Apologies if alot of this has been covered in other threads as I was traveling for the last few days.
The closer we get to this Derby, the more wide open it looks to me. Most lists have the same 5 or 6 horses at the top and I think pretty strong cases can be made against all of them, at least for the win spot. It could well be that the winner is the 7th betting choice or higher.
Below are my knocks against each of the top 6. Please note there are certainly things to like about each of them as well, I am only highlighting the issues here that I think makes them play against if the odds shake out consistent with where they are now.
1) I Want Revenge - The knock here is obivious, he\'s headed in the wrong direction. This is the same argument around Big Brown after last year\'s Preakness. Just like BB\'s Preakness win, IWR\'s Wood was visually very impressive which masks the fact that the numbers suggest the big gotham took alot out of the horse and he won the wood while bouncing and he will bounce even farther and harder in the derby. (full disclosure that I have a 10-1 pool 2 futures bet on him which will cover my derby wagers so I am even more inclined to throw him out given that insurance policy)
2) Quality Road - The quarter crack and the same bounce issue as IWR. I love the horse but he did go in the wrong direction in the Fla Derby which I would have been more willing to try to overlook if not for the foot issue. They are now trying to baby him into the Derby with an easy breeze last weekend and only 1 more scheduled breeze (I think I read that, someone please correct me if I am wrong). Anyway, unless he puts up a huge work between now and the Derby, he\'s a throwout as a horse that hasn\'t been able to train agressively with only 1 two turn race as a prep.
3) Dunkirk - looks good on the sheet figs/pattern (the best of anyone I believe on the pure numbers/pattern) but he was so wasted after the Fla Derby and he couldn\'t get past Quality Road in the Stretch. Plus, he will have to go very wide coming from way back and there is no longer any kind of speed dual scenario to set up closers like there might have been before Pamplemouse and Old Fashioned got hurt. Don\'t like him on top, maybe for a piece underneath, ala Curlin.
4) Friesan Fire - anothoer one with obvious knocks, 7 week layoff, no prep beyond 1 1/16th and hasn\'t ever run a very fast number. Also, 25 days between race and first work back. Lots to dislike here at single digit odds.
5) Pioneer of the Nile - never been on the dirt, his first trainer has publicly said that he moves better on the poly and turf than on the dirt, he has never run fast enough and he his jockey seems like he is passing on him to get on another mount. No thanks for me. Reminds me too much of Col John last year. If he works big at CD, he will be 5 or 6 to 1 which is terrible value.
6) Chocolate Candy - my pick for this year\'s wise guy horse. Hasn\'t run fast enough to win this and will be coming from out of it with little pace to close into. No thanks for me here either.
To me, horses like Papa Clem, Regal Ransom and Desert Party all look just as interesting as the top 6 but will be much much better prices. Each of these 3 has knocks against them as well but I should be getting at least 20 to 1 on these as opposed to single digits on the top 6.
One thing to keep in mind is that every derby winner since Smarty has posted a monster bullet work between their last prep and the Derby. No big work, not on my ticket. For the last two years, each of the top 2 have fit that bill. Given how these horses are babied into the races now, I think we need that big work as a baromoter of who is fit enough to do it.
Thoughts?
Jim-- I disagree with a few specifics (including one very important one), but that is one excellent analysis, Jimbo-esque. One of these years I\'m going to farm out the seminar to you two guys.
Keep in mind that some outfits NEVER work their horses fast, and still get big races, even off layoffs. An interesting question would be, have any horses that were reportedly NOT training well run well?
Isn\'t the problem here that you have to have two things happen - you need the favorites, especially IWR and QR, to regress, AND you need these others to move up significantly?.
Looking at some of the figs, the 2nd-tier can post new tops, and still lose to the top 2. At the very least, I can\'t see both of them falling out of the super.
very valid point but they don\'t have to fall out of the super to make this thing incredibly juicy.
