http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/50445/quality-road-out-of-derby-contention
Sad news to start the day. Does this mean Advice gets in?
I\'m sorry that QR isn\'t healthy enough to run, but I\'m pleased with the decision to hold him out.
I acknowledge that horses with QR\'s condition run all the time, and that the economics of horse racing are such that horses that are less than 100% healthy are on just about every card, every day, at every track in the country...but please, not in the biggest races of the year.
Especially in front of a national audience.
This allows Join In The Dance to get in. Might be a good thing as he will actually inject pace into the race for all you Dunkirk/Chocolate Candy, etc lovers. I\'m sure Pletcher is loving the news as he will have the option to send this one on a suicide mission to tire IWR, RR, FF, and POTN.
Rick I feel for the connections. The owner, trainer, handlers (jockey??)
For some these types of horses only come once in a lifetime and he went sour at just the wrong time.
Roll the clock back five weeks ago and this horse is the winner.
The Beat Goes On Approach of Handicappers sometimes can be a little frustrating. \"He is out now who is in and who does it favor\".
To be honest I am not really thinking of that right now......
I know it\'s bad news to a couple of people who post here and had futures bets, but it makes it a whole lot easier to bet the race. If you are playing exotics, he was someone you couldn\'t rely on to run well and couldn\'t throw out, and he wasn\'t long enough to make that advantageous. All he meant was a wider spread.
If QR makes the Preakness-- and maybe even if he doesn\'t-- this is the first time I can remember that race is coming up tougher than the Derby.
Silver Charm Wrote:
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> Rick I feel for the connections. The owner,
> trainer, handlers (jockey??)
>
> For some these types of horses only come once in a
> lifetime and he went sour at just the wrong time.
>
> The Beat Goes On Approach of Handicappers
> sometimes can be a little frustrating. \"He is out
> now who is in and who does it favor\".
Your magnanimity towards the connections is quite noble, but I doubt that it is widely shared amongst handicappers...and I question whether it even needs to be.
Not to be a jag, but when was the last time an owner / trainer / other person associated with a horse said, \"We feel bad for the bettors out there who backed our horse today -- he just didn\'t have it.\"
My point is, the connections of a given horse have their agenda, and we handicappers have ours; I don\'t think this is a bad thing...it\'s just how it is.
Maybe this perspective will help alleviate your frustration. If not, fine, I just hope that I haven\'t increased it -- not my intent at all.
Rick-- especially considering, as Miff pointed out at the time, they didn\'t announce the problem until the day after betting closed for Pool Three.
It\'s a shame to lose him for the Derby, but they did the right thing. If a horse
cannot even breeze on Monday how can he race on Saturday, in the Derby no less? Even if he is miraculously healed by Sat., he\'s lost too much training time. Let
him heal and then gradually bring him back.
When I first heard the news I posted the following on my Racing Forum:
"This will have a massive impact on the race. Not only was he a favorite,
he was also the prime quality speed in the race and his absence will have a major
impact on how the race will be run. Now the chances of all the other contenders
will have to be re-evaluated - the frontrunners\' chances will improve and the
closers may have to be downgraded."
Then I realized that this gets Join in the Dance, who is an even more of a pure early speed type, in the race. So – the complexion of the race changes back again, and we have an even faster early pace scenario likely.
Late scratches not only affect those that bet on the horse but can change the whole race scenario for all others. That's why I put off all predictions until at least the final entries are in and the post-positions are drawn and would only consider future bets as a lark. Too many unpredictable variables just make them too much of a poor gamble for me. Like Robert Redford, the gambler in "Havana" said, "I like to keep the gambling to a minimum". Of course, others may feel differently as to what is acceptable risk.
Bob
Even though I lost my futures, I\'m relieved. I was getting perplexed what to do if he did run, because it would have messed up any plan I had for exotics because even if he couldn\'t win, he could have still been a factor in tris & supers. Now I can look at the race without the emotion of having QR at 14-1 and plan my bets accordingly. They also did the best for the horse, but I sure would have liked to have known about the 1st quarter crack before I boxed him with Dunkirk in pool 3.