After quickly glancing over the Derby contender sheets, I\'m wondering why Pioneer of the Nile can\'t make the same jump up that IWR did when he got off poly and onto dirt. Choc Candy too for that matter. Seems more than possible to me. If either of them do make that same jump up, it\'s game over IMO
Sure, they can. But, but the race is shaping to favor the different running styles of IWR and QR, who will be much closer to the front, probably off a very manageable pace. POTN\'s trainer thinks he\'s more of a turfer, which makes the move up less likely. And of course we know how fast IWR and QR are on the dirt - we don\'t need to guess.
So, the question isn\'t if they can, it\'s is it worth the bet? If POTN is 9-1 and QR 6-1, I\'m thinking probably not. CC at 15-1? Maybe, as people who seem to know say his pedigree says a move up is more probable.
So you\'re saying Baffert said POTN is a turfer? Where did he say that? I missed it. POTN\'s last drill wasn\'t very turfer-like. I smell a big forward move from both he and CC. We will see. I\'d like to see a link to the Baffert quote if you can find it. Thanks
Buck,
It wasn\'t Baffert, it was Billy Mott, who trained the horse last year.
Baffert drills all his horses fast. If you liked POTN before the workout, then so be it, but I would not let a fast workout from a Baffert trainee influence you, especially when the workout is on the same synthetic surface that he has been running on and not dirt.
This handicapper would be very surprised by a move up from POTN. Mott is a solid horseman and wanted this guy on turf. Baffert has run him 3 times on poly and not tried the dirt. I am not much for visual handicapping (because I have no eye for it), but I have read several experts say this horse has not developed at all physically from 2 to 3 and his figures support that claim. POTN off the board in the derby.
Chocolate Candy might be a different story. Based on breeding, he appears a better candidate for a move-up on dirt.
Interesting that GG\'s agent is taking so long to decide between Dunkirk and POTN. Now that Dunkirk is obviously going to get in, I would have expected a decision. Hard to say whether the indecision is a sign that POTN is better than some of us think or that GG is not as high on Dunkirk as some of us are.
Jimbo good point but I would expect a decision fairly soon.
Gomez has no reason to rush but it is really Baffert and Co who are hoping and waiting.
Jimbo one more thing.
POTN has put more money in Gomez pocket than Dunkirk. And the owner has put a bundle into the game.
A pound of loyalty can get a ton of respect......
The race shape is going to favor those close to the pace, therefore CC is the bet.......HUH
Dunkirk has a workout scheduled for this weekend, POTN might have one too, I\'m not sure of that. I\'m thinking he just wants to wait until the weekend works are out of the way so that if something goes wrong in the workout he\'s not giving up 2 horses and is left with none. I think he\'ll pick Dunkirk if his workout confirms his fitness.
Jon White of HRTV has already said that POTN is as likely a Triple Crown winner as we\'ve seen in recent years. That\'s high praise, and Jon is a smart guy. He will run well on dirt, I am confident of that. My gut says that Gomez rides POTN. We\'ll find out this weekend, I guess.
No, of the two, POTN and CC, CC is the better bet because
a) his pedigree says move-up is more likely
b) he will be longer odds
Given the expected race shape and the lack of speed shown (relatively speaking), I wouldn\'t play either at similar odds as IWR and QR. But CC should be a significantly better value (POTN won\'t be) - and that makes betting on a big move-up from CC something to consider.
Hope that clears it up.
\"Interesting that GG\'s agent is taking so long to decide between Dunkirk and POTN. Now that Dunkirk is obviously going to get in, I would have expected a decision. Hard to say whether the indecision is a sign that POTN is better than some of us think or that GG is not as high on Dunkirk as some of us are\"
...also, since any horse can spoil overnight, they are waiting as long as they can in case one goes bad.
Mike
That\'s what an industry guy said on the Horse Racing Radio Network live show this morning.
Also said Alan Garcia rides Desert Party and Regal Ransom\'s skipping Derby and going to the Preakness.
Has not yet been confirmed, so maybe take with a grain of salt...