Say you have 15-1, over 20-1, over 7-2, over 20-1? would you take that?
also for the derby/oaks double, etc, I just need them out of the top spot.
Some pre Derby works that I found without digging too deep:
Big Brown May 1 3f 35.2B (bullet) 1/19 works
Street Sense May 1 5f 101B 5/22 works, Apr 24 5fB 59.0 (bullet)1/36 works Barbaro Apr 29 4f B 46.0 (bullet) 1/69 works
Monarchos 4f 48.4 B 6/26 works
Fu Peg 6f 1:14.3 6f B 3/6 works
Charismatic Apr 26 5f (sy) 1:02.4B 12/27 works
Grindstone Apr 27 6f 1:14 B (bullet) 1/15 works
Three recent, three ancient. It\'s obvious that last work prior to the Derby on the Churchill surface has changed over the last dozen years or so.
I \"think\" 18 winners in the last 29 years had a bullet work in their final workout prior to the Derby on the Churchill surface.
I\'m guessing Larry Jones will Fire Friesan around the track in about 56.0 a couple days before the Derby.
thanks JB
I think the last horse who reportedly wasn\'t training well that ran a big one was Speightstown in the Breeders Cup Sprint at Lone Star to blow up my 5 figure pick 4 after I had singled Singetary in the turf mile!
Sorry, couldn\'t let that one go, too too painful, still wake up with nightmares.
Won\'t breed any of my mares to Speightstown because of this....I know idiotic... but true.
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Apologies if alot of this has been covered in
> other threads as I was traveling for the last few
> days.
>
> The closer we get to this Derby, the more wide
> open it looks to me. Most lists have the same 5
> or 6 horses at the top and I think pretty strong
> cases can be made against all of them, at least
> for the win spot. It could well be that the
> winner is the 7th betting choice or higher.
>
> Below are my knocks against each of the top 6.
> Please note there are certainly things to like
> about each of them as well, I am only highlighting
> the issues here that I think makes them play
> against if the odds shake out consistent with
> where they are now.
>
> 1) I Want Revenge - The knock here is obivious,
> he\'s headed in the wrong direction. This is the
> same argument around Big Brown after last year\'s
> Preakness. Just like BB\'s Preakness win, IWR\'s
> Wood was visually very impressive which masks the
> fact that the numbers suggest the big gotham took
> alot out of the horse and he won the wood while
> bouncing and he will bounce even farther and
> harder in the derby. (full disclosure that I have
> a 10-1 pool 2 futures bet on him which will cover
> my derby wagers so I am even more inclined to
> throw him out given that insurance policy)
>
> 2) Quality Road - The quarter crack and the same
> bounce issue as IWR. I love the horse but he did
> go in the wrong direction in the Fla Derby which I
> would have been more willing to try to overlook if
> not for the foot issue. They are now trying to
> baby him into the Derby with an easy breeze last
> weekend and only 1 more scheduled breeze (I think
> I read that, someone please correct me if I am
> wrong). Anyway, unless he puts up a huge work
> between now and the Derby, he\'s a throwout as a
> horse that hasn\'t been able to train agressively
> with only 1 two turn race as a prep.
>
> 3) Dunkirk - looks good on the sheet figs/pattern
> (the best of anyone I believe on the pure
> numbers/pattern) but he was so wasted after the
> Fla Derby and he couldn\'t get past Quality Road in
> the Stretch. Plus, he will have to go very wide
> coming from way back and there is no longer any
> kind of speed dual scenario to set up closers like
> there might have been before Pamplemouse and Old
> Fashioned got hurt. Don\'t like him on top, maybe
> for a piece underneath, ala Curlin.
>
> 4) Friesan Fire - anothoer one with obvious
> knocks, 7 week layoff, no prep beyond 1 1/16th and
> hasn\'t ever run a very fast number. Also, 25 days
> between race and first work back. Lots to dislike
> here at single digit odds.
