There have been an awful lot of horses going synth to dirt in the last few weeks, shipping to stakes all over the world. Some exploded (Well Armed), many ran back exactly or very close to their California figures. Tough to figure.
Just goes to show how difficult this game can be.
And to make matters worse, now we need to figure out the OPPOSITE as many of these dirt horses from GP/FG/AQU now switch to Keeneland.
In the bay shore it will be interesting to see the sheet on mullins\' horse GATO GO WIN, looks several points slower than some, but I\'ve beeb burned before on this, so I may right off the bat deduct 3 and start from there
There are so many factors that can influence how fast a horse runs when it switches surfaces it\'s pretty difficult to isolate cause or state generalities.
I tend to throw out any dirt horses making the switch to synth unless they have a back record of success on either turf or synth or are bred especially well for it.
I tend to upgrade any horses making the switch from synth to dirt unless the pedigree and race record strongly suggests that it\'s a turf horse or the horse in question is a very low quality performer.
I would guess that runforthedoe ran a (2-3 point) top yesterday in the Oaklawn Handicap switching from pro-ride to dirt, and running a similar (albeit wider) late closing race to his last. His previous top was a \"5\" on 3/7 at Santa Anita, which wouldn\'t have been competitive, even against that craptastic field.
Although my head tells me that POTN is too slow, the more horses that move forward from synth to dirt, the more I wonder.
The Oalawn horse was very lightly raced here, and had run well over dirt before. There have been a lot of horses recently that did not move up switching to dirt, and POTN ran worse over Cushion, which is basically dirt.
The big question is why I\'m scooping my own seminar...
Beyer gave It\'s a Bird a 107, which made it the fastest race of the weekend.
Doe was getting 6 pounds and finished 6 lengths behind, 2W4W trip.