Mike Smith named to ride Chocolate Candy in the Derby.
smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mike Smith named to ride Chocolate Candy in the
> Derby.
That is terrible news. I really liked this horse and was hoping that he could work out a decent trip. Smith guarantees that this horse will lose all chance because of the super wide swooping move. Oy.
Denis of Cork 1w1w from the 16 hole.
Street Sense 1w1w
Beethoven is out.Mcpeak ruined TGjojo.Borel needs a Derby mount.
Lots of ink for the one paced,wide running CC who has really never ran a race as fast as POTN.He beat CC while kinda rank and running out of his preferred style.
POTN has much more quickness/explosiveness than CC.Only big question with POTN is if he will handle the dirt at all.Don\'t think he\'ll pull in the derby, he\'s done that in his last two because he was very sharp and the paces were very slow.
His slow figs will make him a big price and if he works well at CD, he\'s not a toss imo.Hard to ignore Mr.Mott\'s comments though about this horse being more turf/synth.
Mike
You are going to get slapped by P-Dub on these anti-Mike Smith comments.
I have to agree though. He rides like a \"family man\", as they say....
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Lots of ink for the one paced,wide running CC who
> has really never ran a race as fast as POTN.He
> beat CC while kinda rank and running out of his
> preferred style.
>
> POTN has much more quickness/explosiveness than
> CC.Only big question with POTN is if he will
> handle the dirt at all.Don\'t think he\'ll pull in
> the derby, he\'s done that in his last two because
> he was very sharp and the paces were very slow.
>
> His slow figs will make him a big price and if he
> works well at CD, he\'s not a toss imo.Hard to
> ignore Mr.Mott\'s comments though about this horse
> being more turf/synth.
>
>
> Mike
Mike,
Last year\'s SA Derby winner had one of the most impressive Derby works in recent memory, and wound up eating a lot of bad money.
I\'ll have to re-examine the colt though, because this looks like the anti-wiseguy horse so far, and the odds are likely to drift up. It\'s one thing tossing him at 6-1, another at 10-1 or higher.
Michael everything we say now is wait-and-see.
But if this horse gets there early and begins training over the CD strip, knowing the Trainer, there will be quick works and not much else for the general media and watching public to talk about.
Post Edited
Indian Express trained by Baffert in 2003 went off at $10.80 on the dollar and did not have a quarter of the resume this horse has. Countering that at the time Baffert had just won 3 Derbies in the previous say six years so people were a little leary about leaving him out.
If Baffert stays west and trains over the synthetic, ships in at the last minute, remains quiet (not that I am encouraging that), loses Gomez, then you might see 12-1.
Maybe......
Mike D,
Agree and I would think that Gomez off POTN(probably)will add a point or two.Baffy will wing this one for sure in the coming weeks and it will be interesting to see how he moves over the dirt surface.
The other issue for synth runners is the very different kick back that they will experience for the first time.Some horses do not run through kickback very well the first time or two.
Most interesting derby in a while with the top three(IWR,QR,DUNKIRK) all coming in looking somewhat bouncy imo.
Good luck
Mike
A recent trip to SoCal convinced me, beyond all doubt, that Mike Smith is a terribly overrated rider. He regularly requires his mount to spot the field 4-6 lengths in ground loss. He doesn\'t ride to win, that\'s for sure.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You are going to get slapped by P-Dub on these
> anti-Mike Smith comments.
>
> I have to agree though. He rides like a \"family
> man\", as they say....
NAh, although it only took 1 post to get to the \" Wide Smith\" responses. You guys probably complain Prince Fielder strikes out too much.
We\'ve gone over this before, no need to defend a HOF rider with the second most BC wins in history because a few people still want to jump on this whole wide thing. Its actually amusing.
But you will agree his, \"Go to Central Avenue and then turn 180 degrees left\" trip on Praire Bayou did cost the horse that particular Derby?
Silver, when I leave my house I find that \"180 degrees left\" turns are - in fact - the fastest way home.
He\'s not a rider that I won\'t use on a marginal contender, but he\'s definitely not a rider in which I upgrade a horse\'s chances just because he\'s in the bike.
April has convinced me that Julian Leparoux and Rafael Bejarano are the future.
Maybe.
