DRF reports:
http://www.drf.com/news/article/102771.html
over the top effort from 2 year old or young 3 year old, something comes up....it just never fails.
such ashame, I absolutely loved this horse and he has great connections.
Brutal game.
Have no skin in the game on this one and this still makes me sick
Just a question, does Pletcher\'s complaint about Gulfstream track conditions on Florida Derby day resonate more after this?
Horses can pop a quarter at any time. Racing, training on any surface, hard,cuppy or anywhere in between.Can\'t imagine that his \'over the top\" fig had anything to do with this,a pure random occurrence. Horses at all levels pop quarters every day at every race track.
In any event, a huge knock 4 weeks out.
Mike
Might explain why they called an audible and moved from Palm Meadows for their Pre-Derby training to Belmont.
I have to say I agree with MonmouthGuy.
Patch and go. Will improve odds.
drbillym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Patch and go. Will improve odds.
Not to mention the chances that the thing will blow up on national TV.
Who was the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby with a bar shoe on?
Rick B., your words are highly respected following your double contest win, and I enjoyed your story on how you did it, but when I practiced on standardbreds at Foxboro Raceway 30 years ago, we patched some cracks that resulted in no loss of training or racing. We don\'t know how severe his crack is-hopefully nothing like Big Brown\'s which is a whole other story. Need more info. I remember all the hubbub about Lindy\'s Pride having sore feet/quarter crack 3 days before he won the Hambletonian. Hoping the next few weeks reveal that it is not that serious and I cash at 6-1!
drbillym,
Your experience and knowledge in this matter far outweighs mine. My lack of knowledge regarding both the seriousness of the crack and how it should be treated is why my first thought was and is to err on the side of safety and protect the horse, maybe unnecessarily so.
I hope you are right and the crack is trivial and can be treated successfully in time for the horse to compete in the Ky. Derby with completely healthy feet...but I\'d be lying if I said that I wasn\'t more than a little put off by seeing Quality Road\'s foot problem reduced to an \"improved betting opportunity\"; without the underlying context of knowing your background in the game, my response -- as if you were just some heartless bettor who doesn\'t give a damn if horses fall over and die out on the track -- was ill-advised. I hope you\'ll accept my apology.
Thanks for taking the time to explain things in a cordial manner.
Nice of them to keep the quarter crack quiet for 9 days.Guess those who just bet on QR in the last futures pool are delighted. Nice transparency in the racing game.
Mike
Agreed. This is a question someone should put Steve Crist (who regularly chronicles his betting experiences), just what the hell are your track correspondents doing at their assigned tracks? It seems we often only get reportage on horses who have been having \"problems\" after the race has been run, or in this case after the betting is over. Why aren\'t they closely following the daily doings of the DERBY FAVORITE? And if these guys are betting, and we know they are, there is an conflict of interests issue here also.
I sure hope he gets his chance at the big dance. This is a family that has dedicated their lives to training and racing horses and now have one of the Big Horses for the Big Show.
They have always been honest, classy and never flashy.
Triple Crown training experience may not mean as much as it used to. See John Servis, Barclay Tagg, Trickie Ricky or Tim Ritchie.
Papa Jerkins can certainly be asked if there are any pointers to winning the Big One. But don\'t ask him for directions to CD or nearly any other non-NYRA tracks for that matter. Sky Beauty probably stayed in NY and toted 130 pounds or more, more than most horses run in a year nowadays when he easily could have shipped elsewhere.
But humility seems to be his style. And I bet it is Jimmy\'s also.
I had QR in pool 2, but I decided to hedge & box him with Dunkirk in the exacta in pool 3, because I think they\'re pretty close in talent. If I knew about the quarter crack, my hedge would have been a win bet on Dunkirk instead of the exacta box.
I don\'t understand taking 6-1 a month out on a horse that will be at least 4-1 in the race, since what happened is exactly what can happen (and I brought up with Jimbo the idea that QR specifically had to get there first). They can also draw post 20 (yeah, I know Big Brown did it).
I played nobody in the first 2 pools, 3 horses in the last one, because I saw some horses that looked like contenders that could go off significantly shorter on Derby day. One was Old Fashioned (he\'s likely to win the Aks Derby convincingly, which would probably mean he would go off 6-1 or so in the Derby), one was Charitable Man (doesn\'t figure to go unless he runs well in the Blue Grass, but if he does will be a lot less than 40-1 in the Derby), and the third was Regal Ransom (will be part of an entry in the Derby which will go off a good deal shorter than 40-1). Smaller bets on the last two.