Maybe he got his Derby package. When I look at the 2 sheets I can\'t see how he could not pick Dunkirk. First off Dunkirk has run significantly faster than Pioneerof the Nile. Then for those hoping for a big move up on dirt, you better look at the TGIs for Empire Maker. Although Empire Maker has a 4 point better win percentage on dirt over poly with a 9 point better ITM % on dirt, his TGI is better on synthetics than dirt, off tracks & turf. If the TGI is a good indication, do not expect a move up on dirt for POTN.
None of this comes as a surprise.
Gomez waited on the Dunkirk work today-59.90
Godolphin always viewed Desert Party as the better of the two and more suited for 10 f\'s.
Time to start digging for horses to run underneath Quality Road if he works solid next week.
So who does Zayat and Baffy put up on POTN? Victor Espinosa please
Rumor has it Robby Albarado.
What am I missing? No Ramon Dominguez??
All reports are that he is thriving these days, looking better than he has ever looked before and maturing beautifully! I think he\'ll be so much better with a few horses in front of him and a legit pace. He has always shown himself to be a racehorse of superior class. Has Gomez made his decision yet? That might be the final factor. If Gomez opts off, I\'d be surprised. We\'ll see. Always loved him though and remember the numbers on poly/synthetic mean very little.
Looking good and developing between 2 and 3 are two different things.
Old Fashioned \"looked good\" physically too, but didn\'t develop a lick between last year and this year.
POTN and all his phony paced races on pro-ride-crap mask his entire form, at least as it relates to his chances to win the Kentucky Derby on dirt.
Take a guess. That is all it is. With no dirt form to speak of, it really is a guess. The \"clues\" are ready differently by different people. The things I see point me to think poly/turf horse who hasn\'t gotten any better from 2 to 3 and is about 5% to win the Derby.
This looks like bogus information on both fronts.
It is all over the wires that GG and Anderson will make their choice tomorrow.
It is also all over the wires that the connections of the Dubai horses won\'t decide until after next weekend\'s workouts.
It is still 3-5 that GG picks Dunkirk, but let\'s wait for rumor to be fact!!
This \"As the Gomez Derby Mount Turns\" is stupid. TVG has been advertising all day that they will be the exclusive network of the \"Announcement\" tomorrow at Noon Eastern. Who cares! He\'s a great jock but he doesn\'t have a Derby win and frankly his fall-out-and-make-one-big-move rides are all too predictable. It took him like 8 days to catch on that the move wasn\'t working at Keeneland all too well early in the meet. Worked today but that track is so quirky.
I want him to ride Dunkirk. Sweetens the pot on POTN. After careful consideration, I think Calvin Bo-Rail would be the perfect jock for POTN. I don\'t think Baffy would use him though. Would Desormeaux get off HMB for this mount?
Buck,
Publicity is good for the game. And, while GG\'s decision doesn\'t guarantee anything, it is at least interesting and may matter.
Your criticism of GG isn\'t warranted. Maybe you have had some bad experiences with betting him, but most people in the game and those that bet it seriously, would want him on their horse, period.
While I have often read that \"jockeys are the worst handicappers\", I don\'t find that true. I would be willing to bet that when a good jockey has a choice of two horses for a race, and has ridden them both, the one he picks outfinishes the other more than 50 percent of the time.
GG picking Dunkirk doesn\'t tell me much, in that it is the safe move, taking the dirt horse, for a trainer who you rider more often more. However, if by some chance GG does pick POTN, I really have to take a stronger look at POTN and even more importantly I drop Dunkirk quite a bit on my own list.
OK Jimbro. You get the last word. Fine. I just truly can\'t remember such hullabaloo surrounding ONE jock\'s Derby mount and it warranting TV coverage. I like Gomez but do consider him one dimensional. Had he been in So-Cal in the 70s-early 90s he would have been just another jock.
Here is my breakdown for the win spot:
Dunkirk has never won a stakes race and does not have the running style to win.
Pioneer: I had no problem tossing Colonel John last year. Same goes here.
TGJB or TGAB,
Toppled brings up a point about Empire Maker\'s TGI Dirt/Synth #s that has me wondering.