>
> 5) Pioneer of the Nile - never been on the dirt,
> his first trainer has publicly said that he moves
> better on the poly and turf than on the dirt, he
> has never run fast enough and he his jockey seems
> like he is passing on him to get on another mount.
> No thanks for me. Reminds me too much of Col
> John last year. If he works big at CD, he will be
> 5 or 6 to 1 which is terrible value.
>
> 6) Chocolate Candy - my pick for this year\'s wise
> guy horse. Hasn\'t run fast enough to win this and
> will be coming from out of it with little pace to
> close into. No thanks for me here either.
>
> To me, horses like Papa Clem, Regal Ransom and
> Desert Party all look just as interesting as the
> top 6 but will be much much better prices. Each
> of these 3 has knocks against them as well but I
> should be getting at least 20 to 1 on these as
> opposed to single digits on the top 6.
You really can\'t select DP at greater than 20-1 and toss CC at less than 10-1 when they closed at 16-1 and 18-1 respectively. And you\'re tossing Pioneer at 5-1 when he closed at 9-1 with Garrett looking like the jock.
> One thing to keep in mind is that every derby
> winner since Smarty has posted a monster bullet
> work between their last prep and the Derby. No
> big work, not on my ticket. For the last two
> years, each of the top 2 have fit that bill.
> Given how these horses are babied into the races
> now, I think we need that big work as a baromoter
> of who is fit enough to do it.
>
> Thoughts?
How about Giant Oak? Has a decent figure over the track, and what could be a solid pattern after last. Don\'t know about that Crafty Prospector on bottom though.
thanks for the thoughts.
In terms of POTN, I said IF he works big, he would be 5-1. Just like Col John, if people like how he breezes, his odds will come way down.
I also said Choc Candy would be the wise guy worse so I think he will be lower than where he closed in the FP #3.
Not sure where DP will go off off but I think at least 15-1 which would be good value.
Giant Oak doesn\'t do much for me as I hated the way he ran in the stretch in the Illinois Derby but I will take another look, good thought.
thanks
Larry Jones has a one mile breeze scheduled for Saturday. Same pattern as Hard Spun.
Yeah, GO\'s stretch run wasn\'t too pretty. That\'s where the Crafty Prospector might come in.
Plenty of debate over the eventual odds of the Cal horses. Pioneer can\'t take Col John type money without Gomez though, especially after Col John\'s run last year. Don\'t know what the price on DP is going to be, since the people who know best don\'t bet (allegedly).
Papa Clem is interesting. Ridden to get the lead last, but wound up 4th three wide. How many horses wind up finishing strong after that kind of start? Is he another Gayego though?
One of the skills necessary to cash tickets is understanding which of the top betting selections to leave in.
Be careful of being totally submissive of the betting publics selection based, in part, on the following recent history. Since 2001 a little more than 4 entries per year or 23.4% of the total starters have been less than 10 - 1 but never has a trifecta come home without at least one of these runners. As a matter of fact 45.8% of the top three over these 8 eight years has been a single digit on the tote board and 3 of 8 favorites (a higher than average 37.5%) have won with another (Empire Maker) second. Even 2005 with the 14th betting fav over the 20th still had the second fav 9/2 Afleet Alex rounding out the tri (for a six figure number as I recall).
Last year the seminar directed me to key DC and EB in the exotics and I cashed a decent ticket on the day because I also happened to include BB in the process.
If my memory serves me well it was said that Thunder Gulch couldn\'t pass a claiming horse in his pre Derby work out.--Jett
Correct. He worked Hard Spun at Kee on Apr 23 1m, and then on Apr 30 at Churchill a bullet 5f in 57.3 1/26 works.
