I wonder if Pletcher still wishes he had scratched Dunkirk out of the FD in favor of the Wood. Visually, the most impressive race of the year to me.
While I have no doubt it was visually impressive, my lack of respect for I Want Revenge\'s Derby chances have increased, not decreased by that performance. If Dunkirk had been in the Wood, IWR would have never been able to win after that start like he did against the band of rats he faced yesterday. In fact, the slow start means he expended a lot more energy beating an over-matched group than he would have needed to do under ordinary circumstances. To paraphrase the late Horatio Luro, Mullins may be squeezing the lemon dry too soon. Speaking of Mullins, it\'s deja vu all over again (thanks Yogi). The guy has a great track record getting wins in the last Derby prep-see the Santa Anita Derby 2003-2005. However, he has yet to show he can translate those wins into anything in Louisville. Sure, IWR is in an entirely different sheet # atmosphere than his SA Derby winners, but I still believe Mullins is better at getting his horses ready for the pre-Derby races than the Derby. I\'m also not thrilled with the bi-coastal shuttling of a top Derby contender.
If he thought his horse was going to be running over a safer race track, then I think the answer is obvious.
ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I wonder if Pletcher still wishes he had scratched
> Dunkirk out of the FD in favor of the Wood.
> Visually, the most impressive race of the year to
> me.
Dunk wins this race with his Fla Derby figure. They don\'t take the graded earnings away because the other horse broke poorly and was checked.
If that was his reason, sure. My impression was that he thought the track took away a win, and thus graded earnings - not the safety issue.
When he broke bad I thought of Jerry\'s comments on these boards about horses coming off top efforts having slow starts.
Toppled,
Good luck with that opinion. Take off the shaded glasses, if the wood made you less impressed with the horse. Gimme a break. Spot the field 5 lengths, give away your normal tactical speed running style, get stuck behind a wall of horses, bull your way through, and win for fun.
This is a serious serious race horse. Period. I don\'t care what the figure he got yesterday was.
Michael,
Not so sure about that. While Dunkirk\'s Fla Derby figure was likely better than IWR\'s figure yesterday, he will almost always give away ground loss to a horse like I want revenge, who has more push button speed and the ability to be placed closer to the pace (when he breaks).
Firmturf,
I thought of the same comment from JB about \"things always seem to happen to horses sitting on a \"bounce line\"\", like a stumbling start, But the horse recovered and won the race easily once he got room. IWR\'s sheet will make for a good discussion point going into the derby for the \"purists\" versus the \"intangibles handicappers\". He will have bounced 3 points or so yesterday, and could be sitting on a big \"x\" and thus many will throw him out. But those that \"adjust\" numbers in their minds and look at intangibles, will say it was not a bounce and he showed that he is one helluva race horse in that he can win when things don\'t go his way. Disregard IWR at your own risk. Now, after the fact, we can say he beat a horrible field, but many had Imperial Council in their top 10 or so derby horses, and is not even in the same league as IWR.
Another strong performance by IWR, but against not one \"runner\".His figure and margin of victory will not reflect how superior he was yesterday.I disagree that he had to run hard to make up for the poor break, he \"ran\" maybe the last eighth of a mile.Showed a new dimension eating lots of dirt also.
If Old Fashioned wins big on Sat(he should) and Dunkirk gets in the derby, it will be a great betting race.
Mike
I agree. That was quite a performance by IWR.
Problem is, he\'ll be a short price in 4 weeks, and that makes him tough to accept in what will be a pretty deep Ky. Derby field...even if you are not part of the \"I-hate-Mullins\" and / or \"I-hate-IEAH\" crowds like some here.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> Not so sure about that. While Dunkirk\'s Fla Derby
> figure was likely better than IWR\'s figure
> yesterday, he will almost always give away ground
> loss to a horse like I want revenge, who has more
> push button speed and the ability to be placed
> closer to the pace (when he breaks).
Talamo/IWR vs Gomez/Dunkirk? Dunk will usually lose a few paths in ground, but I wouldn\'t give IWR a huge tactical edge there.
I have nothing against IWR Jim. He looks real. My only problem is betting the horse as the favorite off just one fast win (and the fast win was a perfect trip 1 1/16 over the inner-tube). I certainly wouldn\'t downgrade the horse\'s chances off the courageous win, but I might downgrade his value.
> Firmturf,
>
> I thought of the same comment from JB about
> \"things always seem to happen to horses sitting on
> a \"bounce line\"\", like a stumbling start, But the
> horse recovered and won the race easily once he
> got room. IWR\'s sheet will make for a good
> discussion point going into the derby for the
> \"purists\" versus the \"intangibles handicappers\".