It just never ends.
\"GIACOMO, in a bit tight between horses at the start, was unhurried while five wide between rivals during the early stages, continued five wide along the backstretch, worked his way forward between horses six wide on the far turn, was in behind a wall of horses entering the upper stretch, was alertly angled eight abreast to secure racing room at the furlong grounds, then closed determinedly under extreme left-handed urging to prevail in the final seventy yards.\"
Just stop already.
Your example is a 20 horse field. Nice.
Did the horse win??
While you TWO pat yourselves on the back.
Either of you see the type of Pace in this Race that Giacomo got that day. Or the type of Deadwood quality that was up front either in that particular Derby????
You better find a trip and if you can\'t find one then you better make one.
P-Dub makes a good point. Is anyone going to cite Smith\'s keen judgement in getting the horse up? If you\'re going to knock him for going wide, you have to say something positive since he must have done SOMETHING right. His horse was clear and he got the job done. Maybe his sense of the pace (1:35 for the mile) was really good and he knew he could get there. There are plenty of jocks that don\'t save an inch of ground that don\'t EVER win the big dances.
My memory of this race, in addition to disgust, was that the runner up, Closing Argument (?), I believe a K. McLaughlin trainee, RAN HIS LUNGS OUT on that pace to finish second. Whatever happened to that horse? I can\'t remember hearing anything about him after that.
HP
Everyone is obsessed about the \"trip\".
Any horse that doesn\'t skim the rail for the entire race is talked about in the following manner:
\"He would have finished (fill in the blank) lengths closer if he wasn\'t x paths wide on the first turn and x paths wide on the far turn.\"
There are inherent problems when you race along the rail and between horses. Traffic, bumping, checking, etc.. which can be just as detrimental to a finishing position as a wider ride.
This fascination with trip can be ridiculous. Its as if this one point is the be all and end all in every race discussed around here. Is it important, of course... to a degree. But there is way too much time spent about trip and wide.
Silver,
Give me examples of horses that have won the Derby because they got the best trip/ride. Give me examples of horses that skimmed the rail, came through inside and won the Derby. I\'m not talking about a few isolated examples, because if this is one of the biggest factors in winning this race there should be many examples of this. I don\'t want to hear how Horse X was much the best so running wide didn\'t matter. No hypotheticals like the earlier example which is just an opinion and not a fact.
HP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
There are plenty of jocks that
> don\'t save an inch of ground that don\'t EVER win
> the big dances.
> HP
Nobody ever mentions this. Excellent point.
Silver,
Give me examples of horses that have won the Derby because they got the best trip/ride.
Street Sense, FuPeg and Ferdinand
How many more u need??
That was the point of my post -- I doubt if Giacomo wins the 2005 Derby without the wide trip.
What good is saving ground if you end up trapped behind a wall of puking speed horses, and can\'t get out?
P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> HP Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> There are plenty of jocks that
> > don\'t save an inch of ground that don\'t EVER
> win
> > the big dances.
>
> > HP
>
> Nobody ever mentions this. Excellent point.
At the tracks in NY we lovingly refer to him as Mike S _ I T ..I think you can figure out the missing letter.
Paul,
I could not agree more that ground loss/saving ground is over rated in certain trips.It cannot be disputed though that the rail is the shortest way home.
Wide Mikey is still a physically strong rider with good power in the lane.I have no hesitation betting him if I think he\'s on the best horse.
Also have to note that the running style of most of his mounts is wide sweep.
Mike
Shouldn\'t this be fairly easy to settle with a little statistical analysis. All you need is the sheets from all the Derby paricipants over the past X years. Then you can count how many took the 1W path, 2W path, etc. Then you can count how many winners there were from each of those paths. And from that you can calculate the Impact Value for each path in the Derby. Like I say, all it takes is a copy of the sheet for every Derby participants in the chosen sample period and somebody with a lot of free time on their hands. Go for it.
Miff,
I can understand taking a stand that Quality Road or I Want Revenge will bounce in the derby. (although I don\'t believe they will - but I won\'t debate that with you here),
But curious why you think Dunkirk looks bouncy? I haven\'t seen the fig he got yet for the Florida Derby, but guessing by the fact that JB said QR moved back a few points, that probably puts Dunkirk around negative 1. That puts him with a small move forward in the Florida Derby, then 5 weeks rest. I think he looks real good. As a guy holding 55-1 and 14-1 on the two likely favorites (IWR and QR), I am definitely concerned that Dunkirk might have the best pattern/sheet coming into the race and frankly is the horse to beat.