Covelj,
A few comments:
1. The biggest disagreement I have with what you wrote is you saying Chocolate Candy is not fast enough to win. If there is one thing TG users should have learned in the past year or so is that translating synthetic numbers to dirt numbers does not work. Chocolate Candy is faster than I Want Revenge was on synthetic, Chocolate Candy is faster than Papa Clem was on synthetic. I Want Revenge is certainly fast enough to win (if he runs his race, which is a big question), and I am betting that when we see the Papa Clem number off his 3w/4w trip in the Arkansas Derby that he is also fast enough to win. Chocolate Candy, if he handles the dirt, is plenty fast enough to win.
2. I think your first point on Dunkirk is more important than your conclusion. Assuming Haskin is correct when he quotes Thorograph as having DUnkirk pairing up negative 3/4s in the Florida Derby, then Dunkirk is looking awfully good on the numbers. With 5 weeks rest and a solid test in the Florida Derby under his belt, he may be the \"dirt\" contender most likely to run a new top. (synthetic contenders running new \"dirt tops\" aside). I don\'t think the price will be great on Dunkirk, but he looks very solid to me.
3. Don\'t know what numbers you are looking at that make Desert Party look interesting, but I thought I saw his sheet before the UAE derby with a bunch of 4\'s and 5\'s, but I could be mistaken.
4. Jerry claims Regal Ransom is interesting, I guess i will have to see his sheet. He looked completely exhausted at the end of the UAE Derby at 1 1/8th over a track that historically plays shorter the actual distances. E.g. Captain Steve got 1 1/4 over it, plus a few other distance challenged horses could get longer distances there. I don\'t see Regal Ransom doing anything other than setting the pace until Johhny V. says \"go\" and Quality Road passes him.
5. Papa Clem will be sitting on a huge \"jump up\" new top after the Arkansas Derby. I know the price will be juicy, but hard to like him back in 3 weeks after the big top.
6. Agree with Michael D\'s points about your odds. I think you are off there, but only time will tell. I don\'t care how fast Pioneer of the Nile works out, I don\'t see 5-1 on him. Can\'t compare him to Colonel John. Completely different class of 3 year olds. Last year\'s class was awful. The public had to bet on somebody besides Big Brown. This year\'s class has some quality horses that will draw attention, especially the big 3 of I Want Revenge, Quality Road and Dunkirk. Pioneer won\'t be shorter than any of them, which means he isn\'t going to be 5-1.
7. I have posted a lot already on IWR and QR, and I have trouble being partial on them because I have overlaid futures odds on horses that will be pretty short in the Derby. I agree they look like \"bounce\" lines without looking at the intangibles and \"trusting your eyes\". I will also say that \"trusting my eyes\" was a bad idea when I watched Big Brown win the Preakness \"for fun\" and stopped betting against him in the Belmont. We all know how that worked out. But I will \"trust my eyes\" again and say that I would dismiss the backward move for I Want Revenge, to a degree, and upgrade the Quality Road figure as well. IWR had no chance to run in the Wood until halfway through the stretch. When he had an opening, he shot through and opened up 1 1/2 lengths on the field, under a hand ride. I was struggling after the Gotham of trying to guess at what kind of race I would want for IWR in the Wood to set him up for the Derby. A pairup would have been too fast. A standard regression would be a bad sign. What happened was about as perfect as one could hope for. A regression that was mostly caused by the bad start and patient ride that Talamo gave him. He ran hard for 1/8 of a mile or so. Giving him more time to recover for the Derby. Call it a backward move, I say he got some schooling on how to handle crowded spots and sit further back off the pace. As for Quality Road, I upgrade the figure for the way he \"re-broke\" when challenged. Not many horses can do that after pressing the pace the way he did. I am not a pace handicapper and I certainly am glad that Class Handicapper is not to expound endlessly on pace, but I give it a little weight and some of my \"pace handicaping\" friends say that Quality Road is an absolute standout on pace figures. His ability to press a strong pace then still kick at the end is matched by nobody in the field. The trick will be to do it at 1 1/4, over a track that may not favor speed, the way the GP track did. But with several key \"pace\" scratches, it looks like QR may get a nice trip stalking the longshot Regal Ransom.
