run her best, and gives you 6 pounds.
Title: Re: Hey Barry
Post by: Barry Irwin on April 28, 2009, 02:44:13 PM
As of today, it is 60-40 to run based on her unchanged progesterone level.
Title: Re: Hey Barry
Post by: randy_yu on April 28, 2009, 03:55:49 PM
Barry,

Does a filly in heat affect her performance during a race?  According to Frankel, Ginger Punch was in heat prior to the Persoanl Ensign last year at Saratoga.  You may recall she ran one of her best races, much to our chagrin.
Title: Re: Hey Barry
Post by: Barry Irwin on April 28, 2009, 05:31:38 PM
It is an individual thing, but generally I think it is considered to be a negative. High strung fillies and mares seems to take it harder than more placid distaffers.
Title: Re: Hey Barry
Post by: drbillym on April 29, 2009, 09:09:45 AM
High hopes for Kinsella today?
Title: Re: Hey Barry
Post by: Barry Irwin on April 29, 2009, 06:51:48 PM
Displaced when he got so rank Leparoux had to use too much force to repeatedly check him off heels. The colt can run, and run a lot, but he is still very much a green youngster that needs to learn to settle.
Title: Re: Hey Barry
Post by: randy_yu on May 01, 2009, 05:18:37 PM
Barry,

I thought Unbridled Belle was a great bet at 7/2, especially without Zenyatta.  Are we going to see her again?
Title: Re: Hey Barry
Post by: TGJB on May 01, 2009, 05:35:33 PM
Only on a catalogue page.
Title: Re: Hey Barry
Post by: jimbo66 on May 01, 2009, 05:53:40 PM
She ran like an elephant. She did like a steal at 7-2.  More consistently fast than the winner and getting weight at 5 times the price.  

No such thing as a \"steal\".  

Tomorrow is another day, but today was not a good TG day.  Quite a few \"no shot\" horses on TG won and a bunch of \"good looking TG lines\" ran poorly.  Will be curious to see the analysis tomorrow and see if TGJB/TGAB did as poorly as I did.

I know it is only a million dollars in the pool,but 5-1 on General Quarters?  I guess it must be one big bet, as the double price is in line with other 20-1 shots.
Title: Re: Hey Barry
Post by: miff on May 01, 2009, 05:57:38 PM
\"I know it is only a million dollars in the pool,but 5-1 on General Quarters? I guess it must be one big bet, as the double price is in line with other 20-1 shots\"

Jim,

Think that might be a mistake?, saw him at 14-1, hours ago.


Mike
Title: Re: Hey Barry
Post by: TGJB on May 01, 2009, 06:07:14 PM
Wasn\'t a good day for me or the analysis, but quite a few of the horses we liked did run well.

Two horse boxes in the first and third, in both cases one won and the other ran out.

Two horse box in the sixth ran 1-3.

Zenyatta scratch mad that whole race a different question, and you had to guess about UB on an off track.

Two horse box in the 9th, Cool Coal Man ran okay, the other didn\'t.

Turfiste ran okay at a big price, tough to find that winner.

Still, definitely not a good day.
Title: Re: Hey Barry
Post by: jimbo66 on May 01, 2009, 06:08:19 PM
Miff,

I believe it was a big bet.  I saw the same thing you did.  Before the Oaks went off FF was 4-1, IWR 5-1, Dunkirk 7-1 and POTN 8-1.  With GQ 14-1.

Final odds, FF drifted to 9-2, IWR to 6-1, Dunkirk to 9-1 and POTN to 10-1.  Somebody had to bet bet down and it looks like it was GQ.

Don\'t know about you, but I saved some money when Justwhistledixie scratched.  She wasn\'t going to beat the winner.  Unfortunately, since I couldn\'t skip the Oaks (that would require self control), I keyed the 2 under Rachel.  I thought JB made a good case for her to run well in the seminar.  She was absolutely awful though.  Bejarano gave her a ground saving trip, and she still didn\'t hold 3rd against the 8, even though Gomez was beating on the 8 with over a half mile to go and she was dead then......
Title: Re: Hey Barry
Post by: jimbo66 on May 01, 2009, 06:14:02 PM
Your day sounds familiar.

The winner of the 1st looked good on TG, if you could forgive the NM race.

The winner of the 2nd was the slowest horse in the race on TG and somehow went off pretty short.

Tough to like Warrior\'s Reward at 4-1, 3 points slower than others.

Smart Enough not holding even the exacta was bad in the 6th.

The Laragh race was tough to have.  Although, the Morning line threw me off.  At 6-5 ML, I thought Laragh was a bet against.  At 5-2, not so much.  The only thing Battaglia does worse than call a race is do the morning line...
Title: Re: Hey Barry
Post by: miff on May 01, 2009, 06:19:57 PM
Jim,

Only wish I could book GQ at 5-1. When Dixie scratched(heard she was not doing great after all incidentally)I just unloaded with RA in the oaks/woodford/derby pick 3.Have some bombs in the turf and derby that can still produce a decent score.Figured she was a free square esp after I saw her coming over from the barn,looked like Godzilla.

She ran a winning derby race for sure.Not sure the boys will \"out-fig\" her but they go an eighth more. Pouring rain according to a friend at CD as of 7:30-ish and the local weather guy says rain, rain, rain.Hope he\'s wrong.

Get them tomorrow!

Mike
Title: Re: Hey Barry
Post by: Barry Irwin on May 01, 2009, 06:57:15 PM
Unbridled Belle will hopefull be bred in the morning to A. P. Indy.

She was in season today.

She put in a move down the backstretch, but it was very short lived.

She has never run any good on a wet track.

Rats!

She will be back to try the Delaware Oaks and Personal Ensign again.
Title: Re: Hey Barry
Post by: NoCarolinaTony on May 01, 2009, 09:56:53 PM
I did the same thing Jimbo....thought that 2 sat a perfect trip....and waited and waited and waited for someone to show up second in the photo....Bejerano probably could have sat and waited until they turned to home to ask that horse to run, instead of the top of the final turn..