Hi Jim,
Ordinarily, I would agree but, imo:
1.Dunkirk has run his last 2 races too fast for a horse with no two year old races and no 3yr foundation to speak of.Remember his first race was a 10.
2.His connections can say what they wish but he was a tired horse after his last,laying in his head check afterwards.
3. I do not like a young horse like him running his heart out, hooking a QR type, getting repulsed while all out and not finishing the last part of that 1/16th very gamely(look at his deep stretch run closely, QR was going away imo)
He\'s very fast and talented but I still believe he is being rushed. Also of note is that this horse was NOT thought of so highly in January and Johnny V via Angel rode a different maiden when Dunkirk debuted.
So there are all my brilliant reasons to knock him.He\'ll probably win by a pole!
Good luck with your play, nice position with 2 very fast ones.
Mike
Concerning point 3, it\'s work noting that Dunkirk passed QR in the gallop-out.
Ajkreider,
I watched the gallop out and agree that technically you are correct that Dunkirk passsed Quality Road on the gallop out. But IMO that would be a great example of a fact that is useless without accurate additional information.
Johnny V. pulled up Quality Road quicker than Gomez did on Dunkirk. On the gallop back to the winner\'s circle Quality Road was full of himself, eerily reminiscent of the way Big Brown was after the Derby. Dunkirk came back blowing like a fat man after a 2 mile run and appeared dull and unenergetic.
I will take the shorter gallop out and fresher looking horse.
There\'s no doubt that Dunkirk was the more tired horse.
I had thought you were making a point about the psychology of a young horse going all out and still getting turned back. That fact that Dunkirk didn\'t shut it down himself after the wire, and got well past QR says he\'s not psychologically worse for the wear by being tested, and losing, to QR.
If that\'s not what you were saying, then it was my misunderstanding. Talk of horse psychology is probably too much anthropomorphizing, anyway.
Aj,
That was Miff on the psychology of a horse getting turned back.
I have trouble with human psychology, let alone horses.....
Agreed that Dunkirk persevered past the wire and came back a more tired horse.
As the race may be shaping up, with several speed horses not running (pamplemouse and Old fashioned), it is starting to look like a little less early speed will be in the race than had been expected. I think this makes Quality Road very tough, if he breaks well from the gate.
Quality Road, sitting second, chasing a hopeless longshot (The dubai winner) is a nice trip.
If Dunkirk did make a small move forward in the Florida Derby, that combined with the impressive acceleration around the turn, make him the most likely winner in my book. That being said, I wouldn\'t take less than 7-1 on him (or for that matter on anyone) in the Derby. Fortunately, they take bets on exotics.
Silver:
I think SS was much the best; the rail skimming Bo-rail ride may have just
padded the margin of victory.
Ferdinand-- The Shoe puts on one of the great Derby rides in history, but even
he admitted that if he didn\'t get through it may have been considered one of
the worst.
I think this is a worthwhile topic to follow more and did an absurdly quick survey in the archives. Here are some random anecdotes I found; would make for interesting debate me thinks --
2008 -- Recapturetheglory ran a better fig than either of Denis of Cork and Tale of Ekati and probably would have broke into the superfecta or trifecta with a slightly better trip. Agree or disagree?
2007 -- Sedgefield was the rail skimmer and completed the Pentafecta (nevermind it still was not created yet) beating the likes of Circular Quay, Tiago, and Any Given Saturday all of whom ran better figs than not only him (Sedgefield) but also Imawildandcrazyguy who clunked into the superfecta over these better efforts. (n.b. Circular Quay actually ran the third best figure in the race behind Street Sense and Hard Spun and a smidgen ahead of Curlin).
2006 -- Bluegrass Cat and Steppenwolfer beat Brother Derek out of the Exacta and the Trifecta even though Bro Derek runs the significantly better fig.
