(Ok, we know I was NUTS to start with, but. . .) I realize I\'ve been touting the slowest horse of all the major contenders in POTN - he\'s slowest on Byers, T-G\'s, Rags, and Brisnet (I don\'t know of any other rankings, but I\'m sure he\'s slow there, too). BUT I have a theory about this horse and I\'m sticking with it; I might be full of crap as has often been the case, but as I read these posts I want to laugh or cry about some of them.
It\'s not just all about numbers!
I realize none of this would exist without sheets, but please if I have to read one more time about how IWR regressed in the Wood I\'m going to lose it.
How can you say he regressed when he spotted the field five lengths at the start and cruised through them like it was a morning workout? IWR is not my top pick, but I\'m just saying - do you guys have eyes?
Lastly, about POTN, he ran on a FAKE track - you can\'t tell anything about how accurate his numbers might be from the Pro-Ride Santa Anita strip - Hollywood, yes, but Pro Ride no.
Do you all realize how biased and wildly fluctuating that crap is to run on - how the hell (apologies to JB) is anyone going to tell me you can get a real accurate gauge on his performances? The track has only been around for a short time anyway, and it\'s a hundred times worse than any dirt biases they used to have out there. When it\'s hot, when it\'s cold, when it rains, when it\'s dry - the surface is always changing and almost always f-ed up!
I can tell you this for a fact, POTN did not like it at all in his last two starts - he hated it, really - yet he still performed professionally enough for me to believe he has a huge top coming when he gets on real dirt. He\'s bread for the mile and a quarter (more than most), he\'s doing super physically, he\'s got the best trainer, and probably the best big race jockey, and he \'s not going to be the favorite - maybe third or fourth choice in the wagering (another scream coming when I hear there\'s no value in POTN - it\'s the freaking Derby - no value? exactas? supers?) Please help me. . .
Any other comparisons aside -- am I the only one, that, when he sees \"POTN\", thinks \"PYRO\"?
(As in, the horse that doesn\'t seem to have any shot at all...but some just can\'t let him go?)
Dana,
In terms of the regression for IWR in the Wood, everyone said the same thing about Big Brown in last year\'s Preakness. Because BB suppossedly didn\'t expend any energy, there\'s no way it could have been a regression. In my opinion, that\'s not the way it works.
Maybe think about it this way. How many young 3 year olds have paired 3 negative numbers in the last 10 years? I think it\'s been 2. Smarty and BB (in the Fla and KY Derby). Is it more likely that IWR did something that only 2 out of 300,00 thoroughbreds have done in the last 10 years or is it more likely that he reacted like 99.9% of the rest of them?
Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Any other comparisons aside -- am I the only one,
> that, when he sees \"POTN\", thinks \"PYRO\"?
>
> (As in, the horse that doesn\'t seem to have any
> shot at all...but some just can\'t let him go?)
Well that\'s a new one. POTN has been called Colonel John, Giacomo, and now Pyro. Monba can\'t be far behind. Lol!
This debate will rage on until next...well I don\'t know. At this point if you\'re on POTN or if your off, outside of the PP draw, there probably won\'t be a statistic/percentage that will come up over the next 10 days to change your mind.
Think the point that some make is valid in that IWR never had a chance to run a faster fig as a result of trip. Maybe that will allow him to run one more big one before going back. The fig was a regression for IWR, the performance was not,same with Rachel Alexandra who \"regressed\" to a TG 3 3/4 under a hammerlock the last 1/8th. How\'d she do next out?
Mike
Look, Dana-- you\'ve been posting here for a while. Your posts have nothing to do with figures and demonstrate no knowledge of them. Which is fine, I have no problem with you being here. But that\'s what this site is basically about, so you can\'t be too surprised when they form the basis for analysis here.
You are free to adjust POTN or IWR\'s figures for other variables if you want to (or not to use figures at all). But we measure just the things that can be measured. In the case of IWR, we mark the OP, and I personally upgrade the figure 1 1/2 points. I have found it\'s not a great idea to take that kind of thinking any farther. Thinking a horse may move up on a certain surface is different than upgrading a past race.