> He will have bounced 3 points or so yesterday, and
> could be sitting on a big \"x\" and thus many will
> throw him out. But those that \"adjust\" numbers in
> their minds and look at intangibles, will say it
> was not a bounce and he showed that he is one
> helluva race horse in that he can win when things
> don\'t go his way. Disregard IWR at your own risk.
> Now, after the fact, we can say he beat a
> horrible field, but many had Imperial Council in
> their top 10 or so derby horses, and is not even
> in the same league as IWR.
I don\'t believe whipping a horse makes them run alot faster but it does have some impact and it\'s worth noting that Talamo never even took the whip out on IWR. We can debate alot about the race, etc and I do believe that quirky things happen to horses that have just put in huge efforts but the fact that he did that without ever even being shown the stick was quite impressive.
It\'s hard for me to differentiate between Quality Road and I Want Revenge on the top of the Derby list as both have run huge figures and then bounced off of them as expected in the next race but what Quality Road did yesterday gives me some pause to just say, \"he\'s headed in the wrong direction\" like I would otherwise be inclined to do.
I think that Win Willy and Old Fashioned represent the value in the Derby Futures Pool 3. Both ran big figures in their last. Old Fashioned reminds me alot of Bluegrass from a few years ago. Once favored then forgotten b/c of a loss only to come back and ruin alot of tickets on Derby Day.
I\'d guess the bounce is more than 3 points. Ignoring the ground IWR lost at the start (I estimate 3 lengths), West Side Bernie and Just a Coincidence have to get about the same figure as I Want Revenge. Hard for me to believe that they both went forward to the \"0\" range and that Atomic Rain also went forward 3 points. On the flip side, the 3yos did go more than a second faster than the older stakes horses (carrying less weight) went in the Excelsior just a half hour earlier (although the crawling pace of the Excelsior may have affected the final time).
Getting IWR an education in eating dirt may have been part of the game plan yesterday. Talamo certainly didn\'t panic when the horse got left, and opted to move up between horses rather than working his way to the outside on the backstretch. The education he got yesterday coupled with ability he showed in the Gotham and down the stretch yesterday (last 1/8th in around 12 seconds) certainly makes him dangerous at Churchill (although I wouldn\'t take 9/2).
I think one of the underrated reasons for 3yos moving up when they shift from synthetic to dirt on the Derby trail is that nature of racing on synthetic forces them to learn as 2yos to relax during a race and sprint home when asked, rather than adopt the go-hard-early style that tends to be favored on dirt. Those early lessons served IWR well yesterday.
If he was only looking for a win and Graded Earnings he would have gone to the ILL Derby
That money was just as green.
Michael,
I agree that taking a short price on I Want Revenge off one fast figure on the inner dirt track is not appealing. But who do you want to make the favorite? There aren\'t too many choices. To me, there is a very short list of horses that could go off favored in the Derby. That list includes I Want Revenge, Quality Road and Dunkirk. I really don\'t care what Old Fashioned does in the Arkansas Derby, he isn\'t going to be favored on DErby day. He has shown too little in the last two races to be favored in the Derby. (not saying he can\'t win the Derby, just that he will have too many detractors who think he is \"distance challenged\". Friesan Fire would have been a candidate to be favored, but not off the 7 weeks rest. Sheet players may like the 7 weeks off, but the general betting publice won\'t. Pioneer of the Nile is not going to be favored off of having never run on dirt.
My guess is that the favorite this year is about 5-1. I Want Revenge, Quality Road and Dunkirk (if he get in) will vie for favoritism. Friesan Fire, Pioneer of the Nile and Old Fashioned (if he wins next week) will be high single digit odds. Double digits on the rest.
I am sitting chilly with 55-1 on IWR and 14-1 on Quality Road, but I will have savers on Dunkirk beating either one, as I believe if he gets in, he will be very tough to handle.
Michael,
Not sure that GG gets off Pioneer of the Nile to ride Dunkirk. My bet would be Baffert demnds the \"commitment\" now, and doesn\'t allow GG to hedge and wait to see if Dunkirk gets in. In that scenario, GG would take the secure mount on a top 5 contender, rather than wait to see if Dunkirk gets in (just a guess)
Jim
Aside from the slow start, it looked like IWR took a pretty good bump mid-stretch. Didn\'t even phase this horse. Very professional looking ride, I don\'t care who was in there.