Jimbo,
thanks for the thoughts.
1) In terms of Chocolate Candy, even if he jumps up syn to dirt, he has to circle the field into what looks to be a moderate pace. He better jump up massively in order to make noise. If he was good enough, he would have caught Pioneer of the Nile in the stretch of the Santa Anita Derby. I just don\'t see him fitting and again, he seems like the wise guy play to me so his odds will be far too low given the concerns above
2) In terms of quality road, if he didn\'t have the quarter crack and he was being trained more aggressively, he would be my pick for the reasons you stated but I think there is alot of risk to him hanging in the stretch and not showing the same explosive restart that he did in the Fla Derby because it will be tough for him to be fit enough given the limited 2 turn experience and the limited works (if he really is to only have 1 more).
3) I agree with you that Dunkirk is the dirt horse most likely to run his race and could therefore be the key to the race.
4) On IWR, as I argued last year before Big Brown\'s Belmont, there was no \"good\" number for him to run in the preakness and there was no \"good\" number for IWR in the Wood. Once you put in the huge effort and come back quickly off of the huge number, the damage is done. No one would ever do it but the right thing to do would have been to train him up to the Derby (which we would all be criticizing) or skip the Derby all together. Again, I recognize what I am suggesting no one would ever do but once that big effort is put in, your options become very limited.
thanks again for the thoughts. going to be a fun 17 days!
Covelj,
It will be interesting. Just the huge disparity of opinion on this board, most of using TG as our main handicapping tool, will tell you interesting of a betting proposition this derby will be.
It is completely irrelevant that Chocolate Candy couldn\'t catch Pioneer of the Nile on pro-ride crap in the SA Derby. That fact is useless as far as I am concerned. Way too many examples of synthetic form/results being meaningless on dirt. If CC is better bred/suited for dirt than POTN, he will beat him in kentucky. And i think he is.
As for IWR. Synthetics skew his form as well. Wow, huge 9 point new top in the Gotham. Must bounce next time or at least regress the next race, then fall apart in the Derby. Yes, if the 9 point new top was on the same surface as his old top, I would agree. I say the 9 point new top is meaningless again. The Gotham was his first dirt race and his synthetic tops previously don\'t matter. Why is it so much harder for people/handicappers to get used to treating synthetics and dirt differently, when we have been doing it with turf and dirt for years. Did anybody read Curlin dropping off 3 or 4 points first time turf as a sign he was \"falling apart\"? Nope. He was not a turf horse. He returned to dirt and ran back to his dirt numbers. If his career had started turf and he had been running 1\'s and 2\'s for a year, which was about his limit on turf, then he went to the dirt and ran negative 3, we would have all called him a \"huge jump up\" and bet against. Nope. Different surface. Not saying IWR is a Curlin, but who knows. The negative 3.5 is as fast as most of Curlin\'s best races.
Covelj70,
Interesting points and given the potential lack of value for
your 1-5,we couldn\'t hope for better.One of your also elgibles
is somewhat inspiring,although I must disagree with #6.
Fresh horse with great spacing from 1 of only four guys in the
5,000 club.Please clarify,but hasn\'t CC run a deuce on the poly?
What are the chances this one freaks going long on the dirt
similar to Bayshore winner has freaked going short.I love the
breeding and double digit value considering the lesser breds from poly
to dirt with bigger move ups.
with respect and best of luck,
mjs
Jimbo66,
Giving respect to your point with Curlin as your example I
think you\'re dead on however giving respect to the pattern
of a horse\'s effort on any surface for that matter I think
IWR is heading in the wrong direction with the wrong navigator.
respectfully,
mjs
Jimbo makes the good point that maybe the 9 point jump for IWR in the Gotham was not as big a jump as it would appear. However, there are two ways to look at the jump -- first, a horse moving from one established level to new territory (this is the issue when the Gotham is characterized as a 9 point jump); Second, in absolute terms, a young 3 yo running too fast needs time to recuperate. On this basis, it is not as important what the horse\'s established level was. Basically, it is the idea that a horse that runs too fast early in its 3 yo career needs to recuperate from that before it can get back to it.
