Glad to see the discussion heating up and covering a lot of interesting angles such as 2YO \'foundation,\' patterns, surface switches, pace scenario, etc.
I know I am using a different product but from what I have seen from the posts here there do not appear to be too many gargantuan differences in the numbers for the top contenders.
This is what I am looking at right now in terms of approaching the race:
The three \'fast\' horses: IWR, QR, and Dunkirk
These three are notably faster in their 3 y.o. tops and in fact both their past two races, than virtually every other potential entrant. The question is the likelihood of each horse to either fire one of those tops or potentially move forward. If any of these three do that then you your winner comes from this group, barring a freak (e.g., POTN pulling an IWR).
In terms of the patterns I tend to agree with TGJB and others that IWR\'s pattern is cause for concern. Forget whether his numbers were artificially depressed by synthetics, the huge top he ran in the Gotham is a knockout number for a young 3 y.o. and I would be very surprised if he is able to run anywhere near it on Derby Day. The comments on his works are interesting in that those that want to bet against him focus on the negative aspects whereas his fans will look at the positives. Mullins is one of those trainers who gets his horses to pop lots of big numbers but has not shown the ability to point a horse to a race and get him to fire the big number on that day. Given that he is almost sure to be the favorite i think he is worth taking a stand against.
Quality Road has done nothing wrong and on Rag paired his top number in the FD. I am not a huge fan of the pattern and the pair-up is a slight negative (as is the quarter crack) but I think he is less suspect than IWR. Tough call. Wide range of outcomes with this one.
Dunkirk is a also mystery. The huge jump in his second start should have caused a reaction but it didn\'t. He moved forward a bit. Pletcher is a bit like Mullins in that he rarely has shown that he can get his horses to fire on the big day, but DK\'s pattern is a little like BB\'s (though BB was stronger with a big route # in the fall as a 2 y.o.). Of the three I think he is most likely to run a good number but I would not be shocked if any or all of these three run poorly.
POTN is a very interesting horse to me. He has a nice 2 y.o. foundation and a pattern that screams big new top sometime in the next 6-8 weeks. But he\'ll need to run a new top to win, assuming that one or more of the 3 fast horses runs to their level. He is an unknown on dirt but given his breeding and his apparently nice work yesterday I don\'t think there is a strong reason to think that he would go backward on the dirt. I was not crazy with the way he has pulled during the middle stages of his last couple of races, though he had not done that previously so I am a little confused as to whether or not this is a concern for Derby Day.
I have no idea what to do with Friesan Fire. Pattern is fine. Last race number competitive though a significant top. Seven weeks and lack of 9f race are negatives but Jones has gotten horses to run will in TC races before. Complete mystery with a slightly negative slant.
Most of the rest of the horses are just a relatively slow bunch that figure to run within a two point range that could hit the super but unlikely to win. West Side Bernie is a little faster but breeding is suspect. Same for Musket Man. The Lukas horse FP is a little intriguing, as is Zito\'s JAC.
The two Dubai horses look like easy tosses. Just too slow, though i think they will both be heavily involved in the early pace.
Speaking of pace, where is it? Trip will be so important here and getting one\'s horse into position by the 5/16 is going to be critical. Tough to know how that\'s going to shake out ahead of time but I do agree that horses like QR and FF deserve some increase in their chances to win because they will be in position and won\'t likely have to fight thru traffic.
As far as betting the race, this is definitely a race that could see a huge price winning if the 3 fig horses don\'t fire and POTN doesn\'t jump up -- a la the Giacomo year.
I don\'t think it is a great \'Win\' betting race (because I don\'t think any of the big price horses look particularly explosive), so I will be concentrating on the Super. The key for me is finding a key horse or two and then building a ticket around him/them. It is still not clear who is actually entering so the peripheral horses that I will throw in are not clear but I think I will likely toss IWR, at least from the first two spots. The key to the Derby Super is not to get too clever because just a couple long-ish shots makes for a huge payout, even if favorites are in the top two.
David-- notice you didn\'t put this up on Ragozin\'s board. I\'m glad you have realized that this is the place where the serious handicappers are and serious handicapping discusion takes place. Maybe someday you\'ll make the logical leap.
Tis true on the first point, Jerry. I will post on Ragozin but this was where I figured we\'d get better discussion.
Good stuff here David. I think I have WAY too much time to look at this race. Now that McLaughlin horse is bothering me a little.
I have a more positive view of IWR. I will have to make up my mind as we go on QR. I\'m down on Dunkirk. I think Friesan Fire will be a fair price and value all the way. Still up in the air on a few others that are in the 0-1 range but the thing is, none of them look like they are sitting on a forward move.
Good luck. HP
That is the problem HP.
When it is the Derby you know a few of these guys that don\'t look like much will fire. Some guys have a better history of it and there are some who have none at all that may be good enough to take down the whole damn pot.
My line:
IWR: 5-1
QR: 5-1
POTN: 8-1
DK: 9-1
FF; 13-1
Everyone else 15-1 or higher.
David G Patent Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The key for me is
> finding a key horse or two and then building a
> ticket around him/them. It is still not clear who
> is actually entering so the peripheral horses that
> I will throw in are not clear but I think I will
> likely toss IWR, at least from the first two
> spots. The key to the Derby Super is not to get
> too clever because just a couple long-ish shots
> makes for a huge payout, even if favorites are in
> the top two.
While I agree that the Super is one good way to go, and I think we have a pretty good idea what the morning lines will look like at present, I would think that pick 3, Pick 4 is also a good way to go. I struggle to build a good Super ticket in a situation like this that won\'t be the same as everyone else.