Hard to believe Gomez gets off of POTN. He\'s a West Coast jockey riding for the leading WC horse for a top WC trainer. I know he rides everywhere but believe he sticks with Baffert.
Derby favorite will be either QR or IWR. Dunkirk will not be favored. I think he\'ll go off higher than you think. Around 10-1.
Yeah, Alan said the same thing before IWR got to the first turn.
The theory in saying this performance is better than it looked (aside from making a mental adjustment for the OP) is that he was saving energy because he didn\'t get to run for most of the race. Take a look at the last 100 yards and tell me whether IWR has a lot of energy left-- is he drawing away from the other two (slow) horses? Looks all out to me.
We\'ll see what the figure is, but I suspect it\'s going to be a pretty good backward move. And I also suspect this colt won\'t come out of this one as good as the last-- for whatever reason, horses coming off lifetime tops often look and act great, but come out of the next race tired, even if they don\'t run nearly as hard (fast).
Jerry
I hear you. And your view on this is not surprising (your buddy len agrees with you as well). When iwr got a hole, he spurted through, opened up 1.5 lengths and held it there under a hand ride. We will see in 4 weeks, but I believe you are going to be wrong on this horse. Imho he runs well in the derby and haa a good shot to win with a trip. I believe as the field currently looks, iwr is one of only about 5 horses that are capable of winning without an aberrational result (see giacomo).
I agree with you about it being around 5, and you\'re right, I\'m not counting IWR, though he obviously has a chance. I think QR\'s 2yo top, extra rest, and second big number (3 out of 4 lifetime) give him a better shot, just between the two favorites.
I make our bet about an even money proposition from here-- how\'s that for taking a stand?
I wonder if Betfair has exchange betting on the show position...
Jimbo:
I\'ll be rooting for you at 55/1.
I want to watch the head on, but I think Stewart Elliot on West Coast Bernie
could have done more raceriding to take away IWR\'s path in the stretch. Of
course this was not an option if WCB was a tired animal at that point.
Looks like a great betting Derby.
Jim,
I\'m excited for you. Win or lose, this next month will be big fun.
I have a knock on every single contender except one.....Friesan Fire. What am I missing?
Seven Week Layoff with an Isolated Top on a Sloppy Track
Need More??
Hard man to impress.
I think the 7 weeks is a positive. Can he be a wet track horse? Absolutely. However, did he not have nice development prior to that #? Is it possible the slop # was part of positive development?
JB,
You are beat on our bet. I am not much of a drinker, I want the right to convert my drink into one of those Carolina Barbecue sandwiches.
Agreed that Quality Road is the stronger of the favorites.
I think the \"five that can win\" are Quality Road, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk,Friesan Fire and Pioneer of the Nile. Forget the rest.
We will see in your seminar what your short list is. Guessing that Pioneer of the Nile is not on your list and Old Fashioned is still lingering on your list. Old Fashioned seems to have the potential to be the \"High Limit\" for this year\'s seminar......
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not sure that GG gets off Pioneer of the Nile to
> ride Dunkirk. My bet would be Baffert demnds the
> \"commitment\" now, and doesn\'t allow GG to hedge
> and wait to see if Dunkirk gets in. In that
> scenario, GG would take the secure mount on a top
> 5 contender, rather than wait to see if Dunkirk
> gets in (just a guess)
>
> Jim
"I haven't even given that any thought," Baffert said when asked if he had Gomez for the Derby.
Ron Anderson dumped the SA Derby winner last year, and he looked stronger than Pioneer. Didn\'t cost Garrett much, as he picked the mount right back up for the Travers, then turned it down again for the BC. I\'ll be surprised if he\'s not on Dunk.
If things hold as they look now, I like QR with the high class cruising speed. Chocolate Candy is a use underneath with the dirt breeding, a possible key at 20-1 if the pace looks to be hot. I like Dunk to be 2nd, 3rd, or 4th best here, and I honestly don\'t know how well IWR is going to run. Friesan needs to be monitored closely.
Friesan,
I think he is a contender, but isn\'t he another \"one figure\" horse (similar to I Want Revenge). I don\'t have a copy of FF\'s sheet, but I don\'t remember a developing line, I thought he had a string of six\'s last year, then a string of 3\'s this year, before the wet track jump up. The secondary top of \"3\" doesn\'t finish in the top half of the field.
I think the only horses that I am aware of that have two solid figures are Quality Road and Dunkirk.
Old Fashioned had the two year old foundation and no development this year. Not sure what figure he would have to run next Saturday for him to look good three weeks later?