Covelj,
That is an example of making the numbers tell a lie! No offense intended.
How many three year olds have run negative 3\'s in routes the last 10 years? Less than 10 would be my guess.
2 paired up. That is 20%. Not 2 in 300,000.
A horse has to have the talent to run a negative 3 before we talk about pairing it up. I Want Revenge has the talent.
Actually, as I think about it, I would bet there are not even 10 three year olds that ran negative 3\'s in route preps of their 3 year old season. It may only be 5.
Mike,
Big difference between rebounding from a .25 negative compared to a 3.75 negative. Lots of horses have recovered quickly from a slight negative, very few from a 3.75 negative.
The way I think about it is that it doesn\'t matter what number you run after coming back so quickly from a huge effort, its the fact that you come back so quickly period. Whether you move foard, pair, x or off, you are in trouble if you don\'t take the time to recover from the first big one.
Jimbo,
good point, well taken
On a seperate note, we should get a few interesting reads this weekend from Mullins\' horse in the Derby Trial as to whether a Mullins runer can translate good form to KY. He\'s also the horse that IWR breezed with yesterday.
Also, Just a Coincidence in the Withers could flatter both IWR and West Side Bernie with a big effort, albeit around one turn.
Covelj,
The point Miff makes about Rachel Alexandra is a valid comparison. The 0 for a 3-year old filly is probably similar to the negative 3 for a 3 year old colt (in terms of relative effort - no male chauvinism intended).
RA had the huge effort. Came back on short rest and \"reacted\" as you would say (while under a hammerlock). But then right back to the 0 on relatively short rest again (under a tighter hammerlock).
Her spacing was no better than I Want Revenge\'s will be.
\"The way I think about it is that it doesn\'t matter what number you run after coming back so quickly from a huge effort, its the fact that you come back so quickly period. Whether you move foard, pair, x or off, you are in trouble if you don\'t take the time to recover from the first big one\"
Cov,
That theory suggest that EVERY single horse is of equal resiliency with the same recuperative power.I don\'t think thats remotely possible.
Mike
Jimbo-- her top was a whole lot better than IWR\'s, even before adjusting for her being a filly. (And on that note, our legal filing to try and get me paid what I\'m owed for advising her purchase goes in tomorrow).
Covello-- if that Zito horse doesn\'t bounce next time out it will be a news story.
Mike,
Fair points as well but if I ammended to say \"in almost all of the cases, it doesn\'t matter what number you run after coming back too quicky....\" then I would be in the clear.
Maybe IWR is a total freak and he will be the rare one that can come right back and run the big one again. I have said this before, if he does it, I will be the loudest in proclaiming his greatest and I will take my hat off to him (and cash 10k worth of futures tickets) but I will be betting against that happening next Sat.
jack72906 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> At this point if you\'re on POTN or if your
> off, outside of the PP draw, there probably won\'t
> be a statistic/percentage that will come up over
> the next 10 days to change your mind.
Since I have POTN ranked anywhere from 9th to 13th on the list of Derby contenders (depending on whose goes), yeah, I\'d say you\'re right.
Too many good horses have to either run terrible races at the wrong time, or not improve an inch, for POTN to win -- even if he does improve on dirt, which isn\'t a given.
I\'m giving him about a 5% chance of winning, max.
Cov,
Back to basics. Next Sat 19 of these are going to lose for one reason or another. IWR cannot never be dismissed becasue he\'s run faster than 18 of them. Is he a great play at a relative short price, of course not. Making assumptions based SOLELY on pattern reads or various theories is a slippery slope,imo.If it was that easy,then more than 3% of the players would be beating the game.
Without going into the reasons why, I think that IWR will more likely than not run well.His last 2 races, while fast, were not gut wrenchers imo. I think those synth races legged him up and he\'s a new horse on dirt. He showed up 5 times as a 2yr old so I\'m kinda thinking he\'s resilient and sound.