It often seems that sires who I think of as having more of a \'dirt\' pedigree (A.P. Indy, FuPeg, Unbridled\'s Song) have better TGI averages on Synth than on Dirt. Is it possible that these averages are distorted by the fact(?) that the TG numbers on Synth tend to be more tightly compressed? For example, maybe a sire is throwing some really fast dirt runners, and a lot of really mediocre synth runners, but since his progeny\'s dirt numbers are more \"spread out\", (i.e. a lot of poor dirt numbers) relative to their synth numbers, the Dirt average is lower?
Am I making some faulty assumptions here?
Please advise, as many of us will be debating what to make of POTN\'s TG pedigree figures in the coming two weeks.
Thanks.
HRTV\'s gonna scoop TVG on this on...Ron Anderson is supposed to be on their set in CA this morning \"a little bit before noon ET\" to annouce who Garrett is riding. Makes me laugh a little.
Take a guess!? Yeah, welcome to the wild and wonderful world of synthetic surfaces! My point exactly is he could jump forward on dirt - I don\'t trust #\'s on synthetic tracks anyway, they don\'t mean that much. Or I should say they mean much more going from dirt to synthetic than vice-versa. All I can say is he\'s a classy horse with many gears! He was a dead closer and Baffert worked speed into him as evidenced in the Cash Call Futurity (that\'s the key race of the campaign along with the Fla derby) - that race really showed me something that this was a horse to be reckoned with. He\'s healthy and doing great and he will run a new top in the derby, I feel very sure of that. Will it be enough? Maybe not, but I think there will be so much speed, a mid-pack stalker will do very well. Just look at IWR and how well he did moving to dirt - well, as I pointed out, Pioneer looked him square in the eye and said, \"you aint passing me buddy, no way brother\". We\'ll see in a few weeks.
Things can not be going any better for this horse.
First he lands Gomez for the ride. The hottest jock alive.
Second he galloped over CD slop today like he was on a jet ski.
Third Baffert will be a confirmed Hall of Fame inductee.
This might be the Kharma horse.
Silver,
Only problem is that you could have said almost all of this about Col John last year.
Had Gomez in the irons, HUGE work on the Churchill surface that had everyone buzzing and too many sheet players (including yours truly) just assumed that he would jump up first time dirt off the poly because his figures weren\'t fast enough. Also, he had a pedigree that seemed like it was more suited to dirt than POTN does.
Funny thing happened though, gates, opened up, he hated the dirt getting kicked in his face and he fought gomez all the way around the first turn putting himself in a horrible position that he couldn\'t overcome.
He made the huge move to get into contention at the top of the stretch but ultimately wound up pairing up his (too slow) figure.
Baffert should be better than Harty in getting them ready but how can we take 6 or 7 or whatever to 1 on a horse that looks exactly like the one that flimped so badly with so many similarities last year?
You beat me to it Cove.
Two minutes later on the Summer Bird thread.
hah, this is too funny....now you are carrying my 200lbs on your back...no good for you :)
Well I like Quality Road on top pending the next 10 days.
If we come up with the same under stuff-we might both be in trouble.
I thought Gomez rode Court Vision for Zayat and Col John wound up with Nakatani who tried the patented 6 wide Santa Anita synth move around the far turn and flattened out immediately.
Otherwise, I agree completely with the analysis/comparison.
I have a hard time POTN, will win the race. He is a very nice horse, but slower horses usually don\'t win the derby. Giacomo, won the race, because IMO, the race fell apart like I don\'t think I\'ve ever seen. If he wins, congrats to the connections.. The two big horses, Revenge and Quality really lay over this field. Doesn\'t mean I will bet them, but I\'m having a hard time trying to key anything else in the top spot... West Side Bernie ran his but of in the Wood and he is likely going to be on my tickets, 2nd and third. He clearly didn\'t like polly and I actually bet him in the Wood.. Friesan Fire is interesting, but 7 weeks and his last was in the slop and is I guess, if he would have run a better race on a dry track.. But the trainer does have ways to get horses ready for stakes races..
>Also, he had a pedigree that seemed like it was more suited to dirt than POTN does.
