5 eighths in 57.80.....
Halo
Was the workout at Churchill or was it at Keeneland again?
Churchill Downs. Don\'t know how he looked or anything. This was a workout alert to my email.
I like FF a lot. :57 and change is flying! My only concern is the competition he\'s faced. If I remember correctly he\'s only beaten one horse that will be running in the Derby(PC in the slop).
FF did not show a published work for 26 days following his last start. He was reported to be \"let down\' for 2 weeks after his top wet track TG fig which to me means he was somewhat knocked out from that effort.Real pretty pattern on TG though.
In spite of the work,FF is a very difficult read for me off the 7 weeks spacing.Noted that Cowboy Jones did similar with Hard Spun who maybe wins the derby if SS does not get that perfect rail skimmer.
Mike
miff Wrote:
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> In spite of the work,FF is a very difficult read
> for me off the 7 weeks spacing.Noted that Cowboy
> Jones did similar with Hard Spun who maybe wins
> the derby if SS does not get that perfect rail
> skimmer.
Stop right there Miff. Hard Spun had run a 0 at two so he was plenty fast enough and developed early. This one is not. Good Line but not the same type read to me.
By the way Hard Spun was double digit odds even with the above.
\"Stop right there Miff. Hard Spun had run a 0 at two so he was plenty fast enough and developed early. This one is not. Good Line but not the same type read to me.
By the way Hard Spun was double digit odds even with the above\"
Silver,
Wrong horse, HS never ran 0 at two but did run faster overall than FF going in.
Mike
Was it a 2 at Philly? I know when he got to FG he was quicker than a 6.
Maybe,no debate he was faster than FF.Re todays fast work, the jock Saez thought he went in a minute(nice clock in his head,no?) and Welsch politely stated he could not make heads or tails of the sudden shut down of FF, last quarter 26ish with no gallop out.
Naturally,as JB says,the connections were pleased. Are they ever not?
Mike
He went the first 3/8 in 32?
I read 33 and change, not 32.
Then not 26.
Keeneland poly works and a CD tightener is the formula that worked for Hard Spun,Eight Belles and Proud Spell.
The faster ones and the synthetic horses are gonna have to run him down while likely dealing with traffic and or wide.With QR out he projects for a nice stalking trip and not a whole lot of resistance on the front end when the real running starts IMO.
Yes, correct.
The \"gallop out\" was 1:16 and a piece, which means the 1/8th was 19 and change. Maybe Miff is counting that as part of the 26ish.
Davidovitz on Bloodhorse is more bullish on FF\'s work. Says that watching it, he thought the horse had went in the same 1:01 that POTN went in, as he was on a loose reigh. Also says the horse was gawking after the end of the work, possibly explaining the slow gallop out.
More conflicting views and reasons to both like and dislike horses....
Glad to see you think this one got EASIER with Quality Road out. I understand the comment, as I agree that at 5-1 you could not bet on the horse, or feel confident throwing him out. But this derby is very very confusing.
I believe your REgal RAnsom is \"done\" now that Join in the Dance is in the field. I put RR in the bottom 5.
JB,
Actually worse than that, 45.1 to the half out in 1.14(28.4 last quarter) assuming they got it correct.
Reported splits,11.1,22.1,33.3,45.1,57.4 out in 1.14.
Mike
Wow just give him the trophy.
Silver Charm Wrote:
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> Wow just give him the trophy.
Don\'t be a jerk. He didn\'t say he will win, just that he has a lot of things going for him. Or is it that he likes a horse that you don\'t? You\'ve never touted a horse around here??
Lighten up with name calling.
Sorry Silver. Poor choice of words.
I didn\'t take any offense.Sometimes you have to actually think about how the race might be run.
Playing FF to at least pair with a decent trip is all.He doesn\'t have Hard Spuns natural gas so I peg him to sit 3rd or 4th early on if he doesn\'t get slammed/shuffled out of the gate.Of those that could be in front of him -Join In the Dance isn\'t much of a threat.Papa Clem looks to be sitting on a bounce race and I think FF is more horse than Regal Ransom.Desert Party should be in behind that group letting his stablemate do the dirty work.The faster ones and the synthetic horses farther back.
Not sure where Jones comes up with FF being a 2 mile horse on the bottom.Those Australian horses all look like sprinters unless I\'m missing something.
So what you are saying is he gets a Barbaro Trip.
Similar trip without the 4pt new top.
Needs a middle in post also.
Anything else?
Dry Track, 72 degrees, warm sun, 47 and change half?
Yeah.
One dollar minimum supers.
big18741 Wrote:
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> Yeah.
>
> One dollar minimum supers.
Is that going to be the case again this year?
I hope so as the payouts are awesome..
I am confused by the posters who see this as a confusing Derby. To me it is more clearcut than most.
There are 4 possible winners: IWR, Dun, WSB and FF. Two of them should make an exacta. Three of them might make the tri.
IWR stands heads and shoulders above the other 3, but I respect the fact that some pretty sharp guys here think he is regressing.
Below the top 4 are MM, WW, GQ and HMB, but they are not close. Maybe one of themm hits the board at a big price.