Mike
Mike,
that\'s what makes this game so awesome. We are seeing the puzzle differently and both get a chance to see how well we put it together next Sat. Awesome game and best time of the year for it.
Thanks for the thoughts
TGJB
Good luck with your legal filing.
Rachel Alexandra\'s top was on dirt. I Want Revenge\'s \"top\" was on synthetic. As you have admitted, the synthetic figures are compacted on synthetics. Comparing those \"tops\" is a slippery slope. Your call on how you proceed down that slope. I am not.
This horse already beat, IWR twice, Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy and Mr.Hot Stuff. Four wins in a row and by Empire Maker, we will see.
Well, to be fair, I wouldn\'t disagree in any way with your second paragraph, but what are you going to do - agree with me about Pro-Ride and thus pretty much invalidate your product and source of income? Not too many people would do that, but if you\'re honestly telling me that the figures (T-G\'s or Rags for that matter) given out on Pro-Ride are any bit as accurate or reliable as figures on dirt based on variants, patterns, formulas, etc. that have been established for decades -- well, I can\'t imagine you could honestly believe that. That surface changes so often it is sick and no data is reliable or repeatable -- at least not so soon after it has been installed at only one track in the entire country.
As far as my having no knowledge of figures that\'s your opinion and you\'re certainly welcome to it, but I\'ve been using T-g\'s and Rags for about 20 years (and for years before that I made my own figures). I\'d be the first to say I did much better when California tracks were dirt - the artifical surfaces have been challenging from my point of view to say the least, and you are correct and perceptive that figures are in no way my number one gauge as to how I view a horse - in Cali or anywhere else for that matter, but more likely one piece (an often useful one at that) in a puzzle that I try to solve in each race. My eyes and my knowledge of the way horses move and the body language they display while moving is what I primarily trust, and I\'ve been around horses since I was a little kid, not inside a room making numbers under fluorescent lights but on a farm working with real live animals -- animals that have moods and thoughts and fears and good days and bad days -- and animals that don\'t read sheets. I\'ve more often praised your groundbreaking work rather than criticized it, but if I had to trust my eyes or my opinion over a number somebody makes, I\'ll take my opinion. All I\'d ever need do to make my point is read the Throrograph analysis for California tracks, for example, to say again and again whoever does that analysis has very little if any useful knowledge of the breed or how to predict what they\'re going to do - esp. on a surface like Pro-Ride. It\'s laughable some of the horses they (not saying you do it, but it\'s based only on your numbers, right?) come up with.
Not only that, the dam is out of Lord at War(arg), Who did nice work at a distance (1985 santa anita handicap winner) and was also the dam sire to Kentucky Derby winner War Emblem. I do not see any reason why the horse wouldn\'t run on dirt.
I\'m not touching the fast enough issue.
Eoin Harty has proven with Well Armed that he is Mr. Move Up going synthetic to dirt. I believe that Mr. Hot Stuff will run a new top in the Derby. Will it be enough to win? We shall see. My money says this horse hits the trifecta, despite the low speed figures for his ProRide races for which Beyer and the sheet producers all struggle.
\"Thinking a horse may move up on a certain surface is different than upgrading a past race\".
Would you consider a horse that\'s been performing solely on synth more suited
to a turf course or a sea of slop?Of course without having knowledge of its
foot or actual feedback from its connections disclosing its lack of propensity
for the slop.
