The fine line Jerkens has been walking with this one just got much tougher. Grening has the story at drf.com. bbb
thanks Bells,
here\'s the link:
http://www.drf.com/news/article/103230.html (http://www.drf.com/news/article/103230.html)
this is a brutally tough game.
I know it\'s nowhere near as important to the broader scheme of things as QR but I just found out the filly that I own a piece of that was set to run in the Oaks, Fitz Just Right, came out of her breeze this morning with heat in her ankles and she has ankle chips. She\'s obviously out of action for awhile.
Tough tough game.
Like our host says...\"There\'s always a reason\" they go bad when they run that fast
It all depends on whether they get the workout in.
Sorry to hear it-sounds like the best decision...
Easy for me to say and I\'m sure connections and horse naturally want to run but if the he can\'t train on a Friday , the following Monday is going to be too soon imo - and I\'m basing this opinion on common sense only - I\'m not a Vet .
Personally I\'d like to see Quality Road get a break , let the quarter heel while fattening up in a pasture somewhere then see him again prepping in the late summer or early fall for the BC and Nad Al Sheba after that . . .
At this stage I would say even if they get a workout into him, he\'s a toss unless the public overdoes it and let\'s him go off much longer than expected. He\'s going to miss some training and that can\'t be a good thing.
Glad to see all the \"quarter crack\" experts on the board chiming in about Quality Road\'s hoof. I missed the public examination of the horse\'s hoof that everybody else got. I guess Ian McKinley missed it to, since when asked about whether the horse could still make the Derby \"I wouldn\'t know why not\".
There is a difference between a horse\'s status being \"in doubt\" and \"doubtful\".
Let\'s see how it plays out before we pencil him in for the Travers.....
If doesn\'t make it then that makes IWR without a doubt the Fav.
This also makes IEAH the owner of the Derby Fav TWO yrs inarow.
Probably gotta go back to the Calumet heyday before somebody owned TWO Derby winners inarow.
Riva Ridge and Secretariat 1972-1973
Oh God!!
Here come some more Big Brown to Secretariat comparisons.....arrrrg
Thanks for that - you nailed it alright ! Guess I want to be an expert at whats best for the sport and at planning a Horses future campaign from a standpoint of whats best for the horse and for racing . Yes we will definately see what happens next . . .
Ian McKinlay was on, via telephone, the Albany area OTB channel this morning around 11AM. He sounded optimistic about Quality Road. Quality Road jogged 2 miles today, he came out of the jog in good shape & will be patched tomorrow and a drain will be placed in, then breeze on Monday. McKinlay said the tenderness, which he described as minor, is subsiding every day. He said the foot is \"ice cold\", no infection has set in.
So how many of the regular Thorograph sheet guys are using this horse? How are you planning on using him?
for whatever it\'s worth, I am not going to use him.
Only because of race shapes. He will have to go around everyone given his running style which makes him 7 or 8 wide at least and running his 0 type number going 8 wide won\'t get him there.
Even if Zayat did give Gomez upfront money to ride POTN, if Dunkirk was a real freak that could overcome the race shape, Gomez would have stayed on.
I don\'t know what I\'m doing. Since I have him in futures pool 2, I\'m cashing if he recovers all the way & wins. I also am sitting on a Dunkirk/QR exacta box in pool 3 so I\'ll probably toss him next week & play around with p3s, tris, & supers with others-I want to see final works to see who I might be able to toss among my top 8. Right now here\'s what I\'m thinking after reviewing the Oaks/Derby package:
These are my contenders, in order of what # I projected them to run based on their sheets, some I\'ll toss for breeding, bad works,etc:
Quality Road-too iffy with the quarter crack, I\'ll be working around him with my futures as the insurance policy on him.
Dunkirk-I really like his last two races, but I\'m concerned that Gomez chose PTN. I don\'t think he\'s any worse than a pair of his Florida Derby, may even move forward. The 1st race # is a toss for me & I\'m not even considering it. He won by 5 in a slow race, where the 2nd horse came back with much better #s to win 2 in a row, possibly 3 after today.