Where does it say that? His sire Empire Maker was second in the Derby and won the Belmont. His dam was a freak for about three races at CD of all places. I beleive won the LaTroienne Derby Week.
If you guys are so smart then why is Ron Anderson so stupid???
What are you talking about Silver?
Last year, GG chose the slow plodder Court Vision over the likely second choice Colonel John.
Do you think that this is because Anderson thought Court Vision had a better chance to win, or do you think Anderson reminded Garrett where his bread is buttered.
Court Vision and PoTN = Zayat.
Court Vision + Gomez = IEAH
Silver,
I don\'t think anybody said Ron Anderson is stupid. The fact is that I don\'t think that many on this board, yourself included, were predicting that GG would take POTN over Dunkirk. As for the breeding comment, I am no expert, but Empire Maker, despite his own prowess on dirt, seems to be throwing better synthetic runners and grass runners (according to the \"breeding handicappers\").
I am certainly not on the \"inside\" of this game, but it would seem to me that when it comes to choosing their derby mounts, the top jockeys go with what they believe will give them the best chance to win. Loyalty would be the \"tiebreaker\". I think the innuendo on this board about GG being paid money by the Arabs to choose POTN is pure malarkey. How much would you have to pay a jockey that has never won the derby to get off a good derby mount? And with the margin so little between one top jockey and another (GG vs Prado), why would anybody make that kind of bribe.
If Anderson uses Rags, as some suggested, POTN looks better than he does on TG. He has a TG equivalent of a \"1\" for his 2 year old top and one point of development this year with a forward looking pattern. Dunkirk looks about the same on Rags as he does on TG, so it was likely a tough call for Anderson and Gomez. They went with the horse with the foundation and the four Grade 1 wins as opposed to the horse without a stakes win but SLIGHTLY better figures.
Or, perhaps they know something about how Dunkirk is working out. But let\'s discount the bribe of tons of money and 40 virgins to ride POTN.....
the poster boy for poly to dirt flops? Didn\'t he put that to rest by winning the Mid-Summer Derby? I know he worked fast at CD but it seemed pretty obvious he was spinning his wheels in the sand at CD. Other than the Triple Crown races, CJ won the biggest DIRT race for 3YO\'s in the world.
I think CJ\'s performance in the Travers should reflect positively on POTN and his chances in the Derby,not negatively as most of you are implying.
Jimbo only three days ago you were posting about how \"experienced observers\" noticed that POTN has not developed physically at all since his two year old season.
Now he is being chosen because he has such a great foundation
Which one is it?
Also only 40 Virgins? I heard 69....
Silver,
The points aren\'t mutually exclusive. POTN\'s two year old foundation is not really debatable. He had a number of solid races and a Grade 1 win. That doesn\'t mean he developed from 2 to 3.
I would not have chosen the horse and I am negative on his chances. In that last post I am playing devil\'s advocate and espousing on why Anderson/Gomez chose him.
As for the \"experienced horsemen\" comment, no big secret. I read a piece written by one of the DRF writers and then Brad Thomas commented on his lack of physical development during his Saturday night thoroughbred update on the Meadowlands harness show. As I said though, not my observation, as I have no eye for horse flesh.
First of all, I am definitely not smart so let\'s start there, if I was, I would have given this game up along time ago.
Second, POTN is by a lord at ware mare. That\'s why Mott started him on the turf and why Mott commented some time ago that he thought he moved better on the turf and poly than on the dirt.
The Arabs? Zayat\'s a Jersey resident. Bribe? Why is paying a jockey to ride your horse a bribe? Happens every weekend in our sport. Nothing wrong with it, is there? It\'s not like he chose a outsider over a mortal lock anyway. He chose one contender over another contender.
a few thoughts on this:
1) it\'s an example of how not all horses move up going syn to dirt like is widely being expected for POTN. Col John ran a 3 in his last syn race pre derby and a 3 in the derby. The 1 he ran in the Travers represented natural development
2) I actually think what Col John accomplished in the Travers is a perfect example of why it\'s so dangerous to try dirt for the first time in a 20 horse field going a distance that none of them have ever gone before. There are already enough new variables thrown at these horses in the Derby. Having one additional variable of dirt kicked in the face for the first time isn\'t a good idea. Col John handled the dirt alot better in his second try. Arguably, Papa Clem did the same in the Ark Derby (although there are other explanations possible for his big figure improvement as well with the slop)
Only a super horse could handle all of the new variables including first time dirt and still win this race and I am willing to play against POTN being a superhorse at 6-7 to 1.