2005 -- Very interesting year. Smith wins his Derby in the same year as a terrible terrible bad rail. Check out the figs of horses that ran in either the one path or the two path. They all ran significantly worse numbers than one would have expected and got the \"X\" designation. One could say that it figures these are the conditions where Smith excels nowadays (I have nothing against the guy -- I only try to predict in a race where his horse is going to be and his current riding tendencies factor into that analysis).
2003 -- Sheets make clear that Empire Maker ran better than Funny Cide but that Funny Cide got the better trip -- agree or disagree?
This one will be painful for TGJB, but according to the sheets, Victory Gallop ran a significantly better figure than Real Quiet but had the worse trip.
Also, query whether Ladies Secret did not get home first due to the 1w 1w and 5 pounds off?
They won because they were the best horse, not because of a spectacular ride.
Fu Peg was the favorite, was 4 wide on the turn, and won by a couple lengths.
Ferdinand was 4 wide on the turn, after straightening out Shoe had 2 choices. Take him outside 2 more paths or dive to the inside and come up an opening along the rail. Ferdinand got the lead inside the 1/8 pole and held that advantage to the wire. He didn\'t come up the rail on the turn, he got the rail well after turning for home. He was the best horse.
Look, rides are important. All I\'m saying is that the \"trip\" is overrated. Find the best horse. The 3 you mentioned would have won regardless of whatever trip you think they may have received. If you can only come up with 3 examples, horses which figure to win anyway, I\'m only suggesting that the trip isn\'t as important as you think.
I was referring to winners, I\'m sure you can find horses that finished ITM that had good trips. You can probably find horses that were 1W or 2W and didn\'t finish so well. Running 1W or 2W does not guarantee a better finish.
Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> That was the point of my post -- I doubt if
> Giacomo wins the 2005 Derby without the wide trip.
Duh, sorry Rick.
> What good is saving ground if you end up trapped
> behind a wall of puking speed horses, and can\'t
> get out?
Thats all I\'m saying.
Richiebee,
Take another watch of that derby. Have to disagree with you. I think if SS had to go wide on the far turn, Hard Spun wins the race. Hard Spun ran a huge race that day. SS beats the rest without the railskimming ride, but I don\'t believe he beats HArd Spun.
AJ,
Gallop outs are over rated. Some horses are very smart and shut down immediately by design, others by exhaustion.
Was not solely referring to any type mental scar for Dunkirk but also that he laid his body out there totally and his body may not have been ready for that taxing an effort.
Don\'t know if that will hurt him but I can\'t see it helping.
Mike
Jim:
It would be hard for me to get behind this theory because I believed that HS
was best suited for shorter distances than those he ran in the Triple Crown
races.
That being said, and contradicting myself--
1) He ran his guts out in all 3 legs of the Crown, and
2) If held out of the Preakness, and ridden properly in the Belmont, he had a
chance to win the 1-1/2 Belmont wire to wire as a fresh horse.
Gotta get back to work, which there is plenty of after a recent spate of
layoffs; if I get laid off in the next round I\'m going to see if JB would be
interested in hiring me as the world\'s oldest (unpaid) summer intern.
Richiebee,
It never pays to debate old news, but my theory is based on math. He won by two lengths with a 1w/1w trip. As a drop to last closer, that is pretty much unheard of that he gets that trip. Give him a standard 2w/3w trip, which is reasonable for a closer in a 20 horse field and he loses.
Good luck with the job and with the job application at Thorograph. I think you have a better shot with a newspaper column though......
Just another testament to what others think about Mike Smith...He lost the mount on Stardom Bound to Gomez according to the Daily News.
I have no problem with Smith, in fact I have cashed a lot with him. Gomez lost the other day because he waited and was wide with Ventura. I never get hung up on jocks,It\'s all about the horse with me. Gomez does loose 75% of the time he mounts. Gomez is in a great situation, he has a great agent and gets mostly ML favorite. IMO, good horses make jocks and trainers look good. The only thing I look as is how hard they ride to the finish and Gomez is very good at that.
Lost Cause Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Just another testament to what others think about
> Mike Smith...He lost the mount on Stardom Bound to
> Gomez according to the Daily News.