Friesan Fire-I expect a continuation of his 3yo forward moving pattern. He has 4 straight races where he\'s improved and Jones has been a master of getting a peak performance in Louisville, even though he\'s faced better horses who were too fast for him to beat for the top spot.
Win Willy-Even though I projected him to run a similar # to his Rebel, I\'m probably going to toss him unless I go 6-7 deep for 3-4 spots. I can\'t see him in the exacta.
I Want Revenge-I projected him to bounce further from the Wood #, but if he keeps getting glowing reports from Churchill, I may reconsider.
Musket Man-I\'ve got him bouncing off the Illinois Derby & I haven\'t seen much encouraging news from Louisville.
Pioneerof the Nile-He\'s the horse who confuses me the most here. If Gomez had chosen Dunkirk, I\'d feel confident that he\'s too slow. However, here\'s some positive things I see-he just paired his top and figures to have a forward move in him. The big ? is how much. I do know he\'s beaten a ton of horses who have run back & won elsewhere. Right now he could be the class of the field. I\'m perplexed if class can overcome non-competitive sheet #s.
West Side Bernie-If he pairs he\'s dangerous, I\'m projecting a slight bounce.
Papa Clem-I\'m going bounce off the Ark Derby & only 3 weeks rest. See Gayego.
Square Eddie-His # isn\'t in the package, but I saw someone on another board have his Lexington as a rounded 6 on a matrix that rounded the last 3 race TG #s. Now the fact he paired a top # significantly faster in January gives me pause before I can eliminate him. Also, if PTN is the class, how much class do I give SE, who has already beaten him twice as a 2yo? I\'ll be watching the Welsh reports carefully on this guy.
Regal Ransom-His last race could have him sitting on an explosive move forward. He\'s really working well & Garcia sticks, unlike his stable mate\'s jockey who isn\'t making the trip.
My current top 5,without Quality Road, in order taking everything into account, not just the #s:
Friesan Fire
Dunkirk
Pioneerof the Nile
Regal Ransom
Square Eddie
I would like to know what McKinlay said about BB AT THE TIME.
One hour ago:
When Jerkens was asked how confident he was that Quality Road would be able to run in the Derby, he said, "The way things are going, I'm pretty confident. I\'m usually pretty negative, but the way he has responded (to treatment), from what Ian is saying, and the fact that there hasn't been any weight-bearing soreness, (makes me confident). (The quarter crack) shouldn't affect him at all if he comes out of the work without a problem."
Jerkens admitted that he was somewhat surprised by Quality Road's recent quarter cracks, since he never had any problems with his hooves before the Florida Derby. He said the colt has unusually small feet, \"especially for a horse of his size,\" but believes the cause of the problem is likely hereditary.
Quality Road? Small feet?
Curious if anyone here has anything to add regarding this - the synthetic to dirt issue is on everyone\'s plate, but all dirt tracks are not created equal, some horses have not liked CD - eg. Skip Away (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=4271)
I asked this question previously and was basically laughed off the board for asking it. It would seem to me, no matter how minor an impact something like this might be, the fact that it is indeed hard data would certainly mean it wouldn\'t hurt to know. Whether you choose to do anything with the data is up to the handicapper, but IF there really is some correlation here it would be nice to know if the data supports it.
What you mean is that Skip Away and some other horses haven\'t run well at CD. Not the same.
Then I stand corrected - still interested if anyone has comments, other than the obvious...\"we don\'t have quantifiable data, therefore it\'s irrelevant\". I\'ve already thought that one up.
\"How is the horse going to run today?\" A bounce can have many explanations.
Nice run by Mr. Fantasy. Like the tune played before the replay!
For what it\'s worth, some comments attributed to McKinlay last year regarding Big Brown\'s quarter crack issues...
Said McKinlay: \"Unless I make some boneheaded move this will be a walk in the park.\"– Dave Grenig DRF article on 5/25/08
"It's picture perfect," said McKinlay. "This was a minor, minor injury — on the scale of 1 to 10, this was maybe a 3. He was healed two days ago. Things couldn't be better. It's time for history." – Joe Drape article in the NY Times on 6/7/08
\"I\'ve been reading where people are saying they think this jeopardizes him, but that is absolute nonsense,\" said McKinlay. \"Big Brown has had just a slight, slight crack. Now he is perfect. The foot is cool. We have him exactly where we want him.\" – Ray Kerrison article in the NY Post 6/3/08
McKinlay said Quality Road's quarter crack was far less severe than the ones which affected Big Brown and Touch Gold.
