so, do we toss QR from the prospective Derby winners? I don\'t really care anything about Pletcher\'s comments one way or the other...but did QR run too fast too soon? If this crop is not that special, then he\'s no Smarty Jones...so what to do with him?
Here\'s the choice I made: When futures pool 2 was open, I thought about Smarty Jones & Big Brown & how these two looked too fast too soon & held up through the Derby. Both times I was afraid to bet them because they had run so fast & could bounce. I decided screw it, the fastest horse won last year & before with Smarty and bet on Quality Road. At 14-1 he was definitely worth it because I feel he\'s 50-50 to win the Derby. So even if he\'s 5-1 on Derby day he\'s worth a bet. My only regret is I didn\'t play an exacta box with Dunkirk, because I think he\'ll get in and the exacta will be QR/D or D/QR. I give the advantage to QR because, like Affirmed (v Alydar) & Sunday Silence (v Easy Goer) before him, he has the ability to get the jump on Dunkirk before the stretch run.
I tossed I Want Revenge because I thought he beat nothing in the Gotham & didn\'t have the foundation for his big move up to carry it through to Kentucky. I felt QR was just a fast horse since his 1st race & had the ability to run negative & hold up, while IWR was more like a jump up and fade after a race or two like Talkin Man did in 1995.
Shanahan,
I would bet dollars to donuts that TGJB\'s seminar will tell you that Quality Road is an underlay and bet against. Assuming TGJB is somewhat in agreement with the beyer figure of 103 and it translates to the -1 or so range on TG, QR will be sitting on 0-2-x. Even if the TG boys decide beyer got the race wrong and QR ran faster, and came close to a pairup, he will be sitting on two very fast races early in his 3 year old year, and would probably be a \"bet against\" at the likely short derby odds of 5-1 or so.
I don\'t know though. As I have posted on this board before, I have a very significant bet on I Want Revenge at 55-1 from pool 1. On the Sunday afternoon of pool 2\'s closing, I decided to order the TG sheets for the derby contenders around 3:00. As I looked them over, it really struck me that Quality Road looked better than I thought. He ran a \"0\" as a 2 year old, then moved to the negative 3 as a 3 year old. That is only 3 points of improvement from 2 to 3, in line with Elusive Quality offspring. The dam side breeding is solid for distance pedigree, as he is a half to Ajina, who won the CCA oaks. Now, with 5 weeks into the derby, I don\'t see why this guy can\'t run back to his negative 3. With his tactical speed he should be able to work out a trip, with some racing luck. With that reburst of speed and acceleration he showed in the Florida derby, I am hardpressed to believe he is distance challenged. Anyway, off his sheet, I ran out and bought some of him at the 14-1 price offered in pool 2. I felt that the two fastest horses in this year\'s crop were I Want Revenge and Quality Road, and having them at 55-1 and 14-1, if they both make the derby, is a bet I can live with, win or lose.
That said, if QR goes off the favorite, I am not sure the value is there. He will be pushed harder, earlier in the race in the derby, than he was in the Florida Derby. Tough call in that he is a very fast horse, buy may be an undelay.
Toppled,
Respect your enthusiasm, as I like the horse too, but Quality Road is far from 50/50 to win the derby!!! He is fast, fit, and well rested going in, but this is too fast of a crop for him to be 50/50. Not sure why you think this year\'s crop is nothing special. i actually believe the figures are showing this year\'s crop to be fast. Show me another year where two 3 year olds have negative 3 figures, BEFORE the last round of preps? The last year where we had a number of fast horses AFTER the 3rd round of preps was the Bellamy Road year, where he had the negative 5, Bandini had negative 3, Afleet Alex had negative 2 or so, and the winner of the Illinois derby had a negative 2 or so (can\'t remember his name).
This group is pretty fast.
Jimbo-- to say nothing of Dutrow\'s horse, who ran neg 4 and maybe did it again, I haven\'t done the day yet. And Big Drama...
I basically agree with what you and Toppled say and that QR is more likely to hold together than IWR. At the prices you guys have them I don\'t have a problem with the bets. Assuming no major developments, I would neither bet on QR at 5-1 or consider him a big bet against. He does have to get there yet-- 5 weeks helps, but fast horses often don\'t hold together, and Jerkens\' horses tend not to run extended campaigns. He\'s very good first and second off layoffs.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The last
> year where we had a number of fast horses AFTER
> the 3rd round of preps was the Bellamy Road year,
> where he had the negative 5, Bandini had negative
> 3, Afleet Alex had negative 2 or so, and the
> winner of the Illinois derby had a negative 2 or
> so (can\'t remember his name).
Sweetnorthernsaint
Afleet Alex was the only one who went on out of that bunch. He had a good foundation at Two, the others did not and paid the price at Three.
Wrong year Charm.
Greeley\'s Galaxy.
How did he do in the Derby and after that number?
11th
GREELEY\'S GALAXY was pinched back in tight after a tardy start, quickly was angled in to race four abreast, came a bit wider on the far turn to commence a sweeping bid, reached contention when straightened for the drive and lacked a further account.