The problem is that some occaisonal 3 yo\'s have handled the big number for a short period of time but most do not. To me, the obvious ones that handled it for long enough were Big Brown and Smarty Jones. The obvious ones that did not handle it were horses like Bellamy Road and Sinister Minister. The study that has been exhibited on this site before has indicated that for the most part, an early three year old running a huge fig is not going to come back anywhere near it by Derby time, so the prejudice needs to be that the horse will be hindered by the effort.
What i am trying to figure out is whether there is some reason that IWR should be considered in the exceptional category. So far, i have not come up with it and i tend towards feeling comfortable throwing him out of my superfecta entirely. However, my mind is still open and still exploring it all.
\"I agree with you that Dunkirk is the dirt horse most likely to run his race and could therefore be the key to the race\"
Cov/Jim
Great game with the differing opinions. Dunkirk is THE wise guy horse around NY.My toss off his general lack of foundation,last gut wrencher (following a 9+ point forward move) and lack of tactical speed.He has no chance if he draws poorly,imo.
Lots of ink for the phony wide fig\'d CC who got waxed by the,ahem, \"slower\" POTN who raced completely out of his comfort zone.Probably CC received a comparable fig to POTN,not even close who was best, all racing things considered.Keep reading about the breeding factor re transfer of form from the garbage synths to dirt.Think it\'s still a little early for hard conclusions.
Mike
Socalman2,
Great point. And I agree 100%. Whether you consider the 9 point move up legitimately a 9 point move up or not (I say \"not\"), you still have the problem of having a horse running a negative 3 in April of his 3 year old season. For this reason, I would agree that it is tough to take 4-1 on IWR and he is a good \"bet against\" (at those odds).
The number of horses that get to that level and can duplicate it in the derby are few. The best year I can think of for exemplifying this was the year that Bellamy Road had a negative 5, Bandini had a negative 3, Afleet Alex had a negative 2 and Greeley\'s Galaxy had a negative 2. None repeated in the Derby.
However, it isn\'t impossible, as we know that Big Brown and Smarty Jones did do it. And Afleet came back and did it in the Preakness and Belmont. You are basically betting and asking the question \"Is I Want Revenge\" as good as Big Brown or Smarty Jones\". Maybe, maybe not. What are the true odds on that question? 4-1 is probably not enough.
To your point about \"is IWR exceptional\" I would have to say yes based on the case evidence. He\'s proven to be very fast and he\'s also proven he can overcome traffic and hard bumps. What other questions would you have other than \"can he do it again?\" Lately, the last 5 years or so, 3YO\'s have been \"doing it again\" in the big race. War Emblem \"did it again\" in \'02, SMarty in \'06, and BB last year. That\'s a decent sample.
Talamo switched IWR off nicely down the backside in the Wood - a great sign for a young colt IMO. The effort was a backwards move but the performance was useful in proving his mettle. If he trains well over the CD strip and appears bright and healthy in his works, he\'s a must-use for me at 4-1. I\'ve taken the Derby chaulk the last two years and with the help of the TG seminar in picking exotic contenders, I have made a lot of money in the Derby. Enough to pay off all my debts!
I don\'t like betting chaulk but I will use this one aggressively if he acts healthy and happy pre race. Blend him with legit price horses and it might just work out well. It might not too. I\'m OK with either outcome.
covelj70 mentioned it earlier, commenting on JB\'s comment that \"something\" always happens after young 3 year olds run that fast too soon and the sample in the archives prove it out. As it relates to I Want Revenge, maybe the stumble is just the beginning and the weak field made his win look better than it really was.