"Compared to Big Brown, this is a nice picnic in Central Park," said McKinlay.– Paul Moran's blog 4/25/09
zapper, Hansel is another great horse that did not run well in the Derby,finishing 10th before winning @ pimlico and Belmont. Interestingly though, Hansel ran in the Jim Beam stakes at Turfway prior to the Derby. He smashed the track record @ 9f. Several other track records were set that day. The track was skimmed and hard and I believe this contributed to Hansel\'s poor Derby performance.
Fast forward to 2009. Florida Derby day,track records broken. Pletcher complains about the surface being hard and fast. QR ends up with quarter cracks shortly after the race. This is an interesting angle that has not been discussed much. Could Dunkirk also be affected by these track conditions?
I was curious if any horses had run back from that FD day? JoJo ran poorly at Kee at 4/1. Any other examples??
Sand - Hansel also ran away with the Lexington two weeks after his win in the Beam and two weeks before the Derby. An example, I\'d think, of a horse that had a reason not to run well at any track that day, not just at CD (such as Holy Bull in the Derby). But I\'m sure there are also examples of horses who figured to run well their first time at CD - Hollywood Wildcat in the BC might be an example - and didn\'t, perhaps because it is \"a funny old track\", as Eddie D said in the post-race interview that day.
But, yeah. All those fast races at GP are a concern re QR. Although, This One\'s for Phil ran pretty well today (with some trouble), and he ran a hard race on the FD card. Not sure about others running back from that particular day.
Nice horses we are breeding, that Mr. McKinlay, an artist who works with piano
wire and fiberglass, is a major player in 2 consecutive Derbies.
The danger in comparing Quality Road and Big Brown\'s Derby chances is that BB
(going into the race and retrospectively) did not face the depth of competition
that Quality Road will in 6 days. (my opinion). Another way of saying that is
that BB could have (and did) win the Derby while something less than fully
cranked; I do not think QR will have that luxury.
In an unrelated matter, a poster said they had a sentimental attachment to
Freisan Fire because they would like to see the Cowboy, Larry Jones, ride off
victorious into the sunset. My feeling on this is that LJ takes a short break,
and then returns as a private trainer responsible for a much smaller string,
maybe for an outfit such as Winstar, Godolphin/Darley or even the Iavarone
Exudes Amazing Hypocrisy stable.
Speaking of Sheik Mo, if his 2 runners in this years Derby fail to have an
impact, is it wrong to suggest that maybe he reevaluate Operation Desert Derby
Prep?
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Nice horses we are breeding, that Mr. McKinlay, an
> artist who works with piano
> wire and fiberglass, is a major player in 2
> consecutive Derbies.
>
> The danger in comparing Quality Road and Big
> Brown\'s Derby chances is that BB
> (going into the race and retrospectively) did not
> face the depth of competition
> that Quality Road will in 6 days. (my opinion).
> Another way of saying that is
> that BB could have (and did) win the Derby while
> something less than fully
> cranked; I do not think QR will have that luxury.
>
> In an unrelated matter, a poster said they had a
> sentimental attachment to
> Freisan Fire because they would like to see the
> Cowboy, Larry Jones, ride off
> victorious into the sunset. My feeling on this is
> that LJ takes a short break,
> and then returns as a private trainer responsible
> for a much smaller string,
> maybe for an outfit such as Winstar,
> Godolphin/Darley or even the Iavarone
> Exudes Amazing Hypocrisy stable.
>
> Speaking of Sheik Mo, if his 2 runners in this
> years Derby fail to have an
> impact, is it wrong to suggest that maybe he
> reevaluate Operation Desert Derby
> Prep?
RB just assume QR is fine and fully cranked. You point about this being a much much better field is spot on. So if BB was 2-1 then is 4-1 on QR a bargain? Doesnkt sound like one.