I understand why you like the 7 weeks and consider it a positive. One thing worries me though. if you look at this horse\'s dry track races this year, he was pulling early, on the bit, not relaxing. I wouldn\'t call it rank, but let\'s say he was anxious. Watch the replays and judge for yourself. Off the 7 week layoff, that problem would seem to be more likely.
FF has a few more ifs than say a QR. Because of the 7 weeks he will be played by \"Sheet Players\". (See Circular Quay)
The Big Neg # was still on an Off Track. The horses he beat have done little or nothing this spring.
A good spot for an improving horse to find himself.
Firesan Fire ran a 1 in the La Derby. That\'s his top. No big negative numbers. He\'s alot slower than alot of others in the field. I don\'t expect him to jump up to a huge new top in a 20 horse field off off 7 weeks rest to win.
He could run another 1 and be part of the super but I don\'t see him in the mix for the win.
The only horses who have run 0\'s or better so far who will be in the gate are:
Quality Road
I Want Revenge
Dunkirk (who is looking more likely to get in given the repeat winners and the defection of PM this weekend)
Win Willy
and then a few have run 1\'s including,
Desert Party
Old Fashioned
Friesan Fire
I would expect a 0 or 1 negative from Old Fashioned would set him up perfectly into the Derby. He\'s the forgotten horse this year. He and Win Willy could both be interesting.
Dunkirk WILL get in.
I had heard or thought I had heard the La Derby was a Neg #. I guess I heard wrong.
FF is more interesting with that line and the 7 weeks because the odds will be justifiable. 10-1, 12-1 or so vs 6-1 or 7-1 with if the Prep was fast and there was good rest.
OF must deal with QR and QR must deal with OF
This is good for Dunkirk......
Given how much distance he and Giant Oak put on the Illinois Derby field, I would not be surprised if Musket Man joined the \"0 or better\" club yesterday. And he did it running between horses and taking dirt. I keep thinking his Yonaguska breeding is going render him ineffective as the distances get longer, but it hasn\'t happened yet.
Yonaguska out of a Fortunate Prospect mare. I can\'t see how he will get 10 furlongs but in terms of a consistent moving forward line that hasn\'t looked back you must pay attenion to him.
Maybe later for the Ohio or Pennslyvania Derbies he makes more sense but I think I\'m going to have use him in the exotics at least. Yeserday,in response to the pedigree question,his owner said he was a freak.
Maybe he is, it\'s happened before.
I like your bold stand Jimbo. I happen to agree with you 100%. I caught the race online and could barely see it do to poort quality signal but Durkin\'s call was good. Other than Afleet Alex\'s Preakness I would say it\'s one of the top two performances by a 3YO in the last decade. On the other hand, I can\'t help but draw a little comparison to Bellamy Road\'s blockbuster Wood. Who was the last Wood winner to win the Derby anyway? The race has not yielded much in the way of Derby victors this decade but none of that will matter if he holds together.
If he trains well, eats up and is dappled out on May 2nd, you can\'t leave the country\'s fastest 3YO out of the Derby exacata.
TG has been dead on with this horse and he should be a poster boy for how to make money using their figures
I will be the first to attend the Seminar and sit in the front row as that pedigree and in the last, the 4 races in 3 mths or so, kept having me look the other way.
Giant Oak looked aweful in the lane and should not be running in the Derby.
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Dunkirk WILL get in.
What a perfect weekend for him.
> OF must deal with QR and QR must deal with OF
>
> This is good for Dunkirk......
Maybe.Maybe not.The front end is shaping up a lot like 2004 with just two fast horses controlling things.Smarty Jones stalked LionHeart and they finished 1-2.Depends on the jocks.
I think the pace scenario that everyone was freaked out about over the last 2 weeks is off the mark.
There aren\'t alot of need the lead types this year and with Pamplemouse now officially out, that makes this even more the case.
I Want Revenge doesn\'t need the lead as he showed on Saturday.
There are a number of horses who will sit right off the pace including
Old Fashioned
Friesan Fire
Quality Road
Regal Ransom
Charitable Man (if he gets in)
but as of right now, I don\'t see anyone who is going to set a blisstering pace in this thing let alone a bunch of them such that someone way back (ala Dunkirk) is going to get an ideal set up.
Dunkirk has run two 0 negatives which given that he will need to come 9 wide in the Derby with his running style doesn\'t worry me too much.
I am willing to bet the race shapes set this thing up for someone right on the lead or just off of it.