Gomez named to ride Stardom Bound in Oaks
IEAH Stables has tabbed Garrett Gomez as the new rider for STARDOM BOUND (Tapit) in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) on May 1. The reigning Eclipse Award-winning jockey will replace Hall of Famer Mike Smith aboard the champion two-year-old filly.
\"This is by no means a firing of Mike Smith,\" IEAH\'s Mike Iavarone said. \"Mike has obviously done a great job on the filly. This is related to the long-term picture in that Mike is committed to Zenyatta (Street Cry [Ire]). With the idea of Stardom Bound eventually meeting up with Zenyatta, we wanted a new rider who get acquainted with Stardom Bound now. There was the opportunity to get Garrett aboard Stardom Bound now, and we\'re grateful for the work Mike has done aboard the filly in the past.\"
Stardom Bound, who sealed championship honors with a 1 1/2-length win in the Breeders\' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), reeled off six straight Grade 1 victories before having her string snapped with a third in the Ashland S. (G1) on April 4. She opened 2009 with victories in the Las Virgenes S. (G1) and Santa Anita Oaks (G1) and will bring a lifetime mark of 8-5-2-1, $1,820,600, into the Kentucky Oaks.
Her ultimate goal is the Breeders\' Cup Ladies Distaff (G1), which will be held at Santa Anita in early November. That is also the goal of unbeaten champion mare Zenyatta.
Way to keep it in perspective Lost. Don\'t let the facts get in the way of the hate.
Good point from Congaree. Seems some jocks get a pass when running wide. Notice how when you\'re on the best horse, most jocks tend to take them wide for a clear run?? Smith is hardly the only one that does this.
P-Dub,
I would make it 50/50 at best that Zenyatta and Stardom Bound meet this year and if they do, it will likely not be until the BC Distaff in November.
Do you really think they are pulling Mike Smith off the horse for the Kentucky oaks in May, so that Garrett Gomez can get used to the horse for a November matchup?
If you do, I have swampland for you.
I am not killing Smith here, just commenting that the IAEH comments don\'t ring true, at least not to any logic I can come up with.
I think the facts (based on TG paths statistics) point to there being truth to the point that SMith rides wider than many of the top name jockeys. I don\'t want that ride on dirt or turf. Poly seems to be ok. And Smith is tough on frontrunners.
As gamblers who bet into pools that pay his salary, we are allowed to root for him, criticize the hell out of him, or worship him.
And you can defend him.
P-Dub, Thanks for the giving observation to my point.
I can see the ride Gomez will give in the Oaks. They break Gomez rides the rail, then swings out at the quarter pole for the run in the lane. Sounds familiar to me.IMO, she may as well be 100-1 she will never beat Rachel on dirt!!
You left out one thing. When she shipped East, Tricky took over the training after getting her from Frankel. If he popped her in the Ashland then the hound dogs would have been after him.
If he pops her now, then it will be because Garrett moved her up.....
Do you really think a jockey will make a horse run faster? I look at it like this, you either have horse or you don\'t. I believe sometimes a better trip, but that horse does not know who is on it. I bet Santa Anita 5 days a week and agree that Gomez always try as hard as he can,but I can assure you that I watch him loose the race 75% of the time. I also believe jocks get on a horse at the perfect time. (example), Zappa and Bel Air sizzle, Gomez was the last to win on them and since neither has won a race. As I said in an earlier post, he is in good hands, with a very smart agent.
congaree1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Do you really think a jockey will make a horse run
> faster?
I always ask the same question to people who ask me this. You have two horses of equal ability at the eight pole in a dead heat driving to the wire. You have a choice between Garrett Gomez and in this case Mike Smith to be on your horse. Who are you choosing? If you say Mike Smith you most likely just lost your money.
This is not a knock against Smith or other jocks, I have no issues with the guy as I\'ve won money with him and lost money with him but I call it like I see it. Better Jocks will give horses a better ride which will make them faster according to the teletimer which is the only thing that will put money in your pocket. An adjustment for a horse being wide that makes him the fastest horse in a race means squat for your pocket if it finished fifth.
Lost Cause Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> congaree1 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Do you really think a jockey will make a horse
> run
> > faster?
>
> I always ask the same question to people who ask
> me this. You have two horses of equal ability at
> the eight pole in a dead heat driving to the wire.