Larry Jones almost hinted he wouldn\'t be gone for long. A job with a Goldolphin has its plusses (plenty of good horses and I\'m sure pay) and its minuses (as soon as some get good they may be gone to Dubai).
Af far as Sheik Month changing his ways. Its his money and he can do what he wants with it.
So No
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Nice horses we are breeding, that Mr. McKinlay, an
> artist who works with piano
> wire and fiberglass, is a major player in 2
> consecutive Derbies.
>
> The danger in comparing Quality Road and Big
> Brown\'s Derby chances is that BB
> (going into the race and retrospectively) did not
> face the depth of competition
> that Quality Road will in 6 days. (my opinion).
> Another way of saying that is
> that BB could have (and did) win the Derby while
> something less than fully
> cranked; I do not think QR will have that luxury.
>
> In an unrelated matter, a poster said they had a
> sentimental attachment to
> Freisan Fire because they would like to see the
> Cowboy, Larry Jones, ride off
> victorious into the sunset. My feeling on this is
> that LJ takes a short break,
> and then returns as a private trainer responsible
> for a much smaller string,
> maybe for an outfit such as Winstar,
> Godolphin/Darley or even the Iavarone
> Exudes Amazing Hypocrisy stable.
>
> Speaking of Sheik Mo, if his 2 runners in this
> years Derby fail to have an
> impact, is it wrong to suggest that maybe he
> reevaluate Operation Desert Derby
> Prep?
RB just assume QR is fine and fully cranked. You point about this being a much much better field is spot on. So if BB was 2-1 then is 4-1 on QR a bargain? Doesnkt sound like one.
Larry Jones almost hinted he wouldn\'t be gone for long. A job with a Goldolphin has its plusses (plenty of good horses and I\'m sure pay) and its minuses (as soon as some get good they may be gone to Dubai).
Af far as Sheik MO changing his ways. Its his money and he can do what he wants with it.
So No
http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20090426/SPORTS08/90426004/Kentucky+Derby+hopeful+Quality+Road+bleeds+slightly+after+workout+
A very good point was made by a poster on Crist\'s blog in DRF last night.
If this was any race other than the Derby or maybe the BC, we would have
already heard the announcement from Jimmy Jerkens that QR would be getting
time for his hooves to heal.
For goodness sake! Turn this poor horse out for 2 months and bring him back for a fall campaign. My god. Of course it\'s going to shorten the other contenders by 2 to 3 clicks on the odds board but who cares? The right thing for the animal, in light of the EB tragedy and the dignity of the sport would be to stop on this guy.
Huh?
This appears to be a pretty minor thing by all accounts - one that is managed, and horses run with every day. You guys bet on these horses all the time, you just usually don\'t know it.
Since you\'re the king of the board when it comes to analyzing horse flesh Sight, I bow down to your command:-) Especially inSIGHTful was the \"you bet on these kind every day and just don\'t know it\" comment. Wouldn\'t play this guy with anyone\'s money however
\"Tomorrow will tell most of the tale,\" McKinlay said. \"If we got rid of the soreness, even if we had a tinge of blood tomorrow, I wouldn\'t be concerned.\"
You begin to get the feeling that McKinlay could say next, \"We sewed the leg back on, the scar tissue has hardened, and he should be just fine. I wouldn\'t be concerned\"
Hey, Buck, you\'re the apparent quarter-crack expert:
\"The right thing for the animal, in light of the EB tragedy and the dignity of the sport would be to stop on this guy.\"
Let me know if you get the animal abuse police to arrest Jerkins if he dares the PP draw.
You made your point SIGHT. Anything more is bitterness
sighthound Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Huh?
>
> This appears to be a pretty minor thing by all
> accounts - one that is managed, and horses run
> with every day. You guys bet on these horses all
> the time, you just usually don\'t know it.
Actually, Sight, with all due respect, I only bet on a 20 horse field in which none of the runners have ever proven themselves at the distance once a year.
Buck,
The Eight Belles comparison makes no sense. EB was not lame going into the Derby. Some thought she was \"over-raced\", but she certainly was not lame. It was a tragedy. And Quality Road has a quarter crack. Not a bowed tendon, or some serious injury. A quarter crack. Horses don\'t die from quarter cracks.