I lean heavily to Dun if you need one choice. And I love how Dun and FF have been prepped for the race...both represent important changes from the two trainers\' usual moves. It suggests both have learned a lot from past losses.
Interestingly, I cannot make the case for PON even hitting the board.
I agree with your picks but how does FF prep represent a change. Its the same way he prepped hard spun.
Saw someone else report that the dime supers are not offered Derby/Oaks day, so $1 min. But they are going to have the 50 cent pick 4s on Derby/Oaks days apparently.
Pioneer has already beat, IWR twice. So he is maybe lays over the rest of the field, but not this guy!
Yep, and if the race were on Pro-Ride, that stat would actually matter......
Raven\'s Pass beat Curlin on Pro-Ride and Red Rocks beat him on turf.
Would you give either of those horses a shot against Curlin on dirt? Nope.
alm Wrote:
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> I am confused by the posters who see this as a
> confusing Derby. To me it is more clearcut than
> most.
>
> There are 4 possible winners: IWR, Dun, WSB and
> FF. Two of them should make an exacta. Three of
> them might make the tri.
If I was that confident that WSB (40-1?) was one of only four that had a chance to win, and of the other three;
- one has regressing pattern, has already run a knockout fig, and is being ridden by a mistake prone teenager with no derby experience
- another one has never raced at 2, never won a stakes race, and was deserted by his jock for a horse that has never raced on the dirt
- and the third has a fast track top slower than half the field and is now looking like the annual wise guy underlay,
I\'d have enough on WSB that if he won it would cover a week in Hawaii for two first class or maybe even a few box seats to a Yankee game
As pointed out, PON beat IWR on synth...unless he improves extremely on dirt, he\'s nowhere near IWR, given the slowness of his synth figures. A bet on him is a guess that he will handle dirt better. It\'s only a guess.
As for DUN\'s background and prep, it is far different from anything I can remember TP doing with a contender before and his 5 wide move on the turn at Gulfstream, which is a killer place to make a move on that track, showed an amazing turn of foot. May be the best of all the contenders.
Jones\' handling of FF....the long layoff, the extreme mile work and now the killer breeze...is all oriented to this animal...he\'s working outside the typical routine another trainer would use...what\'s the last horse you\'ve seen prepped with a mile work this close to the Derby?
As far as the dime supers on Derby/Oaks Day(s) go, apparently CD has made the decision based on the fact that they do not want \'excessive lines at the on-site wagering windows\'.
Clearly this could have been handled a bit more creatively by allowing them on the off-site venues (website wagering, simulcasting outlets, etc.).
Trackjohn
The only thing you are leaving out is that POTN is still eliglble for a few points of improvement off his 2 year old top (which puts him in the minority). Add to that he was a late foal, and a large move up could be more about normal 3 year old development than surface change, and it gives two possible explainations for a large move up, should one happen.
Couldn\'t you say the same thing about Regal Ransom, and we know he can run on dirt.
alm Wrote:
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> As pointed out, PON beat IWR on synth...unless he
> improves extremely on dirt, he\'s nowhere near IWR,
> given the slowness of his synth figures. A bet on
> him is a guess that he will handle dirt better.
> It\'s only a guess.
>
> As for DUN\'s background and prep, it is far
> different from anything I can remember TP doing
> with a contender before and his 5 wide move on the
> turn at Gulfstream, which is a killer place to
> make a move on that track, showed an amazing turn
> of foot. May be the best of all the contenders.
>
> Jones\' handling of FF....the long layoff, the
> extreme mile work and now the killer breeze...is
> all oriented to this animal...he\'s working outside
> the typical routine another trainer would
> use...what\'s the last horse you\'ve seen prepped
> with a mile work this close to the Derby?
Chocolate Candy worked a mile on the same day.
Indeed you could, and I plan on using both of these personally. Large move ups are highly unlikely from any other than these 2, statistically speaking. Doesn\'t mean it will happen of course, but these two have tons of development room, where WSB and Choc Candy have some, but a little less IMO. Dunkirk and Summer Bird have no 2 year old form, but everyone else in the field, again statistically speaking, it would be hard to argue that there is further development possible.
Thanks for the insight. I didn\'t mention before, but his running style also seems problematical to me...he seemed almost rank, maybe just difficult to control, in the SA Derby. If so, he\'ll likely cook himself on the Churchill dirt.
Grass horses run that way and fade on dirt. Aren\'t synth horses more like grass horses? We will see.
In any case, he seems too slow to bet...as do the others coming from CAL...such as CC.
There was a time when the outsized purses were reason enough to prep the fastest horses in SOCAL for the Triple Crown and they won more than their share of the races when they came back east. But the introduction of synth out there may have influenced important owners to stay back east and in the midwest with the good ones. The tide has surely shifted these past few years.
Yeah, Hollendorfer is another terrific trainer. Unfortunately he has a slower horse in this instance.
Great thinking.
I mean, we wouldn\'t want players with smaller bankrools to have any fun with a supefecta bet. Another example of racing looking after their fans.