> You have a choice between Garrett Gomez and in
> this case Mike Smith to be on your horse. Who are
> you choosing? If you say Mike Smith you most
> likely just lost your money.
>
> This is not a knock against Smith or other jocks,
> I have no issues with the guy as I\'ve won money
> with him and lost money with him but I call it
> like I see it. Better Jocks will give horses a
> better ride which will make them faster according
> to the teletimer which is the only thing that will
> put money in your pocket. An adjustment for a
> horse being wide that makes him the fastest horse
> in a race means squat for your pocket if it
> finished fifth.
I think it comes down to trip. If I evaluated the race beforehand that the two horses were going to give identical efforts, but I handicapped the race that one was lone speed and the other was likely to be stuck wide on one or two turns, then I would pick the horse that I projected to get the better trip regardless of who the jockey is (i would feel equally comfortable with either jockey with a lone speed horse). In other words, in the hypo given above, with one furlong to go, sometimes I would take Smith and sometimes I would take Gomez and it depends on the running tendencies of the horses and trip expectation for the race in question. If i had projected one horse or the other to give a sufficiently better effort to overcome trip concerns, then with one furlong to go and neutral trips, I would choose the horse I projected the better effort to in that last furlong to move ahead. Again, to me, in that scenario, it is irrelevant who the jockey is.
However, when you factor in trip and how wide you think a horse is going to need to go, you need to consider things like post position, the horse\'s own prior race tendencies, the tendencies of the other horses in the race, and the jockey\'s tendencies. For me, if Smith is on a horse that does not figure to have enough speed to get a good position early and is going to need to rally, then I project Smith to take a little extra ground. Some jockeys, I do not make that little extra ground projection for. Whether or not that makes a difference in who I bet depends on the overall outcome of a lot of different variables in the race. Sometimes I will bet Smith and sometimes I wont. All i care about is trying to make the most accurate trip prediction I can make.
We can go round and round on this.
I will agree that Gomez is arguably the best finishing jockey around. The dude is a great jockey.
But again, how many times do you see the \"best\" horse in a race run off the rail, perhaps wide, because the jock doesn\'t want to get him stopped or hung up in traffic?? Horses that are not front runners often circle the field and close on the outside of horses. Yes, its nice if they can cut the corner and save ground. How many do??
As for Smith, watch his ride on Becrux in that stakes race on the Friday BC undercard and tell me how wide he took that horse?? Calracing.com/replays. He dropped to the rail down the backstretch, cut the corner turning for home, split horses in deep stretch, and scored at 14-1. It was also a 13 horse field. Don\'t tell me the guy can\'t ride or doesn\'t have courage. (Not directed at you Jimbo, a general statement)
Jimbo,
Respect your opinion, but thats all it is. You don\'t know the reason. And yes, there have been other instances where jockeys have been replaced when a conflict may occur in the future. How many more times do you think SB will run this year?? Probably not more than a couple before the BC. If they both remain healthy, they will run at the BC.
And since when is IEAH the experts on evaluating jockeys?? I read nothing but criticism about these guys, but this move confirms Smith isn\'t any good?? C\'mon. Can\'t wait to see the ride Gomez gives her in the Oaks. Appreciate your thoughts, especially your Derby opinions. Good luck this weekend.
PS: I\'m done with defending Smith. Honest. I think JB might tell me to STFU if I don\'t stop. So we\'ll just agree to disagree.
P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> We can go round and round on this.
>
> I will agree that Gomez is arguably the best
> finishing jockey around. The dude is a great
> jockey.
>
> But again, how many times do you see the \"best\"
> horse in a race run off the rail, perhaps wide,
> because the jock doesn\'t want to get him stopped
> or hung up in traffic?? Horses that are not front
> runners often circle the field and close on the
> outside of horses. Yes, its nice if they can cut
> the corner and save ground. How many do??
>
> As for Smith, watch his ride on Becrux in that
> stakes race on the Friday BC undercard and tell me
> how wide he took that horse??
> Calracing.com/replays. He dropped to the rail
> down the backstretch, cut the corner turning for
> home, split horses in deep stretch, and scored at
> 14-1. It was also a 13 horse field. Don\'t tell me
> the guy can\'t ride or doesn\'t have courage. (Not
> directed at you Jimbo, a general statement)
>
> Jimbo,
> Respect your opinion, but thats all it is. You
> don\'t know the reason. And yes, there have been
> other instances where jockeys have been replaced
> when a conflict may occur in the future. How many
> more times do you think SB will run this year??
