Without knowing all of the sheet numbers for all of the horses, the Blue Grass looks pretty wide open to me. This is a bit like the Ashland last week in that beating the favorite definitely doesn\'t guarentee a cash. There are knocks against all 4 top choices but I have no idea which of the other 7 could get there.
Hold me Back probably isn\'t fully tightened up for the race given that he\'s locked up a spot and he put in a big number (2 on the turfway poly) in his first off a long layoff so that big effort could set him back and again, he\'s probably not cranked for his best. Also, I don\'t think the race shape sets up very well for him as he comes from way off of it in a race with a bunch of closers so unless he gets first jump on them, he will have to go very wide from the 10 post. He may be a total freak and win for fun but there are more than enough issues to try to beat him
Theregoesjojo is fast but is trying poly for the first time and is coming back off a big effort on 2 weeks rest (he may also be going in the wrong direction, can\'t remember his number from the Fla Derby). I think he is a throw out
Charitable Man is trying to go 1 1/8th off of a long layoff on a new surface after having never run more than 7f. He is also likely to get used up early by Pletcher\'s horse. He\'s a terrible play at his ML
Terrain isn\'t likely fully cranked for this given that he has all of the graded earnings he needs and I think Stall is trying to get him to peak 3rd off the layoff for the Derby. He\'s not that fast anyway.
So, I think it\'s conceivable that this is bombs away on Sat (much like last year\'s bluegrass) but I couldn\'t tell you which one of the other 7 might be worth a stab.
thoughts?
covelj70 Wrote:
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> So, I think it\'s conceivable that this is bombs
> away on Sat (much like last year\'s bluegrass) but
> I couldn\'t tell you which one of the other 7 might
> be worth a stab.
>
> thoughts?
Keeneland with the Synthetic Surface and the tendency of the Fans to totally overbet back class (See Stardom Bound and a cast of a thousand others over the years.) has become the longshot players paradise.
Just looked at the BG and agree with some of that, interesting race. Might do it for ROTW, but it would be a lot of work.
Thanks for the ROTW. Wondering if anyone has some advice on wager construction: I followed the chain between Jim and JB about the Ashland, but I\'m not quite sure how to \"spread out\" when trying to beat the chalk AND cash! I see a similar set up for the BG in that there\'s potential for a bomber. So let\'s say I like horse A as the favorite and I like horses X, Y and Z as the \"value\". JB\'s betting guide in the archive indicates that I should box horses X,Y and Z (I think...)Any additional thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!
I\'m going to play devil\'s advocate to the analysis: I think that his 5 2s & 5 3s from last year showed a fast 2yo compared with most of this field. Though one can say he was never an improving horse at 2. However, improvement is expected from 2 to 3 as he should be 1.5 faster on age. I can forgive his 1st start and even give him credit for nearly matching his 2yo top-a possible prelude to an explosive move in his next race (today\'s). Also, his worst figure should come on a wet track as seen on his sire\'s data-he should be a point higher on synthetic than an off track. Forgiving his 3yo debut due to conditioning and the sloppy track, plus getting in tight during the race, I expect a winning race from Terrain today. Also, although I don\'t like Friesan Fire in the Derby due to no mile & 1/8th race & the 7 weeks, I expect the Louisiana Derby to be a key race, producing both the Bluegrass & Ark Derby winners. I\'ll be saving on General Quarters in the Bluegrass because his breeding from TSN\'s sire stats indicate he\'s bred up & down for synthetics & if he runs back to that SF Davis # he\'s a major player today.
As far as the Arkansas Derby, I know Papa Clem\'s #s don\'t come near Old Fashioned\'s, but I don\'t see any classy horses that Old Fashioned has run against while Papa has been competitive against much better foes. I expect a big forward move as he seems to love the Oaklawn racing surface with those workouts.
Too much of a guessing game for me in the Bluegrass.
Playing Flat Out underneath Old Fashioned in the Arkansas.Hot trainer,decent post,and he\'s never gone back.Expecting some improvement today.Win Willy could bounce-and the Lukas horse has moved up a lot this year.
I too think Flat Out can move forward and hit the exacta today. His sire Flatter; a son of AP Indy, placed in 5 of his 6 lifetime starts but his career was cut short by a fractured cannon bone after finishing 3rd to Perfect Drift in the Washington Park Handicap (G2) at Arlington Park. He looks like a colt who is screaming for more distance and should be some value today.
Blue Grass:
My National Double is alive to all four suggested TG ROTW horses for $25.
In the BG, Keying Gen Quarters, boxing with the three other suggested ROTW horses and HMB.
Ark Derby:
I\'m playing a wheel keying the #1 with #2, #3, #8, #9, #10. I\'m expecting OF to be 2nd, 3rd or best case off the board. No way does Terry Thompson win a million dollar race.