If he wins, no one will be more impressed than me but he will have to beat me at low odds when there are so many other interesting candidates
Quality Road is going to be the toughest of all of the favs to leave off my ticket so I want to see his post and final work and then see him in the flesh for myself down at CD but....
....Haskin\'s comments today that no horse has ever won the Derby with only 4 lifetime starts reminded me that this horse doesn\'t have alot of foundation.
I know Big Brown did it with only 3 last year but he was a freak against weak competition. Why do I want to take 4-1 on a horse that would be doing something for the first time ever?
also, he did bounce pretty good in the Fla Derby and showed signs (i.e. weight loss) that the big effort took alot out of him so, at 4-1, I am willing to bet that he won\'t get there.
Tough call but that\'s how I am leaning unless he knocks me over physically next week.
How does this analysis reflect on Colonel John\'s full brother Mr. Hot Stuff, who apparently is going to make the field? I\'m not sure what his TG figures are- haven\'t bought the sheets yet, but will. I have a Vegas future book bet on this guy at 75-1. I regret I couldn\'t get him at 96-1 in Pool 3, thank you TwinSpires.com for denying me the opportunity.
In my opinion, Col John\'s Travers fig still wouldn\'t have been competitive last May at Churchill. (Maybe it moves him from 6th to 4th assuming all other horses run the same figs with the same trips). The improvement was likely due to the fact that he was a more mature horse in August. He still wasn\'t fast.
\"The Arabs? Zayat\'s a Jersey resident. Bribe? Why is paying a jockey to ride your horse a bribe? Happens every weekend in our sport. Nothing wrong with it, is there? It\'s not like he chose a outsider over a mortal lock anyway. He chose one contender over another contender\"
Frank,
Very Correct. On occasion,when Jerry Bailey was thought to be God(he wasn\'t), he received either more than the normal 10% or a \"bonus\" just to ride a certain mount.I think that money had little to do with the selection of POTN.In NY there are all sorts of money figs being tossed around re Anderson/Gomez/Zayat.
My read is that they saw more negatives in Dunkirk for reasons we may never know.It still makes no sense to me that they would choose a slower horse that may not be able to stand up on dirt over one they rode in a fast/impressive performance.
Mike
I think Mr. Hot Stuff, like Col John, will be better as he gets older. He hasn\'t run fast enough yet and a huge jump forward isn\'t likely.
However, there is NOTHING wrong with him at 75-1. I can poke all kinds of holes in horses in this derby at 5-1 so no reason to go overboard on the negatives of a horse at 75-1.
Good luck.
Cove-
We had a Derby winner in 2002 out of a Lord at War mare. Same trainer, too, sort of.
Also, I remember a horse that Bill Mott had that he also initially thought was more suited for turf - Cigar.
Which is not to discount your reasons for going against POTN at 8-1, but I don\'t know if these are the two you want to hang your hat on.
totally fair comment about Billy, he thinks all of the horses are better on turf. He trained one for me that he thought \"looked better on turf\" and when I asked him if he had brezzed her on the turf yet, he said \"no, I just think she will be better there\"
That\'s just his natural bias and who am I to question what he thinks/says/does, the dude is a Hall of Famer and I am a poor fat guy trying to figure out which favs to toss out of the Derby.
thanks for the thoughts
POTN has a pretty fast half brother Forefathers(Gone West)who is much better on dirt(had one turf try)
Mike
Cove -
I\'m very high on POTN (and yes, I bought the special), so I\'m interested in hearing different voices. But his pedigree looks solid to me, for reasons I, and others, have already stated.