respectfully,
mjs
King T. Leatherbury, Third Winningest Trainer of All Time:
\"Everyone who succeeds in this game has to be a good handicapper, whether it\'s as a trainer, owner, jockey, agent or horseplayer. THORO-GRAPH is the most important data source I have when it comes to buying a horse or managing it, or for my own betting.\"
Shug McGaughey, Trainer of Champions Easy Goer and Personal Ensign:
\"THORO-GRAPH lets me know the ability and chart the progress of every horse in my barn, as well as keep track of the competition.\"
John Forbes, Winner of Three Consecutive Meadowlands Training Titles:
\"I can\'t imagine anybody who is going to come to the races and bet, trying to do so without THORO-GRAPH figures in conjunction with the Racing Form - I just can\'t imagine that you could have any success without them.\"
Leading Trainer Bobby Frankel:
\"THORO-GRAPH measures exactly how well horses have performed in the past by factoring in variables not included in other speed figures. Then they put every horse\'s figures on its own graph, which lets me know at a glance where each one is in its own form cycle.\"
Daily Racing Form, February 13, 1989:
\"He (Mike Sedlacek) was one of the very first horsemen here to use Jerry Brown\'s THORO-GRAPH service, the speed figure sheets that are now almost de rigeur with \'serious\' horseplayers and horsemen.\"
the Las Vegas Review Journal:
\"Unlike any other method of rating horses, THORO-GRAPH is the only one I\'ve ever known to be endorsed by so many trainers, which, by itself, makes it unique.\"
Is it fair to say these people are very familiar with horses moods and the
way they travel and such?More than fair to say at least one of them grew up
round horse flesh.
da comers n da goers
the games brought down the line
the facts the figures will he get there in time
agonizing the brain drenched in sweat
they been there n they done that
many decades success n bet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Before you automatically toss POTN, their have been instances of California horses outperforming their numbers when shipping east. This has happened before synthetics were implemented, and has been discussed before. I\'m not saying POTN will win, relax Monmouth Guy, but to dismiss POTN because of slower synthetic figures is questionable.
Everyone wants to point to Colonel John as the poster horse for California horses being outgunned in the Derby. They perform better than a lot of you think.
Is it fair to say any of them got paid for their endorsements?
He certainly is a beautiful animal, and he galloped out super in the SA Derby a race he had no shot in whatsoever regarding the bias and pace of the race that day. Your prediction wouldn\'t surprise me at all.
PS - your post still doesn\'t speak to my original point of the choas invoked by the Pro-Ride at SA (and remember the cement cushion before that?) and how it is very diificult to get a real gauge of what those numbers mean. You guys don\'t get it and you don\'t know as many people as I do who went broke playing Santa Anita over he last two years. I\'ll stop posting for a while now, I promise.
would that be the same Harty that trained Mr. Hot Stuff\'s brother Col John who ran the the exact figure on the Dirt in last year\'s Derby that he did on the synthetics?
Dana666,
You really make some good arguments and I agree that in no way can you say IWR actually regressed last race. That is for people that look at an end number and didnt see the race. But as for POTN here are some things to consider.
- Superstar trainer Bill Mott felt this horse was better suited for turf.
- Current trainer Bob B. would of barely sniffed the derby this decade if not for a horse that was purchased weeks before the derby. He hasnt had ne thing serious since they started different testing.
- All of these questions about will he handle dirt. Why didnt his connections race him on dirt? Mullins tested his horse. I cant think of anything dumber than a trainer having a tough horse and not doing everything they can to prepare it for Louisville. This implies to me that there is some doubt there.
- Highest beyer is a 96
- While IWR jumped way up on dirt he was at a point in his training where big moves arent that unusual. He also didnt run in a major stakes in october and was not as far along.
- Does anyone really beleive that after the RBLewis race that IWR would not of crushed POTN on any surface?
- Has pulled in the last two races. A repeat of this in the Derby would guarantee a bottom 10 finish.
-Talk about poor competition Potn last two races were awful. This can be confirmed if CC runs poor in the derby and I think he will.
- In the Santa Anita derby the 4 furlong fraction was 48.70. Yuck.
This is a tough race and I am going long with IWR in my mix. Good luck.
Pizza this is a good post about two key horses in the race - IWR and POTN.
What you\'ve made me think of is...if IWR\'s last race figure is a product of the bad start, etc. and not a real regression...that is actually more of a negative for the Derby because that makes TWO real blowout races in a row, which would increase his chance of reacting/bouncing. That said he\'s still tough to toss completely, and \"going long with IWR in the mix\" sounds like a plan.