Terry Thompson is a previous winner of the AR Derby aboard a 50:1 shot...I believe his name was Cherokee Run. Today - the weather is perfect by the way - he is supposedly teaching OF to rate. The view of Papa Clem from behind could last a while...I expect one of those \"CA poly horses switching to dirt and exploding\" to happen today...Papa Clem and 1st time Dutrow on top for me.
for $1 ticket:
1 = $47.70
2 = $75.00
3 = $28.50
4 = $182.90
5 = $61.30
6 = $35.90
7 = $447.70
8 = $108.90
9 = $27.90
10 = $16.30
11 = $74.30
GQ is clear 9th choice out of 11. Nice work last week and + switch to the unsung Coa. Shrewd claim when plucked for 20K out of his debut last year. Absolute must key here at the odds. Here\'s link to replay of his Sam Davis - to my eyes he looked cool as a cucumber rating inside of horses and just exploded impressively at the 8th pole. This was fastest 2 turn race of anyone in this field, for what that\'s worth, a big step forward for Charitable Man or Patena would surprise no one here though. If GQ takes to the synth today a top 3 finish seems likely with a decent shot at the win. Will use with the other TG freebies and also small saver with the Mott fave and Cali shipper.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/USA/TAM/2009/2/14/10/sam-f-davis-s (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/USA/TAM/2009/2/14/10/sam-f-davis-s)
beginner-- I don\'t think I addressed this situaton in the suggested strategies, just ones where we did not like the favorite or favorites and were playing against them (see \"Stardom Bound\"). The basic play if they were all to go off the morning line here would be a 4 horse box including the one who is going to get bet some-- his price is going to be about right, the value comes from the others. You don\'t want to not have an overlaid exacta or tri because you threw out a horse you like.
In general, I think too many people think only in terms of finding one horse to key, rather than taking a holistic view of the race. The guidelines give some basic ways to execute that approach.
Uncle Buck Wrote:
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> Blue Grass:
> My National Double is alive to all four suggested
> TG ROTW horses for $25.
> In the BG, Keying Gen Quarters, boxing with the
> three other suggested ROTW horses and HMB.
Good job, TGUB.
Told ya so. There have been good prices all day long. Including the BG.
Was going to go with the 1,2,8,11 until I saw the 10 on the track who looked UNBELIEVABLE. Toss of the 2 with the 10 paid ok on the Exacta.
The Tri was Super. Too bad I didn\'t go that deep.
Well, I wasn\'t exactly a hero but cashed the BG exacta by using the 2 closers mentioned in ROTW (Patena, General Quarters) and putting the favorites in despite TG\'s advice.
That\'s pretty funny (as usual) Richie. The #8 was MUCH the best with the 3w trip. Is that owner/trainer the spittin\' image of Charlie\'s grandpa in Willy Wonka or what? What a great story he is. Thanks to TG\'s FREE race of the week (thank you) and a little luck constructing the tickets I got the Golden Ticket! First thing I did was cash out my Youbet account so I\'ll have a loaded gun for May 2nd. Gonna be a great 3 weeks
Buck and flushedstraight - great call on a $30 horse. Keep it up!
Shanno
Good job, and another feather in Smart Strike\'s cap.
Old Fashioned--another over prepped Rick Porter runner.
richiebee Wrote:
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> Shanno
>
> Good job, and another feather in Smart Strike\'s
> cap.
>
> Old Fashioned--another over prepped Rick Porter
> runner.
Does \"over prepped\" mean too many races? He\'s run 3 times in 4 1/2 months? Worked too fast? He\'s had 2 listed breezes since his last race?
He only lost by 1/2 a length, spotting the winner 4 lbs. And he ran a :12.3 final 1/8.
Michael D. Wrote:
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> richiebee Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Shanno
> >
> > Good job, and another feather in Smart Strike\'s
> > cap.
> >
> > Old Fashioned--another over prepped Rick Porter
> > runner.
>
>
> Does \"over prepped\" mean too many races? He\'s run
> 3 times in 4 1/2 months? Worked too fast? He\'s had
> 2 listed breezes since his last race?
>
> He only lost by 1/2 a length, spotting the winner
> 4 lbs. And he ran a :12.3 final 1/8.
Michael:
11/3, 1 mile; 11/29, 1-1/8 mile; 2/16, 1 mile; 3/14, 1-1/16th mile;
4/11, 1-1/8th mile. Another way to look at it, 5 2-turn races in 18 weeks.
How many other Derby preppers have that many miles on the odometer?
OF got passed in the lane at 1-1/16th miles and 1-1/8th miles. 1-1/4 miles?
I hope OF is sound. If he is Porter sends him to Louisville. In my opinion,
OF would be a much better fit at Baltimore.
I\'m not sure miles matter Richie. Races like the 1m Del race or Remson don\'t necessarily take more out of horses than some of the brutally fast sprints other colts have been running in.
Fair enough though - one could argue that better spacing in \'09 might have the colt in a better position to run well in the Derby and Preakness. Straight to Baltimore could very well be the better option at this point.
Someone may have scooped me, but OF is out with injury per DRF article.
Interesting update - was reflecting on yesterday and thinking while watching the race that I didn\'t like how the Horse was moving - except for at the break . OF\'s stride seemed a bit choppy , he was trying hard but really labored throughout . Sad news to hear he\'s out of the running . . .
A shame but I think the horse is safe. He was a dead piece who would have taken some money in the derby.
Mike