Jimmy Jerkens is on most experts top 3 list for NY trainers and is the son of a legend, who knew a thing or two about horses. McKinley is the best in the business, according to what you read. If these two decided that the horse can run and he works out well tomorrow, throw him out at your own risk. He and IWR are the fastest horses in the race period. On anybody\'s figures. We can decide not to bet them because they won\'t run their races in the Derby and/or won\'t get value, but if QR is in the gate, without a bar shoe on, I would expect him to run his race.
The last two times we had a Soap Opera scenario like this was Unbridleds Song and Empire Maker.
Both were dead-on-the-board in Friday wager and took tons of money on Saturday to go off Favored. And that would be tons of money for a Derby sized Pool.
We know how those two worked out Jimbo.
That\'s a far more important consideration, in my book, than the quarter crack issue.
Silver,
Empire Maker ran the best figure of any horse in the Derby. That doesn\'t win the money, finishing first does, but it certainly means the \"injury\" wasn\'t a factor. The fact he came back 5 weeks later and won at 1 1/2 miles further proved it wasn\'t a factor.
Unbridled Song had more problems than a quarter crack. He had to wear a bar shoe. Also, not a relevant comparison. (unless we QR wearing a bar shoe, which is why I put that out there in my post).
a simple quarter crack, by itself, is not enough to throw a horse out IMO. And it certainly isn\'t enough to start calling PETA and demanding the horse get 3 months off...
Yes, we do. US ran in a bar shoe for an animal abuser and EM ran the best figure of anyone in the race. Your point?
Jimbo. I was not comparing anything. I was simply trying to state that with millions watching on TV, animal right protesters outside the gate and a tragic breakdown just 12 short months ago, it seems to me that pushing a horse who has run fast enough to have negative long term soundness effects after two giant efforts doesn\'t seem like a wiee move to me. I fear nothing about this horse from a wagering perspective but I think if anyone other than the esteemed Jerkens camp was running this animal, say a Mike Ivarrone or Rick Porter, people would agree with me right now.
If you would like to wager $100 straight up on who finishes first undrer the wire - POTN or QR, I\'m more than game. This time of year you offer volumes of windy arguments, bordering on the side of an elitist, yet your Derby winnings don\'t match your words
Buck,
I wish you would re-read your words and take the emotion out of your response and think about it. Do you really believe what you are writing? You are drinking the proverbial \"sheets kool-aid\" if you believe that horses who have run fast in consecutive efforts are going to have \"long term\" soundness issues and therefore shouldn\'t run back before they take extended breaks.
1. Who gives a damn about the animal rights activists? The owner and trainer should not run their horse who MAY just have a minor quarter crack, because of them? Sorry, but that is dumb. It really is.
2. Jerkens hasn\'t made the decision yet. I think his credentials and reputation are such that if he makes the decision to run, the horse will run his race. But you can disagree and throw him out. We can all bet however we want, Some of us wil be right, some wrong.
\"\"
3. The elitist comment makes me laugh. Strictly \"hamburger\" kind of guy, no elitism at all.....
4. You are correct about my derby bets in recent years. I am no \"Chuckles the Clown\" (who apparently has hit 20 of the last 24 derbies, just ask him). I hit 3 in a row from Editor\'s Note to Silver Charm to Real Quiet and not a sniff since. (yes I am counting the Editor\'s Note pick as a win, since he was an entry with Grindstone)
BTW,
If Jerkens decides to run Quality Road, just email me about your bet. My emailaddress is not hidden. I will take the bet.
Going to start a new branch to try and get away from the soap opera above, but my question is more about quantifying how much training QR actually missed due to either one of these cracks. Obviously he has not missed any workouts, but I think we know for a fact he has missed entire days of jogs and gallops. Can anyone comment on how much has actually been missed since the Florida Derby? Are these daily jogs/gallops just as important as the workouts, or as long as he works out fine tomorrow and is able to gallop up to Derby day am I to understand people believe will he be fine and run his race?