Hey Sliver Crumb:
FOR THE LAST F-----G TIME, THE MAN SPELLS HIS NAME \"JERKENS\".
You can check it on daddy\'s plaque in the Hall of Fame.
Now go back and write us another rhapsody about Donekirk.
I thought 14-1 was good for QR in pool 2 because I figured he\'d win the Florida Derby and be much lower. I wouldn\'t bet him in pool 3. I thought the overlay in pool 3 was Dunkirk because of the doubts about the graded earnings. He should get in because I can\'t see 20 horses who will run in the Derby getting in ahead of him. Unfortunately, I knew nothing of the quarter crack & tried to get the overlay on Dunkirk & went exacta box with QR instead of 12-1 on Dunkirk. I think Dunkirk will be half that in Louisville.
I like your thinking on Charitable Man, I think (pre-sheet look) he has a great shot at the Bluegrass. He already holds a win against Louisiana\'s darling Friesan Fire, albeit at 7f.
Ritchie, take a pill my friend.
My spelling is pretty good its my typing. Nonetheless because I typed the guys name wrong I\'m not gonna take back all of the nice things I said about him. Because it was all the truth.
Funkirk has one thing going for him. He is staying down here until the very last minute. This will help him get more relaxed and settled which is an issue and keep him under the radar a little. No fast local works for him like Colonel John or Ten Most Wanted and then see him bet in half of what he should be.
Pletcher knows this might be the best horse he has ever led over there. But its gonna take a big effort becasue this is a strong year. maybe 87 like. Only time will tell there.
Admit it Ritchie, you read it, liked it and wished you had written it yourself.......
\"My spelling is pretty good its my typing\"...this is better than \"the dog ate my homework\"....
\" I was going to bet that horse, but the dog ate my sheets\"
Silver:
The only thing I am envious about is that you seem to have formed an opinion of
this Derby. Other than rooting for Jimbo I really make this quite wide open and
really have no opinion as of yet.
You mention Servis and Tricky and Tagg and Ritchie (and dont you have to include
Matz?) as trainers who have gotten the job done without having much Derby
experience. Now you added Jimmy Jerk ns to that list.
OK lets see: Smarty, Big Brown, Funny Cide, Afleet Alex and Barbaro. And now
Quality Road.
Of the 6, which runner was NOT an early nominee to the Triple Crown?
That\'s serious Derby aversion.
Look there are trainers like Frankel and Mott and H. Allen Jerk ns who are
absolute greats who have had no success in the Derby. Pletch is still waiting
to pop the cork, but don\'t think he will do it with the lightly raced colt
named after a famous retreat/evacuation.
TGJB,
our bet is on I Want Revenge getting there, not Quality Road. The guy who bet in pool 2, whose message you replied to, got 14-1, not 6-1, on Quality Road.
Not to be contrarian, but I think 40-1 on Charitable Man and 40-1 on Regal Ransom are pretty awful. What are Charitable Man\'s chances of running in the top 2 or so in the Blue Grass? Maybe 1 in 3? He probably needs to do that to encourage the connections to try the Derby. IF he does that, do you really believe he will be 13-1 in the Derby? Nope. Not even close. I bet if he runs, he goes off 40-1. The fact that Regal Ransom will be part of an entry is kind of irrelevant. What are his chances of winning? Chances of running? Sounds like he is 50/50 to run in the derby, as the connections feel they may run in the preakness instead. Do you think he would be less than 20-1 if he was NOT an entry? No way.
Not surprised to hear you took Old Fashioned. As I said before you posted this, I sensed he could be your 2009 version of High Limit. Fast 2 year old, Always looking like he could step forward and develop off the 2 year old top, but never quite does. We\'ll see on Saturday.
Jimbo--
Pretty sure there are absolutely no couplings in the Derby...
Richie,
I thought so too, but look at JB\'s post. He is the one who is saying there will be a coupling. I am not sure.
This is going to be an interesting derby. Lots of angles. Lots of value. No strong favorite. 3 + weeks to go!!!
Silver, it ain\'t your typing, it\'s your brain.
On the keyboard the \"I\" is Cleveland and the \"E\" is Salt Lake City. A typo is hitting the \"W\" instead of the \"E\", not the \"I\".
My quack diagnosis is that, since it sounds sort of like Perkins, you are misspelling it that way. It\'s a sign of something, but I cut class that day so I can\'t say what it is.
I remember the exact same thing (no coupling anymore) but can\'t find the right search string in google to locate proof. Definitely in the Breeder\'s Cup rules that all horses run as separate wagering interests. 99% positive the Derby implemented similar rule a few years back.