Charm,
The more I look at it the more I keep coming back to the two FD horses. Almost always it is the fastest horses going in that win the Derby. I don\'t have any big reason to pick QR or DK to regress and their numbers, while fast, have been repeatable in past derbies.
I think it\'s fair to project that there is about a 2/3 chance that the winner is one of the \'top 5\'. So my ML would be something like:
QR 4:1
DK 9:2
POTN 8:1
IWR: 10:1
FF 12:1
Others that have some measurable shot:
WSB: 15:1
Papa Clem: 20:1
Mr. Hot Stuff: 20:1
That gives about 18% for the other 12 horses. Subject to tweaking but this feels roughly right for how I am looking at each horse.
For the record, I do not think it is important whether IWR reacted mildly or significantly in the Wood -- I don\'t think you can make a credible case that he paired or moved forward (or would have but for the slow start, traffic, etc.). The Gotham number was the knockout and I think a significant reaction from that race is likely in the Derby -- especially as he is asked to run 10f for the first time.
\"The Gotham number was the knockout and I think a significant reaction from that race is likely in the Derby\"
...yeah, IWR looked \"knocked out\" in the Wood and even more so this morning at CD as he galloped like a wild horse.
David
I\'m a thoro user, but I have the rags, Win willy and Musket Man fit in your numbers equation too. Why not them?
David we pretty much agree except for flip floping IWR and DK in the odds.
Maybe DK isn\'t that long but he does not have a resume better than Curlin who had three starts, two stakes wins and a much faster maiden base to remove some concerns on a big jump effort.
There are lot of people in the stand who bet who do not look at sheets. Unless IWR is looking really poor at CD right now, with two consecutive BIG wins in the NY Stakes he will be one of the favorites.
And since one of the hrose who beat him twice is POTN trained by a three time Derby winner in BB those same types people are going to be betting him too.
Beside those of us using Sheets are not betting to Win we are playing Tris and Supers right?
HP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Good stuff here David. I think I have WAY too
> much time to look at this race. Now that
> McLaughlin horse is bothering me a little.
Be not bothered HP- assuming you meant Charitable Man? I was looking at him too for a piece- he declared out of the race last Friday. Pointing to the Peter Pan.
Thanks Dudley!
Rich,
I can\'t bet Musket Man because of the amount of development from his 2 y.o. top but mainly because of the sprint top and bottom breeding. Yes, I know he was able to run a top at 1 1/8 miles but I don\'t think I have ever gone wrong throwing out that kind of breeding on Derby Day.
Win Willy is a peripheral horse. The two 4.25s to me are the best he\'s going to fire for awhile and he is likely to bounce. He has also developed significantly from his 2 y.o. top.
Now at 80:1 WW is probably going to have a spot in my supers, and I might toss MM in there too. I don\'t think this is a juicy Win betting race at all. Complete pass for me but there is almost always value in the Super.
David - How do you see Papa Clem and West Side Bernie?
HP
David-fwiw MM meets the dosage index cutoff of 4.0
MUSKET MAN DP = 5-1-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 1.10 - 6 Starts, 5 Wins, 0 Places, 1 Shows Career Earnings: $572,600
He\'s actually one I like for the tri-super ticket. The price should be juicy on this dual derby winner! lol I like his intangibles too- toughness in traffic, willing to run on. And further fwiw, trainer said he should float over CD as he\'s been in that deep Tampa track.
David-- you\'re pushing your luck here, as usual. You want to say who you like on Ragozin and discuss the race and the horses in general terms you can, but have the specific numbers discussions on the little league site. I don\'t want the conversation here to get any more complicated than it has to. (Aside from which, how long do you think even a post like your first discussing the race on TG would last on their board)?
When you first posted yesterday I was about to leave, and didn\'t have time for a long answer. You are dead wrong-- as Miff has said all year, and as I know now that I have seen Ragozin\'s data, there are some extremely large differences. In some cases it clearly makes a difference in how one views the individual horses, in some it does not.
Jerry,
The only time I mentioned a specific number was in response to a question from one of your posters, so apologies.
As for your question, I am not sure why you would even ask that of me.
If there are big differences that affect how one perceives a horses likely chance to win, then great. You should be able to exploit that. I didn\'t read anything in the posts here that indicated that, at least for the top contenders, but if so. . . .
PC is marginal to me. Likely to bounce and needs to run or beat top to be competitive.
WSB looks fine and potentially explosive but I\'m not crazy about the breeding and that \'x\' he ran at TP is puzzling. Since I have him at around 20:1 I don\'t think he\'ll be any value.
BTW on MM the dosage may be fine but virtually every horse entered nowadays qualifies yet look at how many can\'t get the distance. Since he won the IL Derby I don\'t think he\'ll be a big enough price.
All are usable in the super, however!
Knock it off, David, stop being cute. Nobody asked you for a number, they asked for an analysis of a horse. I do ROTW almost every week and since it will often also be published in Thoroughbred Daily News and be read by non-sheet reading civilians, I somehow manage to discuss every horse and yet almost never mention a specific figure. So I\'m pretty sure it can be done.
In this case it would have been really tough, though. But I think I know how you could have done it-- \"He would need a new top, and since he\'s already developed a lot already, I think that\'s very unlikely\". That do it?
Very helpful. Thanks.
I am sticking by these numbers. IWR apparently looked good in flesh and on the track today. He overcame a lot of adversity in his last and sometimes the Derby is about overcoming adversity. In the Gotham he headed a frontrunner in a pretty pace battle.
I am a Dunkirk fan but gambling is a risk reward proposition. The Derby with its 20 horse field is a high Beta race. Horses odds need to correlate with what they have accomplished not what they one day might.