My concern isn\'t so much that his ouchy feet will cause him to take a bad step or that a new crack might develop during the race, but more that he is going to be a short horse in the stretch no matter how good a job McKinlay does of patching up his feet.
1. Who gives a damn about the animal rights activists? The owner and trainer should not run their horse who MAY just have a minor quarter crack, because of them? Sorry, but that is dumb. It really is.
Buck,
The connections of this horse would never race him if they thought there was a remote chance of him breaking down from racing with a quarter crack.BB had to have 1/4 of his hoof packed and rebuilt last year and won the derby/preakness.QR new crack is not anywhere near as severe as the BB situation.Tomorrow tells the story,if he works fine without complications,oozing/bleeding, he\'ll run barring anything else this week.I\'d be shocked if he runs poorly JUST because of the quarter crack. I\'m wondering how much fitness he lost from those days he did not gallop/jog.
As Sight pointed out, there are quite a few horses racing with quarter cracks and winning their fair share.As an aside,in NY we are trying to get NYRA to list/announce all horses racing with quarter crack patches, not just bar shoes/aluminum pads.
Mike
Not all the horses jog every day. Look at the daily reports on the Derby horses & you\'ll see things like \"schooled in the paddock\" \"walked around the shed row\" \"jogged for the first time since xxx\" etc. I don\'t think it\'s a day of not jogging here or there that is the problem. I\'m more concerned with the fact that he may run at less than 100% in a race you need to be 100% for. Now add a wet track possibility to the mix & the Derby is becoming more chaotic by the hour.
He will be the 7/2 ML fav
Both you guys go and get all you can
Also name me ONE Derby winner with a quarter crack
My initial post was not to quantify how bad the injury but identify the \"fine line\" Jerkens had to walk. I did poorly.
Assuming Quality Road works solid and Tuesday morning he is deemed \"shippable\" which was the original plan. Now the compression of time kicks in. Wednesday, JJ would probably jog him as you do not want to gallop over a track you have never set foot on. Thursday and Friday gallops would then be OK.......... but that leaves little time for a paddock visit as the crowds grow.
Additionally, QR has had issues at the gate and that will also be a crowded area. I cannot fathom JJ not going to both the paddock and the gate and that is asking a lot with limited time.
Silver, there\'s a difference between saying that I\'m going to bet a vulnerable Derby favorite to win at 7/2 and pointing out the inanity of your arguments. One, I don\'t think I\'ve ever done. The other, these days it seems it\'s all I ever do.
Silver,
Quality Road seems unlikely to be 7-2. The over/under is probably 5-1 on him with the news about the quarter crack. Questioning his value at 5-1 is certainly a legitimate question. I am not saying he is the \"value play\" in this Derby, just saying that a comparison to Unbridled Song and Empire Maker is a bit flawed. Also a fair question as to who has won the derby with a quarter crack. How many horses before the \"informaton age\" had quarter cracks and the public didn\'t know it? Hard to say.
If I wasn\'t already invested in Quality Road at 14-1, I would be saying that he is a tough horse to bet ON at 5-1 because of potential conditioning issues around the quarter crack and the fact that he MAY have regressed a little bit in the Florida Derby, but that he is a tough harse to bet against with any confidence. He is \"co-fastest\" and he and IWR are significantly faster than the rest of the field. Additionally, he has a solid 2 year old figure and with the five weeks of rest he has a shot to run back to his top, which would make him a very likely winner.
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Also name me ONE Derby winner with a quarter crack
Arguably the most influential Derby winner in the last 50 years had quarter
crack problems during his Triple Crown campaign.
After his Derby win, he won the Preakness. This Eclipse Award winning 3YO
\"prepped\" for the Derby by winning the Flamingo,the Florida Derby and the Blue
Grass Stakes. Thats when a sport was a sport.
This colt went on to have a career as a stallion which will likely never be
equaled, even though he was only bred 40 - 50 times per year.
>
> ...He is \"co-fastest\" and he
> and IWR are significantly faster than the rest of
> the field. Additionally, he has a solid 2 year
> old figure and with the five weeks of rest he has
> a shot to run back to his top, which would make
> him a very likely winner.