Your points on Baffert are excellent, unless Baffert believes that going on the Pro-Ride will really leg the horse up for the dirt. POTN has to improve at least three lengths to get in the picture here and will be tough to take against horses with longer odds that have already run faster. Still not an easy toss, but I\'m leaning that way... It would be funny if ChocoCandy was the big Pro-Ride/dirt move up at a longer price, especially given all the yakking about POTN, CC actually has a slightly faster top!
HP
Am I the only one having a problem with the figures for the Wood. Beyer, Bris, and TG have both WSB and JaC running lifetime tops. THe figure on WSB is particularly bothersome since that number makes him a slight contender at a big price? The flip side is if the timing was off then IWR bounced more than we are led to believe.
There were a lot of similar comments about the TG numbers given to the Wood runners last year, specifically Tale of Ekati, Court Vision and Anak Nakal.
There was a pretty good discussion about the Wood since TG had the 2008 Wood way faster than Beyer did. As a result, certain folks in here used Take of Ekati, who at 43-1 was one of the biggest overlays on the board (especially considering that his stablemate Big Truck who had no chance was 25-1), to add value to the superfecta.
There was no way to use ToE based on his Wood Beyer.
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,42221,42258#msg-42258
Jimbo-- Cushion is effectively dirt. Personally, I think there were other reasons for the dramatic improvement.
Not one of those people or anyone else has ever been paid to endorse TG. We have given free data to people who endorsed us, but obviously, it wouldn\'t be a good deal for them if they didn\'t believe what they were saying.
Most famous opening of a TG seminar ever, at GP a few years ago:
\"Hi everybody, I\'m Vic Stauffer, track announcer here at Gulfstream. Today is Florida Derby Day, our busiest day of the year, and there are a million things I would rather be doing than stand up here talking to you people. But I get these things free, and I want to continue to\".
\"Foot\"-- you\'re a Maryland guy. Boy, would I like to have that info on the sheet.
The answer is it depends on the synth. Cushion = dirt, Pro-Ride = turf, Poly and the others range somewhere in between, depending on the track. It\'s a mess.
Dana-- there is absolutely no problem in making figures over Pro-Ride-- that\'s an entirely different issue than figuring out who will handle it first time over it. Yes, synthetic tracks change speed more than dirt tracks-- that\'s exactly why you need figures.
I actually don\'t know how the guys doing the handicapping for SA have been doing, I\'ll try to find out when Alan comes in. I do know a) there are guys absolutely killing that place using our figures (one of them posts on this board occasionally), and b) that Roger Neubauer, with the modest assistance of yours truly, won the Santa Anita handicapping contest this year, after doing the same in the Hollywood contest last year (one Pro-Ride, one Cushion).
If I had a dollar for every time I heard someone say that you can\'t have as good an opinion just using data as someone who knows the physical horse... up to about 1995. If there is one opinion in this game that has been thoroughly discredited, it is that one. No-one is saying that using accurate performance figures is the only thing that matters, but it is by far the most important one. As I have said here many times, the single most important handicapping decision you make is what data to use.
Direct and honest, how refreshing!
Superstar trainer Bill Mott also kept Cigar on turf for two years.
Hard to make a definitive call on Pioneer of the Nile and feel good about it. I would bet dollars to donuts that TGJB tosses him in the seminar because he is too slow and breeding suggests he won\'t move up the way IWR did (and others).
The truth is that none of us know how he will handle dirt. Educated guesses, yep. POTN has drawn more attention on this board than any other horse, which is kind of ironic since he is one of the absolute slowest on Thorograph and this is a thorograph board. Since none of us know he will handle the dirt, There are some POTN lovers out there and some POTN haters and those people with hard opinions aren\'t going to change. But I would say that if you don\'t have a steadfast opinion on this horse, you just have to let the odds guide your decision. What is fair value for a horse that looks way too slow on TG, too slow on Beyers and about \"average\" on Rags. YOu get a top triple crown trainer and a jockey that many say is the best or at least in the discussion. But the horse has to run on the dirt for the first time and get faster to win, on anybody\'s numbers. 5-1 is way too short IMHO. 10-1 is a little short for my taste, but I wouldn\'t argue with anybody who thought it was \"fair\". 15-1 seems about right to me and I don\'t think you get anywhere near that price. I thought he would be 9-1 or so, but based on the workouts and press he is getting, 6-1 would be how I set the line right now. It just doesn\'t seem like fair value to me.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hard to make a definitive call on Pioneer of the
> Nile and feel good about it. I would bet dollars
> to donuts that TGJB tosses him in the seminar
> because he is too slow and breeding suggests he
> won\'t move up the way IWR did (and others).