The same goes for Quality Road. Perhaps the quarter crack is just the beginning. Taking into account how the track was playing and where the main contender had to come from to get into contention, perhaps made the win look better than it was.
There is a ringing in my ear saying the numbers are the numbers regardless of how good they looked earning them. An off is an off, right?
Jimbo-- regarding the surface switch thing, as pointed out here before, most of the ones that jumped up going to dirt only ran that well once.
SJ had a big figure as a 2yo (as does QR). Big Brown did not, but he went after that to a move-up guy, which may have altered the equation. One would think they will be all over Mullins at CD. If not, those guys really shouldn\'t be running a racetrack.
Having said all that, wouldn\'t mind being where you are with 55-1 in the futures. Makes it a lot easier to bet the race.
First two in Dubai were 15 clear, moved forward a lot.
Final pre-Derby package out later today.
Horses stumble at the break and get quarter cracks for reasons other than the fact they have recently run fast.
A relative newcomer to the Derby scene in 07, Jones was criticized by many leading up to the race for his handling of Hard Spun, for the spacing of his preps with the 5 week break into the derby, for not running in the paceless Blue Grass, for his \"too fast\" last work. The end result was a bang-up race, a 2 3/4 new top at CD, a rare result (for horses whose names don\'t end with the letter o).
I\'m not too quick to assume the 7 weeks off is a negative as opposed to a positive factor here. Same thing goes for getting the 10 furlongs. Consider the 06 three year old champ was another AP Indy who had nothing over a mile heading into the Preakness, and the rest was history.
I see the burning question as whether the move forward in his last was legitimate or strictly due to the slop, as AP Indy\'s often freak on off tracks. Does he run back to his Risen Star on a fast CD strip? Another X factor in the mix for a main contender. With the possibility that the LA Derby # is legit, and given that with his style and a decent post he can maybe work out his own lucky trip, he\'s a tough toss for a trainer who\'s done a great job here the past two years with the two placings.
Another one in here with an expected price that seems to make him too short to key, yet no easy throw out.
flushedstraight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> A relative newcomer to the Derby scene in 07,
> Jones was criticized by many leading up to the
> race for his handling of Hard Spun, for the
> spacing of his preps with the 5 week break into
> the derby, for not running in the paceless Blue
> Grass, for his \"too fast\" last work. The end
> result was a bang-up race, a 2 3/4 new top at CD,
> a rare result (for horses whose names don\'t end
> with the letter o).
>
> I\'m not too quick to assume the 7 weeks off is a
> negative as opposed to a positive factor here.
> Same thing goes for getting the 10 furlongs.
> Consider the 06 three year old champ was another
> AP Indy who had nothing over a mile heading into
> the Preakness, and the rest was history.
>
> I see the burning question as whether the move
> forward in his last was legitimate or strictly due
> to the slop, as AP Indy\'s often freak on off
> tracks. Does he run back to his Risen Star on a
> fast CD strip? Another X factor in the mix for a
> main contender. With the possibility that the LA
> Derby # is legit, and given that with his style
> and a decent post he can maybe work out his own
> lucky trip, he\'s a tough toss for a trainer who\'s
> done a great job here the past two years with the
> two placings.
>
> Another one in here with an expected price that
> seems to make him too short to key, yet no easy
> throw out.
The best case for Friesan is Hard Spun and 8Belles coming in 2nd. Jones knows how to get them to run well on the big day. As for the odds, it\'s now looking like 7-2 or 4-1 on IWR, 5 or 6-1 on QR, 7-1 on Dunk, 8 or 9-1 on FF, 11-1 on Pioneer, 18-1 on CC, and 20-1 on PC. If you like FF, I certainly wouldn\'t let 8-1 or 9-1 stand in your way.
With Mafaaz now out, if Char Man doesn\'t go, Pletcher might have the option of running speedball Join In The Dance. If that one goes, and if Regal Ransom runs, the pace is going to be strong.