I don\'t see it that way. The track was speed favoring in the Florida Derby, which I believe aided QR\'s number. Similarly, the Gotham was speed favoring, which aided IWR\'s number. OTOH, Dunkirk ran nearly as fast and closed into the speed favoring track against the bias. No way am I betting QR on top with the quarter cracks, but I may have to use him underneath. Like you, I also have QR covered in pool #2, so I will just have to let him beat me. I am looking forward to hearing from JB on Wednesday in the seminar. I can\'t see QR getting lower than 6:1 with the quarter cracks.
Of the two, QR seemed much more comfortable than Dunkirk (to my eyes, anyway) in the paddock and at the gate of the FD. QR really looked all business, while Dunkirk looked a tad hot in the paddock, and I think had to be put in the gate twice. (but my memory might be off on that).
Number858
Quality Road\'s top was not earned in the Florida Derby. It was in the previous race. Do you want to taint that number with the same \"speed favoring\" sticker?
As for IWR. Did you happen to catch the Withers yesterday? Mr. Fantasy dusted a small but talented group rather easily. This would be the same Mr. Fantasy that was on the lead setting the fractions on the \"speed favoring\" Gotham, but was absolutely crushed by I Want Revenge.
If you want to say that neither Quality Road or I Want Revenge will run their \"top\" in the Derby, i can\'t argue too much with that (although I would disagree). But to say that they are not the two fastest horses in the race is just saying something that defies any logic. All the figuremakers are in agreement that these two are the fastest and it isn\'t that close. They have run negative 3.5 on TG. The next fastest is a 0.
Richie,
Don\'t be a tease! Please tell us!!
His groom also became quite famous
I am not saying IWR and QR are not the fastest. They clearly are. I am really saying that maybe they won\'t run their top in the Derby due to various circumstances like post position, trips, slop, etc. I think that Dunkirk is capable of winning because he ran nearly as fast, but on a track that didn\'t favor his running style. A $3.7 million colt that has run fast over dirt is obviously talented and can win under the right circumstances.
Jimbo,
I had a brain fart...Disregard last post... wrong groom !
Northern Dancer.
I googled \"Northern Dancer hoof problems\" and one of the results is a Google Books preview of a bio of EP Taylor. The book says ND had a quarter crack prior to the Remsen (as a 2yo, obvs), but still ran in and won the Remsen (with the crack still present !!!). After the Remsen, they found a vet who had a new way of \"patching\" cracks (so that you didn\'t have to turn them out for months on end and let it heal naturally). They patched him, and, within a month or so, he started that string of graded victories Richiebee listed, culminating in the Derby victory. He also won the Preakness, but was denied the Triple Crown by Quadrangle.
Good detective work, BB.
Speaking of books and Northern Dancer, \"The Kingmaker\" by Avalyn Hunter is very
good.
Reading this book one learns how Charlie Whittingham, fresh out of the Marines,
got a lot of his training experience by being an assistant to Horatio Luro; it
was a combination of learning from Luro and also having to run the stable when
Luro\'s social schedule prevented him from being in the barn in the morning.
Hunter also retells an oft told story of how the assignation which resulted in
the great runner/stallion Nijinsky could only be accomplished when they dug a
pit for Flaming Page to stand in so the famously short- statured ND could
properly mount her and take care of business.
All in all, a very good retelling of the story of the thoroughbred who, more
than any other, changed the landscape of Racing in the latter half of the 20th
Century.
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> He will be the 7/2 ML fav
>
>
> Both you guys go and get all you can
>
> Also name me ONE Derby winner with a quarter crack
Didn\'t Big Brown win the derby last year with a quarter crack or two? Isn\'t that the farrier/hoofman-to-the-stars claim-to-fame job?
I believe Big Brown had a quarter crack a little earlier in the prep season, then it healed up for the Derby, and then it came back before the Belmont. Could be wrong but that is my recollection. It was still a factor for people who wanted to throw him out... HP
HP,
BB had 3 quarter cracks,2 before the Belmont which were growing out/had grown out.QR has to handle the interruptions and the cracks but maybe his superior talent to 18 of these will allow him to overcome.
Update; he\'s out!
Mike