No Derby couplings for at least five years.
It paid in the Grindstone year if you liked Editors Note.
Charitable Man can run.Don\'t have the #\'s in front of me,but other than QR and Old Fashioned was there a faster two year old in this Derby bunch? Paired 3\'s in August/Sept sprinting for a son of LDK wanting more ground.Not bad.
\"Silver Crumb\" - LOL
Richie, this derby talk must have you thinking about Chuckles
If I\'m the new \"Chuckles the Clown\" I serve with HONOR.
You guys don\'t get it. I like Dunkirk but things are fluid in the spring and go on a case-by-case basis as races come and go.
You have to love the irony of Alysheba passing away and then we see what we saw with IWR in the Wood. Also IWR is the perfect horse to have as a part-owner IEAH aka SPECTRE.
Baffy is back with a horse sitting on a 4 Point Synthetic-to-Dirt Top.
Larry Jones is back with TWO and the only thing worse than getting run down with a four length lead turning for home like two years ago is what happened last year.You gotta be pulling for him.
We shall see this week what else happens. Dunkirk is light on racing, light on top side stamina pedigree and Super Wide every race. Quality Road has a bloody Quarter Crack and a trainer who needs a Google Map of how to get to CD and then the Triple Crown Trail.
Let\'s make it easy on everybody and have Rachel Alexander declare for the Derby......
Wednesday QR galloped under the eyes of some sharp horsemen,who said he looked fine.If he wears a bar or aluminum pad on the derby day,he\'s a toss for me.24 days out is a very long time.
BLOODHORSE:
"His foot was absolutely ice-cold this morning and I actually patched him today and put a drain in him,\" McKinlay said. \"That thing looked perfect. He went to the track, galloped, came back and looked great. The drain leaves a tunnel right over top of where the crack is and where he bled the other day. So, if there was going to be any blood it would have a channel out. He galloped perfect and there was no blood when he came back. If the foot is cold tomorrow, it's a done deal; it's behind us. I asked Jimmy (trainer Jerkens) what his schedule was and he sounded like he's ready to go. It looks like I got an easy one."
Jimbo--
1-- I know the bet is on IWR. We also discussed QR in an earlier string, I mentioned that Jerkens did not get extended campaigns, was very good off layoffs and second off.
2-- I\'m assuming that common ownership means they get coupled, maybe not.
3-- First I\'m hearing of RR not running in the Derby. That would make a bit of a difference. I was assuming that he was definitely running (earnings and no more preps), and would be coupled. If he does go and is not coupled he will probably still be a little shorter than 40-1, but not enough to make the future bet worthwhile. If he does go I\'ll be talking about him quite a bit in the seminar-- very interesting horse.
4-- 14-1 on QR off the neg 3 is a much better idea than 6-1 after the next race, but 14-1 with a prep to go is still a little shaky.
5-- I have no idea how Charitable Man will handle synthetic Saturday, but I have an awful lot of respect for Kiaran. If he wins or runs a strong second he will be viewed as the now horse with Watchmaker and everyone else playing him to go forward second off a layoff, and will go off maybe 10-1, given his 2yo form (less if he wins, he\'ll be undefeated). And he probably has enough earnings to get in if he doesn\'t handle the synth and they want to run-- and either way he will be going synth to dirt.
6-- I\'m pretty much neutral-plus on Old Fashioned at this point (neutral on pattern pending his next, plus because he\'s fast and has tactical speed) but I\'m negative on the favorites for various reasons (would not have been on QR if the quarter crack thing hadn\'t happened, and if he does put in two strong works and looks okay at CD I\'ll be neutral on him at the price). What I\'m trying to do is to position myself going into betting the race that day.
Here\'s a link that I found:
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/news/2009/04/08/quality-road-gallop-1-38-miles-belmont
I\'m breathing a little easier today. When I put my futures in my goal was to see if I could sit on what I have & limit my Derby betting. After reviewing the final #s, if I have the same opinion as I do now & QR is completely healthy & has proved it in his works, I may not put any more $ into the Derby. Last year I took a stand against Big Brown, but out of fear of him ended up spreading a lot & basically broke even because I had the exacta. I\'m looking to minimize my dollars in and maximize dollars out (aren\'t we all). Right now, if everything stays the same I\'ll get a return of 7, 17 or 20 times my total original investment if I win and or hit the exacta. That\'s enough to let me sit it out any further if I feel I\'ve still got the right horses on May 1st. Otherwise, I\'ll look at DDs P3s & in race exotics.
No coupled entries in the Derby anymore. Every horse is an individual interest