And lots of folks are making the Colonel John comparison, which is valid, but only to a certain extent, I think. Last spring, lots of horses were coming east from Cali (Tiago, Zenyatta, Gayego, Intangaroo, etc.), some having never run on dirt, and winning big races. Colonel John, of course, did not add his name to that list. But he lost because he wasn\'t fast enough, not because of the surface switch. So don\'t you think it\'s a bit too early to establish that a horse going first time dirt will not win the Derby?
All that being said, I know that he looks way too slow on the Figs!
Miff - Excellent point on Forefathers - I forgot about that. He ran a -0.5 at 3, and a -1.5 at 4, both routes (not sure if they were 1 or 2 turn races, though)
All that being said, I know that he looks way too slow on the Figs!
....yes, but they are only synth figs,so we need to guess how fast he can run on dirt, as if there aren\'t enough factors already.
Mike
I am interested in this because by my count there are six other horses in here that are faster than Pioneer of the Nile that stand a chance and will be much longer prices. Not to say that these six horses don\'t have some holes as well, but the holes don\'t include \"not fast enough,\" which definitely applies to POTN. We\'ll see how the tote goes...
Pioneerof the Nile takes to the Churchill dirt
By Mike Welsch - Posted 12:36 pm
On a busy morning when five potential Derby starters trained at Churchill Downs, including possible favorite I Want Revenge, DRF clocker Mike Welsch tabs Pioneer of the Nile for his work of the day and believes he will have no problem handling conventional dirt.
I would have to agree. I am stunned at the attention for POTN. Just because Papa Clem and IWR have done well after switching from synth is no guarantee he will. Throw in the fact that he is yet to run fast enough and you have a complete throwout here. Never run on dirt and not fast enough, hmmmm, sounds like a 50-1 horse. The less then 10-1 you will get is a crime.
Pizzalove,
The \"not fast enough\" comment is irrelevant. THis is NOT the problem. If I had a dollar for every synthetic horse that was not fast enough on TG figures, to win a dirt race, and then they won the dirt race, I would be pretty well off. The question is simply can he run on dirt? That\'s it. And what are the clues?
Covelj,
I retract my comment about your odds line being \"way off\" when you talked about Pioneer of the Nile being 5-1 in the Derby. As I read one glowing workout report after another, and I then read about I Want Revenge had another mediocre workout and Quality Road is at Belmont \'recovering from the quarter crack\", you may very well be right. Pioneer of the Nile might go off 2nd choice here.
Welsch from the DRF has got a very good eye for workouts, as least IMO. The fact that he is now saying that he has no doubt that POTN will run at least as well on dirt as he did on synthetic is a very interesting statement.
Jimbo,
Certainly not necessary to offer the retraction but very thoughtful of you. You\'re alot of fun to do this with. Thanks
I put alot of stock in these workouts and physical appearance and the fact that some of the other favroties (i.e. IWR and Choc Candy) don\'t seem to be doing as well and POTN seems to be thriving at CD is definitely reason for me to take notice.
As has been stated here previously by a thoughtful poster, there\'s no reason to throw out every favorite as one of the top few will hit the board somewhere and so if I can throw out IWR, CC, Dunkirk then I can fit POTN, QR and FF in there somewhere on my ticket along with the ones I really like and still make it affordable. I don\'t think POTN, QR and FF will win but I can hedge just a bit with them since I am feeling more confident throwing the other top choices out.
Jimbo,
My mistake. I meant to say his Beyers are too slow to contend here. it is also my belief that quite often you can bet horses moving to synth from dirt even with very poor dirt form. But to me the reverse is far less likely. POTN does much worse than even Col John did and finishes 15th. I know a couple horses this year on the Derby trail have improved form on dirt. But not likely to happen again especially when you have run so many races on one surface. Col John also was all the rage during workouts.
Not sure if this will end up being significant or not, but since it has not been mentioned yet, last years horses coming from SA were going cushion to dirt and this year it is an entirely different synthetic surface. Maybe it makes a didfference, maybe not. This, in addition to the running styles of Col. John and POTN, makes it dangerous IMO to compare POTN to Col. John, but this isn\'t to say the same result may not be possible.