> Probably not more than a couple before the BC. If
> they both remain healthy, they will run at the BC.
>
>
> And since when is IEAH the experts on evaluating
> jockeys?? I read nothing but criticism about
> these guys, but this move confirms Smith isn\'t any
> good?? C\'mon. Can\'t wait to see the ride Gomez
> gives her in the Oaks. Appreciate your thoughts,
> especially your Derby opinions. Good luck this
> weekend.
>
> PS: I\'m done with defending Smith. Honest. I think
> JB might tell me to STFU if I don\'t stop. So we\'ll
> just agree to disagree.
P-Dub
FWIW, I think the discussion is worthwhile for teasing out important handicapping issues. Putting aside any discussion whatsoever about the merits or demerits of Mr. Smith, do you think post position is important? My main point is that when one handicaps they do two things -- they try to project the effort the horse will run and then they try to determine what that effort will obtain in terms of finish position. For example, I give certain types of horses in outside posts when the gate is near the turn significant demerits that they would need to overcome to be competitive regardless of who is riding. In terms of jockey, everybody is entitled to an opinion as to how to evaluate each one individually, but the question is are there some jockeys that are so bad that demerits are necessary and are there some so good that the horse can be given a benefit? To me, the answer to that is yes. To some people, the answer is no. There is no such thing to me as a jockey I wont bet on. If the horse is good enough (or the competition weak enough), any jockey no matter how bad can win. To me trip is important enough to take into consideration in deciding how to bet -- I know you do not agree, but trip has influenced more payoffs than it has not in the Derby: 2008 -- Recapturetheglory losing to Take of Ekati and Denis of Cork; 2007 Circular Quay and Any Given Saturday losing to Imawildandcrazyguy; 2006 Brother Derek losing to Bluegrass Cat and Steppenwolfer; Empire Maker losing to Funny Cide; Victory Gallop losing to Real Quiet.
Now, I do agree that it is extremely hard to project who will get the good trip and who will get the bad trip before the race. The question then becomes is it worth trying at all or should one just assume that trip is simply just another factor that implies overall randomness. To me, even though it is hard to predict, there are certain things that can be predicted that have an influence and I try to incorporate them. But again, different strokes for different folks. Am curious as to peoples reasons for including trip into handicapping and not including it.
Re Gomez-- in the Blue Grass ROTW I said even he could not overcome the outside post. Wrong. Check out the ride he gave that horse.
At a party after the BC a couple of years ago Ron Anderson said that with Bailey retiring he was looking at taking the book of either Gomez or Dominguez, and asked me my opinion. I didn\'t have one, I hadn\'t been watching close enough, and said so. He obviously had-- those are the two, all right. They win you races you shouldn\'t necessarily win, and almost never cost you races you should win.
Jimbo-- YEP. Dutrow is an awful synth trainer. This will be first time dirt for SB. Which makes her an underlaid horse on figures that will get a much better trip, and may or may not jump up on dirt. Great.
P-Dub,
Fair enough. You are 100% right that I was just giving an opinion that the IAEH words don\'t seem to ring true, and you are also right that their credibility and decision-making has been criticized all over the place, so them switching jockeys doesn\'t mean that Smith is a bad jockey. (and he is a HOFer, which says a lot).
Smith comes across on interviews as one helluva nice guy. GG probably gives Stardom Bound a ride with less ground loss. I promise, no more Mike Smith/ground loss/wide comments from me!!
As for the Oaks, I can\'t believe I am saying this, because I have been a \"Stardom Bound-basher\" who has bet against her in about 7 straight races, but I actually think she has a shot in the Oaks. She seems to have dirt breeding. Why can\'t she \"jump up\" first time dirt, like many others? And if GG gives her a patented \"inside/out\" ride, she can win.
TGJB,
That horse was my key. This was a clinic on how to get from the 11 hole to the rail in 100 yards or less without using your horse.
I think Stardom Bound is done.
I only wish I liked someone other than Rachel Alexandra.