I\'ve made my decision on him jimbo. I will play POTN undnerneath in the exotics out of respect for a)the unknown- dirt, shipping, Derby madness and b) the known- his Graded Stakes Class, Baffy, and Bloodlines. If he wins- I lose. I can live with that.
I have him pegged at around 8:1 as fair price, so count me as slightly more bullish on him than many on this board but no way he is a Win bet on Derby Day. He\'ll be on my Super tickets, though!
I really didn\'t know it was a \"Maryland\" thing,but yes a marylander I am.Back in
the hey-days there was a big cigar(both man and cigar)smoking jock agent who\'d
come back from the paddock with the data.A bit naive I was to it all,but considering the data cruncher in wait of the \"foot\" results,in retrospect I\'ve
learned the value of the endorsement.A \"mess\" is pretty much the same feedback
I\'ve felt from good company.
Thanks,
mjs
The cigar smoking jock agent was Joe Monahan, one of our original trackmen, and one of the great racetrack characters. They don\'t make\'em like that any more.
Small world.Al Del always had a smile when talking about the man who had his
book.
All good points! I was wondering about many of the things you bring up. The \"pulling\" is of issue - like everything else w/this horse you could read it different ways - the pace was really slow in those races and the track speed biased, so Go-Go had to let him run earlier than he wanted thus explaining why he seemed a bit uncomfortable at times and out of his game. The fact that his maiden race was 2 turns on grass doesn\'t scream triple crown type either though I could take a positive view that they sent the horse to Baffert b/c he showed some promise, but also you could say that he\'s a grass horse and since Pro-Ride plays something like grass, and the comp. is usually weaker out there, why not try the SA races, and even if he flops in the derby you can always run on grass later and look how much he\'s earned already - even though its Zayat - it\'s still a lot of money - this really is a tough read. As far as baffert, he has figured out the synthetic surfaces as best he could and has done much better in the last 6 months say than he had for a few years; his barn seems to be on an upswing. If you put any stock in CD workouts, POTN supposedly worked terrific yesterday and looked fine over the slop on Monday. We\'ll all know for sure around 6:15 Pm on May 2end! My saver is to box all the California horses in exotics - Mr Hot Stuff, POTN, IWR, Papa Clem, and CC -- there\'s some value in that equation however you slice it - just a theory that the east coast horses are over-rated this year - we\'ll see. Freisan Fire is the wild card I suppose, but I can\'t take a horse off such a long layoff - not for me going a mile and quarter. The Dubai horses will need to prove it to me that they can compete in the Derby, so far that route hasn\'t paid off - but there\'s always a first time. Good luck to all - I\'m getting weary with this discussion now. Hope I didn\'t offend Jerry - I didn\'t mean too. Thought I had a legit question - doesn\'t really matter I guess - in my book whoever cashes had the best opinion.
Vic still mentions TG figs when discussing a race on TVG from time to time
He better.
I caught a very quick closeup glimpse of Mine That Birds foot during the Preakness show (didnt tape it).
Looked Slop ++.
Of course, he\'s already shown he can run on anything, but it sure didn\'t hurt Derby Day.
Boscar,
\"Weather-wise, it would certainly have caused an issue for us, with the rain,\" said trainer Chris Block. \"We probably would have leaned toward scratching.\"
From DRF.com
Scratch from the Derby? Giant Oak must have some paddles on him?Been knocking down the morning poles since late april.Hope the M/l accidentally drifts
back to the home team.Thoughts?
mjs