IWR gets a 103 Beyer(little light imo) for the Wood.The pattern guys will be licking their chops at the regression. TG should be in the 0 or neg 1 area, if they agree.Thought that the bad break and little running that IWR did in the Wood may delay the inevitable end of the line that they all suffer sooner or later.I would add that his racing foundation is strong and his previous 6\'s look way too light given his last two.A runner and a derby handful imo, in spite of the pattern he will take into the race.
Pioneer Of The Nile got a 96 Beyer(maybe a TG 2) and this horse will be dismissed by many as too slow.Couple that with Mott\'s comments about this horse wanting grass/synth and maybe not dirt. He\'s a better horse since Baffy got him and his last 2 wins have seen him completely out of his preferred comfort zone(pulling at early paces instead of making one late run)Not tossing until he works ugly on dirt.The big question is what commitment the Great Garret make re Pioneer or Dunkirk. Agent Anderson is a sheet reader who sees the figs and knows Pioneer is slow.
Mike
Jim,
First, I want to wish you the best. Last year, someone on this board made a pretty nice score on this race and maybe now it\'s your turn.
FF\'s anxiety is an issue but I see it as a maturity one. After all, he did settle in behind horses once they hit the backside, took plenty of dirt, and went on to win. He overcame adversity and kept to his task. Now, he had a picture perfect trip in the LA Derby, but he relaxed in the early stages. Was this a sign of a maturing colt or the footing? I feel it\'s a combination of both but I don\'t feel it was ONLY the racetrack.
I think you have to include Chocolate Candy in this discussion as well. I\'m betting he earned just as big a figure as POTN did, and with a better trip and/or more trip trouble for POTN, he could come out the better of the 2. Either way, either of those horses are competitive if the synth to dirt explosion pattern plays itself out.
Halo,
Thanks for the wish of good luck.
You are right. Maturity could be the issue with Friesan Fire. Plus, I have to learn not to underestimate Larry Jones. Seeing him interviewed two years ago the Friday before the derby has cost me a lot of money. Like many TG users, I felt Street Sense was a very likely winner of that derby. I figured Hard Spun one of maybe 3 horses that were likely finish behind him. Then he worked him in like 34 or something a few days before the derby and I saw him interviewed afterwards and he sounded clueless. The southern drawl and \"gosh darn\" type comments made me \"judge a book by its cover\". So I threw Hard Spun out. Last year, I keyed Tale of Ekati and Denis of Cork. 40 to 1 and 28-1. The tough part of the super. The most likely winner won the race and the only horse besides Big Brown with multiple \"fast figures\", Eight Belles, was the 2nd place finisher. I was \"sure\" that she was \"over the top\' and Larry Jones had run her too much and refused to put her on any ticket.
Anyway, have to respect that Jones gets his horses to run. If he thinks 7 weeks rest and no races beyond 1 1/16 for Friesan Fire is the way to go, he is probably right....
I\'m not sure I understand the theory for why you wouldn\'t want to adjust IWR\'s performance for being off slowly. I also don\'t understand why anyone would think he saved energy by being off slowly or by earning a slower figure.
There is a great fallacy in racing.
We do not time individual horses in the time it takes them to run the designated distance. The teletimer starts as soon as the fastest horse out of the gate crosses the beam after the run up. That means the clock has also started on any horse still stuck in the gate or that hasn\'t reached the beam yet even though they will have to run further as a result.
To get an accurate time for each horse at the designated distance, the process would have to be changed so that each horse is clocked from the moment he crosses the beam as an individual. If we did that, a horse that was off slowly like IWR would be clocked in a much faster final time than he received because that\'s how fast he actually ran the 9 furlongs. It would also better represent the amount of energy he used. If you watch the replay, you can estimate how far behind he was when he crossed the beam and translate that into some kind of adjustment.
Of course, there would be difficulties with my proposal (some technical). There is also the issue that most horses are consistently faster or slower out of the gate than others. So as long as there are run ups, we probably want to time them the way we do and only adjust for the aberrations like good gate horses getting off slowly, an especially fast start for a horse that is usually a poor gate horse, and a horse beating the gate.
We put op, op+ etc. next to the figure so you can adjust them yourself if you want to. In this case the right adjustment would be 1 1/2 points, maybe a half a point more.
The reasons that we don\'t adjust the figures themselves are a) trackmen sometimes overestimate the op (the other horses are accelerating at a faster pace for a few strides, it looks worse than it is), and b) horses that are op often do it again, making them sucker plays if you include the op in the figure. We would rather show the net and let the handicapper make his own decision.